(Potential) National Embargo on Away Rotations

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Elaborate? Besides the economic damage what other big motives could force us to end quarantine too soon?
This is an important point. I feel like it's easy for a lot of us to say we should keep the world shut down when we're sitting at home and not really affected. I mean, yes it sucks if there are no audition rotations or interviews, but none of you are losing your income. So many restaurants in my neighborhood have announced that they are suddenly closing, without warning. Same with other small businesses. This is not sustainable for months on end, even if it means we end up with a higher # dead. Things aren't so black and white. People can't survive without their jobs.

Depression
Anxiety
Suicide
Domestic violence
Child abuse
Emotional suffering
Not being able to see family
Missing out on humanity
Time lost from your life

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Other wealthy western countries seem to be on top of supporting their population much better than ours. Let's not blame COVID as if this kind of economic damage on an individual basis is inevitable.
Maybe, but the reasons don't change the facts. Not to mention the rise in things like domestic violence, child abuse, etc (there have already been articles published about this).
 
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Other "wealthy western countries" don't have near the population or landmass of the US. Its not sustainable to stay locked down and not working for months and not lose countless jobs, destroy peoples' livelihoods, and lead to death from other causes
 
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This is an important point. I feel like it's easy for a lot of us to say we should keep the world shut down when we're sitting at home and not really affected. I mean, yes it sucks if there are no audition rotations or interviews, but none of you are losing your income. So many restaurants in my neighborhood have announced that they are suddenly closing, without warning. Same with other small businesses. This is not sustainable for months on end, even if it means we end up with a higher # dead. Things aren't so black and white. People can't survive without their jobs.

Yes, I think most people understand that. But opening the country with higher number dead is NOT good for the country OR economics. The longer this goes on, the higher the price in terms of healthcare collapse. The sad thing is it would be more black and white had we had a total shutdown in the first place. Even shutting everything down in March may have meant re-opening today. The half-assed shutdown did and continues to do way more harm to the economy - not to mention healthcare- than anything else.
 
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Depression
Anxiety
Suicide
Domestic violence
Child abuse
Emotional suffering
Not being able to see family
Missing out on humanity
Time lost from your life

Depression and anxiety is not related to staying home in general. IT's primarily related to potential illness and economic fallout, including job losses. It will continue even if we open everything right this second. Time lost from your life and missing out on humanity are weak arguments to risk mass casualties and potential collapse of hospital systems.
 
Depression
Anxiety
Suicide
Domestic violence
Child abuse
Emotional suffering
Not being able to see family
Missing out on humanity
Time lost from your life
Didn't realize there had been a significant spike in abuse, that's terrible to hear.

But like Mass Effect says above, the mental and spiritual damage only gets worse from ending quarantine too soon and watching tens of thousands of Americans needlessly die. If someone is depressed or anxious because of quarantine, I don't imagine they'll cope well with grandma and grandpa having decades truncated off their lives.
 
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Maybe, but the reasons don't change the facts. Not to mention the rise in things like domestic violence, child abuse, etc (there have already been articles published about this).

It becomes a risk/benefit analysis. But as much as I am a child advocate, I can't justify risking so many lives (including children) in order to send kids to school for 2 months.

Other "wealthy western countries" don't have near the population or landmass of the US. Its not sustainable to stay locked down and not working for months and not lose countless jobs, destroy peoples' livelihoods, and lead to death from other causes. If you don't understand that you need a basic economics course

Why is the automatic fallback on SDN always "if you don't agree then you must not understand." Is there a smartphrase or something?
 
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That's exactly the problem. These idiots are not going to wait for the science. Politicians are going to play politics and more people will die before these same people realize WTF is happening.

I'm still hoping for more good studies to be out soon to give any direction. A study i found on NEJM turned out to be crap because it didn't have a control group
 
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It becomes a risk/benefit analysis. But as much as I am a child advocate, I can't justify risking so many lives (including children) in order to send kids to school for 2 months.



Why is the automatic fallback on SDN always "if you don't agree then you must not understand." Is there a smartphrase or something?

