WWhat a Normal, Boring, Everyday Vet Clinic - Game Thread

[WildZoo]

Based on lotf's info, game started with 6 non-villagers. We know there was potential for at least 1 conversion, 7 total non-villagers (I'm going to look at this . 2 are dead. 1 is cdo. That leaves 4, and lotf said we only have 3 wolves left. I'm thinking teep counts as one of the non-villagers. If he doesn't and, for instance, GB is chaos...things get really messy and make my brain hurt lol


7 villagers
3 wolves
1 neutral
A - We lynch GB today, if she's a wolf as described, it becomes 7:2, wolves kill one overnight, we start tomorrow (D8) at 6:2 and there are no more multikill nights. In this scenario I think it is unlikely sp is also a wolf, because they would have thrown their extra kill under the bus for not much benefit. Would have made more sense to bus a different wolf and keep the extra kill around. Worst case, we lynch a villager and then one is killed, we start D9 at 4:2 and have to lynch a wolf. Best case we lynch a wolf on D8, and start D9 at 5:1.
B - We lynch GB today, but she's village. 6:3, wolves kill one, start D8 at 5:3, we lynch wolfy sp tomorrow, 5:2, wolves potentially kill 2 again, start D9 at 3:2...and again we HAVE to lynch a wolf or it's game over. If sp is the multikiller, then we start D9 at 4:2 and still have to lynch a wolf.
C - We lynch SP today, SP is wolf, but probably not the source of the multikill? 7:2, wolves kill one, 6:2, so same as scenario 1A except the multikill may still be around, so if we lynched a villager tomorrow and went into the night 5:2, D9 we would start at 4:2 or 3:2. Or, we lynch a wolf instead, and start D9 at 4:1 or 3:1.
D - We lynch SP today, but SP is village. In that case, GB is almost certainly a wolf. N7 - 6:3 wolves kill one, D8 - 5:3, we lynch GB, N8 - 5:2 wolves kill one, D9 - 4:2 and again we have to lynch a wolf.

So worst case scenario, we lynch a villager today, and end up at must lynch D9. Best case, we lynch wolfy GB today and end up at 5:1 on D9. Everything in between is kind of a wash from how I see it. So mathematically, it doesn't matter too much what order we do this in....which means this was all not to helpful I guess but I'm posting it anyway because I spent a lot of time on it dammit.

And if we can't trust lotf's info, this is all useless anyway!

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[Great Butts]

Okay, but can someone give me a GOOD reason as to why I am/would be wolfy?

Other than what SP claimed.

 

[SummerTheLynx]

Based on lotf's info, game started with 6 non-villagers. We know there was potential for at least 1 conversion, 7 total non-villagers (I'm going to look at this . 2 are dead. 1 is cdo. That leaves 4, and lotf said we only have 3 wolves left. I'm thinking teep counts as one of the non-villagers. If he doesn't and, for instance, GB is chaos...things get really messy and make my brain hurt lol


7 villagers
3 wolves
1 neutral
A - We lynch GB today, if she's a wolf as described, it becomes 7:2, wolves kill one overnight, we start tomorrow (D8) at 6:2 and there are no more multikill nights. In this scenario I think it is unlikely sp is also a wolf, because they would have thrown their extra kill under the bus for not much benefit. Would have made more sense to bus a different wolf and keep the extra kill around. Worst case, we lynch a villager and then one is killed, we start D9 at 4:2 and have to lynch a wolf. Best case we lynch a wolf on D8, and start D9 at 5:1.
B - We lynch GB today, but she's village. 6:3, wolves kill one, start D8 at 5:3, we lynch wolfy sp tomorrow, 5:2, wolves potentially kill 2 again, start D9 at 3:2...and again we HAVE to lynch a wolf or it's game over. If sp is the multikiller, then we start D9 at 4:2 and still have to lynch a wolf.
C - We lynch SP today, SP is wolf, but probably not the source of the multikill? 7:2, wolves kill one, 6:2, so same as scenario 1A except the multikill may still be around, so if we lynched a villager tomorrow and went into the night 5:2, D9 we would start at 4:2 or 3:2. Or, we lynch a wolf instead, and start D9 at 4:1 or 3:1.
D - We lynch SP today, but SP is village. In that case, GB is almost certainly a wolf. N7 - 6:3 wolves kill one, D8 - 5:3, we lynch GB, N8 - 5:2 wolves kill one, D9 - 4:2 and again we have to lynch a wolf.

