I called the admissions committee today and asked four questions and got four answers. Here's three of those four questions.
"Are there two separate wait-lists, one for out of state-ers and one for in-state-ers?"
Answer - "They're all the same."
"Is the next decision date March 16?"
"Yes. The committee meets on March 16. Admissions decisions will be sent out later than that."
"Have more than 740 interviews been completed?"
Answer - "A little more than 900 have been completed."
Assuming that they accept the same number as they did last year (559 - a big assumption to make), assuming that a little over 900 means something like 910 (a smaller assumption), and assuming that the admissions tracker is current on acceptances, though not on completed interviews (a big assumption to make, but perhaps a warranted one, considering that the class size is 286 and many people have yet to withdraw their acceptances before May), the probability of getting drawn for acceptance out of hat (no other factors coming into play, is (559 future and present acceptances - 328 presently given acceptances)/(910 people interviewed - 328 acceptances given to people who interviewed), which is 231/582, which is 39.7%
So whatever that means.
students do get an elective rotation and can do this out of state. I do believe we are only allowed one elective rotation though. A few matched M4s i talked to did recommend to do an elective OOS if you plan to apply to residency at that location. (ie if you want a residency spot in california, go do your elective in california).
