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Z-Qualizer said:
Boy is this thread popular today!!

Meanwhile, I bought the dip at 69k and we’re already back up to 72k 😎
Click to expand...

Man everytime you get excited about a price spike, it dips 😅
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sevo00 said:
The only thing that goes up 15,000% in a few years are the meme coins which I admit have no use case. But to say block chain technology has no use case is a reach
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Wait. Which coin has a patent on blockchain technology again?
 
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txhorn said:
BOME is insane. Memecoin created by a meme artist. Def see this one getting listed on binance/coinbase
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BOME’s playbook is similar to OMNI which was launched with great hype and then went down as fast as it went up. Rotators looking to make a quick buck will get rekt.
 
triggermaster said:
Wait. Which coin has a patent on blockchain technology again?
Click to expand...

Are you saying that anyone can just create a second BTC and make the original worthless? It's been 14 years and the OG is still king.
 
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mentos said:
Are you saying that anyone can just create a second BTC and make the original worthless? It's been 14 years and the OG is still king.
Click to expand...
Yup, naysayers have been recycling the same stale, refuted arguments since 2010.
 
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mentos said:
Are you saying that anyone can just create a second BTC and make the original worthless? It's been 14 years and the OG is still king.
Click to expand...
The fact that you can’t displace bitcoin by creating a better crypto is proof that its value has nothing to do with utility. That’s not really an argument in its favor.
 
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triggermaster said:
The fact that you can’t displace bitcoin by creating a better crypto is proof that its value has nothing to do with utility. That’s not really an argument in its favor.
Click to expand...
Oh that’s “proof” huh? That’s a very interesting conclusion to reach 🤔
 
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triggermaster said:
B

The fact that you can’t displace bitcoin by creating a better crypto is proof that its value has nothing to do with utility. That’s not really an argument in its favor.
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btc has gone down just like you said it would. I think I am done and going back to index funds. I really thought it would get to 100k like everyone on this board said it would but literally it just fell short :cryi:

Dunk Fail GIF
 
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finalpsychyear said:
btc has gone down just like you said it would. I think I am done and going back to index funds. I really thought it would get to 100k like everyone on this board said it would but literally it just fell apart :cryi:

Dunk Fail GIF
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I never said it was going down. I mean people buy alkaline water, so there’s a strong market for useless products if the salesmanship is enough to fool them.
 
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In a sense, Bitcoin isn't any more "useful" than gold.

Enormous resources have been expended "mining" Bitcoin. Which is objectively not useful as a medium of exchange. It gets stored in virtual wallets where it doesn't pay dividends, doesn't do work, doesn't grow. But a lot of people have faith that they will be able to trade it for fiat currencies in the future, and then trade those for useful goods and services.

Similarly, enormous resources have bee expended mining gold. Which is objectively not useful as a medium of exchange. It gets dug out of the ground and then put in new holes in the ground (vaults) where it doesn't pay dividends, doesn't do work, doesn't grow. But a lot of people have faith that they will be able to trade it for fiat currencies in the future, and then trade those for useful goods and services.

Is there really any difference? The value of both are rooted in the fact that there's an approximately finite quantity in existence, and their holders' faith.

One difference is that gold has thousands of years of history behind it but Bitcoin doesn't. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't.

I don't believe Bitcoin will ever be useful for the things its cheerleaders say it will. We already have far more convenient and useful digital currency (credit and debit cards). I'm sure people will be trading Bitcoin highs and lows for a long time to come. But I'm agnostic on where the top or bottom will be.


I am amused by the constant discussion of "cycles" and patterns, and ****coins that everybody acknowledges are coins of ****. I'm somewhat mystified by their reluctance to admit that ALL OF IT is a zero sum game, and that any growth or profit anyone makes is funded by someone else's loss.

I'm happy to see that people I know and like on SDN are having some success extracting wealth from another cycle of dumb/late money. But I'm perplexed by their need for validation or public acknowledgment that their vision is correct (it may be), or the repeated insistence that doubters are going to be left behind (they won't). It and the vaguely derogatory namecalling ("midcurves") strikes me as oddly insecure.

The desperation to be seen as some kind of visionary is bizarre.


