Be ahead of the curve

[mentos]

The stock market is halted premarket, but crypto is still trading.

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[Direct Laryngoscopy]

Crypto markets are the true free markets. Open 24/7, with global supply/demand dynamics. Plus on chain analysis gives the flows and movement of coins. That’s probably why BTC price is a precursor to the traditional markets that are closed nights/weekend/holidays.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Crypto markets are the true free markets. Open 24/7, with global supply/demand dynamics. Plus on chain analysis gives the flows and movement of coins. That’s probably why BTC price is a precursor to the traditional markets that are closed nights/weekend/holidays.

So at the halving the price of btc doubles within 6 mo or is the fair value that doubles within 6 mo ?

Seems insane that if we are at 70k at this halving next month. we would be at 140k by eoy which sounds insane but maybe i am not understanding it correctly?

 

[sevo00]

So at the halving the price of btc doubles within 6 mo or is the fair value that doubles within 6 mo ?

Seems insane that if we are at 70k at this halving next month. we would be at 140k by eoy which sounds insane but maybe i am not understanding it correctly?

Bitcoin supply is not being halved. Its the mining reward that is being halved

 

[finalpsychyear]

Bitcoin supply is not being halved. Its the mining reward that is being halved

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/18/standard-chartered-raises-year-end-btc-forecast-to-150k-sees-2025-high-of-250k/

not sure what to make of this standard chartered news. are they legit? they went from 100 to 150 very quickly.

 

[Direct Laryngoscopy]

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/18/standard-chartered-raises-year-end-btc-forecast-to-150k-sees-2025-high-of-250k/

not sure what to make of this standard chartered news. are they legit? they went from 100 to 150 very quickly.

You should study Market Psychology so you’re aware of it

 

[mentos]

How low will this dip go 🤔

 

[triggermaster]

How low will this dip go 🤔

Here’s the actual use of Bitcoin:

“UnitedHealthcare didn’t answer questions about whether it paid a ransom. But experts at the cybersecurity companies Recorded Future and Tenable pointed to a bitcoin wallet that received a payment of more than $22 million Friday. The companies say the wallet, which was viewed by NBC News, belonged to Alphv. Wired first reported the news.”

Patients struggle to get lifesaving medication after cyberattack on a major health care company

The attack on Change Healthcare has upended the lives and work of patients, doctors and pharmacists because of outages in systems used for medical billing and insurance claims.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[sevo00]

Here’s the actual use of Bitcoin:

“UnitedHealthcare didn’t answer questions about whether it paid a ransom. But experts at the cybersecurity companies Recorded Future and Tenable pointed to a bitcoin wallet that received a payment of more than $22 million Friday. The companies say the wallet, which was viewed by NBC News, belonged to Alphv. Wired first reported the news.”

Patients struggle to get lifesaving medication after cyberattack on a major health care company

The attack on Change Healthcare has upended the lives and work of patients, doctors and pharmacists because of outages in systems used for medical billing and insurance claims.

www.nbcnews.com

senator warren is this you?

 

[triggermaster]

senator warren is this you?

Nope, just trying to buy my kid’s medicine but the system is down because bitcoin-facilitated Russian ransomware hackers made them shut down the network.

No one can name a use for Bitcoin, but there is one, crime.

 

[kb1900]

Nope, just trying to buy my kid’s medicine but the system is down because bitcoin-facilitated Russian ransomware hackers made them shut down the network.

No one can name a use for Bitcoin, but there is one, crime.

Mate the alternative would be that the ransom would be paid with laundered cash or a different crypto. You really believe that there would be no black hatters attacking healthcare systems with 0 netsec if btc didn’t exist?

It’s far more likely that this wallet will be blacklisted by most exchanges and used for identification/tracking. But in this case in the public eye on chain rather than privately. Unlike most big money movement that can’t be tracked at all by the public and is just subject to good ol’ public reporting

 

[mentos]

Nope, just trying to buy my kid’s medicine but the system is down because bitcoin-facilitated Russian ransomware hackers made them shut down the network.

No one can name a use for Bitcoin, but there is one, crime.

Crime happens with fiat too.

 

[Direct Laryngoscopy]

I wish someone will give the date that Bitcoin is going to 0. This thread is going on it’s 4th year and no one has as yet. We’re still talking about Russian hackers, used for only crime and government bans. Y’all are funny. lol

 

[triggermaster]

Crime happens with fiat too.

True, but real currency has non-crime functions.

 

[mentos]

Why does the SEC oppose ETH ETFs if there's already BTC ETFs?

 

[chessknt]

Mate the alternative would be that the ransom would be paid with laundered cash or a different crypto. You really believe that there would be no black hatters attacking healthcare systems with 0 netsec if btc didn’t exist?

