Hospital vaccine mandate?

[emergentmd]

How do you know if they are hospitalized or not? Don't you think maybe they go to a real hospital at that point?

Regardless, your anecdote is not the least bit consistent with the only published (as a pre-print, not peer reviewed three months later) data. In that likely best case scenario the NNT to prevent one hospitalization is actually more in the 30s. And that data is suspect in more than one way.

But if you have compelling data to show that this works, I'm sure Regeneron would be happy to support its publication including a generous author stipend.

I am just giving you our system's evidence which numbers well over 2K infusions. I bet we have possibly publishable data if we care to look into it.

Why do I think they did not go to a hospital ER? Because our pts are loyal and come to us first instead of the 3-4 hr waits going to a "real hospital"

I am just telling you what we saw. No pt receiving Regen that we know of returned to our Er with covid pneumonia, hypoxia, or needing hospitalization. We had a good amount that refused initially then coming back with Pneumonia/hypoxia.

I do not have data to prove what I am saying, I am not saying we have some statistically significant data. I am saying that from my POV, Regen is effective. If you don't believe it then, go ahead and tell pts to take vitamins and come back when they need Oxygen.

I am a firm believer that it works and many PCPs in the community agrees

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[GeneralVeers]

I can't prove it but I am quite sure Biden got involved before he announced it. We could order and get Regen essentially within 24-48 hrs. Our last shipment was delayed for close to a week. We kept asking what the delay was without a clear answer. Then suddenly Biden sends out his takeover of Mab.

I can connect the dots.

Let's be clear: HE didn't send out anything.

 

[emergentmd]

So you're arguing that it's ok for a restaurant to refuse service for not wearing shoes (or a mask), did I get that right?

I think we agree - this is not about "personal liberty". That's why I pointed it out. People argue that the mask and vaccine controversy are about "personal liberty". They clearly are not.

Private companies should be allowed to do what the heck they want, serve who they want, serve whatever they want if they do not discriminate against a protected class. Let the market decides if their decisions is correct.

I am an unprotected minority class. If someone do not want to serve me, then great I find another. I don't throw a big stink or cry discrimination.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Private companies should be allowed to do what the heck they want, serve who they want, serve whatever they want if they do not discriminate against a protected class. Let the market decides if their decisions is correct.

I am an unprotected minority class. If someone do not want to serve me, then great I find another. I don't throw a big stink or cry discrimination.

Same here. If a business wants me to show private medical information to enter, I'll leave. Likewise once mask mandates are lifted (again) I'll only go to businesses that don't enforce this.

A nearby restaurant doesn't enforce mask mandates so we go there all the time, and they actually get increased business because of it.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I can't prove it but I am quite sure Biden got involved before he announced it. We could order and get Regen essentially within 24-48 hrs. Our last shipment was delayed for close to a week. We kept asking what the delay was without a clear answer. Then suddenly Biden sends out his takeover of Mab.

I can connect the dots.

Or maybe you just don't have the demand we do. We've been routinely running out since late July.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Same here. If a business wants me to show private medical information to enter, I'll leave. Likewise once mask mandates are lifted (again) I'll only go to businesses that don't enforce this.

A nearby restaurant doesn't enforce mask mandates so we go there all the time, and they actually get increased business because of it.

Its funny, most of the private schools in our state are requiring masks while none of the public schools can. The private schools pretty much universally have record enrollments even compared to last year.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Its funny, most of the private schools in our state are requiring masks while none of the public schools can. The private schools pretty much universally have record enrollments even compared to last year.

I have no objection to that. Let the parents choose whether or not their kids wear masks. Let the market decide these things, not government.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I have no objection to that. Let the parents choose whether or not their kids wear masks. Let the market decide these things, not government.

My main beef is two-fold.

First, private school is expensive. That means its not an option for everyone. By itself that isn't always a huge problem, so we get to...

Second, in my state schools are forbidden to require masks AND are limited to 5% of students doing virtual learning. So even if you don't want to send your kid to in-person learning given the lack of universal masking, you're stuck unless you were really on the ball when that opened up. Want to ban mask mandates? Then allow whoever wants to go virtual to do so. Its the combination here that I find troubling.

