When does Putin turn off our lights?

[MitchLevi]

Two most accessible titles I would recommend are

One day in the life of Ivan Denisovich by Solzhenitsyn, actually his first novel.
A Hero for our Time by Lermontov

One Day in the Life

Read that probably 5 yrs ago and found easy to read and very captivating. You could do it in a weekend.

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[NJPAIN]

A frightening situation that I have a tiny bit of insight into. August 1968 my parents decided to take their two young sons on their first airplane ride on their first overseas vacation …. to Czechoslovakia. There was talk of “instability” in the region but the US State Dept advised my Mom that there was “nothing to worry about”. Needless to say we were there when the Russian tanks rolled in. As American citizens we were able to cross the border into Austria. On the long ride out of the country I recall seeing the tanks and the longest lines for fuel and food I have ever seen. I also recall Czech citizens begging us to return home to the US and ask our government to help them.

 

[Gauss]

Correct. Putin thought he would conquer the country easily and that most of Ukraine would be happy to join him. He was wrong. If Putin had just stopped at the Donbass area of eastern ukraine, he could have taken and held that like Crimea as both areas are mostly Russian natives, speaking Russian who might welcome him, in contrast to the entire rest of the country which is Ukraine in both nationality and language.
Putin was greedy in his attempt to take everything.

He did not get the war he thought he was planning, but do not underestimate the devastation he can still inflict. If he feels he is losing, watch out.

 

[clubdeac]

the really messed up part of all of this is that over the last year the current admin killed the keystone pipeline while filling Putin's coffers through Nord Stream 2, the subsidiary of Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy company. Russia currently supplies 45% of the European Union’s natural gas imports. I think the US bought more Russian oil last year than any other time in US history b/c of Biden's *****ic policies. in 2020, the United States imported from Russia on average 76,000 barrels per day (bpd), while in 2021, that figure rose to 209,000 bpd, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. We directly helped bolster his monetary stockpile. He's been preparing for sanctions for over a year now

 

[Ducttape]

LOL. If you speak their language fluently, you don't need/want a mail order bride. All of them are shocked/happy to meet an American who understands their language and culture.
Met all of them organically, some while living in Moscow and others later. Met the belarusian in Boston which has a large Russian/Slavic population. The most beautiful woman I've ever been with and I still kick myself for screwing that up.

you should have dated a Ukrainian...

Correct. Putin thought he would conquer the country easily and that most of Ukraine would be happy to join him. He was wrong. If Putin had just stopped at the Donbass area of eastern ukraine, he could have taken and held that like Crimea as both areas are mostly Russian natives, speaking Russian who might welcome him, in contrast to the entire rest of the country which is Ukraine in both nationality and language.
Putin was greedy in his attempt to take everything.

this is an ultimate attempt by putin to reform a soviet era sphere of influence, starting with Ukraine. he essentially has Belarus and Moldavia in his back pocket.

he had Ukraine also, but lost influence after the 2014 Revolution that threw out Yanukovich. he lost all influence when Poroshenko lost to Velensky in 2019.


he will not be happy in the long term with just Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea.

he hates NATO, and hates the loss of respect of Russia since the fall of the USSR. his ultimate goal is to have NATO fail, and then he can retake Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and maybe even try to enter Poland.

 

[SSdoc33]

you should have dated a Ukrainian...



this is an ultimate attempt by putin to reform a soviet era sphere of influence, starting with Ukraine. he essentially has Belarus and Moldavia in his back pocket.

he had Ukraine also, but lost influence after the 2014 Revolution that threw out Yanukovich. he lost all influence when Poroshenko lost to Velensky in 2019.


he will not be happy in the long term with just Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea.

he hates NATO, and hates the loss of respect of Russia since the fall of the USSR. his ultimate goal is to have NATO fail, and then he can retake Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and maybe even try to enter Poland.

if he is such a history buff, then he would know that huge land wars in asia never work out. colonialism has long since died out. these are unique, sovereign countries with distict languages and cultures. this move is bound to fail and fail miserably.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

Just out of curiosity, what do you guys think the United States would do if Mexico wanted to partner up with Russia? Say they formed some type of military alliance with Russia with the potential for Russia to store weapons in Mexico or even build a military base there. Would the US invade or allow it to happen if all other methods failed to prevent it from happening? Would a pro-US government be supported, perhaps via covert or overt military operations?

