daeojkim said:
Domestic trained MD's are never going to become the minorities. There are too many restrictions to allow foreign trained MDs to practice in the US and that restriction will be controlled by US MDs.
The biggest increase will be DO's, PA's, and CRNAs. However, domestic MD's will still be the dominating force in the next few decades.
As of now, MD schools are increasing enrollment numbers. GUSOM increased the enrollment from 150 to 180 last year. Many other MD schools are doing the same due to increased pressure from the government. In the 80's it was projected that there would be an overabundance of physicians around this time, but it turned out that there is a shortage, so there has been a push to increase enrollment numbers across MD schools. Even if new DO schools are being initiated it will be decades before their numbers match that of MDs.
If domestic MDs do become minorities, it will not happen during my life time.
sorry, but you couldn't be more wrong. if you'd like it straight from the horse's mouth, this is from the aamc article linked above, referencing attempts to increase enrollment at m.d. schools:
But those increases alone may still not be enough to meet the growing demand for doctors in the next few decades; current efforts are projected to boost enrollment by only about 9 to 12 percent between 2005 and 2015.
In fact, even with a 30 percent increase in enrollment that would result in an additional 4,700 new medical school graduates a year, the physician-to-population ratio in the United States will still decline by 2020.
"A 30 percent increase will only add about 5,000 new graduates a year, which is about half of 1 percent, when the U.S. population is growing at a more rapid rate annually. To meet the future health care needs of Americans, this recommendation is actually a modest one," Salsberg said.
enrollment increases at domestic allopathic schools are paltry, particularly compared to ostepathic enrollment rates. this is from a report from november 2005 by the north carolina institute of medicine:
The Osteopathic workforce has increased dramatically. There are now 20 osteopathic
colleges and 677 residencies. There are a number of schools on the planning board right
now, and enrollment already increased 53% from 6,792 to 10,388. Osteopaths now
account for 11% of physicians and by 2010 the number of osteopaths is expected to
increases 49%, twice the growth rate expected for allopathic physicians.
in the past year alone (2004-05 to 2005-06), osteopathic enrollment has increased by 7.1 percent (3631 to 3889), compared to 2.1 percent for allopathic schools over the same time period (16648 to 17004.) let's even be a bit conservaitve and say that the osteopathic enrollment will increase by 50% over the next ten years (instead of
five years as predicted.) with the aamc's estimation of about a 10% increase allopathic enrollment, in 2015, the numbers will look like this:
allopathic enrollment: 18,704
osteopathic enrollment: 7,778
that's in a mere ten years from now and assuming an osteopathic growth rate of just
half of the current projection, and even then osteopathic enrollment is approaching almost a full half of allopathic enrollment.
a specific example? the lake erie college of medicine opened a new branch campus in florida in 2004, enrolling 320 students between two classes. they expect a four class enrollment of 1600 students which, surprise, will make it the largest medical school in the country, allopathic or osteopathic.
and, of course, none of these numbers consider increases in enrollment from foreign-trained m.d.'s. so, if you don't think that the strangehold that domestically trained m.d.'s currently hold over the country is, at the very least, seriously threatened over the next 25 years, perhaps you need your head examined. i'm sure you'll be able to find plenty of good osteopathic psychiatrists.
post script - to clarify, i'm applying to 24 schools this cycle, none of them osteopathic, so i'm not a d.o. apologist.