We're 48 pages into this thread. I'm not sure how many pages back I'd have to go to find the people who swore NFTs were going up and up, that their applications were going to change the world. Everything from video games to real estate contracts. It was obviously absurd idea. But somewhere mid-thread I couldn't tell the difference between the coin evangelists and the NFT evangelists. I suppose somewhere out there is a holder of a cartoon monkey NFT who's gonna hodl until it makes him rich.

I still read the thread and occasionally post in it because the whole thing is fascinating to me. The constant insistence that I need Bitcoin or will somehow be left behind if I don't invest in it now is ... ridiculous. For every winner there'll be a loser. I don't need to be either.
 
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pgg said:
In a sense, Bitcoin isn't any more "useful" than gold.

Enormous resources have been expended "mining" Bitcoin. Which is objectively not useful as a medium of exchange. It gets stored in virtual wallets where it doesn't pay dividends, doesn't do work, doesn't grow. But a lot of people have faith that they will be able to trade it for fiat currencies in the future, and then trade those for useful goods and services.

Similarly, enormous resources have bee expended mining gold. Which is objectively not useful as a medium of exchange. It gets dug out of the ground and then put in new holes in the ground (vaults) where it doesn't pay dividends, doesn't do work, doesn't grow. But a lot of people have faith that they will be able to trade it for fiat currencies in the future, and then trade those for useful goods and services.

Is there really any difference? The value of both are rooted in the fact that there's an approximately finite quantity in existence, and their holders' faith.

One difference is that gold has thousands of years of history behind it but Bitcoin doesn't. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't.

I don't believe Bitcoin will ever be useful for the things its cheerleaders say it will. We already have far more convenient and useful digital currency (credit and debit cards). I'm sure people will be trading Bitcoin highs and lows for a long time to come. But I'm agnostic on where the top or bottom will be.


I am amused by the constant discussion of "cycles" and patterns, and ****coins that everybody acknowledges are coins of ****. I'm somewhat mystified by their reluctance to admit that ALL OF IT is a zero sum game, and that any growth or profit anyone makes is funded by someone else's loss.

I'm happy to see that people I know and like on SDN are having some success extracting wealth from another cycle of dumb/late money. But I'm perplexed by their need for validation or public acknowledgment that their vision is correct (it may be), or the repeated insistence that doubters are going to be left behind (they won't). It and the vaguely derogatory namecalling ("midcurves") strikes me as oddly insecure.

The desperation to be seen as some kind of visionary is bizarre.


We're 48 pages into this thread. I'm not sure how many pages back I'd have to go to find the people who swore NFTs were going up and up, that their applications were going to change the world. Everything from video games to real estate contracts. It was obviously absurd idea. But somewhere mid-thread I couldn't tell the difference between the coin evangelists and the NFT evangelists. I suppose somewhere out there is a holder of a cartoon monkey NFT who's gonna hodl until it makes him rich.

I still read the thread and occasionally post in it because the whole thing is fascinating to me. The constant insistence that I need Bitcoin or will somehow be left behind if I don't invest in it now is ... ridiculous. For every winner there'll be a loser. I don't need to be either.
Click to expand...

Same with diamonds. They have no use case but they are expensive. Synthetic diamonds are better, but people still pay more for natural ones.

Stock options are also a zero sum game. For every 10x winner, there are several losers. People win at the expense of others. People are okay with this, but not crypto for some reason.
 
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pgg said:
In a sense, Bitcoin isn't any more "useful" than gold.

Enormous resources have been expended "mining" Bitcoin. Which is objectively not useful as a medium of exchange. It gets stored in virtual wallets where it doesn't pay dividends, doesn't do work, doesn't grow. But a lot of people have faith that they will be able to trade it for fiat currencies in the future, and then trade those for useful goods and services.

Similarly, enormous resources have bee expended mining gold. Which is objectively not useful as a medium of exchange. It gets dug out of the ground and then put in new holes in the ground (vaults) where it doesn't pay dividends, doesn't do work, doesn't grow. But a lot of people have faith that they will be able to trade it for fiat currencies in the future, and then trade those for useful goods and services.