I'm not defending Russia's invasion at all and I think what's going on is terrible. It makes me feel awful but I'm just curious how our country would respond if this were to happen.

 

[SSdoc33]

the obvious answer is that it wouldnt happen. russia can just launch from russia if they want to. this isnt 1961.

also, mexico needs us way more than they need help from russia.

that being said, if for some reason it did happen, then yeah, we'd go in somehow

 

[Pain Applicant1]

the obvious answer is that it wouldnt happen. russia can just launch from russia if they want to. this isnt 1961.

also, mexico needs us way more than they need help from russia.

that being said, if for some reason it did happen, then yeah, we'd go in somehow

Is it that obvious? I'm not sure. It seems proximity still means a lot. I think that's one reason Russia is raiding Ukraine and threatening Finland. Also why Israel keeps bombing Syria hoping to prevent Iran from getting too close.

I imagine it would be easier to win a war being closer to your opponent.

 

[Ducttape]

the really messed up part of all of this is that over the last year the current admin killed the keystone pipeline while filling Putin's coffers through Nord Stream 2, the subsidiary of Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy company. Russia currently supplies 45% of the European Union’s natural gas imports. I think the US bought more Russian oil last year than any other time in US history b/c of Biden's *****ic policies. in 2020, the United States imported from Russia on average 76,000 barrels per day (bpd), while in 2021, that figure rose to 209,000 bpd, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. We directly helped bolster his monetary stockpile. He's been preparing for sanctions for over a year now

Nord Stream 2 is completed, but is not moving oil. yet.

76,000 bpd in 2020 would be during the trump administration.

US oil companies have started to increase, but have been reluctant because of high profit margins at present.

Column: U.S. oil drilling rises in response to higher prices

In that sense, shale industry leaders are being true to their word, increasing the number of new wells and production more slowly than before to protect prices and profit margins and return capital to shareholders.

---
Mexico benefits greatly economically from the connections with the US. i see almost no scenario that would benefit Mexico in forming an alliance with Russia. Russia's economy is just too small. the US economy just completely dwarfs Russias (US is largest, Russia 11th, Mexico 15th.)

heck, Texas' economy is $400 billion > Russia. California, Texas and New York have larger GDPs than Russia. Florida is close.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

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Mexico benefits greatly economically from the connections with the US. i see almost no scenario that would benefit Mexico in forming an alliance with Russia. Russia's economy is just too small. the US economy just completely dwarfs Russias (US is largest, Russia 11th, Mexico 15th.)

heck, Texas' economy is $400 billion > Russia. California, Texas and New York have larger GDPs than Russia. Florida is close.

I don't think it would happen either. I'm just putting a scenario out there to think about things from Russia's perspective.

 

[Baron Samedi]

In that scenario I don't see how simply making an alliance would warrant an invasion. We would likely respond with economic sanctions and by significantly ramping up the border.

Mexico is not a US territory or colony so they can do what they want. Ukraine's relationship with NATO and hopes of joining is because that's what they want, and this invasion further justifies that wish. They are an independent nation.

NATO nations did not invade Belarus when they aligned with Russia, despite being adjacent with Poland. Russia would be completely unjustified if they had invaded other Slavic nations for their involvement with NATO. The idea that they were somehow justified because Ukraine is "close by" is ridiculous when you consider that many NATO countries, including USA, share borders with Russia.

 

[Doctodd]

i hope this is true.....

 

[Pain Applicant1]

I hope so too, minus the troops. I feel terrible for these probably mostly young kids. I don't think they have a choice and I bet most of them aren't even aware of or really care for what they're fighting for.

