Apple Stock

[BLADEMDA]

Doze,

I sold Equities today and will sel1 more tomorrow if we are up again. My plan is 50% in equities, 10% in precious metals and coins, 20% cash and the rest (30%) in an assortment of bonds/fixed income.

I use my cash position and new 401K money to trade around my core equity position (buying on big market corrections and selling at new highs).

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[pgg]

Doze,

I sold Equities today and will sel1 more tomorrow if we are up again. My plan is 50% in equities, 10% in precious metals and coins, 20% cash and the rest (30%) in an assortment of bonds/fixed income.

Where can I read more about this 110% portfolio!

 

[deleted126335]

Doze,

I sold Equities today and will sel1 more tomorrow if we are up again. My plan is 50% in equities, 10% in precious metals and coins, 20% cash and the rest (30%) in an assortment of bonds/fixed income.

I use my cash position and new 401K money to trade around my core equity position (buying on big market corrections and selling at new highs).

Avoid the temptation to reach for yield with your bonds. Just grit your teeth and bear it.

 

[pgg]

All you Apple fiends who think they're such an awesome innovative company that can't go anywhere but up, I thought this was a good post over at the bogleheads forum:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=107210

Problem with these hot companies is that one slip up and they get clobbered. After a while, just meeting their earnings goal is not good enough for Wall Street. Remember Kodak, Xerox of the 70s how big they were?

And of course the amazing thing: Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) developed almost everything that mattered that distinguishes the personal computer as we know it from the minicomputers of the 1970s. Douglas Engelbart at Stanford Research Institute developed the mouse. But, everything else? BITBLT, overlapping windows, Ethernet, object-oriented programming, Paint, Draw, and last but certainly not least the GYPSY and BRAVO WYSIWYG editors and their "compound documents" (pictures in place with text). I don't know whether they deserve credit for the first use, but a very early use of the phrase "personal computer" occurred in the title of the 1979 paper, Alto: A Personal Computer).

An alumnus of the GYPSY and BRAVO projects, Charles Simonyi, went on to Microsoft to develop a product named Microsoft Word, while Steve Jobs and some key engineers got a tour of Xerox PARC, and after a look at the ALTO they quickly "got it" (and in rapid succession, so did Microsoft and Digital Research and--was it already VisiCorp or was it still Software Arts?)

I don't think this was a case of "it was in the air" and everyone got it at the same time, footrace to the patent office. I think this was a case of invented at Xerox, and Xerox had such corporate atherosclerosis they simply had no idea what to do with it. It may be hard to remember that Xerox was a "player" in the computer industry--their XDS computer systems were quite well-thought-of in the early 1970s. Much too late, they started ran ads about "the paperless office" showing workstations linked by Ethernet cables.

Oh, yeah, I almost forgot laser printers. Xerox had those, too, and InterPress, a sort of predecessor to PostScript.

One can easily imagine visiting Xerox in the 1970s and saying "Wow! This is the Future! This is gonna be Big, I tell you, Big"--and being absolutely right about that, but being totally wrong about which companies were going to make money out of it.

Jetfont emphasis mine.

 

[Mman]

Well, this means you should be avoiding those stocks right now as they don't look cheap.
Perhaps, when the GOP decides not to raise the debt ceiling because Obama won't cut spending will give you another entry point as I expect a nice 5-7 percent market decline.

I'm not buying those stocks right now. Just pointing out that for an investment, that's what you look for. A long track record of steadily increasing profits (and a nice stable dividend) and just wait for that company to be temporarily underpriced. Anyone buying a stock based on a forecast of future results or a gut feel of the next 12-24 months is speculating and not investing.

 

[DreamMachine]

"US stocks closing at highest level since 2007." I don't like the sound of that.

 

[GoodmanBrown]

"US stocks closing at highest level since 2007." I don't like the sound of that.

Are you guys still really bullish on gold? Over the last year, the S&P has increased over 3x faster. My precious metals basket is getting crushed compared to my S&P ETF. Just curious.

 

[pgg]

Are you guys still really bullish on gold?

Who the hell knows. Have a plan, stick with it.

Who would've predicted that bonds would do so well recently? Who would've predicted that the Greek stock market would've gone on a tear in 2012? Everything that's known is priced into every market. Nobody knows what's going to happen in the short term. Longer term predictions have their own set of problems.