It’s far more likely that this wallet will be blacklisted by most exchanges and used for identification/tracking. But in this case in the public eye on chain rather than privately. Unlike most big money movement that can’t be tracked at all by the public and is just subject to good ol’ public reporting

Was it though? Was this happening in 2012-2016 with regularity like it does now? They would just pull 20 million in cash and just drop it off somewhere? Or 'launder' it and transmit it via a wire using the existing banking system?

 

[mentos]

True, but real currency has non-crime functions.

What functions do gold and diamonds have?

 

[mentos]

Dip over.

 

[triggermaster]

What functions do gold and diamonds have?

You know what functions they have. Also, diamonds are closer to crypto since they have perceived value mostly due to artificial scarcity, but at least diamonds are pretty.

Love for crypto probably overlaps with belief in conspiracy theories. You want to feel like you have special knowledge other people don’t have. Being in a conspiracy group or crypto makes you feel special. I get it.

 

[kb1900]

Was it though? Was this happening in 2012-2016 with regularity like it does now? They would just pull 20 million in cash and just drop it off somewhere? Or 'launder' it and transmit it via a wire using the existing banking system?

Were ransomware attacks happening in 2012-2016? Yes in fact that’s when they were fairly commonly covered in the media. It was 2016 or 17 that wannacry hit the NHS I believe.

I’m not sure how anyone could comment on regularity given most of these attacks and ransoms are aggressively swept under the rug

 

[pgg]

I wish someone will give the date that Bitcoin is going to 0. This thread is going on it’s 4th year and no one has as yet. We’re still talking about Russian hackers, used for only crime and government bans. Y’all are funny. lol

I don't think anybody is actually saying it'll go to zero. That would surprise me.

I just think it'll never be used for what you think it will be used for, in a world-changing, commerce-essential, fiat-replacing manner.

Not to mention your nonsense about people who don't speculate in crypto being left behind or "judged harshly by history" ...

I'm glad you're making money, I guess. I just don't need or want crypto. I'm doing fine without it.

And I'd like to be wrong - the notion of anonymous, secure, state-independent currency that I can use anywhere at any time is appealing. But that's not what we've got with crypto and it's not where crypto is going.

At the moment it's a tool for wealth extraction from FOMOs and it is objectively worse than dollars or Euros for any task requiring money. Thus far, crypto has been a net negative and harm to the world.

But you do you. Keep propping up those midcurve strawmen or whatever else it is that fuels your smug.

 

[jjm285]

Were ransomware attacks happening in 2012-2016? Yes in fact that’s when they were fairly commonly covered in the media. It was 2016 or 17 that wannacry hit the NHS I believe.

I’m not sure how anyone could comment on regularity given most of these attacks and ransoms are aggressively swept under the rug

Didn’t they demand payment in Bitcoin?

 

[Direct Laryngoscopy]

The names I’ve been called is absolutely hilarious lol. I say look at price and adoption. Now uncle Larry and BlackRock is filing for an ETH ETF (with staking). Doubt it stops after that.

Be ahead of the curve or wave or tsunami of global adoption.

 

[mentos]

You know what functions they have. Also, diamonds are closer to crypto since they have perceived value mostly due to artificial scarcity, but at least diamonds are pretty.

Love for crypto probably overlaps with belief in conspiracy theories. You want to feel like you have special knowledge other people don’t have. Being in a conspiracy group or crypto makes you feel special. I get it.

Nah, I don't have any special knowledge. I know I'm an idiot. But I'm pretty sure BTC isn't going anywhere, it'll keep going up long term.

 

[sevo00]

Thank you papa Powell

 

[nimbus]

Thank you papa Powell

Because it is a risk asset, bitcoin behaves like all other risk assets (like AI and other growth stocks). Cheap money or the promise of cheap money means the value goes up.

 

[GassYous]

Rates didn't move though?

 

[nimbus]

Rates didn't move though?

But signaled 3 cuts this year.

 

[mentos]

Rates didn't move though?

It's good they didn't go up.

 

[kb1900]

Nah, I don't have any special knowledge. I know I'm an idiot. But I'm pretty sure BTC isn't going anywhere, it'll keep going up long term.

Exactly what a conspiracy theorist would say /s

 

[sevo00]

Because it is a risk asset, bitcoin behaves like all other risk assets (like AI and other growth stocks). Cheap money or the promise of cheap money means the value goes up.

Yes number going up is indeed the best tech

 

[sevo00]

Rates didn't move though?

they said will cut rates later this year

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Just saw on Reddit… apparently 5 BILLION in shorts was liquidated today 😁

 

[mentos]

Just saw on Reddit… apparently 5 BILLION in shorts was liquidated today 😁

BTC went from 73k to 61k and they didn't close out? Were they expecting it to go to zero?