Why does war always seem to be rich old guys sending off someone else's young poor kid to fight and die?

 

[Agast]

I hope so too, minus the troops. I feel terrible for these probably mostly young kids. I don't think they have a choice and I bet most of them aren't even aware of or really care for what they're fighting for.

Why does war always seem to be rich old guys sending off someone else's young poor kid to fight and die?

Send Putin to fight the mayor of Kyiv in hand to hand combat

 

[Ducttape]

Putin's not worthy.

have him fight the mayor's younger brother instead.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

Send Putin to fight the mayor of Kyiv in hand to hand combat

That would be something to watch. Not that it matters but I think Putin is a judoka and he's supposedly pretty good.

I would really like to see him charged with war crimes but I fear that there would be a real nuclear threat if it ever came close to that.

 

[SSdoc33]

Jewish comedians are not known for their hand-to-hand combat skills

 

[BobBarker]

I think Putin will be asassinated either by the US or his own people. No one in Russia wants to go to war with their cousins in Ukraine or into world war. This war doesn’t make any sense. Russia won’t be able to control a country of 44M people against their will.

 

[cowboydoc]

Jewish comedians are not known for their hand-to-hand combat skills

Mayor of Kyiv, not the president.

Vitali Klitschko - Wikipedia

 

[Ducttape]

That would be something to watch. Not that it matters but I think Putin is a judoka and he's supposedly pretty good.

I would really like to see him charged with war crimes but I fear that there would be a real nuclear threat if it ever came close to that.

and his younger brother is Wladimir.



i hear crickets.

could it be Agast is more of boxing aficionado than most members of this forum?

 

[Agast]

and his younger brother is Wladimir.



i hear crickets.

could it be Agast is more of boxing aficionado than most members of this forum?

I spend more time on Reddit than is probably healthy

 

[Pain Applicant1]

and his younger brother is Wladimir.



i hear crickets.

could it be Agast is more of boxing aficionado than most members of this forum?

I know.

What should happen is Putin should admit he made a mistake, retreat, and apologize to ukraine, the russians, and the rest of the world. Is he going to accomplish his goals with this invasion in making russia stronger, more prosperous, and more secure for the future or will it have the opposite effect? Of course, men don't work this way. He'll just dig his heels in.

Who else sees no way out of this except through an internal russian revolt or a much bigger war with far more players? Putin drew redlines in that no other country should intervene. Other countries are already intervening by sending weapons and the degree of involvement is increasing by the day. I'm sure the west is also drawing redlines. If civilian casualties increase significantly or anything close to nuclear happens. I don't think the world will allow that happen.

 

[SSdoc33]

Mayor of Kyiv, not the president.

Vitali Klitschko - Wikipedia

no doubt. he is a badass

 

[SSdoc33]

I know.

What should happen is Putin should admit he made a mistake, retreat, and apologize to ukraine, the russians, and the rest of the world. Is he going to accomplish his goals with this invasion in making russia stronger, more prosperous, and more secure for the future or will it have the opposite effect? Of course, men don't work this way. He'll just dig his heels in.

Who else sees no way out of this except through an internal russian revolt or a much bigger war with far more players? Putin drew redlines in that no other country should intervene. Other countries are already intervening by sending weapons and the degree of involvement is increasing by the day. I'm sure the west is also drawing redlines. If civilian casualties increase significantly or anything close to nuclear happens. I don't think the world will allow that happen.

the best outcome comes from within russia. in internal coup, civilian or military resistance/revolt, or the oligarchs realize they have had enough of putin. we should be rooting for the ruble to completely plummet, foreign russian assets to be seized, they stock market to tank, etc. the sooner this happens, the sooner russian internal strife will take over.

the "west" has to be united in this cause. this is one thing that biden has done right. he has gotten everyone else on board. when it is the whole world vs russia there really is no winning for putin. as long as china stays on the sidelines 🙏

 

[Agast]

Moscow exchange stayed closed today. Russia is going to temporarily block foreign companies from exiting their investments via presidential decree (you can do that? Wild). Economic warfare is the new warfare. I feel so sorry for the average Russian. Even if Ukraine falls I don’t see a reversal of fortune. The penalties will continue to rise.

