This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
The reason why dentists compare to other professions is because you are comparing equally to other jobs that have similar education/backgrounds.

You can't compare a neurosurgeon salary to someone flipping burgers. Of course the neurosurgeon has it good.

What you can compare is an 8 years 500k debt 200k salary dental degree compared to a 4 year comp science degree that has 40k debt and a 100-200k salary. Or you can compare 8 year 500k debt 200k dental debt to 12 year medicine 100-300k debt and X amount of income.

Of course dentists, doctors, pharmacists have it good compared to the general population. But we are comparing similar degrees with expertise and time involved.- and when you do THAT. You realize that dentistry is a crappy deal if you have to take on alot of debt.
I agree but you have to understand that virtually ALL dentists can go out there and make 250-300k. Maybe ~10% of computer science major make 250k+. Also, people in technology got scared whenever some idiot on CNBC mutter the word recession

500k student debt is outrageous, but 250-300k is not bad if you have the potential to make that much in a year as well.

Members don't see this ad.
 
  • Like
  • Dislike
Reactions: 1 users
I agree but you have to understand that virtually ALL dentists can go out there and make 250-300k. Maybe ~10% of computer science major make 250k+. Also, people in technology got scared whenever some idiot on CNBC mutter the word recession

500k student debt is outrageous, but 250-300k is not bad if you have the potential to make that much in a year as well.

Yes 250-300k is reasonable. I would argue tho- the field is "declining" in all aspects due to inflation and stagnant reimbursement along with corporate entity takeover.

Computer science while it is hard to make it big, I know for a fact my friends all got inflation adjusted raises and or just job hopped and got a 20-30% pay bump in the past 1-2 years. My brother in law job hopped from 150k to 250k+ due to stock compensation. That's a 40% raise in a year. LOL.

I personally took a 10-20% paycut cuz I had to give raises to everyone and my costs all skyrocketed. And of course since I'm not FFS/OON I have to eat the costs. Sucks. But that's the reality of dentistry now-a-days. Declining income year over year unless you open more days, work at another office, or take a risk and go OON/FFS.

There's alot of dentists that have taken huge paycuts due to inflation- and dentists can't job hop. How will you "leave" your practice for another practice. It doesn't work that way. That's just the facts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
Tanman is in the top .0001% of dentists. One should not look at dentistry goals like what Tanman has achieved. This is not attainable realistically by any means. It's attainable with some luck and hard work, but the 99.9% dentists not living like this.

Most dentists are lucky to have 10 mil in their accounts before they retire. 1-5 million is more reasonable. We are upper middle class. Not rich by any means.
I think this is the goal that most predents hope to achieve after dental school…..$1-5 million saved for retirement…having an upper middle class lifestyle….being the top 10-15% income earners. When I decided to pursue dentistry years ago, I didn’t expect to become a multi-millionaire either. I just hoped to have a stable career (and not getting laid off so easily like the engineers) and a comfortable lifestyle. To me, making $300/day (which was the average pay for a GP 20+ years ago) was a lot; that’s almost 4x more than what my dad made.

Dentistry has given me more than what I had expected. When I was a 2nd year ortho resident, who was about to graduate, I expected to make around $600/day, which was about 2x at much as the average GP’s salary. My first job paid me $800/day……I was so happy. I graduated on Friday. I flew back home and started my first job on the next day, Saturday. And on Sunday, my fiance (she's my wife now) drove me to the BMW dealearship to pick up my very first luxury car......a used 3 yo BMW 740i:).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Members don't see this ad :)
I am a newer grad (graduated in 2021), and I make $200k working 4 days/wk and two Friday mornings (8am-12pm) a month in a pretty saturated metro area. As an associate my job is pretty stressed-free, when I clock out at 4:30 every day I don't have to think about anything job-related. So no it's not that bad. And yes I have thought about getting another part-time job or do locum tenens on my free days, but with my current single lifestyle $200k is more than enough for me so I'd rather just have those free days for myself to enjoy the last few years of my 20's.
If you can put away at least 15% (preferably 20%) of your income for retirement saving + pay off your student loan debt in 10 (or less) years + having a comfortable lifestyle with your 4day/wk income, then you don’t need to work harder than that. If you are still in debt (school loans, home loan, business loan etc), when you are in your mid 40s to early 50s, there must be something wrong with your work ethic or your spending habit. If you are not 100% debt free at this age, it’s not a good sign. Can’t work forever.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Yes 250-300k is reasonable. I would argue tho- the field is "declining" in all aspects due to inflation and stagnant reimbursement along with corporate entity takeover.

Computer science while it is hard to make it big, I know for a fact my friends all got inflation adjusted raises and or just job hopped and got a 20-30% pay bump in the past 1-2 years. My brother in law job hopped from 150k to 250k+ due to stock compensation. That's a 40% raise in a year. LOL.
To get paid more, these guys also have to work harder, especially when they switch to a better paid job. They have to work harder to prove to their new bosses that they are worth $150k-250k/year. If they can’t, their boss will replace them with more capable people. These engineer guys have to work harder to get paid more….. why can’t we, dentists, do the same? Why can’t we work 5 days/wk like them?
I personally took a 10-20% paycut cuz I had to give raises to everyone and my costs all skyrocketed. And of course since I'm not FFS/OON I have to eat the costs. Sucks. But that's the reality of dentistry now-a-days. Declining income year over year unless you open more days, work at another office, or take a risk and go OON/FFS.
Why pay your staff more when your office's production stays the same (or less due to insurance paycut)? Shouldn’t you try to find ways to reduce your overhead instead of increasing it? Can you fire some of your staff to save $$$ and work harder?

You make less because you choose not to work harder....and that's totally fine. If you are still on track to retire at your planned age (45 or 50) even with this 10-20% paycut, then you don't need to work harder....play more tennis with your kids. At least we, dentists, have the option to do that. It's not that easy for people who are living paycheck to paycheck.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Lots of jealous spouses/partners out there that won't let their SO have a nice vehicle for fear of attracting lots of people (namely women). Not saying it's not true nor unfounded, but it's spousal paranoia at its worst. I'll admit, it's definitely a magnet for a specific body part that I probably cannot mention here. One of the fun things about having the car.

Exactly, adding another car isn't a problem. We, as dentists, can easily afford a vehicle like that, but people prioritize other things. An index fund isn't going to make me happy. Having 100MM+ isn't going to make me happy. It's the experiences, living life, having the freedom to do what I want while I'm still healthy is what its all about. Although it doesn't make financial sense if your goal is to maximize wealth, there's only so much money you can enjoy. Think about how much money you really need and how much is excessive. As I've said before, the difference between 10MM and 100MM lifestyles isn't that much far off to be worth killing myself for it.

I take a brief hiatuses from SDN, and I just came across this thread… but I agree with this post.

To add to that… working 2 days a week in my early 40s makes me happy. Having more secure financial future through other investments makes me really sleep good at night. Traveling more makes me wiser and experience the world gratefully. Living in my forever home (with room to grow in) and never moving again makes me very fortunate. Still having my parents around in their 70s, siblings, wife and friends makes me feel very blessed. Yes, having the cars I dreamt of at a very young age makes feel very lucky (G-wagons and 911s are back ordered in most dealerships and now come with huge mark-ups!). Enjoying a peaceful life in good health makes me 1,000% thankful.

Plan life by stages to live the max if possible, don’t leave it until you get old. You don’t have to do anything other people do to make you happy. You don’t have to get married. You don’t have to have kids. You don’t have to do everything society tells you to do and have. It’s your decision to do everything you want without the fear of being judged. I paid my dues in dentistry, and I’m sure anyone can too if they focus hard, plan every day, work hand and accept the sacrifices on the way. Every day is another chance to get you closer to all the things you seek. Create your own blueprint and enjoy living in it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
I take a brief hiatuses from SDN, and I just came across this thread… but I agree with this post.