 

[coachB]

I am just giving you our system's evidence which numbers well over 2K infusions. I bet we have possibly publishable data if we care to look into it.

Why do I think they did not go to a hospital ER? Because our pts are loyal and come to us first instead of the 3-4 hr waits going to a "real hospital"

I am just telling you what we saw. No pt receiving Regen that we know of returned to our Er with covid pneumonia, hypoxia, or needing hospitalization. We had a good amount that refused initially then coming back with Pneumonia/hypoxia.

I do not have data to prove what I am saying, I am not saying we have some statistically significant data. I am saying that from my POV, Regen is effective. If you don't believe it then, go ahead and tell pts to take vitamins and come back when they need Oxygen.

I am a firm believer that it works and many PCPs in the community agrees

No, you are not giving any evidence, you are telling a story and you seem to be oblivious to the limitations. I didn't you could pack in that many logical fallacies such a small space.

Why do you think it is performing so much better in your environment than in the clinical trial?

 

[emergentmd]

No, you are not giving any evidence, you are telling a story and you seem to be oblivious to the limitations. I didn't you could pack in that many logical fallacies such a small space.

Why do you think it is performing so much better in your environment than in the clinical trial?

I have no evidence just as alot of stuff we do in medicine is not evidence based. We all practice medicine outside the box or in gray zones. I am sure you are too. or do you deny everyone ankle xrays b/c they don't fit Ottawa?

Mab infusion centers are popping up in most major cities backed by the government. We all could be wrong to give it. But I will elect to practice outside strictly proven studies rather than telling all my covid pts to take vitamins and come back to be admitted when they need oxygen.

If I were unvaccinated, got covid, I would be the first in line for it. If you chose to take vitamins, great b/c that is the greatness of free will.

 

[emergentmd]

My main beef is two-fold.

First, private school is expensive. That means its not an option for everyone. By itself that isn't always a huge problem, so we get to...

Second, in my state schools are forbidden to require masks AND are limited to 5% of students doing virtual learning. So even if you don't want to send your kid to in-person learning given the lack of universal masking, you're stuck unless you were really on the ball when that opened up. Want to ban mask mandates? Then allow whoever wants to go virtual to do so. Its the combination here that I find troubling.

There is a portion of the population where private schools are not an option. But for a large portion, it is how you chose to spend your money.

I get tired of people complaining that Public schools do not require masks but then spend thousands on nonsense, expensive vacations, remodeling their homes.

Many have a choice and they chose to spend their money on other stuff. Its just easier to complain than making tough decisions.

 

[GeneralVeers]

My main beef is two-fold.

First, private school is expensive. That means its not an option for everyone. By itself that isn't always a huge problem, so we get to...

Second, in my state schools are forbidden to require masks AND are limited to 5% of students doing virtual learning. So even if you don't want to send your kid to in-person learning given the lack of universal masking, you're stuck unless you were really on the ball when that opened up. Want to ban mask mandates? Then allow whoever wants to go virtual to do so. Its the combination here that I find troubling.

Well, since masks work, why can't parents just choose to send their kids to school with masks? I don't understand the problem. Distance learning is insufficient.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Well, since masks work, why can't parents just choose to send their kids to school with masks? I don't understand the problem. Distance learning is insufficient.

Distance learning keeps happening anyway. Every week here we are treated to entire schools that are closing for 2 weeks because of the huge numbers of teachers and students who are having to quarantine.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Distance learning keeps happening anyway. Every week here we are treated to entire schools that are closing for 2 weeks because of the huge numbers of teachers and students who are having to quarantine.

Okay, but masks probably wouldn't stop that unless everyone is wearing N-95s.

 

[Birdstrike]

Distance learning keeps happening anyway. Every week here we are treated to entire schools that are closing for 2 weeks because of the huge numbers of teachers and students who are having to quarantine.

That’s because their quarantine policies are likely absurdly strict and unnecessary. My district recently had 14,000 kids on quarantine, 1/4 of the district’s students. It was absurd, with 90% of those quarantined being well children, asymptotic, not sick. They had to backtrack and loosen up the policy. It’s still absurdly strict, but they’ve reduced those quarantined by the thousands, at least.