This article says 151 million. That's a lot different than 5 billion.

Bitcoin Rallies Post-Fed Rate Announcement, Shorts Worth $151.69M Liquidated – Market Updates Bitcoin News

The valuation of bitcoin (BTC) tapped the $68,000 mark merely 17 hours following its dip to $60,760 per unit.

news.bitcoin.com

 

[Z-Qualizer]

BTC went from 73k to 61k and they didn't close out? Were they expecting it to go to zero?

This article says 151 million. That's a lot different than 5 billion.

Bitcoin Rallies Post-Fed Rate Announcement, Shorts Worth $151.69M Liquidated – Market Updates Bitcoin News

The valuation of bitcoin (BTC) tapped the $68,000 mark merely 17 hours following its dip to $60,760 per unit.

news.bitcoin.com

Guess not? But we’re talking about people who willingly chose to short the greatest performing asset in human history, so…

 

[mentos]

Bullish

https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/03/22/el-salvador-doubles-down-on-bitcoin/

 

[finalpsychyear]

Guess not? But we’re talking about people who willingly chose to short the greatest performing asset in human history, so…

1.How do you balance between potentially selling this bull run if we see price action 150-200k vs the mere fact that is happening as proof we are only going higher from there to say 300-400k range in 2028-2030? Maybe sell just enough so you have your cost basis back and let the rest ride?

2. Direct has always been ahead of the times and he's already not selling anything major until the 2028-2030 cycle so that has given me pause in this process.

3. I feel more and more convinced that in 10 years we will be in the 500k+ range.

 

[sevo00]

1.How do you balance between potentially selling this bull run if we see price action 150-200k vs the mere fact that is happening as proof we are only going higher from there to say 300-400k range in 2028-2030? Maybe sell just enough so you have your cost basis back and let the rest ride?

same way you balance people selling their index funds when ready to retire. everyone has diff goals and at a diff point in life. people who are still early in their investing journey are not looking to sell yet

 

[mentos]

1.How do you balance between potentially selling this bull run if we see price action 150-200k vs the mere fact that is happening as proof we are only going higher from there to say 300-400k range in 2028-2030? Maybe sell just enough so you have your cost basis back and let the rest ride?

2. Direct has always been ahead of the times and he's already not selling anything major until the 2028-2030 cycle so that has given me pause in this process.

3. I feel more and more convinced that in 10 years we will be in the 500k+ range.

Gotta take profits eventually.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

1.How do you balance between potentially selling this bull run if we see price action 150-200k vs the mere fact that is happening as proof we are only going higher from there to say 300-400k range in 2028-2030? Maybe sell just enough so you have your cost basis back and let the rest ride?

2. Direct has always been ahead of the times and he's already not selling anything major until the 2028-2030 cycle so that has given me pause in this process.

3. I feel more and more convinced that in 10 years we will be in the 500k+ range.

I’d like to take some profits this year (Q4) and keep some in. I feel confident that we’ll be over 100k by then, but a lot can happen between now and then.

 

[pgg]

3. I feel more and more convinced that in 10 years we will be in the 500k+ range.

I don't have a dog in this crypto fight, but where'd you get the $500K figure? Drew a line on the chart and thought number go up?

At $500K that'd put the (eventual) 21 million bitcoins around $10T.

All the gold ever mined in the history of humanity is worth something like $13T.

I'm not saying that can't or won't happen; I'm agnostic on bitcoin prices in the future. But does that really make sense or seem plausible to you?

 

[finalpsychyear]

I don't have a dog in this crypto fight, but where's you get the $500K figure? Drew a line on the chart and thought number go up?

At $500K that'd put the (eventual) 21 million bitcoins around $10T.

All the gold ever mined in the history of humanity is worth something like $13T.

I'm not saying that can't or won't happen; I'm agnostic on bitcoin prices in the future. But does that really make sense or seem plausible to you?

hard to bet against something thats up a million percent over 15 years. Once it became clear it wasn't getting banned in states and larry fink got the sec to approve the ETFs its way past the point of going away. I'd argue it's stronger than ever and gets touted on fox and cnbc to almost an annoying degree. All your millenial, gen z, and whatever comes next are obsessed with tech and smart phones and as the boomer money goes to them it will go into digital assets. Metcalf's law seems to be working so let's see in the next 12-18 mo if we get into 150 ish numbers things may happen even quicker than we expect.

 

[sevo00]

I don't have a dog in this crypto fight, but where'd you get the $500K figure? Drew a line on the chart and thought number go up?

At $500K that'd put the (eventual) 21 million bitcoins around $10T.

All the gold ever mined in the history of humanity is worth something like $13T.