To add to that… working 2 days a week in my early 40s makes me happy. Having more secure financial future through other investments makes me really sleep good at night. Traveling more makes me wiser and experience the world gratefully. Living in my forever home (with room to grow in) and never moving again makes me very fortunate.
The reason you are able to enjoy all of these in your early 40s is you had worked hard when you were younger. Unlike many of your dental classmates who took the easy route (they took the highly paid associate job…..instant positive cashfow... instant gratification), you took the financial risk to open an office….you took out business loan.....you took a loss at the beginning when your office didn’t have enough patients. Being in more debt helped force you to work harder. And now, you are far ahead of your classmates. If you didn’t go to dental school, you wouldn’t be in the position where you are at right now. It’s not luck….it’s your hard work.

Still having my parents around in their 70s, siblings, wife and friends makes me feel very blessed.
Your parents are very lucky to have a good caring son like you. I am sure your parents' life is much better/more joyful when they have you (and your siblings) around, especially now when they are much older. It’s less lonely for them. I know you don't like having kids. Sure, you can hire a stranger/a nurse to take care of you in your old age but it’s not the same as when your own children are there for you….as when one of your child drives you to the emergency room and stays there with you. That’s your parents' reward (that they currently enjoy) for bringing you into this world....for working hard and making sacrifices to raise you into a good person.

Yes, having the cars I dreamt of at a very young age makes feel very lucky (G-wagons and 911s are back ordered in most dealerships and now come with huge mark-ups!).
Yes, you can still enjoy life while working hard. I'd rather work hard to earn good income so I can afford to drive nice cars in my 30s ....the type of cars that most young people in their 30s can't afford. I don't want to wait until I turn 60 to drive a flagship Mercedes Benz or BMW. It's nice to be able to switch to new car every 2-3 years.

To me, being in full control of my personal finance (as a result of the hard work) is much better (and less stressful) than not making enough (because of not working/trying hard enough). I don't consider working 4 days/wk a good life when you still have to worry about things like debt repayments, recession, job loss, decline/oversaturation of dentistry, inflation etc all the time. I don't like to live with those fears and uncertainties. That's a stressful lifestyle to have. That's why I worked hard to pay off all the debts ASAP. Job related stress is much more tolerable than financial (especially debt related) stress.
Enjoying a peaceful life in good health makes me 1,000% thankful.
Being 51, having a good health is also very important to me. I am glad that I can finally relax at this stage of my life. Those years of hard work have paid off. Many of my colleagues who are at my age still have debts to pay back. My cousin, who graduated the same year as me, still has a home mortgage to pay back. He's a MD anesthesiologist. I remember when my younger brother (who is 10 yrs younger than me) applied for med school, my cousin strongly opposed it and told my younger brother to become a dentist like me instead because he saw the nice lifestyle that I had.
Plan life by stages to live the max if possible, don’t leave it until you get old. You don’t have to do anything other people do to make you happy. You don’t have to get married. You don’t have to have kids. You don’t have to do everything society tells you to do and have. It’s your decision to do everything you want without the fear of being judged. I paid my dues in dentistry, and I’m sure anyone can too if they focus hard, plan every day, work hand and accept the sacrifices on the way. Every day is another chance to get you closer to all the things you seek. Create your own blueprint and enjoy living in it.
Life is a series of trade-offs. You have to give up something in order to gain something.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
The reason you are able to enjoy all of these in your early 40s is you had worked hard when you were younger. Unlike many of your dental classmates who took the easy route (they took the highly paid associate job…..instant positive cashfow... instant gratification), you took the financial risk to open an office….you took out business loan.....you took a loss at the beginning when your office didn’t have enough patients. Being in more debt helped force you to work harder. And now, you are far ahead of your classmates. If you didn’t go to dental school, you wouldn’t be in the position where you are at right now. It’s not luck….it’s your hard work.


Your parents are very lucky to have a good caring son like you. I am sure your parents' life is much better/more joyful when they have you (and your siblings) around, especially now when they are much older. It’s less lonely for them. I know you don't like having kids. Sure, you can hire a stranger/a nurse to take care of you in your old age but it’s not the same as when your own children are there for you….as when one of your child drives you to the emergency room and stays there with you. That’s your parents' reward (that they currently enjoy) for bringing you into this world....for working hard and making sacrifices to raise you into a good person.


Yes, you can still enjoy life while working hard. I'd rather work hard to earn good income so I can afford to drive nice cars in my 30s ....the type of cars that most young people in their 30s can't afford. I don't want to wait until I turn 60 to drive a flagship Mercedes Benz or BMW. It's nice to be able to switch to new car every 2-3 years.

To me, being in full control of my personal finance (as a result of the hard work) is much better (and less stressful) than not making enough (because of not working/trying hard enough). I don't consider working 4 days/wk a good life when you still have to worry about things like debt repayments, recession, job loss, decline/oversaturation of dentistry, inflation etc all the time. I don't like to live with those fears and uncertainties. That's a stressful lifestyle to have. That's why I worked hard to pay off all the debts ASAP. Job related stress is much more tolerable than financial (especially debt related) stress.

Being 51, having a good health is also very important to me. I am glad that I can finally relax at this stage of my life. Those years of hard work have paid off. Many of my colleagues who are at my age still have debts to pay back. My cousin, who graduated the same year as me, still has a home mortgage to pay back. He's a MD anesthesiologist. I remember when my younger brother (who is 10 yrs younger than me) applied for med school, my cousin strongly opposed it and told my younger brother to become a dentist like me instead because he saw the nice lifestyle that I had.

Life is a series of trade-offs. You have to give up something in order to gain something.

Absolutely. I agree 100%. Preferences change as we get older. I came to this country at age 22. I didn’t start dental school until age 28. I was literally behind the curve. I had so much hunger to catch up and craved to push myself to full potential. I hustled for 13 years after school to get where I’m today.

Speaking of getting old and lonely. A lot of people don’t look after their parents who sacrificed everything for them. There are also a lot of old people who don’t have good relationships with their kids. The fear of getting old is synonymous with the fear of being lonely. My parents didn’t save for their retirement enough and always joke about that my 6 siblings and I are their 401ks. The first thing I did out of school was open a practice in few months. The second thing I did was to buy my parents a home. The 3rd was buy them new cars. The 4th was get married. I’m in a much different situation than my parents. I can afford less sacrifices than my parents. Everyone’s situation is different, many dentists have parents that they don’t need to support. You just have to play the cards life dealt you with. My story is a traditional immigrant story, and I’m beyond grateful everything this country offered me.

Dentistry creates a big love-hate relationship, mentally and physically. I had no choice but to make the most of it, a necessary gig per se for my long term goals.
 
  • Like
  • Care
Reactions: 3 users
Yeah doom and gloom has been ignoring this. That job security of dentistry is a big deal. My friends also had to work pretty hard to get to 6 figures, it's rare to just be given that type of job out of college. At least in their experience. And now many are back to zero. No one talks about the 100 hour weeks that can happen for months on end either.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
Yeah doom and gloom has been ignoring this. That job security of dentistry is a big deal. My friends also had to work pretty hard to get to 6 figures, it's rare to just be given that type of job out of college. At least in their experience. And now many are back to zero. No one talks about the 100 hour weeks that can happen for months on end either.
People think it's easy to make 250+k/year. There is a reason that ONLY 5% of working individuals earn that much. That statistics alone makes anyone who is making that kind of $$$ exceptional.

You are correct that people underestimate job security that we enjoy in dentistry/medicine.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
To get paid more, these guys also have to work harder, especially when they switch to a better paid job. They have to work harder to prove to their new bosses that they are worth $150k-250k/year. If they can’t, their boss will replace them with more capable people. These engineer guys have to work harder to get paid more….. why can’t we, dentists, do the same? Why can’t we work 5 days/wk like them?

Why pay your staff more when your office production stays the same (or less due to insurance paycut)? Shouldn’t you try to find ways to reduce your overhead instead of increasing it? Can you fire some of your staff to save $$$ and work harder?