The only positive is it’s driven the children’s vaccination rate up, because the parents have realized their kids are quarantined for 14 days for simple non-contact contacts. Then they’re back at school a day or two, and quarantined again. Their only way out is to either get vaccinated or to get COVID (which buys them a pass for 90 days).

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Okay, but masks probably wouldn't stop that unless everyone is wearing N-95s.

It did last year

 

[thegenius]

I am just giving you our system's evidence which numbers well over 2K infusions. I bet we have possibly publishable data if we care to look into it.

Why do I think they did not go to a hospital ER? Because our pts are loyal and come to us first instead of the 3-4 hr waits going to a "real hospital"

I am just telling you what we saw. No pt receiving Regen that we know of returned to our Er with covid pneumonia, hypoxia, or needing hospitalization. We had a good amount that refused initially then coming back with Pneumonia/hypoxia.

I do not have data to prove what I am saying, I am not saying we have some statistically significant data. I am saying that from my POV, Regen is effective. If you don't believe it then, go ahead and tell pts to take vitamins and come back when they need Oxygen.

I am a firm believer that it works and many PCPs in the community agrees

I think anecdotally it works as well, but we have to be extremely careful how we phrase this stuff. Because we are not studies, we are anecdotes. And the studies suggest a marginal benefit.

I never tell patients it's a great drug. I tell them it's like tamiflu. Kind of lousy. but it's the best we've got right now. I do say that I haven't seen anyone get really sick after taking it, but I immediately tell them it's just my experience and I've only given it a few dozen times. And my experience doesn't mean all that much and I trust published research more than my own experience.

 

[Mount Asclepius]

And my experience doesn't mean all that much and I trust published research more than my own experience.

I don’t know. Early on I went hard core EBM. Over time I’ve slowly begun to feel that my gestalt and experience matters more. A lot of the time the data is unreliable and the studies biased. It’s the subtle squirming of an aortic dissection like a kidney stone, vomiting and glazed over eyes of a head bleed, tenderness of a peritoneal belly, diaphoresis and look of fear in a STEMI, random colicky nature of intussusception in a kiddo, or just any pain out of proportion. When the test is negative, but you just have a sixth sense about a diagnosis later to be proven right. There is a spectrum of credibility for the evidence with anecdote at the bottom compared to meta-analysis, but sometimes the anecdote is the only thing that matters when the patient is laying on the gurney in front of you.

 

[Birdstrike]

I don’t know. Early on I went hard core EBM. Over time I’ve slowly begun to feel that my gestalt and experience matters more....

Evidence based medicine is important. However, as long as it's conceived, created, interpreted and applied by fallible humans, it'll be flawed. Helpful. Important. But flawed.

 

[WilcoWorld]

I don’t know. Early on I went hard core EBM. Over time I’ve slowly begun to feel that my gestalt and experience matters more. A lot of the time the data is unreliable and the studies biased. It’s the subtle squirming of an aortic dissection like a kidney stone, vomiting and glazed over eyes of a head bleed, tenderness of a peritoneal belly, diaphoresis and look of fear in a STEMI, random colicky nature of intussusception in a kiddo, or just any pain out of proportion. When the test is negative, but you just have a sixth sense about a diagnosis later to be proven right. There is a spectrum of credibility for the evidence with anecdote at the bottom compared to meta-analysis, but sometimes the anecdote is the only thing that matters when the patient is laying on the gurney in front of you.

I agree that a clinician's gestalt, when informed by a decade + of experience is very valuable IN MAKING A TOUGH DIAGNOSIS.

This does NOT translate to determining the value of novel therapeutics. After all, none of us has a decade of experience with these therapeutics.

 

[thegenius]

The last few comments are so sage and pithy! Gives me goose bumps.

 

[Birdstrike]

The last few comments are so sage and pithy! Gives me goose bumps.

I'd also like to add: Never make eye contact while eating a banana. Trust me on this one.

 

[Mount Asclepius]

I agree that a clinician's gestalt, when informed by a decade + of experience is very valuable IN MAKING A TOUGH DIAGNOSIS.

This does NOT translate to determining the value of novel therapeutics. After all, none of us has a decade of experience with these therapeutics.

