I've worked my butt off so that one day I can be a light to dentistry. I can't say that I would turn away from my passion because of debt. However, I made a decision to ONLY apply instate and keep my loans under $250,000. I listen to all advice and I make adjustments accordingly but I will never go into another field because of $$. Do what you love guys but be smart about it. If I have to apply 5 times then I will but I will not be moving out of state to go to d school.
Being risk averse can also be risky. Say you don't get into your state school your first time and have to wait an additional year to apply. That is one year of lost income (assuming you are a traditional student with little income potential during a gap year). For many students this may mean additional schooling to become more competitive, which is further debt on top of lost income.
People often make the mistake of assuming that one year of lost income means only missing out on an associate's salary: it does not.
Is it one year lost at the beginning or the end of your career? You said that you would be willing to wait 5 years to go to your states school, but that is a significant amount of lost earning potential. Well, it's a lost year of your total career's average income (not the beginning, middle, or the end, but one year from 30+ you
can/will practice). More importantly though, it's one less year of savings which could go towards an IRA / 401k. Money you earn later is inflated (meaning money you earn now is more valuable) and this works to your advantage in several ways. First, the older your investments, the better off you will be thanks to compound interest. Also, the older your student loan debt, the less burden it will be (student loan debt becomes less painful with time thanks to inflation).
There is a cost to delaying your education too. It may be worth it for some, especially if you have high enough earning potential to offset the cost of delaying a dental education. But when you are worried about $400k in student loans, and you sacrifice $200k in lost income (averaged over your entire career, it will actually be much higher in all likelihood) to miss out on 1 year of dental school to go to a dental school which saves you only $100k or $150k, then that doesn't make much financial sense.
I think of markets like lanes on the freeway. People are eager to get out of their lane when it begins moving slowly, then get frustrated when they move to a new lane and find the one they were in previously has suddenly started moving again. Studies on traffic flow have shown that you are better off picking a lane and sticking with it. The same can be said for stocks and careers. There are simply too many confounding variables which we can't account for to say with any certainty whether dentistry will ever recover again. Pick your lane and stick with it. Try not to worry too much about the cost, but do your best to reduce your loans.
Given the choice to delay one year or go to a private school for an extra $200k, I would personally take the private school option. I know that student loan debt compounds as well, but something many folks here don't consider is the fact that most financially savvy investors don't pay back loans which have a lower interest rate than they would get back from investing the money instead. Stocks averaging 7%? Invest in the market and pay the minimum balance on your student loan debt which is at 5-6%. I understand people's aversion to debt / risk, but balancing debt and taking appropriate risks is what makes so many great businessmen, well.... great.