Is there really any difference? The value of both are rooted in the fact that there's an approximately finite quantity in existence, and their holders' faith.

One difference is that gold has thousands of years of history behind it but Bitcoin doesn't. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't.

I don't believe Bitcoin will ever be useful for the things its cheerleaders say it will. We already have far more convenient and useful digital currency (credit and debit cards). I'm sure people will be trading Bitcoin highs and lows for a long time to come. But I'm agnostic on where the top or bottom will be.


I am amused by the constant discussion of "cycles" and patterns, and ****coins that everybody acknowledges are coins of ****. I'm somewhat mystified by their reluctance to admit that ALL OF IT is a zero sum game, and that any growth or profit anyone makes is funded by someone else's loss.

I'm happy to see that people I know and like on SDN are having some success extracting wealth from another cycle of dumb/late money. But I'm perplexed by their need for validation or public acknowledgment that their vision is correct (it may be), or the repeated insistence that doubters are going to be left behind (they won't). It and the vaguely derogatory namecalling ("midcurves") strikes me as oddly insecure.

The desperation to be seen as some kind of visionary is bizarre.


We're 48 pages into this thread. I'm not sure how many pages back I'd have to go to find the people who swore NFTs were going up and up, that their applications were going to change the world. Everything from video games to real estate contracts. It was obviously absurd idea. But somewhere mid-thread I couldn't tell the difference between the coin evangelists and the NFT evangelists. I suppose somewhere out there is a holder of a cartoon monkey NFT who's gonna hodl until it makes him rich.

I still read the thread and occasionally post in it because the whole thing is fascinating to me. The constant insistence that I need Bitcoin or will somehow be left behind if I don't invest in it now is ... ridiculous. For every winner there'll be a loser. I don't need to be either.
Click to expand...

The difference is you can’t make more gold, but there’s no limit to creating crypto out of thin air.
I really don’t know why people haven’t just started new blockchains and called them Bitcoin and sold them to suckers. It’s not like there would be any difference between ‘real’ and counterfeit Bitcoin.
 
triggermaster said:
The difference is you can’t make more gold, but there’s no limit to creating crypto out of thin air.
I really don’t know why people haven’t just started new blockchains and called them Bitcoin and sold them to suckers. It’s not like there would be any difference between ‘real’ and counterfeit Bitcoin.
Click to expand...

Uh, no. BTC is finite just like gold, diamonds and oil. Only 21 million BTC will exist after they're all mined. This is common knowledge.

There are tens of of thousands of BTC copycats.
 
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The more i think about the money flow coming into the space the more hesitant i am starting to get about selling anything this cycle.

Lets say we get to 140-150 this cycle and 220s the following cycle due to dimishing returns.

Just holding even if u just bought at ath means in 5 years u have a 3x return. Sure u could sell in 140s pay taxes and slowly dca but what if the draw down is less due to the etfs.

Do others feel similarly?
 
finalpsychyear said:
The more i think about the money flow coming into the space the more hesitant i am starting to get about selling anything this cycle.

Lets say we get to 140-150 this cycle and 220s the following cycle due to dimishing returns.

Just holding even if u just bought at ath means in 5 years u have a 3x return. Sure u could sell in 140s pay taxes and slowly dca but what if the draw down is less due to the etfs.

Do others feel similarly?
Click to expand...

I didn't sell when I was up last cycle, then I saw my portfolio drop by 70%. I'm not doing that again, I'm selling all this time.
 
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mentos said:
Uh, no. BTC is finite just like gold, diamonds and oil. Only 21 million BTC will exist after they're all mined. This is common knowledge.

There are tens of of thousands of BTC copycats.
Click to expand...
Except BTC is just made up with planned scarcity. You have to realize it offers nothing over a newer better crypto other than hype? And the newer coin offers nothing over another coin. It’s only valuable because you are all pretending it’s valuable.
 
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triggermaster said:
Except BTC is just made up with planned scarcity. You have to realize it offers nothing over a newer better crypto other than hype? And the newer coin offers nothing over another coin. It’s only valuable because you are all pretending it’s valuable.
Click to expand...