I still like PMs, long term, because of debt problems. I have 8% in PMs. Of that roughly half is physical possession. I keep some of it in paper just to facilitate rebalancing. I have no idea where anything is going, so I own a piece of everything.

There's a good argument for not owning PMs since they don't 'produce' anything. But I think they've been sufficiently non-correlated with other asset classes over the course of history (despite the fact that everything, gold included, dropped in late 2008), so they have some utility there.

Over the last year, the S&P has increased over 3x faster. My precious metals basket is getting crushed compared to my S&P ETF. Just curious.

Maybe it's time to rebalance out of your S&P ETF and into PMs then.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Apple has cut orders for LCD screens and other parts for the iPhone 5 this quarter due to weak demand, the Nikkei reported on Monday, in a further sign the U.S. firm is losing ground to Asian smartphone rivals.

Apple has asked Japan Display, Sharp and South Korea's LG Display to roughly halve supplies of LCD panels from an initial plan for about 65 million screens in January-March, the Japanese daily said, citing people familiar with the situation, adding the U.S. firm also cut orders for other iPhone components.

The move, if confirmed, would tally with analysts saying that sales of the new iPhone 5, which was released in September, have not been as strong as anticipated.

Apple has lost ground in the $200 billion plus global smartphone market to South Korean rival Samsung Electronics and smaller Chinese rivals such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE.

Samsung said on Monday that global sales of its flagship Galaxy S smartphones had topped 100 million since the first model was launched in May 2010. The Galaxy S3, launched last May, sold more than 40 million in seven months. The new Galaxy S IV is widely expected to be released within months, and may have an unbreakable screen, full high-definition quality resolution boasting 440 pixels per inch, and a more powerful processor.

Samsung has overtaken Apple, helped in part by the popularity of its Galaxy Note II phone-cum-tablet, reinforcing the benefits of offering a wider range of handheld devices at most price points, while Apple rolled out just a single new smartphone last year globally, analysts have said.

Samsung is expected to increase its smartphone sales by more than a third this year, and widen its lead over Apple, according to researcher Strategy Analytics, which has forecast Samsung will sell 290 million smartphones in 2013 versus iPhone sales of 180 million. Kim Sung-in, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul, sees Samsung shipping 320 million smartphones this year and doubling sales of its tablets to 32 million.

No one at Sharp was immediately available to comment on Monday - a national holiday in Japan - and parts suppliers to Apple in Taiwan declined to comment. An Apple spokesperson was not immediately available for comment outside regular U.S. business hours.

Japan Display's plant in Nomi, southwest Japan, where Apple has invested heavily, is expected to temporarily reduce output by up to 80 percent from October-December levels, the Nikkei reported, while Sharp's dedicated facility for iPhone 5 LCD panels will trim production in January-February by about 40 percent

 

[BLADEMDA]

Apple has cut orders for LCD screens and other parts for the iPhone 5 this quarter due to weak demand, the Nikkei reported on Monday, in a further sign the U.S. firm is losing ground to Asian smartphone rivals.

Apple has asked Japan Display, Sharp and South Korea's LG Display to roughly halve supplies of LCD panels from an initial plan for about 65 million screens in January-March, the Japanese daily said, citing people familiar with the situation, adding the U.S. firm also cut orders for other iPhone components.

The move, if confirmed, would tally with analysts saying that sales of the new iPhone 5, which was released in September, have not been as strong as anticipated.

Apple has lost ground in the $200 billion plus global smartphone market to South Korean rival Samsung Electronics and smaller Chinese rivals such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE.

Samsung said on Monday that global sales of its flagship Galaxy S smartphones had topped 100 million since the first model was launched in May 2010. The Galaxy S3, launched last May, sold more than 40 million in seven months. The new Galaxy S IV is widely expected to be released within months, and may have an unbreakable screen, full high-definition quality resolution boasting 440 pixels per inch, and a more powerful processor.

Samsung has overtaken Apple, helped in part by the popularity of its Galaxy Note II phone-cum-tablet, reinforcing the benefits of offering a wider range of handheld devices at most price points, while Apple rolled out just a single new smartphone last year globally, analysts have said.