You make less because you choose not to work harder....and that's totally fine. At least we, densits, have the option to do that. It's not that easy for people who are living paycheck to paycheck.

There's only so much you can reduce your overhead, and no- I already run barebones. My overhead is actually excellent. 59% give or take. But regardless, you can only reduce so much. I don't have a fish tank, no waiting room tv, no cable, no extraneous expenses like netflix for patients etc, lowest subscription costs (just enough to keep the practice running), no fancy equipment etc. But if the lab bill goes up, and the subscription costs go up, and the market wages go up, then so does everything else.

You can work as hard as you can, but eventually inflation creeps in and that 59% becomes 61% to 63% to 65%. Just a few years ago I was around 55% or less. Every year there is an increase, and I have to figure out ways to offset it.
Yeah doom and gloom has been ignoring this. That job security of dentistry is a big deal. My friends also had to work pretty hard to get to 6 figures, it's rare to just be given that type of job out of college. At least in their experience. And now many are back to zero. No one talks about the 100 hour weeks that can happen for months on end either.

These layoffs are a drop in the bucket.


Amazon: 1 million to 1.5 million during covid...and now they are laying off 18k.
Microsoft: From 163k, to 221k, laying off 10k.

In addition, if you actually look into it, majority of this is middle managers, and lower roles- not your big tech guys. Yes there are developers getting laid off- but they are getting hired elsewhere. Big tech basically sucked up all the talent during covid- and smaller firms got left with nothing- now with layoffs- these positions are getting filled.

Basically- the doom and scare of tech layoffs- if you read at face value- look scary- but if you dig deeper- you realize it's nothing compared to how much they over hired and the scarcity of workers in the other tech fields since all the big techs sucked up all the talent. They are getting jobs left and right:


Plus they are getting raises and or not taking a payout from their previous job. As a dentist with a lot of techie friends- I know first hand that the field ain't doom and gloom. A lot are getting offers at banks, startups, manufacturing etc as those fields have been sucked dry of talent because big tech took all the them during the pandemic.

Don't worry- as a dentist- we will always have a job with declining income year over year. That's no problem, and I guess something in the grand scheme of things we should be thankful for.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I came to this country at age 22. I didn’t start dental school until age 28. I was literally behind the curve. I had so much hunger to catch up and craved to push myself to full potential. I hustled for 13 years after school to get where I’m today.
Facing life’s challenges helps make you stronger. My kids have never gone through any adversity in life. They have never worked a low paid entry-level job while they are in school like you and me. I think it’ll be hard for them to become a successful business owner if they follow my footstep to become a dentist. I don’t think they’ll be willing to work the way that I did when I was a new grad orthodontist. That’s why I encourage my son to pursue medicine. He’ll have to work hard as a physician. He’ll have to follow the work schedule (late and weekend hours) that the hospital wants him to work. If he can’t get in, dentistry is his backup plan.
Speaking of getting old and lonely. A lot of people don’t look after their parents who sacrificed everything for them. There are also a lot of old people who don’t have good relationships with their kids. The fear of getting old is synonymous with the fear of being lonely.
I don’t expect my children to take care of me the same way that my siblings and I take care of our parents. It’s different in America. I don’t want to be a burden to our kids. That’s why I’ve worked hard to save for my own retirement. I bought the burial site and pre-paid the burial service for my wife and me. I plan to live in the assisted living center when I can no longer take care of myself. Hopefully, my children and grand children will come to visit us on major Holidays. When I become very ill, I hope that my "physician" son will treat me or ask his specialist colleagues to treat me....less wait time.
My parents didn’t save for their retirement enough and always joke about that my 6 siblings and I are their 401ks. The first thing I did out of school was open a practice in few months. The second thing I did was to buy my parents a home. The 3rd was buy them new cars.
I have also done the same for my parents but I only contribute 1/3 of the amount because my other 2 siblings help take care of the other 2/3. We live within 5-minute walk from my father-in-law’s house (it’s a guest house in the back of my brother-in-law’s house). My wife brings food to her dad 2 days/wk and her 3 siblings bring food the other days of the week.
 
Last edited:
Members don't see this ad :)
There's only so much you can reduce your overhead, and no- I already run barebones. My overhead is actually excellent. 59% give or take. But regardless, you can only reduce so much. I don't have a fish tank, no waiting room tv, no cable, no extraneous expenses like netflix for patients etc, lowest subscription costs (just enough to keep the practice running), no fancy equipment etc. But if the lab bill goes up, and the subscription costs go up, and the market wages go up, then so does everything else.
Staff salaries are a huge % of your overhead. That’s where you need to cut, instead of increasing it. 59% is still too high. Opening only 4 days/wk means that your office is not at its maximum capacity….therefore, not all of your staff need to be there. Cut their hours....hire part time employees.
You can work as hard as you can, but eventually inflation creeps in and that 59% becomes 61% to 63% to 65%. Just a few years ago I was around 55% or less. Every year there is an increase, and I have to figure out ways to offset it.
Let me repeat again. Inflation hurts everyone and not just the dentists. A starter home now costs more than 2x as much as it did 9-10 years ago. So it affects every first time home buyer, not just dentists. Everyone has to work harder in order to buy the same house that their parents bought years ago. Rents have also increased significantly. That’s why there is a high percentage of the millennial who move back to live with their parents after college. Most of the new grad dentists don’t have to do that. Many new grad dentists here have claimed that they make $200k working only 4 days a week.

Working harder will help you make more money to fight the inflation. You should try it. You'll be surprised by how much more you will make by adding another workday a week and cutting your hygienist's hours. You will be a happier man and complain less about this dental field.
 
Last edited:
There's only so much you can reduce your overhead, and no- I already run barebones. My overhead is actually excellent. 59% give or take. But regardless, you can only reduce so much. I don't have a fish tank, no waiting room tv, no cable, no extraneous expenses like netflix for patients etc, lowest subscription costs (just enough to keep the practice running), no fancy equipment etc. But if the lab bill goes up, and the subscription costs go up, and the market wages go up, then so does everything else.

You can work as hard as you can, but eventually inflation creeps in and that 59% becomes 61% to 63% to 65%. Just a few years ago I was around 55% or less. Every year there is an increase, and I have to figure out ways to offset it.


These layoffs are a drop in the bucket.


Amazon: 1 million to 1.5 million during covid...and now they are laying off 18k.
Microsoft: From 163k, to 221k, laying off 10k.

In addition, if you actually look into it, majority of this is middle managers, and lower roles- not your big tech guys. Yes there are developers getting laid off- but they are getting hired elsewhere. Big tech basically sucked up all the talent during covid- and smaller firms got left with nothing- now with layoffs- these positions are getting filled.

Basically- the doom and scare of tech layoffs- if you read at face value- look scary- but if you dig deeper- you realize it's nothing compared to how much they over hired and the scarcity of workers in the other tech fields since all the big techs sucked up all the talent. They are getting jobs left and right:


Plus they are getting raises and or not taking a payout from their previous job. As a dentist with a lot of techie friends- I know first hand that the field ain't doom and gloom. A lot are getting offers at banks, startups, manufacturing etc as those fields have been sucked dry of talent because big tech took all the them during the pandemic.

Don't worry- as a dentist- we will always have a job with declining income year over year. That's no problem, and I guess something in the grand scheme of things we should be thankful for.
I don't think waking up without a job is no problem. Even if you have a quick turnaround theres no guarantee on keeping the same schedule, commute, housing, or job stress.

All jobs are affected nowadays. Nothing is like early and pre 2000s. I don't expect it to be. It'd be nice if the average american salary could feed and house a family of five today but that isnt the case.

People that want a good life work hard for it. Everyone isn't always under a/c, sitting down, or paid even a fraction of their real value. Dentistry allows a high amount of flexibility, creativity, and financial reward compared to most careers, and provides a vital service to the population. There's some good that you will do every single day that should give a little bit of extra value and satisfaction at closing time.

I will likely always differ on this issue. I am not a fan of acting like dentists are scraping by and missing meals because they cant buy the biggest house and bump elbows with celebrities. There's incredibly worse career situations to be in.
 