Yeah its an addon from Twitch
 
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Other "wealthy western countries" don't have near the population or landmass of the US. Its not sustainable to stay locked down and not working for months and not lose countless jobs, destroy peoples' livelihoods, and lead to death from other causes
There are countries with lower GDPs per capita and larger land areas per capita than the US who are handling things much better. Look north. They're planning ~$900 biweekly for the next 3-4 months. Meanwhile the IRS webpage to get our one-time $1200 has crashed.

Not to mention the defense budget, low capital gains tax rates, and myraid other reasons why COVID is not to blame for any widespread poverty that results. It's just the light shining on how crappy our system is.
 
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There are countries with lower GDPs per capita and larger land areas per capita than the US who are handling things much better. Look north. They're planning ~$900 biweekly for the next 3-4 months. Meanwhile the IRS webpage to get our one-time $1200 has crashed.

Not to mention the defense budget, low capital gains tax rates, and myraid other reasons why COVID is not to blame for any widespread poverty that results. It's just the light shining on how crappy our system is.

And don't forget the craptastic way the small business loans were launched.
 
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Why is the automatic fallback on SDN always "if you don't agree then you must not understand." Is there a smartphrase or something?
Doctors and their egos, man. Gotta grow a thick skin to participate in SDN discussions.
 
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I really doubt the shutdown will be extended by few months. Too many costs involved that taking the risk in reopening the economy is unavoidable.

Sadly, I think you're right. I also think it'll be a catastrophic mistake.
 
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There are countries with lower GDPs per capita and larger land areas per capita than the US who are handling things much better. Look north. They're planning ~$900 biweekly for the next 3-4 months. Meanwhile the IRS webpage to get our one-time $1200 has crashed.

Not to mention the defense budget, low capital gains tax rates, and myraid other reasons why COVID is not to blame for any widespread poverty that results. It's just the light shining on how crappy our system is.

...the entire population of Canada is less than double that of New York state. Find another argument because that one falls flat.
 
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Yes, I think most people understand that. But opening the country with higher number dead is NOT good for the country OR economics. The longer this goes on, the higher the price in terms of healthcare collapse. The sad thing is it would be more black and white had we had a total shutdown in the first place. Even shutting everything down in March may have meant re-opening today. The half-assed shutdown did and continues to do way more harm to the economy - not to mention healthcare- than anything else.
It becomes a risk/benefit analysis. But as much as I am a child advocate, I can't justify risking so many lives (including children) in order to send kids to school for 2 months.
I don't disagree with any of your points. But, like @Lawper mentioned, we don't really have any good studies or data. We have no idea what will happen one way or the other. We were told that our healthcare system would be at capacity weeks ago, and it still hasn't happened. I don't think most people will tolerate this for much longer, unless like you said, they are personally affected.
 
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...the entire population in Canada of less than double that of New York state. Find another argument because that one falls flat.
And let me guess, we also can't learn anything from anywhere in Europe because their populations are too homogeneous? It's a cop-out to claim something that works for 40 million people couldn't scale up. Our per capita GDP is significantly higher than places like Canada, Scandinavian nations, UK, etc. America easily could generate the taxes and spend them properly on things like education and unemployment. We choose to do a ****ty job instead so that wealth can keep concentrating faster.
 
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This is a well-worded post that does a better job than I do: "Full disclosure: As a physician who's been in practice for over 15 years, I am financially able to stay in shutdown mode, much longer than your average American. I, personally and financially, don't need this lockdown to end right now. Actually, it's probably in my best interest the longer it goes on, as I don't want COVID spreading around and back to me and my family, any more than anyone else. However, most people are not going to be able to withstand a shutdown long enough to eliminate all risk of COVID-19. Most people, even middle and many upper middle class, live paycheck to paycheck. Once that stimulus check is gone, which is going to be quick because bills haven't stopped mounting, people are going to be desperate. Social distancing and "flattening the curve" were never about eradicating COVID-19 from Earth, or eliminating all risk. That may not happen, ever. It was about allowing healthcare resources to withstand the peak surge of cases. According to the models which is all we have to guide us, as flawed as they are, show we are post peak nationally, and in the worst hotzones of NY, NJ, MI and LA."
 
