I have been checking this forum on and off for many years but never felt I had anything meaningful enough to post, especially since the "regulars" are usually spot on. However, I am sure that this thread is generating a lot of interest and anxiety so I finally decided I would post to provide some facts and opinions.
I'm about 5 years out of residency and at the main site of an academic center. I'm not the program director, but I am very good friends with most of the residents since we are close in age and not that far in our careers. Overall, I truly believe that we have an excellent residency program and our residents are very well trained.
However, I can objectively verify the common themes that others have posted. In the past 4-5 years:
1. Our residency program has expanded, in fact it has nearly doubled. We had 4 residents for at least 20-25 years and now we have 7. In other words, every 4 years we graduate 3 more residents than we used to, and worse yet each of these residents plans to work for 30+ years . . . you do the math but clearly the equilibrium has shifted and will continue to do so for many, many years to come.
2. The vast majority of our attendings value resident education over resident work. I see patients, especially routine non-educational follow-ups alone all the time so the resident can do more meaningful things AND we hired mid-level providers out of our clinical practice fund, i.e. no bonus, to enhance resident education. Despite this, there are more than one or two attendings who act like it is a violation of the US constitution for an attending to see a patient without a resident or be interrupted from one of their 10-15+ research meetings, conference calls, etc per week, and there is at least 1 attending in his early 70's who makes a full salary and has no plans to retire but literally could not see patients without a resident (I'll leave it at that). These individuals would love to increase the residency spots even further because of their own selfishness and they couldn't care less what happened to those residents after graduation, let alone 10-15 years from now.
3. All of the private practices in the community have shut down or been acquired. Within a 75-125 mile radius (depending on which direction) there is now only one other hospital system, so you have to work for the university, the other system, or move very far away.
4. JOBS UPON GRADUATION
Two positions have been filled since I have been here, both by internal graduates. As somebody else mentioned, they would never hire an applicant unless somebody they knew knew them. What's a million times better than that . . . a resident who graduated at the top of their medical school class then performed brilliantly under my direct supervision day after day for four years and is well liked by the staff, familiar with the area, referring physicians, etc. We have two such individuals every single year (see #1 above) so even if a position were to open anytime soon, they would get first priority.
The other residents have all found jobs in hospital based private practice or academic satellites (although two were MD/PhD none were "die hard" academics). I stayed in contact during the interview process and still talk to several of them. Long story short, I can confirm what most others have said: there are plenty of jobs out there, many that pay very well from day 1 (don't kid yourself, you can make more in one day, or maybe even one half of one day, than most of your patients make working M-F) with a lot of vacation (6-8 weeks . . . there are also plenty of 4 day week jobs out there too), benefits (retirement, life/disability insurance, even crazy things like any doctor gets "all you can eat, all day, every day, from the cafeteria), etc but you are going to have to live in a small to medium sized city, which among other things makes it very difficult for your spouse, who is probably a professional, to find a job and of course to stay near family. On the flip side, cost of living is very low AND you make way more because of supply/demand.
I can think of many residents who graduated recently whom I have talked to in the past few months, all but one of whom are very happy and satisfied with there personal and professional lives, and one current PGY-5. They are living/working in: here, Alabama (not Birmingham), Arizona (not Phoenix), Georgia (not Atlanta), Northeast Ohio, rural Virginia, and someplace in Missouri (not sure if it is near St. Louis).
In summary, there are plenty of jobs that pay very, very well, with incredible benefits and wonderful staff/colleagues/patients, etc. but God help you if you are determined to live in San Diego, Boston, NYC, or for that matter in any given location in any given year. Clearly, things are going to get more difficult every year for the foreseeable future.