So worst case scenario, we lynch a villager today, and end up at must lynch D9. Best case, we lynch wolfy GB today and end up at 5:1 on D9. Everything in between is kind of a wash from how I see it. So mathematically, it doesn't matter too much what order we do this in....which means this was all not to helpful I guess but I'm posting it anyway because I spent a lot of time on it dammit.

And if we can't trust lotf's info, this is all useless anyway!

I don't like that you assumed gb is not chaos (or it was "too harmful for your brain") I got a little bit of a different story when I did the analysis with gb as a possible chaos. Same end result mostly, but still....

 

[SportPonies]

I only have a few minutes to hop on now because I'm in class, but I'll be back later to discuss better.

I was super busy all day yesterday (and still am today), but I wanted to get the info out as soon as I could, since I didn't know what to think about it and wanted to know what you guys thought. It came directly from Trilt through my ability.

lynch Butts

 

[WildZoo]

I don't like that you assumed gb is not chaos (or it was "too harmful for your brain") I got a little bit of a different story when I did the analysis with gb as a possible chaos. Same end result mostly, but still....

I needed a break man, that took me like 15 minutes to get through. I have a follow up with GB as chaos (or with chaos in the game in general) but it's only half done.

 

[DVMDream]

I only have a few minutes to hop on now because I'm in class, but I'll be back later to discuss better.

I was super busy all day yesterday (and still am today), but I wanted to get the info out as soon as I could, since I didn't know what to think about it and wanted to know what you guys thought. It came directly from Trilt through my ability.

lynch Butts

I'm going to need more detail to be honest.

 

[DVMDream]

Based on lotf's info, game started with 6 non-villagers. We know there was potential for at least 1 conversion, 7 total non-villagers (I'm going to look at this . 2 are dead. 1 is cdo. That leaves 4, and lotf said we only have 3 wolves left. I'm thinking teep counts as one of the non-villagers. If he doesn't and, for instance, GB is chaos...things get really messy and make my brain hurt lol


7 villagers
3 wolves
1 neutral
A - We lynch GB today, if she's a wolf as described, it becomes 7:2, wolves kill one overnight, we start tomorrow (D8) at 6:2 and there are no more multikill nights. In this scenario I think it is unlikely sp is also a wolf, because they would have thrown their extra kill under the bus for not much benefit. Would have made more sense to bus a different wolf and keep the extra kill around. Worst case, we lynch a villager and then one is killed, we start D9 at 4:2 and have to lynch a wolf. Best case we lynch a wolf on D8, and start D9 at 5:1.
B - We lynch GB today, but she's village. 6:3, wolves kill one, start D8 at 5:3, we lynch wolfy sp tomorrow, 5:2, wolves potentially kill 2 again, start D9 at 3:2...and again we HAVE to lynch a wolf or it's game over. If sp is the multikiller, then we start D9 at 4:2 and still have to lynch a wolf.
C - We lynch SP today, SP is wolf, but probably not the source of the multikill? 7:2, wolves kill one, 6:2, so same as scenario 1A except the multikill may still be around, so if we lynched a villager tomorrow and went into the night 5:2, D9 we would start at 4:2 or 3:2. Or, we lynch a wolf instead, and start D9 at 4:1 or 3:1.
D - We lynch SP today, but SP is village. In that case, GB is almost certainly a wolf. N7 - 6:3 wolves kill one, D8 - 5:3, we lynch GB, N8 - 5:2 wolves kill one, D9 - 4:2 and again we have to lynch a wolf.

So worst case scenario, we lynch a villager today, and end up at must lynch D9. Best case, we lynch wolfy GB today and end up at 5:1 on D9. Everything in between is kind of a wash from how I see it. So mathematically, it doesn't matter too much what order we do this in....which means this was all not to helpful I guess but I'm posting it anyway because I spent a lot of time on it dammit.

And if we can't trust lotf's info, this is all useless anyway!