Samsung is expected to increase its smartphone sales by more than a third this year, and widen its lead over Apple, according to researcher Strategy Analytics, which has forecast Samsung will sell 290 million smartphones in 2013 versus iPhone sales of 180 million. Kim Sung-in, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul, sees Samsung shipping 320 million smartphones this year and doubling sales of its tablets to 32 million.

No one at Sharp was immediately available to comment on Monday - a national holiday in Japan - and parts suppliers to Apple in Taiwan declined to comment. An Apple spokesperson was not immediately available for comment outside regular U.S. business hours.

Japan Display's plant in Nomi, southwest Japan, where Apple has invested heavily, is expected to temporarily reduce output by up to 80 percent from October-December levels, the Nikkei reported, while Sharp's dedicated facility for iPhone 5 LCD panels will trim production in January-February by about 40 percent

Doze was right again. Apple looks vulnerable as a company going forward so its stock price reflects this concern. I will be fortunate to see $650 stock price this year and may actually see $450 instead.

 

[DreamMachine]

damn 485 today

 

[deleted126335]

damn 485 today

I am merciless about:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax_loss_harvesting

 

[Mman]

damn 485 today

so Apple stock is on sale again for an even deeper discount? Good news for anyone that planned on buying some in the near future.

The only people it's bad news to are those that needed to sell soon for the income.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Apple 'Entering Growth Purgatory': Top Tech Analyst

A shift in Apple's growth rate means "tremendous turnover in the shareholder base," Sanford Bernstein's Tony Sacconaghi says.


A slowing of Apple's growth rate means "tremendous turnover in the shareholder base," Sanford Bernstein's Tony Sacconaghi said Tuesday on CNBC.

"Sentiment is extremely powerful," he said, adding that the momentum works in both directions. "The fear of numbers going down is what's making this shareholder base at Apple want to sell the stock."

On "Fast Money," Sacconaghi noted Apple's order cuts from its suppliers and said that was coloring investors' view of the stock.

Sacconaghi said that a transition was occurring in the stock, which had been historically owned by growth managers who were 1.3 times market weight. Now, those same managers are underweight.

"We have a stock that's entering growth purgatory. It stopped growing at 40, 50 percent a year. It's going to grow more like 10 or 15 percent a year. And when that happens, there's a tremendous turnover in the shareholder base."

Apple will continue to grow, just at a slower pace, and that will revalue the stock, Sacconaghi said.

"On average, according to our database, stocks underperform 25 to 30 percent while that turnover is happening," he added. "That's what's happening with Apple

 

[BLADEMDA]

http://news.yahoo.com/video/hope-paralysis-144026500.html

Watch this video

 

[Mman]

"We have a stock that's entering growth purgatory. It stopped growing at 40, 50 percent a year. It's going to grow more like 10 or 15 percent a year. And when that happens, there's a tremendous turnover in the shareholder base."

Apple will continue to grow, just at a slower pace, and that will revalue the stock, Sacconaghi said.

"On average, according to our database, stocks underperform 25 to 30 percent while that turnover is happening," he added. "That's what's happening with Apple

So basically Apple will become one of the cheapest stocks and safest bets you could ever make after that underperformance from turnover occurs? Because a 10-15% stable growth rate in a dividend paying stock is like a goldmine and how people get rich long term.

It just blows my mind that a company with such a huge cash stockpile and such a low stock price to earnings ratio could be considered a growth company. It's pure value. Apple's earnings are growing, just not as fast as some would hope so they sell the stock when it's already at a low P/E ratio and going lower?

Makes no sense to me.

 

[BLADEMDA]

So basically Apple will become one of the cheapest stocks and safest bets you could ever make after that underperformance from turnover occurs? Because a 10-15% stable growth rate in a dividend paying stock is like a goldmine and how people get rich long term.

It just blows my mind that a company with such a huge cash stockpile and such a low stock price to earnings ratio could be considered a growth company. It's pure value. Apple's earnings are growing, just not as fast as some would hope so they sell the stock when it's already at a low P/E ratio and going lower?

Makes no sense to me.

Some of my paid Experts who I subscribe to agee with you. They advise to buy Apple below $450 as it should reach $700 in 2 years or less based on valuation and earnings.
These guys are usually right (over 80% of the time) if you are willing to wait 24-36 months.

They see Apple as a "value stock" under $500 with an outright overweight below $450.