I am a newer grad (graduated in 2021), and I make $200k working 4 days/wk and two Friday mornings (8am-12pm) a month in a pretty saturated metro area. As an associate my job is pretty stressed-free, when I clock out at 4:30 every day I don't have to think about anything job-related. So no it's not that bad. And yes I have thought about getting another part-time job or do locum tenens on my free days, but with my current single lifestyle $200k is more than enough for me so I'd rather just have those free days for myself to enjoy the last few years of my 20's.
Just curious.. how much is your after tax income per month? (after Medicare, SS, federal, state, health insurance)

Also do you feel that your income can increase significantly in the next few years without working more/specializing/owning?
 
Staff salaries are a huge % of your overhead. That’s where you need to cut, instead of increasing it. 59% is still too high. Opening only 4 days/wk means that your office is not at its maximum capacity….therefore, not all of your staff need to be there. Cut their hours....hire part time employees.

Let me repeat again. Inflation hurts everyone and not just the dentists. A starter home now costs more than 2x as much as it did 9-10 years ago. So it affects every first time home buyer, not just dentists. Everyone has to work harder in order to buy the same house that their parents bought years ago. Rents have also increased significantly. That’s why there is a high percentage of the millennial who move back to live with their parents after college. At least most of the new grad dentists don’t have to do that. Many new grad dentists here have claimed that they make $200k working only 4 days a week.

Working harder will help you make more money to fight the inflation. You should try it. You'll be surprised by how much more you will make by adding another workday a week and cutting your hygienist's hours. You will be a happier man and complain less about this dental field.
Its not easy to get staff this day and age in GP office, decreased reimbursmsnets mean you see more pts to make up the difference, no one is going to work for you part time as an assistant, cut their hours and they move on to the next office or DSO. Only working 4 days actually is part of controlling OH, instead of string out the schedule over 5 days with gaps, consolidate in 4 days and less OH.
 
Can one reasonably keep the cost of attendance of dental school to < 350k? If dentists can earn 250k/yr, having a 350k student debt is not ideal but it is not big deal.either since you can basically pay that off in 4 yrs. Therefore, the typical dentist will be making 250k in their early 30s with no debt... They would be in a better position than their medicine counterparts.
 
Its not easy to get staff this day and age in GP office
My thinking is if a dentist doesn’t work 5 days/wk, he’s not at his maximum earning potential. I think many of my successful dentist friends, who are mostly asians, have this similar way of thinking as well. We hate debts. We hate high overhead and being over-staffed. A dentist can be less efficient with fewer staff and works 5 days/wk, instead of 4. His production will be the same for working 5 days (instead of 4) but his net earning will be more because he has less assistants to pay. One can easily save $45-50k/year for every assistant he doesn’t need to hire…..$100k for not using a hygienist. So it doesn’t really matter if there is a shortage of assistants in area…you just don’t need them.

I remember when I first started my office, I didn’t have any assistant. My wife worked in the front (in addition to her FT job as a periodontist). I worked in the back by myself….I wiped the operatories, poured models, and sterilized instruments etc by myself.

It’s tough for my son to do something like this. That’s why I want him to go to medical school.
decreased reimbursmsnets mean you see more pts to make up the difference
True. That’s why many of us, dentists, here in SoCal have to work more, see more patients to make up the difference. If we can’t keep our fees low and competitive and if we don't accept medicaid, the patients will go get tx at our competitor’s offices or at corp offices.
no one is going to work for you part time as an assistant, cut their hours and they move on to the next office or DSO.
Aslo true. That’s why I can’t cut the hours of my 2 F/T employees (my manager and the back floor assistants) even though all 3 my offices are only opened 10 days/month. I have to find things for them to do to keep them busy….like tracing ceph films, insurance billings, calling patients, making ortho appliances, mopping the floor, checking on the suplies etc. I only hire P/T assistants for chair-side assisting and they only work on the days that we have patients. It’s easier to find these P/T assistants on the weekends because they usually F/T somewhere else on the weekdays....they just need to work a few days at my office to supplement their incomes.

There are a couple of my assistants at the DSO who only work part time because they want to spend more time with their kids. So it works out great for both the employers and the employees.
Only working 4 days actually is part of controlling OH, instead of string out the schedule over 5 days with gaps, consolidate in 4 days and less OH.
If opening 4 days/wk helps control the overhead, that’s great….then the dentist still has one extra day in a week to work for someone else to increase his income….to maximize his earning potential to pay off debt faster, instead of sitting around doing nothing and complaining about the dental field. That’s what many owner dentists here in Socal do. They work part time at their own offices and work P/T at the same corp office where I work at.

If a dentist is already successful and 100% debt-free, then he can do whatever he likes. ColdFront only works 2 days a week and he doesn’t need to worry about making money anymore. Like him, work is no longer important and staying healthy is one of my top priorities right now.

If one really hates his job, he should try to work as hard as he can to get out of this miserable job as soon as possible. Why work less and drag out the misery for so many years? Why work less and have to deal with the debt repayments for so many years?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
My thinking is if a dentist doesn’t work 5 days/wk, he’s not at his maximum earning potential. I think many of my successful dentist friends, who are mostly asians, have this similar way of thinking as well. We hate debts. We hate high overhead and being over-staffed. A dentist can be less efficient with fewer staff and works 5 days/wk, instead of 4. His production will be the same for working 5 days (instead of 4) but his net earning will be more because he has less assistants to pay. One can easily save $45-50k/year for every assistant he doesn’t need to hire…..$100k for not using a hygienist. So it doesn’t really matter if there is a shortage of assistants in area…you just don’t need them.

I remember when I first started my office, I didn’t have any assistant. My wife worked in the front (in addition to her FT job as a periodontist). I worked in the back by myself….I wiped the operatories, poured models, and sterilized instruments etc by myself.

It’s tough for my son to do something like this. That’s why I want him to go to medical school.

True. That’s why many of us, dentists, here in SoCal have to work more, see more patients to make up the difference. If we can’t keep our fees low and competitive and if we don't accept medicaid, the patients will go get tx at our competitor’s offices or at corp offices.

Aslo true. That’s why I can’t cut the hours of my 2 F/T employees (my manager and the back floor assistants) even though all 3 my offices are only opened 10 days/month. I have to find things for them to do to keep them busy….like tracing ceph films, insurance billings, calling patients, making ortho appliances, mopping the floor, checking on the suplies etc. I only hire P/T assistants for chair-side assisting and they only work on the days that we have patients. It’s easier to find these P/T assistants on the weekends because they usually F/T somewhere else on the weekdays....they just need to work a few days at my office to supplement their incomes.

There are a couple of my assistants at the DSO who only work part time because they want to spend more time with their kids. So it works out great for both the employers and the employees.

If opening 4 days/wk helps control the overhead, that’s great….then the dentist still has one extra day in a week in work for someone else to increase his income….to maximize his earning potential to pay off debt faster, instead of sittin around doing nothing and complaining about the dental field. That’s what many owner dentists here in Socal do. They work part time at their own offices and work P/T at the same corp office where I work at.

If a dentist is already successful and 100% debt-free, then he can do whatever he likes. ColdFront only works 2 days a week and he doesn’t need to worry about making money anymore. Like him, work is no longer important and staying healthy is one of my top priorities right now.

If one really hates his job, he should try to work as hard as he can to get out of this miserable job as soon as possible. Why work less and drag out the misery for so many years? Why work less and have to deal with the debt repayments for so many years?
What I have found is alot of offices are open 5 days and the schedule has huge holes, and you end up paying staff to sit around. In my office we condensed to 4 since last year and production has actually gone up, and staff get paid 35 hours.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Finding part timers in a 3.4% unemployment world doesn't work that way. Oh well, just the new reality of dentistry.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Can one reasonably keep the cost of attendance of dental school to < 350k? If dentists can earn 250k/yr, having a 350k student debt is not ideal but it is not big deal.either since you can basically pay that off in 4 yrs. Therefore, the typical dentist will be making 250k in their early 30s with no debt... They would be in a better position than their medicine counterparts.
Unfortunately, there are very few dental schools that charge below $350k. Most charge a lot more than that. Even at my state school, UCLA, the cost of attendance is very near (or slightly more) the $350k mark. The recent grads that claimed that they only owed $300k (or less) likely received some financial helps from their parents.