I would never include the NPC as part of the non villagers....essentially, an NPC isn't even part if the game.. hence "non playing".

Also, you're not including if SP is claiming GB has the extra kill but it really is a different wolf that does.

I really think you need to consider there is a chaos in your above scenarios along with 3 wolves and a neutral. That leaves us with 6 villagers currently. If chaos is present in this game, we don't have to just kill off the wolves...we have to get rid of chaos too and probably take some consideration into that neutral as well. In my mind we're at best 7 villagers to 4...but more likely 6 to 5... we need to be really careful. Especially since if a chaos is present, they can win at any point all of their win conditions are met, whatever those may be.

 

[Skimble]

I only have a few minutes to hop on now because I'm in class, but I'll be back later to discuss better.

I was super busy all day yesterday (and still am today), but I wanted to get the info out as soon as I could, since I didn't know what to think about it and wanted to know what you guys thought. It came directly from Trilt through my ability.

lynch Butts

What came directly from trilt? The kill part? This is really important.

 

[WildZoo]

If teep doesn't count we likely have a chaos player (which could be GB but could be someone else). I could do extra scenarios where cdo is also chaos instead of neutral...if we want to think about that too.

6 villagers
3 wolves
1 neutral
1 chaos


A- GB is chaos and is the source of the extra kills. We lynch GB today. N7 - 6:3, D8: 5:3 and we must lynch a wolf, because a villager lynch leaves us at 4:3 and with a kill overnight we're at 3:3, game over.
B - GB is chaos, is the source of the extra kills, but we lynch a villager sporty today instead. N7 - 5:3:1, D8 - 4:3:1 and we have to lynch a wolf and hope that GB kills one overnight instead of killing a second villager. This scenario sucks, because we wouldn't know if GB is a wolf or chaos, so we would likely lynch her tomorrow, which would be a mistake if she is chaos.
C - GB is chaos and isn't the source of the extra kills - therefore sporty was lying, and is a wolf. We lynch GB today. N7 - 6:3, D8 - 5:3, we lynch wolfy sporty, N8 - 4:2. But even then, if sporty also wasn't the source of the extra kills, we're screwed - two kills overnight brings us to 2:2. If sporty is the source of the extra kills, then we start D9 at 3:2 and must lynch a wolf.
D - Either GB or sporty is a villager, we lynch the villager today, N7 - 5:3:1, D8 - 4:3:1 and we again have to lynch a wolf - either GB or sporty depending on which one of them is alive. N8 - 4:2:1. A couple things could happen here (depends on where the extra kill is coming from). 2 village kills and it's game over at 2:2:1. A village kill and a wolf kill it's 3:1:1 - we need to lynch either the wolf or chaos (unless we get real luck N9...guess it could happen). A village kill and chaos kill would put us at 3:2 for D9, again we have to lynch a wolf.
E- Both GB and sporty are wolves, and the one we lynch today is the source of the extra kills. N7 - 6:2:1, D8 - 5:2:1 (really depends on who the wolves kill but I'm going with worst case scenario). This is not a case where we have to lynch a wolf or chaos (I think?). Worst case we lynch a villager and another dies overnight, N8 - 4:2:1, D9 - 3:2:1 and THEN we're at must lynch.
F - Both GB and sporty are wolves, but the one we lynch today is not the source of the extra kills. N7 - 6:2:1, D8 - 5:2:1. Village lynch we start N8 at 4:2:1, wolf lynch at 5:1:1, chaos lynch at 5:2. Things get interesting depending on who is responsible for the extra kills. Worst case scenario, we lynch a villager and the multi kill is still in play, that brings us to 2:2:1 and...the game could end there but I'm not sure?

Sporty could be chaos but this seems like a weird play for that scenario so I didn't really outline it, it probably fits into one of the above...Can you see why this made my brain hurt?? I'm assuming in all scenarios that multiple kills can only happen on even nights, because you have to make some assumptions or else you'll never finish these types of scenarios, and that's what we've seen so far. If multiple kills can happen on odd nights I'm pretty sure we're screwed anyway.

Edit: All of this kind of depends on the chaos win condition too, which we have no idea about.

 

[WildZoo]

I would never include the NPC as part of the non villagers....essentially, an NPC isn't even part if the game.. hence "non playing".