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I don't disagree with any of your points. But, like @Lawper mentioned, we don't really have any good studies or data. We have no idea what will happen one way or the other. We were told that our healthcare system would be at capacity weeks ago, and it still hasn't happen. I don't think most people will tolerate this for much longer, unless like you said, they are personally affected.
We were told we would be overwhelmed unless we flattened the curve a great deal. We have. I tried to get groceries yesterday and had to wait in a line halfway around the block, everyone spaced out with tape on the ground every six feet, because only a small number of people could go into the store at a time. Isles are all one-way now. Everyone in masks.

That's why we aren't overwelmed. We reopen anytime soon and it will be bad fast.
 
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And let me guess, we also can't learn anything from anywhere in Europe because their populations are too homogeneous? It's a cop-out to claim something that works for 40 million people couldn't scale up. Our per capita GDP is significantly higher than places like Canada, Scandinavian nations, UK, etc. America easily could generate the taxes and spend them properly on things like education and unemployment. We choose to do a ****ty job instead so that wealth can keep concentrating faster.

Lol lets not do this here. The country will open up in a month or so, albeit slowly, and we'll see if you and masseffect are correct.
 
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Lol lets not do this here. The country will open up in a month or so, albeit slowly, and we'll see if you and masseffect are correct.
Fair enough. I lived in Denmark for half a year and it made me much more critical of our system. They laugh about a lot of our national conduct like we're idiot children, and after seeing how their nation runs, I can see why. Here's to hoping it really is overblown and I'm wrong about catastrophic early reopening.
 
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That's why we aren't overwelmed. We reopen anytime soon and it will be bad fast.
I personally disagree but like others have said, we'll have to wait and see; this is all just opinion at the end of the day. I appreciate the discourse, I just think neither you nor I know anything, because the data just isn't out there.
 
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I don't disagree with any of your points. But, like @Lawper mentioned, we don't really have any good studies or data. We have no idea what will happen one way or the other. We were told that our healthcare system would be at capacity weeks ago, and it still hasn't happened. I don't think most people will tolerate this for much longer, unless like you said, they are personally affected.

It's not like we can't extrapolate based on what's happened in other parts of the world. Early re-opening without significant flattening/declining of the curve has proven to be a mistake that's triggered re-shutting down. There's no reason to believe we're special and it won't happen to us.

I disagree that we were told that. What we were told is that IF we didn't do things like socially distance, our healthcare system would be at capacity weeks ago. Thank goodness most places listened. And even with all that listening, you know what's happening? Frontline people are still examining patients without PPE, doctors from other specialties, including orthopedics, dermatology, and psychiatry are working COVID floors and even ICUs because they need the help. I'd argue that our healthcare system DID reach capacity in many places, even if we didn't run out of vents.
 
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It's not like we can't extrapolate based on what's happened in other parts of the world. Early re-opening without significant flattening/declining of the curve has proven to be a mistake that's triggered re-shutting down. There's no reason to believe we're special and it won't happen to us.

I disagree that we were told that. What we were told is that IF we didn't do things like socially distance, our healthcare system would be at capacity weeks ago. Thank goodness most places listened. And even with all that listening, you know what's happening? Frontline people are still examining patients without PPE, doctors from other specialties, including orthopedics, dermatology, and psychiatry are working COVID floors and even ICUs because they need the help. I'd argue that our healthcare system DID reach capacity in many places, even if we didn't run out of vents.
Not really. We were told that the death count would be higher even with social distancing.

" working off the IMHE model, and suggesting that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die. A model developed by the CDC projected a range between 200,000 and 1.7 million. The Imperial College model famously predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. in a do-nothing scenario, and more than 1 million even if quite aggressive mitigation measures were adopted".

Here's a quote directly from the Imperial College study: "Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."

