Its mainly hating on IMGs or misinformation. This residency crunch thing was one of the most widely talked about stories among US MD and US DOs in 2011-13. The predictions were by 2015 the US AMG graduation numbers would = US Residency positions and IMGs would be completely squeezed out. Look at 2014 Match Stats, does that look likely? Haha...
At the time I questioned it because it was all based on one article and the predictions failed to account for natural growth in residency positions and it crucially equated the number of 1st year US MD students with US MS4 graduates in its doomsday predictions, i.e. by 2015 there will be 26k first year medical students in the US and in 2011 there were 26k residency spots.
1. Even in the article it stated a 0.883% annual growth rate in US residency positions so off the bat the predictions are weakened.
2. On top of that the 2015 predictions of 26k first year medical students was then somehow miraculously equated to 26k final year medical students.
3. The numbers never took into account the fact that a number of DO students do not apply to US ACGME residencies and only to DO residencies.
Add on the recession and fears of reduced GME spots the doomsday theory took firm hold.
Crucially, most of the doomsday predictions were not even mentioned in the article and their point about a possible "drop in residency positions" in the future was not cited, it was just fluff pulled straight out of their ass. In fact, Medicare has funding for an annual growth in residency positions as shown by reality in 2012, 13 and 14.
http://www.medicalopedia.org/3946/n...says-journal-of-american-medical-association/
http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1475200
This was the article.
So what really happened?
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2014.pdf
Unlike the 26k GME positions by 2015 theory in 2014 there were 29,671 positions. (if we are talking about PGY-1 positions then 23k in 2011 and now 26k in 2014)
U.S. allopathic medical school senior students comprised 17,374 of the active applicants in the Match, 113 fewer than in 2013.
The number of active U.S. citizen IMGs continued to grow, and at 5,133 was an almost 40 percent increase since 2010. The match rate for this group was 53.0 percent, the highest since 2005
The number of active applicants who were non-U.S. citizen students/graduates of international medical schools declined from 7,568 in 2013 to 7,334 this year; however, their PGY-1 match rate rose for the second consecutive year and at 49.5 percent was the second highest in the past 10 years
The forums are now silent about it, always be skeptical when people cry about the end of the world. Also be skeptical when people for whom this has no relevance to i.e. AMGs complain. Because it doesn't affect them personally, they are unlikely to do much research and because it makes them feel better about themselves they are more likely to spread the information around. A bad combination if you ask me.
Moral of the story, when people make claims, do your own research.