It’s not easy to make $250k as a new grad dentist…..half as much is more likely. No owner would pay a new grad, whose clinical and communication skills are unknown, that much. It’s not very common for an associate dentist to make $200k/year working only 4 days/wk. For one to make that much with so few work days/hours, he/she must have above average clinical skills and a couple of years of experience. In order to make $250k or more, a dentist will need to work 5-6 days/wk and long hours like most of you, physicians.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
What I have found is alot of offices are open 5 days and the schedule has huge holes, and you end up paying staff to sit around. In my office we condensed to 4 since last year and production has actually gone up, and staff get paid 35 hours.
Agreed. That's not a smart business move if you open 5 days a week and have a lot of empty slots on the book....and pay the assistants for sitting around doing nothing. Open less days, see more patients per day, and work more efficiently are key. And if one needs to make more $$$, just use the extra days that the office is not opened to work somewhere else as an associate. That's what many of my dentist friends (and I as well) do.

Another way to avoid paying the staff to sit around doing nothing is to charge low fees to keep the patients in the chairs....producing something is better than making $0. The staff gets paid 8 hours/day to be there anyway....why let them sit around doing nothing?
 
Last edited:
So you actually cut the staff hours from the normal 40 hours to 35 hours. That's good. That's what I am talking about.
Yep, and they have the extra day to temp or what not.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Yep, and they have the extra day to temp or what not.
Yeah, you can cut their hours just slightly so they won't get mad and leave you. Many of them actually enjoy having an extra day off to do somehing else.

I recently closed one of the Saturdays and cut some of my part time staff's hours as well. They were ok with the pay cut.
 
Last edited:
Unfortunately, there are very few dental schools that charge below $350k. Most charge a lot more than that. Even at my state school, UCLA, the cost of attendance is very near (or slightly more) the $350k mark. The recent grads that claimed that they only owed $300k (or less) likely received some financial helps from their parents.

It’s not easy to make $250k as a new grad dentist…..half as much is more likely. No owner would pay a new grad, whose clinical and communication skills are unknown, that much. It’s not very common for an associate dentist to make $200k/year working only 4 days/wk. For one to make that much with so few work days/hours, he/she must have above average clinical skills and a couple of years of experience. In order to make $250k or more, a dentist will need to work 5-6 days/wk and long hours like most of you, physicians.
In that case, medicine might be a better deal... even FM/IM docs these days can make 300-350k/yr without killing themselves.
 
In that case, medicine might be a better deal... even FM/IM docs these days can make 300-350k/yr without killing themselves.
Yeah, I think medicine is a slightly better option….less debt and higher salary. But it's just slightly better because before the doctor can earn that $300-350k amount, they have to do at least 3 years of low paid hard labor residency. The dentists can earn a low to mid 100k income righ after dental school. The dentists can own a practice but it’s not as easy as it was in the past due to the huge amount of debt the young grads owe. Another problem is most young dentists cannot work in a low cost low tech office like mine….they want to spend $500-600k (which to me, is a big waste of money) to build a modern office.

For someone who doesn’t like to own a business, I think medicine is a better option.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, I think medicine is a slightly better option….less debt and higher salary. But it's just slightly better because before the doctor can earn that $300-350k amount, they have to do at least 3 years of low paid hard labor residency. The dentists can earn a low to mid 100k income righ after dental school. The dentists can own a practice but it’s not as easy as it was in the past due to the huge amount of debt the young grads owe. Another problem is most young dentists cannot work in a low cost low tech office like mine….they want to spend $500-600k (which to me, is a big waste of money) to build a modern office.

For someone who doesn’t like to own a business, I think medicine is a better option.

It always astounds me when someone spends so much money on crazy tech gadgets. At the end of the day a 10 cent cord does the same thing as an expensive laser or “expensive alternative to cord.” Same with crown and bridge etc.

Unless you are ffs oon then maybe it makes more sense as you can market it and charge more to.
 
Unemployment rate could drop even lower as millions of Americans lose their SNAP, housing and Medicaid benefits next week.

Great more inflationary pressure. I’m really close to dropping 1-2 of my lowest paying insurances and cutting back. Why work for less. Sometimes it makes sense to not even work because when you number crunch- it makes more sense to cut back and you make just as much.
 
What I have found is alot of offices are open 5 days and the schedule has huge holes, and you end up paying staff to sit around. In my office we condensed to 4 since last year and production has actually gone up, and staff get paid 35 hours.

Yeah… you have to be lean and mean to run a private practice. There was a global study that proved that 4 days working week is as productive as 5 days. I have stopped working 5 days six years ago, and my productivity has ticked up and payroll ticked down.
 
Great more inflationary pressure. I’m really close to dropping 1-2 of my lowest paying insurances and cutting back. Why work for less. Sometimes it makes sense to not even work because when you number crunch- it makes more sense to cut back and you make just as much.

Absolutely. Inflation is like having a big tooth abscess, it takes days or weeks for the antibiotics to fully eliminate it. We will not be back down to Fed 2% target until 2024 at the earliest.

I dropped a lot of insurances and increased my fee for service fee schedule by 20%. I’m ok with taking a risk with my mature practice, but other dentists with newer offices would see that as very risky.

Unfortunately we will have a recession soon/within a year. The question is, how bad will it be.
 
Just curious.. how much is your after tax income per month? (after Medicare, SS, federal, state, health insurance)

Also do you feel that your income can increase significantly in the next few years without working more/specializing/owning?
I take home $10k/month after tax (I live in a blue state with pretty high state income tax).
I think if I stay at this job with this 4-day schedule my max income would be $250k. It'd be almost impossible to make more than that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
Absolutely. Inflation is like having a big tooth abscess, it takes days or weeks for the antibiotics to fully eliminate it. We will not be back down to Fed 2% target until 2024 at the earliest.

I dropped a lot of insurances and increased my fee for service fee schedule by 20%. I’m ok with taking a risk with my mature practice, but other dentists with newer offices would see that as very risky.

Unfortunately we will have a recession soon/within a year. The question is, how bad will it be.

Yeah I dunno about that. Dropping insurance and raising fee 20% I’m pretty sure I won’t retain many patients but I’m glad you got through it.

Recession is debatable. My opinion is we see heightened inflation and a fed that plays chicken says we will raise rates but then chicken out due to national debt interest and the real probability of a severe recession. I think we just see elevated inflation continued and eventually we go back to 2% with no recession.
 
Recession is debatable. My opinion is we see heightened inflation and a fed that plays chicken says we will raise rates but then chicken out due to national debt interest and the real probability of a severe recession. I think we just see elevated inflation continued and eventually we go back to 2% with no recession.
We’re already in manufacturing, real estate, freight, etc recession. The economy being in recession is usually announced retroactively.

If you follow the money in the supply chain, you will see inflation is not going away anytime soon. Cheap labor has started to go away in China because of their aging and declining demographics, plus their recent Covid lockdowns - followed by their government stimulating/printing money like we did, they will sell products to us more expensive. Name 1 item that is built in China that costs the same as 2-3 years ago? Even the dollar chain stores raised prices to $1.25 for most, if not all, of their products.

Now, the service industry… as you know, that cost has shot up too for few years now. Restaurants, airline tickets, going to a concert, etc are way more expensive than 2019. Consumers, specially boomers are opening their wallets. Millions of social security beneficiaries received nearly 10% pay raise last January for cost of living adjustment. There is still a lot of Covid money out there that the Fed can’t drain out of the system fast enough, even with historic interest rate hikes. So they will continue to swing their baseball bat at high inflation until it comes down to 2%.