1,000,000+ even with aggressive measures. Today, the IHME model is predicting deaths just shy of 69,000. That's a huge discrepancy...don't get me wrong, I agree with the shutdown, it had to be done. But to say that the models weren't way off is false. And my point was more to the way the general population will perceive things: people saw the news run wild with 2.2 million Americans dead, and now they're seeing 70 or 100,000. There's no way people are going to be okay with continuing the shutdown no matter how many scientists tell them it was for the best.

Regardless, like I said, this is all my opinion and I'm not saying I'm correct.
 
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Not really. We were told that the death count would be higher even with social distancing.

" working off the IMHE model, and suggesting that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die. A model developed by the CDC projected a range between 200,000 and 1.7 million. The Imperial College model famously predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. in a do-nothing scenario, and more than 1 million even if quite aggressive mitigation measures were adopted".

1,000,000+ even with aggressive measures. Today, the IHME model is predicting deaths just shy of 69,000. That's a huge discrepancy...don't get me wrong, I agree with the shutdown, it had to be done. But to say that the models weren't way off is false. And my point was more to the way the general population will perceive things: people saw the news run wild with 2.2 million Americans dead, and now they're seeing 70 or 100,000. There's no way people are going to be okay with continuing the shutdown no matter how many scientists tell them it was for the best.

Regardless, like I said, this is all my opinion and I'm not saying I'm correct.

I didn't say the models weren't off (I don't think anyone did?). I think we all know the models were off, in terms of numbers. But the models said that if we didn't do anything, our healthcare system would be at capacity and may be at capacity anyway. That part was correct. In some places, we WERE at capacity. It just didn't reach every single community, but just because it didn't reach every single community doesn't mean that it wouldn't have had we not shut down (half-assed as it was). The healthcare system being at capacity, in and of itself, would lead to more deaths.
 
I didn't say the models weren't off (I don't think anyone did?). I think we all know the models were off, in terms of numbers. But the models said that if we didn't do anything, our healthcare system would be at capacity and may be at capacity anyway. That part was correct. In some places, we WERE at capacity. It just didn't reach every single community, but just because it didn't reach every single community doesn't mean that it wouldn't have had we not shut down (half-assed as it was). The healthcare system being at capacity, in and of itself, would lead to more deaths.
Again, I don't think we're in disagreement here. Like I said, I agree with the shutdown. It was the right move and had to be done, and I even agree that it should've been done earlier. My point is that the majority of Americans will look at these numbers and not understand why we had a shutdown, or if they understand why we had a shutdown, they won't understand why one needs to continue. There are already protests going on, and I'm sure it'll only get worse if things stay this way.
 
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That's exactly the problem. These idiots are not going to wait for the science. Politicians are going to play politics and more people will die before these same people realize WTF is happening.

Politicians, Wall Street and sellout economists screwed up by encouraging a system of low interest rates (as per the Fed) and favoring consumption at the expense of savings to recover from the recession. Corporations got addicted to this cheap debt and used it for stock buybacks to enrich their execs at the expense of their employees and customers.

Now that the stuff is hitting the fan, even the slightest quarantine means millions lose their jobs and the economy goes into a permanent tailspin. I don't see how any of us medical folks can talk reason to the political establishment. Half-assed shutdowns and restarts are going to be the norm as the politicians freak out about getting re-elected and people (rightly) get concerned about keeping a roof over their heads

So is VSAS giving my money back?

How else can AAMC and VSAS execs fund their lavish trips and vacations training retreats?
 
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Again, I don't think we're in disagreement here. Like I said, I agree with the shutdown. It was the right move and had to be done, and I even agree that it should've been done earlier. My point is that the majority of Americans will look at these numbers and not understand why we had a shutdown, or if they understand why we had a shutdown, they won't understand why one needs to continue. There are already protests going on, and I'm sure it'll only get worse if things stay this way.

I agree that people won't understand and it will energize the conspiracy theorists, but I guess my thinking is let them think what they want.
 
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Politicians, Wall Street and sellout economists screwed up by encouraging a system of low interest rates (as per the Fed) and favoring consumption at the expense of savings to recover from the recession. Corporations got addicted to this cheap debt and used it for stock buybacks to enrich their execs at the expense of their employees and customers.