Fair point. I was speaking more directly about diagnosis. I view medical care more so as diagnosis, because I think a lot of the time people just want to know what is wrong with them. I think we often over exaggerate the benefit of most therapeutics and ignore or don't know their side side effects even if minimal. Novel therapeutics also haven't held up the test of time like other established therapeutics. They become dogma (i.e. tPA) when an initial pharmaceutical company study claims benefit and there is great demand for treatment. Then studies eventually whittle that down to a very small cohort of patients, yet we continue to broadly use the therapeutic because of the 'standard' established. People become skeptical of the field of medicine because it claims to do more that it really does. Healing, improving, not always curing.

 

[Birdstrike]

New Zealand, Zero-COVID Is Possible Update:

New Zealand says it may not get to zero COVID-19 cases again

New Zealand may not get back to having zero coronavirus cases in the community, the director general of health said on Thursday, as the country continues efforts to stamp out the infectious Delta variant of the virus.

www.reuters.com

 

[bravotwozero]

#realitycheck

 

[Angry Birds]

I am just giving you our system's evidence which numbers well over 2K infusions. I bet we have possibly publishable data if we care to look into it.

Why do I think they did not go to a hospital ER? Because our pts are loyal and come to us first instead of the 3-4 hr waits going to a "real hospital"

I am just telling you what we saw. No pt receiving Regen that we know of returned to our Er with covid pneumonia, hypoxia, or needing hospitalization. We had a good amount that refused initially then coming back with Pneumonia/hypoxia.

I do not have data to prove what I am saying, I am not saying we have some statistically significant data. I am saying that from my POV, Regen is effective. If you don't believe it then, go ahead and tell pts to take vitamins and come back when they need Oxygen.

I am a firm believer that it works and many PCPs in the community agrees

I agree with this view as well, and I think we need to move towards vaccinations (yes) but also treatment.

 

[GeneralVeers]

New Zealand, Zero-COVID Is Possible Update:

New Zealand says it may not get to zero COVID-19 cases again

New Zealand may not get back to having zero coronavirus cases in the community, the director general of health said on Thursday, as the country continues efforts to stamp out the infectious Delta variant of the virus.

www.reuters.com

Shocking. Can't believe the zero covid strategy isn't working....

 

[Birdstrike]

This article from Israel, has a nice summary on the differences in vulnerability between being unvaccinated, vaccinated with two doses, and vaccinated with two doses + booster.

 

[thegenius]

This article from Israel, has a nice summary on the differences in vulnerability between being unvaccinated, vaccinated with two doses, and vaccinated with two doses + booster.

View attachment 343982

What a surprise.

Again...if you don't want to get vaccinated you should pay for all your own COVID related medical bills and not expect the rest of society to do so.

 

[GeneralVeers]

What a surprise.

Again...if you don't want to get vaccinated you should pay for all your own COVID related medical bills and not expect the rest of society to do so.

Just confirming what had previously been demonstrated. The vaccine reduces hospitalization rates which is good. It's still not performing as originally advertised, (it doesn't completely prevent infection or spread) which is why so many people are skeptics.

I'd say we should make all Influenza patients who don't get the vaccine pay their own bills. Likewise all smokers should pay to cover the cost of their heart attacks/COPD, and fat people should pay for their diabetes care and amputations.

 

[thegenius]

again - as discussed in the past - the harms from smoking and obesity take decades to manifest. Much different than COVID. This really has little to do with mortality. When 1/4 to 1/3 of all COVID+ patients will end up with long haul....which is conceivably 80 million people total over a few years...all of our premiums will go up due to the obstinance of 30-40% the population.

The R0 of obesity is 0
The R0 of smoking is 0
The R0 of COVID delta strain is 6-7

 

[GeneralVeers]

again - as discussed in the past - the harms from smoking and obesity take decades to manifest. Much different than COVID. This really has little to do with mortality. When 1/4 to 1/3 of all COVID+ patients will end up with long haul....which is conceivably 80 million people total over a few years...all of our premiums will go up due to the obstinance of 30-40% the population.

The R0 of obesity is 0
The R0 of smoking is 0
The R0 of COVID delta strain is 6-7

Our premiums would be much lower if everyone in the country wasn't a fat diabetic stuffing their faces. I don't really get your point.

 

[xaelia]

Shocking. Can't believe the zero covid strategy isn't working....

