The problem I have with the anti-australia posters is chiefly that they scaremonger. They claim to know much more than they do, particularly when they assert knowledge of doomsday prophecy. Every year they say, 'this is the year', or even 6-7 years back when I was applying that 'no way will you (or anyone in Australia) be able to stay'. I'm now an RMO.
In Qld (and NSW apparently), so far as I know, every int'l wanting and planning to stay has been able to. But this trend seems to be untenable given the status quo, because the number of students is growing at a faster pace than the number of new intern spots that Qld is expecting to be able to create (and likewise in several other states). The tsunami is happening now, but graduating class sizes will continue to grow for at least another 4 years.
So the question is, if nothing changes, when will there be insufficient spots; or, will something change? No one has that answer. I don't give a rat's ass who claims to know, they've all been proven wrong. Yet numbers continue to grow faster than spots. Eventually,
if the status quo continues, states will begin to overflow. Other states will soak up the overflow at first, but eventually they would also be overwhelmed. Of course, that's just the status quo.
There's a lot of pressure on states to change something. There are great arguments for them to accommodate int'ls who are vital to the financial health of the schools (as they are for the unis proper -- int'l students as a whole are the 3rd biggest revenue generator in this state), and they can help solve doctor shortages.
Prof Wilkinson, the dean of UQ Med, just wrote an opinion piece for The Australian arguing for action:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/let-overseas-students-stay/story-e6frg8y6-1225795720409
He doesn't say anything new for those who are already reasonably informed, but he's gotten a bigger audience. He also doesn't say how things can change to allow int'ls to stay. It's the hope at least that people (politicians in particular, who must answer to the unis and to doctor shortages) will become informed and active in applying pressure to change...something.
What can be changed? A number of things. Some small, like small changes that have been lobbied for and have allowed int'ls to stay here to date, and others that have been lobbied for and made to encourage them to stay. Some radical, which could guarantee the opportunity to stay but which won't happen unless radical means are deemed necessary. It'll come down to how the repercussions are perceived, spun, played, lobbied for..
So, I also can't tell you whether you'd be able to stay, sdedalus. I won't even put odds on it. I wouldn't put odds on whether I'd be able to stay, either, or whether I'd return to the States, and then I came. And here I am.