with vaccinations rolling out / states pushing travel corridors there's a good chance we'll get in before 2022
I doubt it.
Reasons:
1. Optics/track record/resume.
Australia has kept community spread covid to near non-existent levels. So, in that sense, they have pitched a near perfect game. Therefore, Morrison is hesitant to ruin that track record for any reason (tourists with deep pockets, international cash cows- er I mean international students, even his own citizens stuck in India!).
2. Vaccine efficacy.
Vaccines are ~only~ 95% effective in preventing contraction of the disease. While I find that unimaginalby incredible given the circmustances, it still leaves that nuissance of 5% to ruin Morrison's track record (see #1). So, allow me to pop your bubble of opening the gates for a vaccine passport.
3. Blundering baffoons (AKA politicians).
Morrison's
flacid government has blundered at every corner, miserably undershot every projected target, and botched every opportunity to vaccinate the country- even with
a year's head start compared to rest the of the world. It's a classic case of performance anxiety at it's worst, and the one thing he is consistent at. I mean, really, I am impressed at his impotence.
4. Variants.
Chalk this one up to another reason Morrison does not want the "opening of the country" on his resume. Right now, only a measly ~10% of Australians are vaccinated. That was % last time I checked the news, which I have been trying to avoid like the plague (poor choice of words?) because it makes me sad. Even if- by some miracle - every person (incoming traveler and domestics) managed to get vaccinated, Morrison still fears the possibilty of variant strains alluding the protective umbrella afforded by vaccines, which he re-iterates at every chance.
5. Bottleneck.
His band-aid? A hotel quarentine system. The problem? It's slow. Space is limited. Lots of ex-pat Ozzies trying to come home take prescedence over students. And they don't even value their own citizens (see the ban on Ozzies coming home from India?)! If Morrison will turn his back on his own people at the drop of a pin, what makes you think he will so much as blink when we make our pleas to expand hotel quarentine capacity?
6. I want to speak to the manager...who is....uhm...
The feds don't like the states. The states don't like the feds, but need their money to open up more quarentine systems (see #5). No one is taking the lead. The universities are trying (or so they say- I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here because it's in their best interest to have us there- but, really? has anyone seen any evidence or fruit of their labors- UQ specifically?).
7. Xenophobia.
When people get scared, they blame other the outlanders and lock the doors. As our dear beloved Trump (Morrison's template) displayed, fear is a great way to manipulate an entire country.
Bottom line: Morrison sees his record as spotless- and does not want to soil it with Covid splotches.
I disagree. I think he has cut the hamstring of the entire continent. And I'd wager the families who have been torn apart for nearly a year & international students would take my perspective. But our opinions carry no water, that has been made painfully obvious.
Silver lining?
Rest of the world is opening up. Australia is hurting now. It will only get worse without two signifiacant sources of income (higher education and tourism). They've isolated themselves in a bubble. I only hope that seeing everywhere else adapt to a "new normal" will make his constituents angry enough with Morrison that he may actually do something for once. But that will take time. If we were a year earlier we would be good. A few years later, I'd think so too. Alas, we are at the wrong place at the wrong time. Up **** creek without a paddle.