But here is the kicker…. Inflation in 2021 was over 7%, 2022 was close to 9%, this year will likely be close to 6% (last 2 months was in the mid 6% range and its struggling to drop below that rate), so that’s a total of 22% inflation over 3 years. Even if inflation comes down to 2% next year (2024), that’s nearly 25% inflation since 2021. We can’t dial cost of everything back to 2019 levels, the inflation damage is irreversible. Recession is necessary to swing the pendulum back.

Let’s just say the worst is still ahead of us.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
Great more inflationary pressure. I’m really close to dropping 1-2 of my lowest paying insurances and cutting back. Why work for less. Sometimes it makes sense to not even work because when you number crunch- it makes more sense to cut back and you make just as much.
If public payers and transfer payments exited the market inflation would go down. Demand would decrease.
 
We’re already in manufacturing, real estate, freight, etc recession. The economy being in recession is usually announced retroactively.

If you follow the money in the supply chain, you will see inflation is not going away anytime soon. Cheap labor has started to go away in China because of their aging and declining demographics, plus their recent Covid lockdowns - followed by their government stimulating/printing money like we did, they will sell products to us more expensive. Name 1 item that is built in China that costs the same as 2-3 years ago? Even the dollar chain stores raised prices to $1.25 for most, if not all, of their products.

Now, the service industry… as you know, that cost has shot up too for few years now. Restaurants, airline tickets, going to a concert, etc are way more expensive than 2019. Consumers, specially boomers are opening their wallets. Millions of social security beneficiaries received nearly 10% pay raise last January for cost of living adjustment. There is still a lot of Covid money out there that the Fed can’t drain out of the system fast enough, even with historic interest rate hikes. So they will continue to swing their baseball bat at high inflation until it comes down to 2%.

But here is the kicker…. Inflation in 2021 was over 7%, 2022 was close to 9%, this year will likely be close to 6% (last 2 months was in the mid 6% range and its struggling to drop below that rate), so that’s a total of 22% inflation over 3 years. Even if inflation comes down to 2% next year (2024), that’s nearly 25% inflation since 2021. We can’t dial cost of everything back to 2019 levels, the inflation damage is irreversible. Recession is necessary to swing the pendulum back.

Let’s just say the worst is still ahead of us.

I agree with all your commentary. Zero disagreements here, but I feel like we won’t see a traditional recession like what we saw in 08. Everyone is expecting a waterfall in the stock markets along with mass unemployment.

I just don’t see that scenario happening.

I meant to clarify that yes I do agree we are in a rolling recession meaning that certain sectors are and will be in recession. One could look at a dental practice and see that giving 10-20% raises along with higher inflation along with squeezed margins is a “recession” but the problem is unemployment is still extremely low.

The same with white collar jobs- overhired but getting laid off- but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to how many hired.

Blue collar jobs still an extreme need.

I get your commentary and the bears say it will probably become a traditional recession later on- job loss mass unemployment and lower earnings- but I personally think the fed will pause and or pivot before that happens as they know the effects of their monetary policy will bankrupt businesses and create a real problem.

So their alternative in my opinion is to raise rates slowly below the rate of inflation- continue to let inflation run hot which effects certain sectors profit margins and those that don’t have pricing power- and wait it out for inflation to dip to 2%. If the market gets ahead of itself they send speakers out to talk down the markets and if the markets starts dipping to much- they send speakers to calm the markets down.

That is the soft landing scenario.

The hard landing scenario is massive job loss massive business closures etc and a market crash. Ever since 08 the markets have been intervened by qe, the fed pivot and bailouts. What makes 22-23 different?
 
I agree with all your commentary. Zero disagreements here, but I feel like we won’t see a traditional recession like what we saw in 08. Everyone is expecting a waterfall in the stock markets along with mass unemployment.

I just don’t see that scenario happening.

I meant to clarify that yes I do agree we are in a rolling recession meaning that certain sectors are and will be in recession. One could look at a dental practice and see that giving 10-20% raises along with higher inflation along with squeezed margins is a “recession” but the problem is unemployment is still extremely low.

The same with white collar jobs- overhired but getting laid off- but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to how many hired.

Blue collar jobs still an extreme need.

I get your commentary and the bears say it will probably become a traditional recession later on- job loss mass unemployment and lower earnings- but I personally think the fed will pause and or pivot before that happens as they know the effects of their monetary policy will bankrupt businesses and create a real problem.

So their alternative in my opinion is to raise rates slowly below the rate of inflation- continue to let inflation run hot which effects certain sectors profit margins and those that don’t have pricing power- and wait it out for inflation to dip to 2%. If the market gets ahead of itself they send speakers out to talk down the markets and if the markets starts dipping to much- they send speakers to calm the markets down.

That is the soft landing scenario.

The hard landing scenario is massive job loss massive business closures etc and a market crash. Ever since 08 the markets have been intervened by qe, the fed pivot and bailouts. What makes 22-23 different?

Yes, I’m definitely bearish on this economy.

People forget the recession that occurred during the Volcker period, when inflation was at a record high and the Fed raised inflation to the moon was the worst of all recessions. Just like Volcker was late to raise rates to fight inflation, J Powell team was also late to tame inflation, and made a huge policy error with their transitory narrative when printed Covid money triggered high inflation late 2021. They watched inflation get out of control for 6 months before taking action.

It has been barely a year since the current Fed initiated this hiking cycle, the speed and ferocity of rate hikes may not manifest in the real economy and data until mid 2023, perhaps disinflation faded or may be we need a little bit more time for the effects of policy to become clearer. I’m afraid we will know the answer to how long, not long after we know final destination for the terminal rate, the impact of a frenetic rise in rates and the desperate effort to catch up may result in a severe shock that will surprise the Fed and markets. It is human nature to overcompensate for past mistakes, at this point I’m inclined to believe that a recession outcome has not really shifted that much, it is simply a matter of a few more months before we realize the Fed already over reacted.

There is nearly 1 trillion dollars of corporate debt that will mature this year, and nearly another 1 trillion next year…. and all will have to refinance from 0% interest rate to 6-7%. Lenders are already as restrictive about lending since the 2008 recession, so imagine when rates stay high for longer, with no Fed rate cut planned this year and mostly next year. Bankruptcies will just have to increase, mortgage industry will continue to remain frozen, and with the current high debt driven consumption on credit cards, high payments on auto loans, etc. There is no plan B to rescue highly leveraged businesses and consumers who see no immediate relief to bring down their cost of living.

Finally, the equity markets today are not too far from their March 2022 highs, when interest rates were near 0 with a lot of QE. Today, the Fed are super hawkish on rate hikes and QT and will likely push the markets into a credit event. Once we get that credit event, everything waterfalls and the market will tank unlike anything we've seen since covid shutdowns or Lehman. I think all this will happen in slow motion for the most part, unlike the sudden shock of the 2008 recession.
 
Yes, I’m definitely bearish on this economy.

People forget the recession that occurred during the Volcker period, when inflation was at a record high and the Fed raised inflation to the moon was the worst of all recessions. Just like Volcker was late to raise rates to fight inflation, J Powell team was also late to tame inflation, and made a huge policy error with their transitory narrative when printed Covid money triggered high inflation late 2021. They watched inflation get out of control for 6 months before taking action.

It has been barely a year since the current Fed initiated this hiking cycle, the speed and ferocity of rate hikes may not manifest in the real economy and data until mid 2023, perhaps disinflation faded or may be we need a little bit more time for the effects of policy to become clearer. I’m afraid we will know the answer to how long, not long after we know final destination for the terminal rate, the impact of a frenetic rise in rates and the desperate effort to catch up may result in a severe shock that will surprise the Fed and markets. It is human nature to overcompensate for past mistakes, at this point I’m inclined to believe that a recession outcome has not really shifted that much, it is simply a matter of a few more months before we realize the Fed already over reacted.