🇳🇿

It’s kind of funny to get down on the zero COVID strategy after it was entirely successful for over a year.

Now, yeah, COVID is in the gang and homeless community in South Auckland, and it’s proving pretty well impossible to stamp out.

Zero COVID was never the endgame, it was just a transitional state until vaccines arrived. Unfortunately, some other countries hoovered up all the first shipments of Pfizer, and widespread vaccination couldn’t start until July ….

 

[GeneralVeers]

🇳🇿

It’s kind of funny to get down on the zero COVID strategy after it was entirely successful for over a year.

Now, yeah, COVID is in the gang and homeless community in South Auckland, and it’s proving pretty well impossible to stamp out.

Zero COVID was never the endgame, it was just a transitional state until vaccines arrived. Unfortunately, some other countries hoovered up all the first shipments of Pfizer, and widespread vaccination couldn’t start until July ….

It will be interesting to see what happens once they open up. Hopefully they avoid the totalitarianism that seems rampant in Rooland.

 

[Birdstrike]

🇳🇿

It’s kind of funny to get down on the zero COVID strategy after it was entirely successful for over a year.

Now, yeah, COVID is in the gang and homeless community in South Auckland, and it’s proving pretty well impossible to stamp out.

Zero COVID was never the endgame, it was just a transitional state until vaccines arrived. Unfortunately, some other countries hoovered up all the first shipments of Pfizer, and widespread vaccination couldn’t start until July ….

Uh...That's some impressive goal post moving. First, the goal was zero-COVID until vaccines arrived. Then, zero-covid after vaccines arrived. Then when the vaccines couldn't get, or keep, any locale at "zero-covid" now all of a sudden "zero-COVID was never the endgame"?

Uh...okay.

While zero-COVID was a noble goal, it makes no sense to take extreme measures to get to zero covid, only then to let covid swirl around once vaccines have arrived. No population in their right mind would have agreed to sacrificing for that. It seems to me NZ took an aggressive "go for the homerun" approach and it failed. While a noble goal, still a failure.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Uh...That's some impressive goal post moving. First, the goal was zero-COVID until vaccines arrived. Then, zero-covid after vaccines arrived. Then when the vaccines couldn't get, or keep, any locale at "zero-covid" now all of a sudden "zero-COVID was never the endgame"?

All of COVID is about goalpost removing. Fauci said a couple of days ago that being "fully vaxxed" now entails having 3 shots! Also the Premier of NSW (a real gem) said that the unvaccinated would have social restrictions on them "indefinitely".

 

[xaelia]

Uh...That's some impressive goal post moving. First, the goal was zero-COVID until vaccines arrived. Then, zero-covid after vaccines arrived. Then when the vaccines couldn't get, or keep, any locale at "zero-covid" now all of a sudden "zero-COVID was never the endgame"?

Uh...okay.

While zero-COVID was a noble goal, it makes no sense to take extreme measures to get to zero covid, only then to let covid swirl around once vaccines have arrived. No population in their right mind would have agreed to sacrificing for that. It seems to me NZ took an aggressive "go for the homerun" approach and it failed. While a noble goal, still a failure.

No amount of internet wordsmithing to alter reality to fit your narrative changes the facts.

I'm sitting here in Oct 2021 and I've seen one lone COVID+ patient in my ED, the largest and busiest ED south of Auckland. A relative handful of people have died. When COVID switches from elimination to suppression/mitigation, the effects on our daily lives and the healthcare system of NZ will have been a fraction of the rest of the world. Someone sitting in front of their computer on the other side of the world saying this strategy was a failure doesn't change the actual 100% win I've lived the last 12-14 months. Go ahead and rely on your cherry-picked snapshot news articles versus actually living here, though.

Denigrating "goalpost moving" is rich in the context of a virus actively mutating and new scientific evidence available to inform medical and political approaches to the pandemic. It shouldn't sound absurd the ideas laid out in 2020 and even early 2021 have had to undergo change as reality intrudes.

The only failure anyone talks about over here is lacking the vaccines in as timely a fashion as other countries. We see Norway, Denmark, Singapore etc., other countries with strong public health responses already opening up with COVID as endemic, and we're still a solid 2 months behind them (we're about 40% first-dose, 40% second-dose).