The reason I'm hesitant is that Tech stocks are the one area I've been burned the most over the past 15 years. Overall, I never was able to time the buying and selling of tech stocks and that portion of my portfolio has caused me to lose a lot of money $$$.

 

[deleted126335]

Some of my paid Experts who I subscribe to agee with you. .

Your experts make their money by selling their advice. Not by following it.

 

[countingdays]

So basically Apple will become one of the cheapest stocks and safest bets you could ever make after that underperformance from turnover occurs? Because a 10-15% stable growth rate in a dividend paying stock is like a goldmine and how people get rich long term.

It just blows my mind that a company with such a huge cash stockpile and such a low stock price to earnings ratio could be considered a growth company. It's pure value. Apple's earnings are growing, just not as fast as some would hope so they sell the stock when it's already at a low P/E ratio and going lower?

Makes no sense to me.

Apple has thrived in an environment with no price competition. That market may not last.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Your experts make their money by selling their advice. Not by following it.

Fast Money Traders said Apple should bottom today then bounce up. Longer term the stock price will be driven by earnings and revenue growth. In 2013 with a PE of around 11 Apple should be trading at around 600 by summer.

 

[Mman]

Overall, I never was able to time the buying and selling of tech stocks and that portion of my portfolio has caused me to lose a lot of money $$$.

Trying to time any market is a recipe for disaster. The surest way to make money in the stock market is to identify undervalued strong companies and purchase their stock when the price is significantly beneath the value, allowing yourself a 25-30% margin of safety or more.

This essentially leads to you buying when others are selling and then when the stock becomes significantly overvalued you sell and everyone else is buying. The problem for everybody else buying stocks is they tend to get excited when prices go up and sad when prices go down. It's human nature. It's been that way forever. But those same people wouldn't get excited if they went to purchase a car and the price was 5% higher today than it was yesterday. Strange, but true.

The only people that should be happy when the stock market goes up are people that will be net sellers of stocks in the future. Anybody that will be a net buyer should be excited when the market is down as it means a price discount on their purchases.

 

[powermd]

Fast Money Traders said Apple should bottom today then bounce up. Longer term the stock price will be driven by earnings and revenue growth. In 2013 with a PE of around 11 Apple should be trading at around 600 by summer.

I loaded up on June 580 calls yesterday. Also have a bunch of Aprils to hold through Q4 earnings. The number should be good, hopefully it will lead to a nice bounce and retest of the 50MA.

 

[BLADEMDA]

The pessimism that has pushed Apple's stock to its lowest level in nearly a year is "painful," a portfolio manager who owns the stock told CNBC Wednesday, adding that he hopes next week's earnings will salve investors' frayed nerves.

This week, Apple's shares sank below $500 for the first time since February 2012. Channing Smith, co-portfolio manager of the Capital Advisers Growth Fund, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" that the focus on Apple's margins is souring sentiment against the tech giant's stock.

"Back in September, Apple could do no wrong, and today they can do no right," the longtime Apple shareholder said. He said next week's earnings report could help restore confidence.

"If you get any type of the beat, we think you'll see a relief rally," Smith said, adding that the stock's fair value was well above $600.

 

[DreamMachine]

AAPL earnings, after the bell. Let's see how this plays out. Debating whether to buy an option or not.

 

[Mman]

"Back in September, Apple could do no wrong, and today they can do no right," the longtime Apple shareholder said. He said next week's earnings report could help restore confidence.

Just more anecdotal evidence of the "market" over-reacting to any and all news. In the short term it's a voting machine, in the long term it's a weighing machine. The secret to making money is buying stocks that nobody likes in the short term but have excellent long term prospects.

 

[countingdays]

AAPL earnings, after the bell. Let's see how this plays out. Debating whether to buy an option or not.

Aapl options are expensive!

 

[DreamMachine]

Aapl options are expensive!

They are cheap right now because the volatility index is low, unless you mean in the absolute sense. Yeah 1-2 grand. You're making big bucks now, what you worried about, son.

 

[DreamMachine]

So much for blowout earnings. Glad I didn't buy that call option.

 

[sevoflurane]

Ouch...

That hurt a little.

After hours slaughter.

 

[Mman]

So much for blowout earnings. Glad I didn't buy that call option.