 

[hyperalgesia]

Moscow exchange stayed closed today. Russia is going to temporarily block foreign companies from exiting their investments via presidential decree (you can do that? Wild). Economic warfare is the new warfare. I feel so sorry for the average Russian. Even if Ukraine falls I don’t see a reversal of fortune. The penalties will continue to rise.

Especially if Ukraine falls.

Once the slaughter of Ukraine begins in earnest, there will be overwhelming pressure on Biden and Europe to engage militarily.

Then American "advisors" will be discovered on the ground. And so on.

I think we're looking at another Vietnam.

 

[Ducttape]

I disagree.

There will be no official American troop involvement. NATO? Still unlikely.

 

[bedrock]

I disagree.

There will be no official American troop involvement. NATO? Still unlikely.

Agree. The US, EU, NATO, are very upset and want to help Ukraine, but they will not risk open war with a mentally declining dictator with a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons.

 

[Agast]

Maybe Putin will have his lights turned out first

Entrepreneur puts $1 million bounty on Putin

That’s a lot of ruples!

 

[bedrock]

Maybe Putin will have his lights turned out first

Entrepreneur puts $1 million bounty on Putin

That’s a lot of ruples!

Better if Putin was just assassinated. Hopefully someone in Russia will have the яйца (balls) to do that.

 

[Agast]

Better if Putin was just assassinated. Hopefully someone in Russia will have the яйца (balls) to do that.

I wonder what he’s eating and drinking right now. And if he has an official food taster…

 

[hyperalgesia]

If I had to fight in a war, the adversary leadership would be my first and only objective. I'm not gonna go try to kill young soldiers who have families. I would to do my part in the logistical chain to find and/or take down the architects.

 

[jsaul]

Better if Putin was just assassinated. Hopefully someone in Russia will have the яйца (balls) to do that.

hopefully it works out this time

 

[MitchLevi]

If I had to fight in a war, the adversary leadership would be my first and only objective. I'm not gonna go try to kill young soldiers who have families. I would to do my part in the logistical chain to find and/or take down the architects.

You're obviously a nice guy, but this is a naive statement bc you will do everything in your power to take the life of the people trying to take yours.

Whether those Russians want to be there or not, they're there and they're going to kill you if they get the chance.

I wish Ukraine had the ability to hit that convoy.

There is an inevitable end to this, one that was predicted in the 90s by those opposed to NATO expansion - The utter annihilation of Ukraine.

It's destruction was predicted by geopolitical scholars 3 decades ago. It would be ransacked by Russian forces while the West looked on and refused to intervene directly...That's exactly what's happening.

Putin can't withdraw until he's accomplished enough to bolster his support in Moscow. Any failed objectives in Ukraine that make him look weak or incompetent are unacceptable, and many world leaders will probably have to take that into consideration when it comes time to negotiate the ending to this.

Regime change is the ultimate goal, maybe they'd settle for just taking possession of Donbas?

Terrible.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

I disagree.

There will be no official American troop involvement. NATO? Still unlikely.

Are you sure? If massacres keep happening do you not think public sentiment will push politicians to make difficult decisions? Will the world allow a slaughter to take place?

It's not limited to Ukraine. Did Czechoslovakia satiate Hitler? What if Finland and Sweden push to join NATO? What happens then? Where will it end?

I'm glad I'm in a position of zero political power. I would never be able to make these impossible decisions?

Please let isolation and economic collapse cause an overthrow so these decisions don't have to be made.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

You're obviously a nice guy, but this is a naive statement bc you will do everything in your power to take the life of the people trying to take yours.

Whether those Russians want to be there or not, they're there and they're going to kill you if they get the chance.

I wish Ukraine had the ability to hit that convoy.

There is an inevitable end to this, one that was predicted in the 90s by those opposed to NATO expansion - The utter annihilation of Ukraine.