There is nearly 1 trillion dollars of corporate debt that will mature this year, and nearly another 1 trillion next year…. and all will have to refinance from 0% interest rate to 6-7%. Lenders are already as restrictive about lending since the 2008 recession, so imagine when rates stay high for longer, with no Fed rate cut planned this year and mostly next year. Bankruptcies will just have to increase, mortgage industry will continue to remain frozen, and with the current high debt driven consumption on credit cards, high payments on auto loans, etc. There is no plan B to rescue highly leveraged businesses and consumers who see no immediate relief to bring down their cost of living.

Finally, the equity markets today are not too far from their March 2022 highs, when interest rates were near 0 with a lot of QE. Today, the Fed are super hawkish on rate hikes and QT and will likely push the markets into a credit event. Once we get that credit event, everything waterfalls and the market will tank unlike anything we've seen since covid shutdowns or Lehman. I think all this will happen in slow motion for the most part, unlike the sudden shock of the 2008 recession.

I 100% agree with your entire commentary- but I think because the fed knows this- they are taking their time raising rates and it’s the biggest reason why the federal funds rate never was taken upwards to 6-8% from the get go.

The fed could of raised rates above inflation immediately but instead they tip toed around it and also sent out hawkish speakers to jawbone the market because they know they raising rates above inflation would break the economy.

So while I do agree with you 100%, I personally think somehow all the companies that can continue to price their products to inflation will continue to do well and the fed will ease off the gas pedal of hawkishness as the don’t want to see a severe recession and the govt/corporations can’t roll over their debt.

So while your bearish scenario is totally legit, I just think with the amount of intervention there is today in the markets- I am neutral to borderline bullish. The big issue with being to bearish- is that there’s quite a few good stocks that dropped really low in Oct/Nov- were great buying opportunists and are at ath again. So while bears wait the buy the dippers made a great buy. January was amazing.

It will be interesting to see where we are in a years time and maybe this post will def be ironic if we have another 08 crisis/00/01 bubble deflation.

But I’m fully mentally prepared to see no asset bubble correction- inflation continuing to run hot while dental practices continue to see their margins eroded as we don’t have pricing power. Of course by that time I’ll cut an hour off my workday and drop the worst insurance companies.

Remind me in a year!
 
I 100% agree with your entire commentary- but I think because the fed knows this- they are taking their time raising rates and it’s the biggest reason why the federal funds rate never was taken upwards to 6-8% from the get go.

The fed could of raised rates above inflation immediately but instead they tip toed around it and also sent out hawkish speakers to jawbone the market because they know they raising rates above inflation would break the economy.

So while I do agree with you 100%, I personally think somehow all the companies that can continue to price their products to inflation will continue to do well and the fed will ease off the gas pedal of hawkishness as the don’t want to see a severe recession and the govt/corporations can’t roll over their debt.

So while your bearish scenario is totally legit, I just think with the amount of intervention there is today in the markets- I am neutral to borderline bullish. The big issue with being to bearish- is that there’s quite a few good stocks that dropped really low in Oct/Nov- were great buying opportunists and are at ath again. So while bears wait the buy the dippers made a great buy. January was amazing.

It will be interesting to see where we are in a years time and maybe this post will def be ironic if we have another 08 crisis/00/01 bubble deflation.

But I’m fully mentally prepared to see no asset bubble correction- inflation continuing to run hot while dental practices continue to see their margins eroded as we don’t have pricing power. Of course by that time I’ll cut an hour off my workday and drop the worst insurance companies.

Remind me in a year!
I see your side of the coin too.

But for me, the economy is in a masked collapse. The evidence for a slowdown continues to mount. The Fed is doing a controlled demolition to this economy now… each rate hike is part of a slow but big domino effect.

The Fed is in “read my lips mode” right now with their monetary policy, but the markets mostly see that as a bluff. Public pension funds has been the forefront of piling into the equity markets over the last decade, and now they are walking away from all their hedges deals, specially in real estate, which is not profitable in this current economic cycle of high rates.

Meanwhile, liquidity that was quietly pumped into the economy for the last 3 years is starting to dry up. It was at $25B/month rate back in December. $19.5B last January. $14.6B last month. It will be close to 0 in 90 days. Banks are reporting declining large deposits from the massive cash in the system. This will directly effect spending. Where else is liquidity drying up? Refunds from the IRS… peak refund periods are down 10-15% from last year. A good junk of IRS refunds end up in car dealerships. But car dealerships are starting to go out of business at a fast pace now because the consumers are cash strapped this year, the highest since last recession. The used car loans now have 150% loan to value ratios, it’s not sustainable.

We’re also seeing housing market coming down because of high mortgage rates, a lot of people will see their net worth come down significantly. If the markets slide, and I think they will, that will hurt the net worth even more. J Powell is heading to the Capitol this coming week, and he will get an earful from the Senate, specially the members who see their constituents getting laid off at high numbers due to high interest rates. Because 3 in 4 of Americans live in a state where unemployment is rising now. He will argue that the unemployment rate is at 54 years low, and nearly 12M jobs are open, and more rate hikes is not only necessary, it’s an absolute goal. He will not gloss that over. Watch the stock market react with your left eye when he speaks about that. The Fed won’t give into any political game of thrones to change course.

Ok. We officially hijacked this thread. We’ll revisit this discussion next year. lol
 
I see your side of the coin too.

But for me, the economy is in a masked collapse. The evidence for a slowdown continues to mount. The Fed is doing a controlled demolition to this economy now… each rate hike is part of a slow but big domino effect.

The Fed is in “read my lips mode” right now with their monetary policy, but the markets mostly see that as a bluff. Public pension funds has been the forefront of piling into the equity markets over the last decade, and now they are walking away from all their hedges deals, specially in real estate, which is not profitable in this current economic cycle of high rates.

Meanwhile, liquidity that was quietly pumped into the economy for the last 3 years is starting to dry up. It was at $25B/month rate back in December. $19.5B last January. $14.6B last month. It will be close to 0 in 90 days. Banks are reporting declining large deposits from the massive cash in the system. This will directly effect spending. Where else is liquidity drying up? Refunds from the IRS… peak refund periods are down 10-15% from last year. A good junk of IRS refunds end up in car dealerships. But car dealerships are starting to go out of business at a fast pace now because the consumers are cash strapped this year, the highest since last recession. The used car loans now have 150% loan to value ratios, it’s not sustainable.

We’re also seeing housing market coming down because of high mortgage rates, a lot of people will see their net worth come down significantly. If the markets slide, and I think they will, that will hurt the net worth even more. J Powell is heading to the Capitol this coming week, and he will get an earful from the Senate, specially the members who see their constituents getting laid off at high numbers due to high interest rates. Because 3 in 4 of Americans live in a state where unemployment is rising now. He will argue that the unemployment rate is at 54 years low, and nearly 12M jobs are open, and more rate hikes is not only necessary, it’s an absolute goal. He will not gloss that over. Watch the stock market react with your left eye when he speaks about that. The Fed won’t give into any political game of thrones to change course.

Ok. We officially hijacked this thread. We’ll revisit this discussion next year. lol

Yes to be honest im 100% with you. But I just think there are two scenarios:

Bearish- recession- cash is king buy everything on discount and “survive the recession” to come out ahead in the next decade. The problem with buying equities here is bagholding for years to come.

Bullish- no landing, fed keeps inflation hot as they can’t raise rates and or they don’t want to force a recession- wait for cpi to come down slowly into 2024 while market recovers and grinds higher. The problem with not buying equities is that you lose to inflation and our dental practice will eat more of the costs to support a business. So hedging with equities or real estate can at least help weather the storm of inflation.

My belief is we head the rout of no landing as everything nowadays in the market is manipulated. There is no more free market in terms of stocks after 2008-9… so my money is the market in general because I think we don’t see a traditional recession like 2008 what everyone is expecting. And yes while I know cpi was driven down mainly be deflation from China- if you look now- a lot of American companies are diverting their manufacturing hubs to India Mexico etc because they know the China U.S. tension will probably worsen. So it might be some time for that deflation to show up again.