 

[Siggy]

Just confirming what had previously been demonstrated. The vaccine reduces hospitalization rates which is good. It's still not performing as originally advertised, (it doesn't completely prevent infection or spread) which is why so many people are skeptics.

I'd say we should make all Influenza patients who don't get the vaccine pay their own bills. Likewise all smokers should pay to cover the cost of their heart attacks/COPD, and fat people should pay for their diabetes care and amputations.

Laws don't completely prevent murder. Ergo we should legalize murder. If we can't achieve a zero percent murder rate then we shouldn't have a law against murder.

 

[xaelia]

Laws don't completely prevent murder. Ergo we should legalize murder. If we can't achieve a zero percent murder rate then we shouldn't have a law against murder.

 

[Birdstrike]

No amount of internet wordsmithing to alter reality to fit your narrative changes the facts.

I'm sitting here in Oct 2021 and I've seen one lone COVID+ patient in my ED, the largest and busiest ED south of Auckland. A relative handful of people have died. When COVID switches from elimination to suppression/mitigation, the effects on our daily lives and the healthcare system of NZ will have been a fraction of the rest of the world. Someone sitting in front of their computer on the other side of the world saying this strategy was a failure doesn't change the actual 100% win I've lived the last 12-14 months. Go ahead and rely on your cherry-picked snapshot news articles versus actually living here, though.

Denigrating "goalpost moving" is rich in the context of a virus actively mutating and new scientific evidence available to inform medical and political approaches to the pandemic. It shouldn't sound absurd the ideas laid out in 2020 and even early 2021 have had to undergo change as reality intrudes.

The only failure anyone talks about over here is lacking the vaccines in as timely a fashion as other countries. We see Norway, Denmark, Singapore etc., other countries with strong public health responses already opening up with COVID as endemic, and we're still a solid 2 months behind them (we're about 40% first-dose, 40% second-dose).

I don't doubt your experience. However, you don't know for sure that when it's all said and done, the "effects will have been a fraction of the rest of the world." I hope for your sake, that it is. However, NZ could simply be the last location to be overwhelmed. High vaccination rates haven't prevented big outbreaks in highly vaccinated countries. Neither have indefinite lockdowns, since many other countries that have tried that, have found that compliance eventually has broken down. I'll be the first to say I don't know which way it'll go. Hopefully, it'll stay under control, for your sake and for the sake of NZ. If so, your country my be the very last to be able to claim they kept any permanent measure of control. If the population can stand it.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I don't doubt your experience. However, you don't know for sure that when it's all said and done, the "effects will have been a fraction of the rest of the world." I hope for your sake, that it is. However, NZ could simply be the last location to be overwhelmed. High vaccination rates haven't prevented big outbreaks in highly vaccinated countries. Neither have indefinite lockdowns, since many other countries that have tried that, have found that compliance eventually has broken down. I'll be the first to say I don't know which way it'll go. Hopefully, it'll stay under control, for your sake and for the sake of NZ. If so, your country my be the very last to be able to claim they kept any permanent measure of control. If the population can stand it.

No, but high vaccination rates can/do prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed. If NZ gets a really good vaccination rate then even if they do get outbreaks its highly unlikely they will have to delay surgery or open triage tents in the hospital parking lots.

 

[WilcoWorld]

Just confirming what had previously been demonstrated. The vaccine reduces hospitalization rates which is good. It's still not performing as originally advertised, (it doesn't completely prevent infection or spread) which is why so many people are skeptics.

I'd say we should make all Influenza patients who don't get the vaccine pay their own bills. Likewise all smokers should pay to cover the cost of their heart attacks/COPD, and fat people should pay for their diabetes care and amputations.

1) I don't remember the vaccine being advertised as "completely prevent[ing] infection or spread". Pretty sure that's a goal post you erected.
2) Should coal and mineral mines pay to clean up the environmental damage left after the mining is done? They don't now.

 

[Birdstrike]

No, but high vaccination rates can/do prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed. If NZ gets a really good vaccination rate then even if they do get outbreaks its highly unlikely they will have to delay surgery or open triage tents in the hospital parking lots.