Guess Black Rock, Fidelity, MSTR, TSLA, COIN etc are all pretending too.
 
mentos said:
Guess Black Rock, Fidelity, MSTR, TSLA, COIN etc are all pretending too.
Click to expand...
It’s all about money. Black Rock and Fidelity see that people are willing to pay for for access to an asset and offer it to their clients… I don’t think they are true believers.

COIN, MSTR and TSLA may legitimately be believers.

Venezuela… that country is fully committed!
 
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itt: people believing their 25 appl shares have any use case. It’s all zero sum and all mental gymnastics around financial asset classes. I have close friends who are analysts at Gs and even they don’t pretend that company valuation underpins stock price action as much as social sentiment. Crypto is no different and everyone wants a piece of the money pie.


Arguing about crypto use cases in 2024 is meme worthy because if you don’t get it by now you probably never will. “Btc is just made up”. Lmao. Everything is made up that’s how perceived value works. Did we skip econ in high school? The whole mechanism of distributed consensus underpins crypto value and it’s very obvious that there is enough critical support of perceived value of the original and most well known blockchain that at the very least even the biggest naysayers have to accept that btc is a digital commodity. This doesn’t get into the other use/value propositions other chains offer whatsoever.

But yes feel free to embody man yelling at people hoarding lemons while the largest financial institutions in the world try to build out their lemonade stands
 
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mentos said:
Same with diamonds. They have no use case but they are expensive. Synthetic diamonds are better, but people still pay more for natural ones.

Stock options are also a zero sum game. For every 10x winner, there are several losers. People win at the expense of others. People are okay with this, but not crypto for some reason.
Click to expand...
To be clear, I'm totally OK with it and I hope all of you make a killing.

My criticism of crypto is the oft-asserted ideas that it'll become the currency of the future, that it'll be essential to commerce, that anyone who doesn't embrace it will be left behind and poor while holding the bag with their worthless fiat dollars. Crypto's main impact on society so far has been unequivocally damaging. Maybe that will change.

If you acknowledge that its only use at this time is speculation and wealth extraction from a zero sum trading game, we're on the same page. Others have a different sort of ... faith.
 
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mentos said:
Guess Black Rock, Fidelity, MSTR, TSLA, COIN etc are all pretending too.
Click to expand...
Fidelity isn't investing in Bitcoin. They have seized the opportunity to extract wealth from speculators partly via transaction fees, but mostly via other services/upsells.

And again, I find it interesting that the true believers who have long cited Bitcoin's decentralized nature, its democratic/libertarian qualities, and its non-dependence upon traditional finance systems, are so giddy about brokerage firms getting involved. What happened to the dream of having a digital wallet and typing in a passcode at 7-11 to anonymously buy a quart of milk, or making a real estate transaction at 3 AM on a Sunday when those silly obsolete banks are closed?

I wouldn't want to inflict a re-read of this whole thread on anyone, but I'll just point out that years ago this thread was all talk about a future in which Bitcoin was a revolutionary and essential piece of modern society, destined to be adopted as the currency of the future. With the notable exception of the OP, that vision has completely morphed into discussion about cycles and signals, when the chart goes up and when it goes down, and when to buy dips and how long to hold before the bottom drops out again.

It's a speculative asset. I have no idea what $ value it'll trade for tomorrow or next year or in 2035. But we sure as hell won't see it fulfill the original libertarian dream of decentralized anonymous usable currency.

Which is sort of sad, because that would be cool.
 
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Fidelity currently owns 132,374 BTC in their spot ETF. You don't consider that investing in BTC?

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)

Learn about the company Fidelity FBTC ETF and how much bitcoins the fund owns.
bitcointreasuries.com bitcointreasuries.com
 
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Supposedly, crypto will be the financial arm of the internet. The ecosystem/ infrastructure is just getting started. Is that believable?
 
LivetoTell said:
Supposedly, crypto will be the financial arm of the internet. The ecosystem/ infrastructure is just getting started. Is that believable?
Click to expand...

That is my thesis and has been way before this thread started. Along with Bitcoin being a money printing detector. Things are so much clearer after that. The digital revolution will happen faster than most can appreciate.
 