I'm not saying that can't or won't happen; I'm agnostic on bitcoin prices in the future. But does that really make sense or seem plausible to you?

The whole point of it is to overtake gold lol. That’s why they call it digital gold. Have you ever watched a Michael saylor interview in its entirety?

 

[sevo00]

Anyone who has questions about bitcoin should first watch this video

 

[pgg]

hard to bet against something thats up a million percent over 15 years. Once it became clear it wasn't getting banned in states and larry fink got the sec to approve the ETFs its way past the point of going away. I'd argue it's stronger than ever and gets touted on fox and cnbc to almost an annoying degree. All your millenial, gen z, and whatever comes next are obsessed with tech and smart phones and as the boomer money goes to them it will go into digital assets. Metcalf's law seems to be working so let's see in the next 12-18 mo if we get into 150 ish numbers things may happen even quicker than we expect.

Well, it's up infinity percent over the last 50 years since it didn't exist then.

And sure, insert aphorism about markets being irrational longer than people can remain solvent, and it's certainly possible that exuberance and FOMOs can drive any asset to ridiculous levels. For a while. Sometimes a long while.

What I'm asking, specifically, is if you think it's plausible that bitcoin will achieve valuations that would result in a market cap approaching or exceeding gold - and if that makes sense to you.

Our OP's oft repeated "thesis" is that bitcoin is the currency and value store asset of the future, so I guess maybe he thinks it'll surpass gold. Do you believe it also, or are you just in it to speculate on an irrational market?

 

[pgg]

The whole point of it is to overtake gold lol. That’s why they call it digital gold. Have you ever watched a Michael saylor interview in its entirety?

And that's why I think the OP's thesis is bull****.

I've no doubt people will make and lose fortunes speculating on its price movement, but this future where it replaces gold of all things is a naive fantasy.

I'm just trying to figure out which of you are the realistic and risk tolerant speculators looking to make some money, and which of you are the true believers. Idle curiosity is all. I don't need or want bitcoin.

 

[sevo00]

And that's why I think the OP's thesis is bull****.

I've no doubt people will make and lose fortunes speculating on its price movement, but this future where it replaces gold of all things is a naive fantasy.

I'm just trying to figure out which of you are the realistic and risk tolerant speculators looking to make some money, and which of you are the true believers. Idle curiosity is all. I don't need or want bitcoin.

Here I will put it simply for you. I will buy and trade meme coins and speculate by being early and holding with conviction. I will not sell my bitcoin and keep it stored in a cold wallet where it can’t even be accessed by any hacker nor confiscated by the government

 

[finalpsychyear]

Well, it's up infinity percent over the last 50 years since it didn't exist then.

And sure, insert aphorism about markets being irrational longer than people can remain solvent, and it's certainly possible that exuberance and FOMOs can drive any asset to ridiculous levels. For a while. Sometimes a long while.

What I'm asking, specifically, is if you think it's plausible that bitcoin will achieve valuations that would result in a market cap approaching or exceeding gold - and if that makes sense to you.

Our OP's oft repeated "thesis" is that bitcoin is the currency and value store asset of the future, so I guess maybe he thinks it'll surpass gold. Do you believe it also, or are you just in it to speculate on an irrational market?

Based on ETF inflows and more global interest. I would say conservatively in 10 years it should be at least halfway there. Price action will show how quickly it comes. If it hits 200k this bull cycle we would be at a 4T MC. With a halving price close to 70 I'll go ahead and tell you what my crystal sandbagged predictions are for the next 12 months. These are the very bearish numbers you will probably hear below but i'd be content.

April 20th halving price: 67-70k roughly
2024 high: 90-100k
2025 peak- 115-130k

 

[pgg]

Why do you think the halving will have such a significant effect?

It doesn't halve the number of bitcoin in existence. It's not deflationary. It just slows mining. There are already nearly 20 million bitcoin, and it'll get to 21 eventually, halving or no halving.

I'll concede that bitcoin itself is an irrational and purely psychological phenomenon, so maybe price will spike based on FOMOs who don't know what halving means.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

I don't have a dog in this crypto fight, but where'd you get the $500K figure? Drew a line on the chart and thought number go up?

At $500K that'd put the (eventual) 21 million bitcoins around $10T.

All the gold ever mined in the history of humanity is worth something like $13T.

I'm not saying that can't or won't happen; I'm agnostic on bitcoin prices in the future. But does that really make sense or seem plausible to you?

He also said “in 10 years” but you’re still thinking in 2024 dollars. Forget crypto, imagine how much that gold market cap is going to inflate between now and 2034. Or if you’re not a fan of gold, imagine how much your house is going to be worth in 2034. That’s (partly) how you get to a $500k BTC.