It's destruction was predicted by geopolitical scholars 3 decades ago. It would be ransacked by Russian forces while the West looked on and refused to intervene directly...That's exactly what's happening.

Putin can't withdraw until he's accomplished enough to bolster his support in Moscow. Any failed objectives in Ukraine that make him look weak or incompetent are unacceptable, and many world leaders will probably have to take that into consideration when it comes time to negotiate the ending to this.

Regime change is the ultimate goal, maybe they'd settle for just taking possession of Donbas?

Terrible.

Why don't they have that ability? Would supplying them with the airpower or whatever weaponry to do that cross a red line?

 

[MitchLevi]

Why don't they have that ability? Would supplying them with the airpower or whatever weaponry to do that cross a red line?

They have no air superiority.

Oh...Yes, sending air into Ukraine results in a widespread conflict which pote tilly results in WW3.

 

[bedrock]

Are you sure? If massacres keep happening do you not think public sentiment will push politicians to make difficult decisions? Will the world allow a slaughter to take place?

It's not limited to Ukraine. Did Czechoslovakia satiate Hitler? What if Finland and Sweden push to join NATO? What happens then? Where will it end?

There is one huge thing you are forgetting. There were no nuclear weapons in 1939.

No one is going to directly attack Russian in a military fashion over Ukraine (a non NATO country).

The average public is not smart. Doesn't matter if they cry for direct intervention or not. Directly attacking Russia would be risking the end of the world to save just one country.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

They have no air superiority.

Oh...Yes, sending air into Ukraine results in a widespread conflict which pote tilly results in WW3.

There is one huge thing you are forgetting. There were no nuclear weapons in 1939.

No one is going to directly attack Russian in a military fashion over Ukraine (a non NATO country).

The average public is not smart. Doesn't matter if they cry for direct intervention or not. Directly attacking Russia would be risking the end of the world to save just one country.

I get that but where does it end? Who will stop them from taking over other countries? Russia is not the only nuclear power in the world. They have to fear us as much as we fear them.

So Ukraine can receive only certain weapons but not others? I guess they can only be supported to the point where they should never really be able to beat Russia because the world fears Putin. I guess we'll have to hope for a stalemate and hope that Russia will make an agreement to eventually back out.

What kind of precedent will this set?

If the world refuses to stand against nuclear-armed countries I imagine an attack by Israel on Iran will be looming in the very near future.

 

[RoloTomassi]

What happens to all the millions of dollars and supplies everyone is sending Ukraine when Russia takes over? They just get to keep it?

 

[SSdoc33]

There is one huge thing you are forgetting. There were no nuclear weapons in 1939.

No one is going to directly attack Russian in a military fashion over Ukraine (a non NATO country).

The average public is not smart. Doesn't matter if they cry for direct intervention or not. Directly attacking Russia would be risking the end of the world to save just one country.

you might want to try to convince some of the others on this board about this little piece of information.

everyone wants to talk like a hawk, but that is not the right way to handle this

 

[Ducttape]

Are you sure? If massacres keep happening do you not think public sentiment will push politicians to make difficult decisions? Will the world allow a slaughter to take place?

It's not limited to Ukraine. Did Czechoslovakia satiate Hitler? What if Finland and Sweden push to join NATO? What happens then? Where will it end?

I'm glad I'm in a position of zero political power. I would never be able to make these impossible decisions?

Please let isolation and economic collapse cause an overthrow so these decisions don't have to be made.

once the US gets involved, then we are in WWIII. it will most likely involve nuclear weapons

---

Russia will not attempt to attack a NATO country because it is aware of the response from all NATO members.

one of the reasons for Putin not to attack during the previous administration is because the prior administration was actively working to fulfill Putins desire to eliminate NATO. without NATO, he could piecemeal suck up the Baltic and Slavic states with no resistance. however, the present administration has been strengthening NATO and that goes counter to Putins desire to re-establish a USSR.