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Fidelity has been mining bitcoin for almost 10 years. The understand the technology better than those sitting on the sidelines. Fidelity’s job is to make money through fees. So they extract wealth by selling any product stock, bonds, currency or commodity. These institutions are accumulating BTC for their wealthy clients, before they’ll give the green light to us plebs. Wait till later this year. Since I manage a SEP-IRA myself, I have exposure to the ETFs and I aped in and I’m 45% on that allocation .

Later this year, RIAs will be recommending I think 1-5% your portfolio in to this emerging asset called Bitcoin. And once Microstrategy enters the S&P 500, everyone with a portfolio will be rooting for number go up like you do for APPL, GOOG, TSLA NVDA and your favorite stock. Keep denying the inevitable. History will not be kind to you.
 
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LivetoTell said:
Supposedly, crypto will be the financial arm of the internet. The ecosystem/ infrastructure is just getting started. Is that believable?
Click to expand...
It’s never going to happen.
People buy bitcoin because they expect to sell it for more money, not because they want to use it as a ‘currency’. It’s insanely volatile. When it’s going up no one will spend it because they think they’ll be losing money. When it’s going down no one will accept it because they’ll be losing money. If it ever gets price stability then it would be pointless to own and will underperform the market.

I’m not saying you won’t make money. I’m not saying you won’t lose money. I’m just saying it will never be the currency that it was suggested to be.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
That is my thesis and has been way before this thread started. Along with Bitcoin being a money printing detector. Things are so much clearer after that. The digital revolution will happen faster than most can appreciate.
Click to expand...
The fundamental problem with this idea is that Bitcoin or crypto in general doesn't do anything better than any fiat currency, and it does most things worse. There hasn't been and won't be any advantage to conducting a transaction in Bitcoins vs dollars or Euros or pesos or any other currency. They're ALL just 1s and 0s on an electronic ledger. Anyone, anywhere can already buy anything[1] with a credit or debit card and an instantaneous electronic transaction. Really large transactions might need an escrow service, but so what?

You think crypto and smart contracts to facilitate a home purchase without a middleman is really the killer app that justifies crypto? A 2 or 3 or 4 times in a lifetime event for most humans? The existing banking system works fine.

Inflation or devaluation can (will) alter the number of units of those currencies needed to conduct a transaction, but so what?

Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Keep denying the inevitable. History will not be kind to you.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: My god you're a drama queen.

Even if you were actually 100% right, do you actually think people who don't invest in Bitcoin now will wear a scarlet B on their chests and be barred from trading their wages or assets for Bitcoins in the future?

If in the year 2045 all wages and payments are conducted in Bitcoin, only the early adopters will be allowed to work and buy? You think the physicians on this forum, of all people, earning and aggressively saving/investing their $500K+ salaries, are going to be begging for coins from people like you?

You're insufferable.

What you really mean to say is that you think we're missing out on a chance to double or triple our money by buying crypto today. Speculation FOMO is your only actual argument that might contain a shred of truth.

At least the other crypto buyers in this thread admit it's just a speculative play to extract money from others.
 
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triggermaster said:
It’s never going to happen.
People buy bitcoin because they expect to sell it for more money, not because they want to use it as a ‘currency’. It’s insanely volatile. When it’s going up no one will spend it because they think they’ll be losing money. When it’s going down no one will accept it because they’ll be losing money. If it ever gets price stability then it would be pointless to own and will underperform the market.

I’m not saying you won’t make money. I’m not saying you won’t lose money. I’m just saying it will never be the currency that it was suggested to be.
Click to expand...

1st halving November 28, 2012 = $13
2nd halving July 16, 2016 2016 = $664
3rd halving May 11, 2020 = $9734
4th halving sometime in April 2024 = $60-70k

5th halving sometime in 2028 = no one knows but could argue its 0.5-1x of the current value being conservative.

adjusting for CAGR at 0.5x return in 4 years you basically get the historical avg return of the s and p 500 and then double that if we get 1x.

Your probably close to 20 years into your lucrative specialty and have had an amazing bull run since 2009 so i understand whatever you have done is obviously working and this newer thing which doesn't make a lot of sense would have a very high risk and low reward for someone in your position. The rest of us aren't that lucky.
 