Also, you're not including if SP is claiming GB has the extra kill but it really is a different wolf that does.

I really think you need to consider there is a chaos in your above scenarios along with 3 wolves and a neutral. That leaves us with 6 villagers currently. If chaos is present in this game, we don't have to just kill off the wolves...we have to get rid of chaos too and probably take some consideration into that neutral as well. In my mind we're at best 7 villagers to 4...but more likely 6 to 5... we need to be really careful. Especially since if a chaos is present, they can win at any point all of their win conditions are met, whatever those may be.

Good point as far as the NPC goes. I did look back and he wasn't included in the player counts either, so now I'm thinking the second group of scenarios is more likely.

I covered that in the second group of scenarios I think. For the first group, if there is no chaos, I didn't include it because if they are both wolves and sp is making a false claim, we lynch sp tomorrow. Even if the last wolf is the one with the extra kill, D9 starts at 3:1 and that would have just been really dumb for the wolves to do. Unless of course the multiple kills can happen on any night, in which case I'm pretty sure we're toast no matter what we do.

Edit: Ah, nevermind, I guess it would be extremely risky but not the most dumb since if we lynched a villager D9 they would win.

 

[WildZoo]

I'm still trying to figure out who is the best option for lynching today based on all of these scenarios...they aren't both villagers. If one is villager then obviously we don't want to lynch that one, but there is no scenario where the game ends today.

Even looking at it from an information perspective rather than a numbers perspective, there isn't much difference:
If we lynch sporty today and she's village, we know we need to lynch GB, but we don't know whether he is wolf or chaos, which does make a difference as far as what we do tomorrow.
If sporty is wolf, that doesn't necessarily say anything about GB's affiliation.
If sporty is chaos, again doesn't tell us anything about GB's affiliation.

If GB is a villager and we lynch him today, we know we need to lynch sporty. Higher likelihood of being a wolf, but could be chaos, and again that affects what we should do tomorrow.
If GB is a wolf, doesn't necessarily say anything about sporty's affiliation, unless he isn't the wolf with the extra kills, in which case sporty is lying and needs to be lynched
If GB is chaos, same as above except that if she's lying sporty definitely is a wolf and we know we need to lynch her tomorrow

So the way I'm looking at it right now, I see slightly more potential info from a GB lynch than a sporty lynch. Very slightly. No one is cleared no matter who we lynch.

 

[DVMDream]

Good point as far as the NPC goes. I did look back and he wasn't included in the player counts either, so now I'm thinking the second group of scenarios is more likely.

I covered that in the second group of scenarios I think. For the first group, if there is no chaos, I didn't include it because if they are both wolves and sp is making a false claim, we lynch sp tomorrow. Even if the last wolf is the one with the extra kill, D9 starts at 3:1 and that would have just been really dumb for the wolves to do. Unless of course the multiple kills can happen on any night, in which case I'm pretty sure we're toast no matter what we do.

Edit: Ah, nevermind, I guess it would be extremely risky but not the most dumb since if we lynched a villager D9 they would win.

We could be at 6:5 currently. We lynch a villager, 5:5... that's end there.

 

[DVMDream]

And, yes, I do realize that isn't 5 wolves... but a neutral really doesn't count and if there is chaos, we have to lynch that one. It is better to guess at the worst case scenario than to assume better and lose.

 

[WildZoo]

We could be at 6:5 currently. We lynch a villager, 5:5... that's end there.

My experience with chaos in endgame is limited. I thought it still ends when village = wolves (or chaos meets some magical win condition that ends the game early, not much we can do about that except lynch chaos), not when village = all other factions combined.

If it's the latter then **** all the scenarios and pray we don't lynch a villager today lol

 

[DVMDream]

My experience with chaos in endgame is limited. I thought it still ends when village = wolves (or chaos meets some magical win condition that ends the game early, not much we can do about that except lynch chaos), not when village = all other factions combined.

If it's the latter then **** all the scenarios and pray we don't lynch a villager today lol

Village has to lynch all others to win, maybe with the exception of neutral. So 6:4 if we want to be generous...Lynch a villager today... 5:4... overnight kill... 4:4...

