Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

[anbuitachi]

Non-trad. Before medicine I worked for an investment firm managing large pensions in a certain sector. Just adding my 2 cents here and there... feel free to take with a grain of salt.

that makes more sense

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[Splenda88]

100% agree with you. I think we will have our current home forever (even if we move in the future). Barring a catastrophic event, there’s absolutely no way we could ever go back to apartment/townhome living.

Apartment living sucks. Townhome (not condo) living is mile better than apartment living.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Apartment living sucks. Townhome (not condo) living is mile better than apartment living.

Interest rates too high. Apartment prices falling in my area

 

[Yale Medicine]

In the broad sense we have the structural cycle with longer termed themes and regime shifts, the business cycle of growth vs trend, and sentiment cycle. After a decade of lower anchored inflation we had this tremendous inflationary spike last year, and there's been a fundamental shift to growth risk. The business cycle is late, notably low unemployment, high profit margins, elevated inflation, and risk premiums are low which is characteristic. Lately we see markets get stuck in late cycle, we saw this around the US regional bank crisis. There's mini sentiment cycles, but the business cycle is late. So the asymmetry to invest is not that great, so the upside is capped because you're late in the cycle, with that downside tail looming which the markets worry about. Several strategies to consider. We are dealing with credit tightening, US regionals going through consolidation, so this can create an opportunity for private credit to take market share. Low volatility stocks for reducing risk in the late cycle backdrop are trading at a discount relative to the S&P. Quality and stable dividend payors is another strategy for late cycle. Maybe even FX. There's a lot of focus on Alternatives, as last year trend following did really well along with macro investing. Lastly, option overlays have become more valuable in the long term sense, some are quite expensive due to volatility risk premium, long term structure, and skew. The environment really calls for much more dynamic and tactical allocation. The buy and hold, 60/40 portfolio did well in the prior 20 years but not as much now due to contracted cycles, risk premiums, and bear markets being smaller but more frequent. This is where we are right now in the investment landscape.

 

[anbuitachi]

In the broad sense we have the structural cycle with longer termed themes and regime shifts, the business cycle of growth vs trend, and sentiment cycle. After a decade of lower anchored inflation we had this tremendous inflationary spike last year, and there's been a fundamental shift to growth risk. The business cycle is late, notably low unemployment, high profit margins, elevated inflation, and risk premiums are low which is characteristic. Lately we see markets get stuck in late cycle, we saw this around the US regional bank crisis. There's mini sentiment cycles, but the business cycle is late. So the asymmetry to invest is not that great, so the upside is capped because you're late in the cycle, with that downside tail looming which the markets worry about. Several strategies to consider. We are dealing with credit tightening, US regionals going through consolidation, so this can create an opportunity for private credit to take market share. Low volatility stocks for reducing risk in the late cycle backdrop are trading at a discount relative to the S&P. Quality and stable dividend payors is another strategy for late cycle. Maybe even FX. There's a lot of focus on Alternatives, as last year trend following did really well along with macro investing. Lastly, option overlays have become more valuable in the long term sense, some are quite expensive due to volatility risk premium, long term structure, and skew. The environment really calls for much more dynamic and tactical allocation. The buy and hold, 60/40 portfolio did well in the prior 20 years but not as much now due to contracted cycles, risk premiums, and bear markets being smaller but more frequent. This is where we are right now in the investment landscape.

you left goldman sachs for anesthesiology?!!!?!??! you could have retired in your 30s!

you keep saying late. what do you mean by business cycle is late?

 

[door_to_balloon_knot]

In the broad sense we have the structural cycle with longer termed themes and regime shifts, the business cycle of growth vs trend, and sentiment cycle. After a decade of lower anchored inflation we had this tremendous inflationary spike last year, and there's been a fundamental shift to growth risk. The business cycle is late, notably low unemployment, high profit margins, elevated inflation, and risk premiums are low which is characteristic. Lately we see markets get stuck in late cycle, we saw this around the US regional bank crisis. There's mini sentiment cycles, but the business cycle is late. So the asymmetry to invest is not that great, so the upside is capped because you're late in the cycle, with that downside tail looming which the markets worry about. Several strategies to consider. We are dealing with credit tightening, US regionals going through consolidation, so this can create an opportunity for private credit to take market share. Low volatility stocks for reducing risk in the late cycle backdrop are trading at a discount relative to the S&P. Quality and stable dividend payors is another strategy for late cycle. Maybe even FX. There's a lot of focus on Alternatives, as last year trend following did really well along with macro investing. Lastly, option overlays have become more valuable in the long term sense, some are quite expensive due to volatility risk premium, long term structure, and skew. The environment really calls for much more dynamic and tactical allocation. The buy and hold, 60/40 portfolio did well in the prior 20 years but not as much now due to contracted cycles, risk premiums, and bear markets being smaller but more frequent. This is where we are right now in the investment landscape.

So buy far out VIX calls and sell puts. Got it.