---

FYI.... Star Trek lore has WW3 starting in 2026. so right on time. unfortunately, 600 million will die...

and also:

All I Really Need to Know I Learned from Watching Star Trek by Dave Marinaccio: 9780517883860 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books

How to win at poker. The power of a business's mission statement. If you can dial a telephone, you can do anything. These are the lessons to be learned from "Star Trek." First a hit television show,...

www.penguinrandomhouse.com

 

[Baron Samedi]

What happens to all the millions of dollars and supplies everyone is sending Ukraine when Russia takes over? They just get to keep it?

Yes, they keep it.

 

[SSdoc33]

You're obviously a nice guy, but this is a naive statement bc you will do everything in your power to take the life of the people trying to take yours.

Whether those Russians want to be there or not, they're there and they're going to kill you if they get the chance.

I wish Ukraine had the ability to hit that convoy.

There is an inevitable end to this, one that was predicted in the 90s by those opposed to NATO expansion - The utter annihilation of Ukraine.

It's destruction was predicted by geopolitical scholars 3 decades ago. It would be ransacked by Russian forces while the West looked on and refused to intervene directly...That's exactly what's happening.

Putin can't withdraw until he's accomplished enough to bolster his support in Moscow. Any failed objectives in Ukraine that make him look weak or incompetent are unacceptable, and many world leaders will probably have to take that into consideration when it comes time to negotiate the ending to this.

Regime change is the ultimate goal, maybe they'd settle for just taking possession of Donbas?

Terrible.

i think you are right. ukraine will be flattened.

1 mil refugees so far. expect to see another 2 or 3. it is easier to leave now than it was in 1941. and the cities may have little allure to return whenever this thing is over. hopefully the countryside will be spared.

as far as casualties? i dont even want to think about it.

legit question: if you were in the ukraine right now, would you stay and fight, or would you leave?

 

[hyperalgesia]

We can't tiptoe around bullies. We have to stand up for our values. I'm not convinced this is a fight worth having at this point but it's not because Putin is flexing his nukes. That's not how MAD works.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

you might want to try to convince some of the others on this board about this little piece of information.

everyone wants to talk like a hawk, but that is not the right way to handle this

That's easy for you to say as you're not in Ukraine. I'm not pretending to know the answer to this mess nor do i have one but I imagine people in pre ww2 felt similar to the way we're feeling now and made similar arguments. True there were no nukes at the beginning of it but they just got over ww1 a couple of decades earlier leaving tens of millions dead. They knew that entering the war would lead to 10 of millions more dying, including their friends and children. Doesn't matter if they died by atomic energy or not.

 

[MitchLevi]

legit question: if you were in the ukraine right now, would you stay and fight, or would you leave?

Easy - I die bloody and exhausted.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

once the US gets involved, then we are in WWIII. it will most likely involve nuclear weapons

---

Russia will not attempt to attack a NATO country because it is aware of the response from all NATO members.

one of the reasons for Putin not to attack during the previous administration is because the prior administration was actively working to fulfill Putins desire to eliminate NATO. without NATO, he could piecemeal suck up the Baltic and Slavic states with no resistance. however, the present administration has been strengthening NATO and that goes counter to Putins desire to re-establish a USSR.

---

FYI.... Star Trek lore has WW3 starting in 2026. so right on time. unfortunately, 600 million will die...

and also:

All I Really Need to Know I Learned from Watching Star Trek by Dave Marinaccio: 9780517883860 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books

How to win at poker. The power of a business's mission statement. If you can dial a telephone, you can do anything. These are the lessons to be learned from "Star Trek." First a hit television show,...

www.penguinrandomhouse.com

So then you're admitting that Russia fears NATO and won't provoke it because it understands the response. Why stop at NATO members then? Why not let Russia understand that the same response from NATO will happen if it continues with its current course of action in Ukraine.

 

[Ducttape]

we have established relationships that we need to honor.

the threat of force doesnt work if it is used willy nilly, and the rest of the world will come to view us as the true bully.