It isn't also just about the numbers, we have to remember we are getting to the point where basically all villagers have to vote together or wolves can easily pull the lynch any direction they desire

 

[PippyPony]

If Teepster is not included, which I think is most likely given the player counts and DVMD's point, then LoTF's numbers from last night are contradictory to what she posted early yesterday morning.

 

[Great Butts]

I only have a few minutes to hop on now because I'm in class, but I'll be back later to discuss better.

I was super busy all day yesterday (and still am today), but I wanted to get the info out as soon as I could, since I didn't know what to think about it and wanted to know what you guys thought. It came directly from Trilt through my ability.

lynch Butts

Lolwat, I'm about to post a screenshot of my PMs just to prove that I'm a villager

 

[Great Butts]

Well, no one has given me a good reason for my supposed wolfiness other than SP's claim. And I think it's stupid to rest solely on what she's said, because I think she's being very selective with her words to get me lynched.

If she's talking about my one use ability to cancel that she got from Trilt, that's correct, but she's tacking on the kill ability which is not true at all.

 

[PippyPony]

Lolwat, I'm about to post a screenshot of my PMs just to prove that I'm a villager

(I think @Trilt said no screenshots? But based on STL's PM-vomit a couple days ago, clearly regurgitating PMs in quote form is allowed, although not encouraged because #pita)

 

[WildZoo]

Usually the rule is no screenshots, and copy and paste doesn't mean anything because it can be manipulated (as can screenshots really)

 

[Trilt]

3. No screenshots.

 

[Great Butts]

I was kidding

 

[WildZoo]

Village has to lynch all others to win, maybe with the exception of neutral. So 6:4 if we want to be generous...Lynch a villager today... 5:4... overnight kill... 4:4...

It isn't also just about the numbers, we have to remember we are getting to the point where basically all villagers have to vote together or wolves can easily pull the lynch any direction they desire

I gotcha. I was thinking more of how close are we to the game actually ending, but granted we don't know the chaos win condition so we don't know exactly when that will happen. We know either sporty or GB is lying. So at least we've got a 50/50 shot for the non-village lynch there. Would really like for @SportPonies to show back up. I know she said she's busy but this is info dump territory.

 

[DVMDream]

If Teepster is not included, which I think is most likely given the player counts and DVMD's point, then LoTF's numbers from last night are contradictory to what she posted early yesterday morning.

Wait how are LoTF's numbers contradictory?

 

[DVMDream]

Well, no one has given me a good reason for my supposed wolfiness other than SP's claim. And I think it's stupid to rest solely on what she's said, because I think she's being very selective with her words to get me lynched.

If she's talking about my one use ability to cancel that she got from Trilt, that's correct, but she's tacking on the kill ability which is not true at all.

I've given multiple reasons why I think you're wolfy.

 

[cdo96]

If the idea is GB or SP, I can see if I can get one of them diagnostic wise before Lynch close (because Trilt said

(so submit your choice by the end of lynch; you'll get your results ASAP depending mostly on how busy it is at work)

) if not, it'll be soon after Lynch so we can spend time talking about it. And I'll use the credit card so it'll be a full diagnosis.

 

[Great Butts]

I'll be busy for the rest of the day and unable to defend myself, but I'll try not to be salty when you guys lynch me

 

[DVMDream]

Meh,

Great butts is actually making me feel better about my continued lynch on her....

Still would like to hear from SP more but I'm ok sticking with GB since she's basically not going to defend

 

[PippyPony]

Wait how are LoTF's numbers contradictory?

Yesterday at 8am (emphasis mine):

I am way too freaking stressed right now to keep up with this game, so I am gonna spill more info than I likely should, but I don't have the time to subtly hint at this crap often enough to get you guys to stop going off track.

The wolves only have 3 left. Maybe that is 2 and a conversion, but 3 is all she wrote.

The original wolves are distributed among medical groups. So assuming that we have a conversion, that means 4 groups, so we need to simplify. (Or, maybe it is 5 and we can hope that they need to convert from the final group.) So maybe cancer, infection, genetic, metabolic, endocrine?

Cdo is our only human. Any suggestion from a player that they might be as well, should be viewed with heavy suspicion. Because of this, I do actually trust that she is neutral in role, but I cannot swear that she is playing that way.