The reactions of the market to news are always interesting. AAPL beats estimates in revenue by $500M this quarter and stock drops 10%. Year over year, the revenue is flat. In other words, the revenue remains off the charts sky high.

 

[ChiDO]

$460 afterhours......if it hits $450, I'll buy some....

 

[BLADEMDA]

$460 afterhours......if it hits $450, I'll buy some....

It may hit $425 or lower. Avoid the Stock until things settle down. Short sellers may drive the price below $400

Apple is a broken stock and though it looks cheap a broken stock always get cheaper.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Avoid the temptation to reach for yield with your bonds. Just grit your teeth and bear it.

I sold a few hundred grand in equities today and moved the money into global bond funds, emerging market bonds, money market and international funds.

I realize that the equity market looks great right now but I just needed less exposure to equities at this point.

If we get a 8% correction I'll deploy my cash position into equity ETFs or mutual funds.

As for my Apple position I'm a seller at $600 but I don't expect to see $600 in 2013.
Only a new product launch like Apple TV propels the stock over $600; otherwise Apple is a $500 stock at best in 2013.

 

[deleted126335]

I sold a few hundred grand in equities today and moved the money into global bond funds, emerging market bonds, money market and international funds.

I realize that the equity market looks great right now but I just needed less exposure to equities at this point.

If we get a 8% correction I'll deploy my cash position into equity ETFs or mutual funds.

As for my Apple position I'm a seller at $600 but I don't expect to see $600 in 2013.
Only a new product launch like Apple TV propels the stock over $600; otherwise Apple is a $500 stock at best in 2013.

You are taking some equity risk with the emerging market bonds. Bonds are for safety. Emerging market bonds give you a couple more percent yield, in return for substantial default risk and loss of capital. Take your risk on the equity side, keep your bonds really safe- treasuries, CDs, highest quality muni, highest quality corporates . Just suck up the lack of yield.

 

[BLADEMDA]

You are taking some equity risk with the emerging market bonds. Bonds are for safety. Emerging market bonds give you a couple more percent yield, in return for substantial default risk and loss of capital. Take your risk on the equity side, keep your bonds really safe- treasuries, CDs, highest quality muni, highest quality corporates . Just suck up the lack of yield.

Yes. But, Emerging Market Bonds from a top firm like PIMCO or Fidelity offers diversification. Ditto for Global Bond Funds. I keep the Emerging Market Bonds to about 2-3% of my overall portfolio.

 

[Mman]

It may hit $425 or lower. Avoid the Stock until things settle down. Short sellers may drive the price below $400

Apple is a broken stock and though it looks cheap a broken stock always get cheaper.

Apple is a great company, a money making machine. A stock price is simply a price tag for owning a piece of a company. The lower it goes, the more it's on sale for. Anybody ever trying to time a market to an exact price point is just being silly. It's impossible. Apple is back up to $460 this morning and might hit $600 before it hits $425. You just don't know. What you do know is if the company continues to generate windfalls of cash it will be a valuable company for years to come.

 

[countingdays]

Apple may be a dividend aristocrat of the future.
Yield of 2.1% with payout ratio only 6%. I'd love it if they decide to return money to shareholders. I'd also love it if they invested in the next hot new gadget. Either way, it's a good company. It's just hard to know when to buy. Too volatile to buy and hold for my tastes.2.1% sucks if the price drops 10% (or 30%)

 

[sevoflurane]

The slippery slope that apple is finding themselves in right now is:

1) They are cash hoarders.
2) They need to put that money to work and...
3) Come up with the next Wow... apple TV?
4) Right now... it seems that google is no longer playing catchup. At least that stock has been doing pretty decent.

 

[deleted126335]

Risks in investment come in two forms: Systematic risks and non-systematic risks. Systematic risks are those factors that affect the entire market. For examples, interest rate and inflation are systematic risks. Non-systematic risks are those that are associated with individual securities or a particular sector. Examples of such risks: fraud, insider-trading, mismanagement and accounting scandal.

It has been researched that there is no reward for non-systematic risks. As an example, investing in a single stock has a high non-systematic risk. In the event of fraud or mismanagement, the price of the stock could plunge or even be suspended from trading. In other words, the downside risk is so much that it could result in a very large lost. While insider trading is illegal in most countries, conventional wisdom tells us that this still occurs. Therefore, investors are always at the disadvantaged.