2018-19 was really the year that showed me that stocks are pretty much a nationalized interest. 18-19 they wanted to normalize interest and as soon as market dipped 20% the fed pivoted and said no more hikes and we climbed up to new ath. Why did they pivot? Trump basically said no more hikes.

The same can be said going into another election year 2024. Do the party in power want a deep recession or a new ath going into elections….

I sincerely doubt we see a change from that policy

So let’s see in a years time! Either way nice chatting- it’s nice to talk about economics with people that actually understand economics.
 
Last edited:
I am not very good at evaluating the economic trend….at predicting the future. But one thing I know for sure is if I have money in my saving and have zero debt, none of these bad things (recession, inflation, another covid-like pandemic etc) matters. Why worry about something that you can’t control? The more things (especially things that are out of your control) you know, the more stress you will suffer.

If you know the recession is coming and you don’t do anything about it, it’s not a wise thing to do. It’s like when you know a big storm is coming (from a reliable forecast source), but you refuse to evacuate and put your and your family members’ lives at risk. I treat the recessions like earthquakes, which can occur anytime without any warning. Therefore, I continue to stock up things that help me survive an earthquake so when the real one occur, I will be fine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I am not very good at evaluating the economic trend….at predicting the future. But one thing I know for sure is if I have money in my saving and have zero debt, none of these bad things (recession, inflation, another covid-like pandemic etc) matters. Why worry about something that you can’t control? The more things (especially things that are out of your control) you know, the more stress you will suffer.

If you know the recession is coming and you don’t do anything about it, it’s not a wise thing to do. It’s like when you know a big storm is coming (from a reliable forecast source), but you refuse to evacuate and put your and your family members’ lives at risk. I treat the recessions like earthquakes, which can occur anytime without any warning. Therefore, I continue to stock up things that help me survive an earthquake so when the real one occur, I will be fine.

I do agree that having zero debt helps one sleep at night. There is a few ways of looking at it:

Zero debt pay off loans etc keep it simple- retire safely.

A balanced approach of invest pay off debts. That is prob the safest approach as it allows some exposure to some decent gains.

Finally the leveraged look. Take on debt and invest.

You can pick and choose as you want, and while the zero debt index fund game does work- when you have extra capital and can invest- and potentially double your money then you can see why people look into the market, economics, and potential opportunities.

2009/2020 was a once in lifetime opportunity to rack up wealth. 2018 was a "good dip". I would argue that 22-23 could be potentially a good dip to. Facebook back to 80, Netflix to 150...and now FB up to 180, and Nflx 300+.

Everyone's economic situation is different. Luckily dental practices tend to be recession proof and allows me to invest pretty aggressively. Why? Cuz I want to retire sooner not later.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I do agree that having zero debt helps one sleep at night. There is a few ways of looking at it:

Zero debt pay off loans etc keep it simple- retire safely.

A balanced approach of invest pay off debts. That is prob the safest approach as it allows some exposure to some decent gains.

Finally the leveraged look. Take on debt and invest.

You can pick and choose as you want, and while the zero debt index fund game does work- when you have extra capital and can invest- and potentially double your money then you can see why people look into the market, economics, and potential opportunities.

2009/2020 was a once in lifetime opportunity to rack up wealth. 2018 was a "good dip". I would argue that 22-23 could be potentially a good dip to. Facebook back to 80, Netflix to 150...and now FB up to 180, and Nflx 300+.

Everyone's economic situation is different. Luckily dental practices tend to be recession proof and allows me to invest pretty aggressively. Why? Cuz I want to retire sooner not later.
My retirement will accelerate if another 2008/2009 happens.
 
Zero debt pay off loans etc keep it simple- retire safely.
That’s what Dave Ramsey has recommended: pay off all debts first then build wealth (by investing in mutual funds + 401k + other forms of savings). When you have zero debt, your greatest asset is your income (your earning ability). I am a strong believer in this. I had done the debt snowball long before I heard about Dave Ramsey. I've enjoyed life (and work) because I’ve never faced any financial difficulty since graduation. I’ve enjoyed practicing low overhead dentistry + a stable associate job on the side. I only borrowed $75k to build my first office. I purchased a 2nd practice in 2009 and paid it in full because this low tech office wasn’t too expensive to acquire.
A balanced approach of invest pay off debts. That is prob the safest approach as it allows some exposure to some decent gains.

Finally the leveraged look. Take on debt and invest.

You can pick and choose as you want, and while the zero debt index fund game does work- when you have extra capital and can invest- and potentially double your money then you can see why people look into the market, economics, and potential opportunities.
In order to invest you have to have money. You can’t invest when you have high amount of debt to pay back. For new grads that have student loan debts, working 4 days/wk will not give them any extra income to invest. Banks won’t loan the money to a broke person. You have to work hard to earn good income so you can prove to the banks that you can pay back the debts. To me, investing in a dental practice is a lot more profitable than any other forms of investments.
2009/2020 was a once in lifetime opportunity to rack up wealth. 2018 was a "good dip". I would argue that 22-23 could be potentially a good dip to. Facebook back to 80, Netflix to 150...and now FB up to 180, and Nflx 300+.
The problem for me was I didn’t know what stocks to buy…..I was (still am) clueless….to me, they are like gambling. I invested in rental properties instead. I took advantage of the low home prices during the 2008 recession. Thanks to the good stable dental income, I didn’t have any problem getting the banks to approve the loans. When I invested in these properties, I didn’t think the home prices would go up the way they have gone up in the last couple of years. I didn’t think these were good investments. My thinking was very simple….I put down 20% for each property, the tenants pay the mortgages and 30 years later, I’ll have 100% of the ownership. I couldn’t wait for 30 years so I paid all of them off early.
Luckily dental practices tend to be recession proof and allows me to invest pretty aggressively. Why? Cuz I want to retire sooner not later.
You finally said something nice about dentistry.👍
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
That’s what Dave Ramsey has recommended: pay off all debts first then build wealth (by investing in mutual funds + 401k + other forms of savings). When you have zero debt, your greatest asset is your income (your earning ability). I am a strong believer in this. I had done the debt snowball long before I heard about Dave Ramsey. I've enjoyed life (and work) because I’ve never faced any financial difficulty since graduation. I’ve enjoyed practicing low overhead dentistry + a stable associate job on the side. I only borrowed $75k to build my first office. I purchased a 2nd practice in 2009 and paid it in full because this low tech office wasn’t too expensive to acquire.

In order to invest you have to have money. You can’t invest when you have high amount of debt to pay back. For new grads that have student loan debts, working 4 days/wk will not give them any extra income to invest. Banks won’t loan the money to a broke person. You have to work hard to earn good income so you can prove to the banks that you can pay back the debts. To me, investing in a dental practice is a lot more profitable than any other forms of investments.

The problem for me was I didn’t know what stocks to buy…..I was (still am) clueless….to me, they are like gambling. I invested in rental properties instead. I took advantage of the low home prices during the 2008 recession. Thanks to the good stable dental income, I didn’t have any problem getting the banks to approve the loans. When I invested in these properties, I didn’t think the home prices would go up the way they have gone up in the last couple of years. I didn’t think these were good investments. My thinking was very simple….I put down 20% for each property, the tenants pay the mortgages and 30 years later, I’ll have 100% of the ownership. I couldn’t wait for 30 years so I paid all of them off early.

You finally said something nice about dentistry.👍

Like I said I think I have a great gig in general. No complaints here for my life. I think overall the field is def trending down and I wouldn’t have my kids follow in my footsteps that’s all. But for my current situation- it’s pretty nice.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Like I said I think I have a great gig in general. No complaints here for my life. I think overall the field is def trending down and I wouldn’t have my kids follow in my footsteps that’s all. But for my current situation- it’s pretty nice.
Everything is trending down. A college degree is no longer guarantee of a good life. It's not easy to make money nowadays. At least your kids won't be in debt like you if they choose to follow your footstep. You can provide for your kids more than what your parents had done for you.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Top