She is implying 5 total wolves and one neutral of yesterday morning, unless I am reading this incorrectly.

Yesterday at 10pm:

The game started with 6 non villagers. We have had 2 wolves caught, and cdo is neutral. Since we expect there to be a conversion, that leaves 2 original wolves.

So 4 original wolves plus a potential convert. The wolves are distributed among medical categories. As I stated, I don't know if the convert would be in it's own category.

I gotta go. I had more, but new developments IRL are very bad stuff.

I clarified afterwards if she meant that we started with 6 villagers, and she liked the post but didn't respond. I also asked if she was including Teep, to which she also did not respond.

I don't know if we "expect there to be a conversion" because serher didn't detect any conversions, and you said that the muzzle only prevented kills (and since nyanko was village, that confirms the item did what she said it did).

So we either started with 5 wolves + 1 neutral and there have been no conversions (6 non-village @ start), or we started with 4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos, and there have been no conversions (6 non-village @ start), or we started with 4 original wolves + 1 neutral + 1 conversion later on (5 non-village @ start)

It seems like she's going back and forth on the conversion vs. chaos part -- how is she getting 4 wolves + a convert? That would have to imply the game started with 5 non-village, not 6 non-village, unless she thinks there is a chaos. But then if we started with 4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos and there was a conversion, wolves would have 4 left, not 3, as she's so adamant about in the first post.

I'd like to know why @LadyOtheFarm is lynching GB, and what affiliation she thinks GB has.

 

[cdo96]

Lynch Butts

Any objections to doing a full work up on SP? I can use the CareCredit Card to work up SP if that's the general consensus.

You have received a CareCredit Card that you can use once to get a full diagnostic work-up on any player in the game.

 

[WildZoo]

I don't know if we "expect there to be a conversion" because serher didn't detect any conversions, and you said that the muzzle only prevented kills (and since nyanko was village, that confirms the item did what she said it did).

Whether the conversion has happened yet or not, we know there would be at least one available in the game, because otherwise ser's ability is useless. So I just went ahead and included the conversion in my calculations (those numbers make more sense to me than 5 originals and a convert anyway). But if we want to go super worst case, we started out with 6 non-villagers and instead of chaos we had a 5th original wolf. Which would mean there are 3 now and they haven't used their conversion yet. In that case...I think we might be screwed.

The rest I'll leave lotf to answer.

 

[WildZoo]

If it's currently 6 villager, 3 wolves, and 1 neutral, plus the wolves still have a conversion in their back pocket, we absolutely have to lynch a wolf today. If we don't it goes 5:3, and then they can convert for the 4:4 win. So that is the worst case scenario.

 

[DVMDream]

Yesterday at 8am (emphasis mine):



She is implying 5 total wolves.

Yesterday at 10pm:


I clarified afterwards if she meant that we started with 6 villagers, and she liked the post but didn't respond. I also asked if she was including Teep, to which she also did not respond.

I don't know if we "expect there to be a conversion" because serher didn't detect any conversions, and you said that the muzzle only prevented kills (and since nyanko was village, that confirms the item did what she said it did).

So we either started with 5 wolves + 1 neutral and there have been no conversions (6 non-village @ start), or we started with 4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos, and there have been no conversions (6 non-village @ start), or we started with 4 original wolves + 1 neutral + 1 conversion later on (5 non-village @ start)

It seems like she's going back and forth on the conversion vs. chaos part -- how is she getting 4 wolves + a convert? That would have to imply the game started with 5 non-village, not 6 non-village, unless she thinks there is a chaos. But then if we started with 4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos and there was a conversion, wolves would have 4 left, not 3, as she's so adamant about in the first post.

I'd like to know why @LadyOtheFarm is lynching GB, and what affiliation she thinks GB has.

I think you're missing something very important here... that is the 6 non villagers at game start.... that means start of game. That could be 4 wolves, neutral, chaos....with a wolf conversion later on. A conversion wouldn't be included in the game start numbers...thus 6 non villagers at game start and 5 total wolves is very possible.