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pgg said:
The fundamental problem with this idea is that Bitcoin or crypto in general doesn't do anything better than any fiat currency, and it does most things worse. There hasn't been and won't be any advantage to conducting a transaction in Bitcoins vs dollars or Euros or pesos or any other currency. They're ALL just 1s and 0s on an electronic ledger. Anyone, anywhere can already buy anything[1] with a credit or debit card and an instantaneous electronic transaction. Really large transactions might need an escrow service, but so what?

You think crypto and smart contracts to facilitate a home purchase without a middleman is really the killer app that justifies crypto? A 2 or 3 or 4 times in a lifetime event for most humans? The existing banking system works fine.

Inflation or devaluation can (will) alter the number of units of those currencies needed to conduct a transaction, but so what?


:rolleyes: My god you're a drama queen.

Even if you were actually 100% right, do you actually think people who don't invest in Bitcoin now will wear a scarlet B on their chests and be barred from trading their wages or assets for Bitcoins in the future?

If in the year 2045 all wages and payments are conducted in Bitcoin, only the early adopters will be allowed to work and buy? You think the physicians on this forum, of all people, earning and aggressively saving/investing their $500K+ salaries, are going to be begging for coins from people like you?

You're insufferable.

What you really mean to say is that you think we're missing out on a chance to double or triple our money by buying crypto today. Speculation FOMO is your only actual argument that might contain a shred of truth.

At least the other crypto buyers in this thread admit it's just a speculative play to extract money from others.
Click to expand...

Your probably again very well off with no plans to stop work in the near future. A lot of what you say makes sense. I don't know much but I think in 4 years this stuff will appreciate more than other investment vehicles on average. No one should be overexposed but 1-5% is ok even if things don't go as planned. However, with the big players in the game they have more motive to keep this going up for the next several years because they will make more $ then if they shorted the hell out of it now and come out and say hey sorry we were wrong its a big scam and go back to index funds again... how would the public trust them the same way again. This point in time is less risky than any other based solely on that.

All i'll say about that direct guy is he has been right about most things and i think he'll be right on the price action going up and I give him props for seeing this as the OP of this thread.
 
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finalpsychyear said:
Your probably again very well off with no plans to stop work in the near future. A lot of what you say makes sense. I don't know much but I think in 4 years this stuff will appreciate more than other investment vehicles on average. No one should be overexposed but 1-5% is ok even if things don't go as planned. However, with the big players in the game they have more motive to keep this going up for the next several years because they will make more $ then if they shorted the hell out of it now and come out and say hey sorry we were wrong its a big scam and go back to index funds again... how would the public trust them the same way again. This point in time is less risky than any other based solely on that.

All i'll say about that direct guy is he has been right about most things and i think he'll be right on the price action going up and I give him props for seeing this as the OP of this thread.
Click to expand...

OP made this thread in 8/2020.
BTC was under $12k, currently $67.4k
MSTR was $145, currently $1,782

Incredible.
 
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mentos said:
OP made this thread in 8/2020.
BTC was under $12k, currently $67.4k
MSTR was $145, currently $1,782

Incredible.
Click to expand...

yeah there's a chance those prices could double sometime in 2025...crazy. from 12k to 120k lol
 
mentos said:
Fidelity currently owns 132,374 BTC in their spot ETF. You don't consider that investing in BTC?

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)

Learn about the company Fidelity FBTC ETF and how much bitcoins the fund owns.
bitcointreasuries.com bitcointreasuries.com
Click to expand...
Those coins are owned by the investors who own shares of the ETF. Fidelity has custody of them (which itself is a weird perversion of the cryptocurrency ideal) but they belong to their customers.

The majority of whom are paying Fidelity for other services.

Seems a stretch to say that Fidelity itself owns 132K Bitcoins. Maybe that's the literal truth and all the customers own is a promise. Kind of like gold ETFs vs owning physical gold.



Out of curiosity, does Fidelity loan its customers' shares of the Bitcoin ETF the way brokerages loan the other securities its customers own to third parties?

I don't have a account with Fidelity so I don't know what their usual lending practice is.
 
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I bought SOL for $200 in 2021. I'm finally green!
 
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