On the other hand, there is reward in systematic risk. The high risk due to such risk tends to produce high return on a long term basis. However, this does not mean that systematic risk guarantees corresponding high reward.

Non-systematic risks can be eliminated through diversification. Consider this: if one would to invest in 100 securities and if investment in one of the securities incurs total lost, the entire portfolio lost is only 1%. Non-systematic risk tends to occur in narrowly diversified sector. For example, technology sector tends to be influenced by the few very large and influential companies.


One would think that investment returns among individual stocks are normally distributed- They are not. FAR MORE THAN 50% OF COMPANIES UNDERPERFORM THEIR BENCHMARK.

A way to illustrate this: Think of a Microsoft after it just went public. Part of a Microcap index at the bottom of the index in terms of market cap. As its market cap increased, and it graduated form the microcap index to a small cap index, it was responsible for a disproportionate share of the return of the index. The same is true as it graduated from small cap to mid cap index, etc.

I don't remember the exact figure but something like 10% of companies are responsible for half of an index's returns.

AAPL: Love the company. Love the products. Agnostic on the stock price. I don't know anything that the market doesn't.

I think that this post deserves another read. It is done in the spirit of education. Not I told you so. The words aren't mine. They are cut and pasted from various sites.

 

[sevoflurane]

Nice Doze. Keep it coming.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I think that this post deserves another read. It is done in the spirit of education. Not I told you so. The words aren't mine. They are cut and pasted from various sites.

I hear you Doze and I'm better off listening to you. If I only I could keep my fingers off the "button" to buy/sell stocks.

I've limited my trades to 10 percent of my portfolio and I'm planning on cutting back to 5 percent.

By the way I hear you saying "I told you so" in my head anyway so keep up the sound financial advice.

 

[pgg]

Came across a link to this 2002 article on another forum.

http://www.forbes.com/2002/08/01/0801marketers.html


Entry #2 is an interesting read in light of everything that's said about Apple these days.

 

[ChiDO]

Green +7....must get to $400-425....

 

[BLADEMDA]

Apple is still worth $600. That said, I'd avoid it until it builds a base for a few weeks. Most commentators recognize Appple is now a slow grower/value stock so PE needs to be around 10. Apple looks good at this price but maybe wait it out another quarter to flush out the hot money.

 

[Mman]

Apple is still worth $600. That said, I'd avoid it until it builds a base for a few weeks. Most commentators recognize Appple is now a slow grower/value stock so PE needs to be around 10. Apple looks good at this price but maybe wait it out another quarter to flush out the hot money.

Apple fell to $393 in late June 2013 but closed over $600 today (and is up a little higher after hours. It's up 51% from that low point which is compared to a 17.5% return from S&P. Hope anybody on the fence was loading up when it was in the low 400s.

 

[deleted126335]

Consider personal finance as an academic discipline worthy of serious dispassionate study.

 

[kaioukenx]

No offense intended, but you guys sound ridiculous with your retrospective justifications and pseudo-intellectual market rationalizations. When people who have no insider information (i.e. every single one of you) trade stocks, all you are doing is a more socially palatable version plunking down Benjamins at the roulette table. That's fine, but let's call it what it is. You may as well be giving a play-by-play of "that night" in Vegas.

Preach on, Doze. One day they'll see the light.

 

[Mman]

No offense intended, but you guys sound ridiculous with your retrospective justifications and pseudo-intellectual market rationalizations. When people who have no insider information (i.e. every single one of you) trade stocks, all you are doing is a more socially palatable version plunking down Benjamins at the roulette table. That's fine, but let's call it what it is. You may as well be giving a play-by-play of "that night" in Vegas.

Preach on, Doze. One day they'll see the light.

Trading stock is not wise. Investing in stocks for the long term is very wise.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Still own Apple stock. I would like to exit my position around $700. I would have doubled my money at that point so maybe the stock will hit $700 at the end of this year or next.

Either way Apple needs to keep innovating or the stock will take a beating again.

 

[deleted126335]

Trading stock is not wise. Investing in stocks for the long term is very wise.

One should try to maximize return for every particle of risk one takes. Buying individual stocks is not the most efficient way to capture the equity risk premium. Passive, low cost strategies are the most efficient way to do this. Single company risk is historically not rewarded.

In the long term we are all dead. The long term can be a very long time.