 

[PippyPony]

I think you're missing something very important here... that is the 6 non villagers at game start.... that means start of game. That could be 4 wolves, neutral, chaos....with a wolf conversion later on. A conversion wouldn't be included in the game start numbers...thus 6 non villagers at game start and 5 total wolves is very possible.

But that's my point. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think her numbers start to break down if you add a conversion into the mix.

It would mean, though, that the conversion would have had to have been last night.

ETA: the breakdown happens in what she's claiming in the earlier post about why she knows cdo is the only neutral. I'm going to go back and bold that part because I didn't before.

 

[DVMDream]

If it's currently 6 villager, 3 wolves, and 1 neutral, plus the wolves still have a conversion in their back pocket, we absolutely have to lynch a wolf today. If we don't it goes 5:3, and then they can convert for the 4:4 win. So that is the worst case scenario.

I still think it is 6 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 neutral and 1 chaos. Would make the most sense with the info we have from LoTF as well....

Plus 6 total wolves is overkill

 

[DVMDream]

But that's my point. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think her numbers start to break down if you add a conversion into the mix.

It would mean, though, that the conversion would have had to have been last night.

I don't think her numbers break down at all.

6 non villagers... 4 wolves, neutral, chaos...
Or 5 wolves and neutral
Or 5 wolves and chaos

We've lynched 2 wolves.... that leaves 3 remaining...

Two possibilities... 2 original + convert... this the 4 wolves, neutral, chaos is accurate

Or 3 original wolves with either a neutral or a chaos. And wolves haven't used a conversion yet.

It all adds up just fine

 

[PippyPony]

I still think it is 6 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 neutral and 1 chaos. Would make the most sense with the info we have from LoTF as well....

Plus 6 total wolves is overkill

Ok but then if that is true, then there had to have been a conversion last night.

 

[DVMDream]

But that's my point. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think her numbers start to break down if you add a conversion into the mix.

It would mean, though, that the conversion would have had to have been last night.

ETA: the breakdown happens in what she's claiming in the earlier post about why she knows cdo is the only neutral. I'm going to go back and bold that part because I didn't before.

I think you're trying to squeeze the convert as part of the 6 non villagers but a convert wouldn't be included in that number.

 

[DVMDream]

Ok but then if that is true, then there had to have been a conversion last night.

And maybe there was. We have no way to know

 

[WildZoo]

I still think it is 6 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 neutral and 1 chaos. Would make the most sense with the info we have from LoTF as well....

Plus 6 total wolves is overkill

I agree, just putting that possibility out there. Like I said the 4+1 for wolves makes more sense to me, and that's why I based all my scenarios on it.

 

[DVMDream]

Regardless, we still need to hear more from @SportPonies

I'm actually considering lynching her if she doesn't come on to explain further.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Unofficial Lynch Tally:

STL () -
GB (5) - DVMD, LOtF, WZ, SP, cdo
SP (2) - AM, GB
WZ (2) - Pippy, Jil

9/11

 

[PippyPony]

I don't think her numbers break down at all.

6 non villagers... 4 wolves, neutral, chaos...
Or 5 wolves and neutral
Or 5 wolves and chaos

We've lynched 2 wolves.... that leaves 3 remaining...

Two possibilities... 2 original + convert... this the 4 wolves, neutral, chaos is accurate

Or 3 original wolves with either a neutral or a chaos. And wolves haven't used a conversion yet.

It all adds up just fine

If you believe LoTF's statement about there 100% being 3 wolves left, then no -- those do not all add up just fine. In fact, they add up to different things when you subtract 2 wolves from the scenarios you listed. The only ways it works out are:

5 wolves + 1 neutral + 0 chaos + 0 conversions - 2 wolves = 3 wolves + 1 neutral

4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos + 1 conversion - 2 wolves = 3 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos

____________
for the record, scenarios that don't work:

4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos + 0 conversions - 2 wolves = 2 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos

5 wolves + 1 neutral + 0 chaos + 1 conversion - 2 wolves = 4 wolves + 1 neutral

(and you can sub out neutral for chaos in that last one and still get the same result.)

3 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos does not equal 6 non-village at the start, so it's moot, as are other combinations like 6 wolves @ the start, because that results in 4 wolves left.
_____________

I'm going to drop the math now since no one else seems to be particularly concerned, and DVMD's been sounding very, very village this morning except for this.