Now that the stuff is hitting the fan, even the slightest quarantine means millions lose their jobs and the economy goes into a permanent tailspin. I don't see how any of us medical folks can talk reason to the political establishment. Half-assed shutdowns and restarts are going to be the norm as the politicians freak out about getting re-elected and people (rightly) get concerned about keeping a roof over their heads

Agreed. We've been in **** or get off the pot territory for weeks.
 
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Really wish we had valid Chinese data to learn from. They could be suffering >10% fatality rates like France and Italy and Spain for all we know. Being weeks further into their epidemic, could tell the world a lot about what to expect.
 
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Really wish we had valid Chinese data to learn from. They could be suffering >10% fatality rates like France and Italy and Spain for all we know. Being weeks further into their epidemic, could tell the world a lot about what to expect.

All the Chinese data we have right now:

1586986438934.png
 
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Really wish we had valid Chinese data to learn from. They could be suffering >10% fatality rates like France and Italy and Spain for all we know. Being weeks further into their epidemic, could tell the world a lot about what to expect.

Even if we had it, it would probably be manipulated and inaccurate.
 
this thread is garbage can we go back to speculating about aways plz
 
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this thread is garbage can we go back to speculating about aways plz

Agreed... okay chances that they actually open VSAS back up on April 29th....
 
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Agreed... okay chances that they actually open VSAS back up on April 29th....

I think they kick the can down the road another 2-4 weeks and then cancel aways at some point in early May.
 
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For the sake of argument, say VSAS closes for the remainder of the year. Is there anything contractually OBLIGATING programs from accepting visiting students OUTSIDE of VSAS/VSLO? Could the hospital in Idaho or West Virginia just say, "We have next to no COVID here, let's get some students in so they can get experience and LORs"?
 
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For the sake of argument, say VSAS closes for the remainder of the year. Is there anything contractually OBLIGATING programs from accepting visiting students OUTSIDE of VSAS/VSLO? Could the hospital in Idaho or West Virginia just say, "We have next to no COVID here, let's get some students in so they can get experience and LORs"?

I don't know if there's a contractual rule, but I can tell you I think a hospital that does such a thing is asking for trouble.
 
I don't know if there's a contractual rule, but I can tell you I think a hospital that does such a thing is asking for trouble.

Once again, this is how DO students get their 4th year rotations done. I’m sorry, but some concessions will have to be made. The all or nothing route simply will not work, at least for us and if there are MD programs without home hospitals.

I’m beating a dead horse replying to this thread, it serves zero purpose other than to get my heart rate up, but I sure hope those making the ultimate decisions allow for leniency for those of us who need it.


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Once again, this is how DO students get their 4th year rotations done. I’m sorry, but some concessions will have to be made. The all or nothing route simply will not work, at least for us and if there are MD programs without home hospitals.

I’m beating a dead horse replying to this thread, it serves zero purpose other than to get my heart rate up, but I sure hope those making the ultimate decisions allow for leniency for those of us who need it.


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He is a DO.
 
Then he should know perfectly well why myself and others are so angsty about this subject

Not sure how many times I can say that I do understand and defend the angst, both here and on the DO board. Just because I maintain that your need for rotations doesn't outweigh everyone else's need to be healthy and safe doesn't mean I don't understand.
 
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Not that anyone cares what efle on SDN thinks, but again, if I'm at that table the patients win over the MS4s eleven times out of ten.
 
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Then explain gently what MS4s with no home programs have to do in their 4th year.
If the required cores are all knocked out and it's just a need for elective credits to meet grad requirements? Chop down the required hours and provide the same BS we've been doing all over the country for the last few weeks, I guess. No degree of logistical difficulty is worth the patient safety risk. We'd need titer checks or something first, imo.
 
Not that anyone cares what efle on SDN thinks, but again, if I'm at that table the patients win over the MS4s eleven times out of ten.
I mean.... you could say that about any given year. But some hospitals have elected to care about and participate in medical education.

And in the grand scheme for “patients”, we need to keep the flow of doctors and residents which requires... training medical students.
 