So, multiple years of lockdowns to accomplish “zero COVID” really meant multiple years of lockdowns to accomplish “some COVID, maybe even outbreaks, just no hospitals overwhelmed”?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

So, multiple years of lockdowns to accomplish “zero COVID” really meant multiple years of lockdowns to accomplish “some COVID, maybe even outbreaks, just no hospitals overwhelmed”?

And minimal death. Plus, didn't NZ have like 3-4M with no COVID cases in the winter/spring?

 

[Birdstrike]

And minimal death. Plus, didn't NZ have like 3-4M with no COVID cases in the winter/spring?

Yes, by extreme lockdowns, which they’ll need to continue forever, even after they’re fully vaccinated.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Yes, by extreme lockdowns, which they’ll need to continue forever, even after they’re fully vaccinated.

Hardly. We've seen that good vaccination rates makes COVID a minor inconvenience for 95+% of people. Once they're vaccinated, it becomes not a big deal.

 

[xaelia]

So, multiple years of lockdowns to accomplish “zero COVID” really meant multiple years of lockdowns to accomplish “some COVID, maybe even outbreaks, just no hospitals overwhelmed”?

Yes, by extreme lockdowns, which they’ll need to continue forever, even after they’re fully vaccinated.

Uh, what's your definition of "multiple years" and "lockdown". Also, "EXTREME lockdown".

Since I've been here, Christchurch has had 3 weeks of "stay at home" orders, all associated with this latest outbreak which wasn't detected until there were probably around 300+ cases already circulating. Auckland has had it a bit rougher, getting up on probably 3+ months of stay at home orders since I've been here. Outside of that, it's been, you know, full stadiums, school plays, concerts and etc. with no fear of COVID.

The events of the past 18 months are far more easily framed as "safe on this island" rather than "trapped on this island". It's been Real Good, regardless of your inaccurate representations.

 

[Birdstrike]

The events of the past 18 months …It's been Real Good

Fair enough. How long can you keep it that way?

 

[xaelia]

Fair enough. How long can you keep it that way?

Yeah, that's sort of the evolving question right now. Auckland is trying to avoid a situation like Sydney or Melbourne where they get up to 1000s of cases a day while racing the virus with vaccinations – while balancing the societal and individual harms of stay-at-home orders. Public health and contact tracing is trying to ringfence the outbreak as best as possible to allow as many people as possible to get back to normal life. Earlier outbreaks of COVID were easier to shut down, and not quite as widespread. The goal is elimination until it becomes unrealistic, which is pretty well balanced on a knife's edge right now. We're currently running about 10-20 cases a day, and it's not clear we can totally extinguish it as of yet. Better penetration of vaccinations will help, but it's been circulating in a subpopulation whose vaccination rates lag the rest of the country. It's not going "great".

From what I can gather, if they can get this outbreak back into the single digits with clear chains of transmission and no unexpected detections in the wider community, then the elimination strategy survives. If not, I'm not sure what comes next – the hospitals aren't ready for a major influx of patients, but folks still gotta work/kids gotta go to school. It's rather tenuous right now, whereas the vaccination landscape will be a lot better in December. It's pretty clear from places like Singapore that once you relax a little bit, it's off to the races with uncontrolled spread – but with sufficient vaccinations, hospitalisations will be a fraction of a percent of cases.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Yeah, that's sort of the evolving question right now. Auckland is trying to avoid a situation like Sydney or Melbourne where they get up to 1000s of cases a day while racing the virus with vaccinations – while balancing the societal and individual harms of stay-at-home orders. Public health and contact tracing is trying to ringfence the outbreak as best as possible to allow as many people as possible to get back to normal life. Earlier outbreaks of COVID were easier to shut down, and not quite as widespread. The goal is elimination until it becomes unrealistic, which is pretty well balanced on a knife's edge right now. We're currently running about 10-20 cases a day, and it's not clear we can totally extinguish it as of yet. Better penetration of vaccinations will help, but it's been circulating in a subpopulation whose vaccination rates lag the rest of the country. It's not going "great".

New Zealand is bound to have thousands of cases....even once everyone is vaccinated. I'm not sure there's a way to prevent that. The vaccine may prevent hospitalizations, but you probably will still end up with almost everyone getting infected eventually just like OZ is heading towards.