I am legitimately torn between a sportyspice lynch and a butts lynch, particularly given that it's an odd night vs. an even one. I agree with DVMD that we're probably screwed if we guess wrong, and that we need to be voting together from here on out.

 

[Trilt]

~2 hours remaining.
(AM's lynch tally appears correct).

 

[PippyPony]

Ok I have remembered some things, and have re-evaluated.

- Both wolves we have killed thus far have 2 abilities. One ability is traditionally villagery, 1 is traditionally wolf-like. Coop: Protect + Block, MJ: Communicate + Delayed Block. If GB is a wolf, she has an Extra Kill (EVEN night) + Cancel (ODD night, is probably 1 time use). She fits the formula.

(Edit to add: I think this yin-yang ability thing is actually really important; this is the main reason I'm going for GB today).

- The night cancel happened on a ODD night when we might have been able to upgrade the seer, so although it prevented a kill, it also prevented us from getting info
- She is the only person remaining in her group any way you want to slice and dice the groups.
- I also noticed something minor about GB's posting patterns that I am not going to put here, because it's very tinfoil hat, but it's another +0.5 wolf towards her.

Lynch GreatButts

 

[DVMDream]

If you believe LoTF's statement about there 100% being 3 wolves left, then no -- those do not all add up just fine. In fact, they add up to different things when you subtract 2 wolves from the scenarios you listed. The only ways it works out are:

5 wolves + 1 neutral + 0 chaos + 0 conversions - 2 wolves = 3 wolves + 1 neutral

5 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos + 1 conversion - 2 wolves = 3 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos

____________
for the record, scenarios that don't work:

4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos + 0 conversions - 2 wolves = 2 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos

5 wolves + 1 neutral + 0 chaos + 1 conversion - 2 wolves = 4 wolves + 1 neutral

(and you can sub out neutral for chaos in that last one and still get the same result.)

3 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos does not equal 6 non-village at the start, so it's moot, as are other combinations like 6 wolves @ the start, because that results in 4 wolves left.
_____________

I'm going to drop the math now since no one else seems to be particularly concerned, and DVMD's been sounding very, very village this morning except for this.

I am legitimately torn between a sportyspice lynch and a butts lynch, particularly given that it's an odd night vs. an even one. I agree with DVMD that we're probably screwed if we guess wrong, and that we need to be voting together from here on out.

The problem you have is that you are trying to include the convert as part of the non villagers at the start of game. You are missing that that person would have been a villager at the start. So, yes, it still all adds up fine. You just have to realize that 6 non villagers at start of game, with a coversion... equals 7 total non villagers throughout the game.

Which means 4 wolves + 1 neutral + 1 chaos + 1 conversion... would still fit the scenario

As would 5 wolves + 1 neutral
As would 5 wolves + 1 chaos

The thing is.. we know the wolves have a conversion...as that was ser's ability.

What we do not know is if they have used that conversion yet. So is it 3 wolves, all originals with a convert they are still waiting to use. Or is it 2 originals and a convert.

 

[PippyPony]

@DVMDream I'm not sure if you actually read my post based on what you just responded with (I was not including the conversion at the start -- look at my second calculation*) but we're going in circles. And if you are also village, then we need to stop doing that.

I just lynched GB, we should do that today, we're all on the same page here. Go team?



*edit: which I just realized had a typo in it @DVMDream ....#facepalm; should have added up to 7, not 8. Ok now we're really on the same page

 

[Trilt]

Officialish Lynch Tally:
STL () -
GB (6) - DVMD, LOtF, WZ, SP, cdo, Pippy
SP (2) - AM, GB
WZ (1) - Jil

9/11 - deadline 2 hours from now.

 

[DVMDream]

@DVMDream I'm not sure if you actually read my post based on what you just responded with (I was not including the conversion at the start -- look at my second calculation, but we're going in circles. And if you are also village, then we need to stop doing that.

I just lynched GB, we should do that today, we're all on the same page here. Go team?

Yeah, we should lynch GB.

But I do promise, the numbers add up...

 

[DVMDream]

And I still really want to hear from @SportPonies

The fact that she refused to explain any further when she was here earlier is very weird and makes me a bit suspicious