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Not that anyone cares what efle on SDN thinks, but again, if I'm at that table the patients win over the MS4s eleven times out of ten.
If the required cores are all knocked out and it's just a need for elective credits to meet grad requirements? Chop down the required hours and provide the same BS we've been doing all over the country for the last few weeks, I guess. No degree of logistical difficulty is worth the patient safety risk. We'd need titer checks or something first, imo.

I agree and disagree. In many ways I understand the idea behind no auditions and I truly think we are heading towards a complete ban on all audition type rotations, however I think it would be a huge mistake to just tell students at these schools that they don't get to do rotations of any sort just because they don't have a home hospital. In many ways this highlights the problem with many of these "community" medical schools (most DO ones and a growing number of MD). Perhaps there is a way they can only rotate at school affiliates in a certain geographical area.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but I think it's ridiculous to just go, "too bad you don't have a home hospital, you get to do aquifer cases for your entire 4th year and pay 100k for it."
 
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I agree and disagree. In many ways I understand the idea behind no auditions and I truly think we are heading towards a complete ban on all audition type rotations, however I think it would be a huge mistake to just tell students at these schools that they don't get to do rotations of any sort just because they don't have a home hospital. In many ways this highlights the problem with many of these "community" medical schools (most DO ones and a growing number of MD). Perhaps there is a way they can only rotate at school affiliates in a certain geographical area.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but I think it's ridiculous to just go, "too bad you don't have a home hospital, you get to do aquifer cases for your entire 4th year and pay 100k for it."

I think once there's a decline in numbers, those without home programs should get to finish out their rotations at ONE hospital. Auditions are too risky this year, but I agree that rising 4s need rotations or else we'll have an entire class of doctors who haven't been in a hospital for 14 months before intern year.
 
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I think once there's a decline in numbers, those without home programs should get to finish out their rotations at ONE hospital. Auditions are too risky this year, but I agree that rising 4s need rotations or else we'll have an entire class of doctors who haven't been in a hospital for 14 months before intern year.

I agree. There needs to be a middle ground. Programs would actively avoid these applicants as well knowing they would functionally be 3rd years on July 1.
 
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I guess I'm just confused because from a national stand point, it's pretty clear we're reaching an inflection point in cases and deaths. Obviously some areas like TX and FL are lagging behind and will hit it soon after, but come August, Sept, so on, we should be in a better spot as a health system. That's not to say there isn't a good chance for a second big wave in the fall. I just think cancelling all away rotations for the entire academic year is a bit of a stretch. But I can't tell if that's me being salty or being objective.
I don't think you're seeing it objectively. No one knows what's going to happen in August and September. Realistically, regardless of what the politicians say, I have yet to see any evidence that outside a vaccine, things will be better this summer. There may be a few less cases by sheer luck because of the sunshine and warm weather, but there is no reason to think that as soon as the country opens back up, we won't be right back where we started particularly as there's debate whether or not people already infected are immune.

I didn't take the time to read every single response in this back and forth above, but one should always be cognizant of the limitations of the models independently of disease characteristics like sensitivity to weather. None of the models really decrease the number of deaths. They're simply punting. When society reopens, the deaths and infections will still happen. You're basically shifting the entire distribution further along the time axis - it's still the same distribution. And that's extremely problematic if you then assume that infectivity is higher in the fall/winter. Because now instead of peaking in summer where the infectivity is low, it's going to peak when infectivity is highest and you get a whole lot of infections = so-called "second wave." It's really impossible to predict when it will happen until we have better direction from leaders as to when the restrictions will be lifted and how quickly they'll be lifted.
 
Once again, this is how DO students get their 4th year rotations done. I’m sorry, but some concessions will have to be made. The all or nothing route simply will not work, at least for us and if there are MD programs without home hospitals.

I’m beating a dead horse replying to this thread, it serves zero purpose other than to get my heart rate up, but I sure hope those making the ultimate decisions allow for leniency for those of us who need it.


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What am I missing? Where are you doing rotations 3rd year? Can't they send you back to some of those sites?
 
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