The ultimate COVID thread

[radsisrad]

Stock market crashing because of the effect on the economy, and incompetent administration response to the coronavirus? Fake news.

Bolded is completely dishonest, and you know it.

In a world with airplanes and dense cities, there is no stopping a highly-transmissible respiratory virus. The thousands of doctors and med students on this forum all know this.

In a "globalized" world, the markets' fate was sealed as soon as this virus spread to a couple dozen people in China.

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[deleted59964]

Did iran test all possible cases? or just these very sick who went to hospital?

I'll ask

 

[dannyboy1]

If this thing is as contagious as the cold there will be no point of a quarantine. It’s gonna get out.

 

[facted]

If this thing is as contagious as the cold there will be no point of a quarantine. It’s gonna get out.

It is. It has a very similar infection number as the common flu.

 

[deleted126335]

Did iran test all possible cases? or just these very sick who went to hospital?

If you don't take a temperature, you can't find a fever.
Don't ask. Don't tell.

 

[facted]

If you don't take a temperature, you can't find a fever.
Don't ask. Don't tell.

That's the current US approach. As of earlier this week, we had only tested 430 people (and all testing had to go to CDC in Atlanta)

Lo and behold, now they're saying these two Washington State cases show genomically that it's been circulating through the community there for weeks.

 

[d9sccr]

That's the current US approach. As of earlier this week, we had only tested 430 people (and all testing had to go to CDC in Atlanta)

Lo and behold, now they're saying these two Washington State cases show genomically that it's been circulating through the community there for weeks.

Honestly, I think we’re going to find out that’s been the case everywhere. Who knows how long China was ignoring/burying this.

 

[facted]

Zero% growth prediction for two quarters this year

Virus recession? Top economist Ed Hyman sees zero US growth the next two quarters

"More cases are showing up in the U.S. and seem likely to be just the start," Ed Hyman said. "Scope, severity, and duration are uncertain."

www.cnbc.com

And this is the guy making the prediction:

Ed Hyman, the Best Strategist You've Never Heard Of

Ed Hyman has been voted Wall Street's top economist by Institutional Investors for 35 consecutive years.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[periopdoc]

In 2016, Hyman said there was no way the market would go up without further QE from the Fed.

 

[periopdoc]

Data through the weekend that I am seeing is showing no deaths in children under 9, a 0.2% mortality rate for age 10 to 39, a 0.4% mortality rate from 40 to 49, and 1.3 from 50 to 59. None if this is controlled for pre-existing health conditions, but other reports are claiming the vast majority of deaths are in individuals with diabetes, lung disease, cardiovascular disease, and other chronic health conditions.

Folks, these are basically flu numbers in the productive segment of the population. It's still super early in the process in the US, and the total number killed may be higher than flu if it is significantly more virulent, but so far there is no data to support the worst case scenario.

The market is already up 0.5% tonight. I think the Friday buy was a good one. I probably will set some trailing stops, just in case the news gets worse.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Data through the weekend that I am seeing is showing no deaths in children under 9, a 0.2% mortality rate for age 10 to 39, a 0.4% mortality rate from 40 to 49, and 1.3 from 50 to 59. None if this is controlled for pre-existing health conditions, but other reports are claiming the vast majority of deaths are in individuals with diabetes, lung disease, cardiovascular disease, and other chronic health conditions.

Folks, these are basically flu numbers in the productive segment of the population. It's still super early in the process in the US, and the total number killed may be higher than flu if it is significantly more virulent, but so far there is no data to support the worst case scenario.

The market is already up 0.5% tonight. I think the Friday buy was a good one. I probably will set some trailing stops, just in case the news gets worse.

Periop, The market is due for a dead cat bounce. I doubt this bottom holds and we at least re-visit the intraday lows of Friday. Monday on the close or Tuesday will tell us if we anywhere near a bottom.

 

[periopdoc]

It's all quants/ algos now.

What happens with the market depends on what the internal metrics say. I don't have access to that data anymore, but I did for long enough to get a general sense of where the market is.

I would have to look at the option chains to even get a clue of what is going to happen. The quants will sometimes give the market a false bottom, and let the market rise a bit, just so they can pull the rug out from under you. They won't plan to reverse it to the upside, until the downside speculation is maxed out.

Given the way the weekend news was favorable on the Coronavirus impact, it is possible that they have pushed it as low as they think they can. Barring any more bad news they will let it ride to the upside for a bit.

On the slightly longer timeframe, there is a lot of money trying to tank the market into the election. It's been a pretty obvious setup for a while. I just can't tell when they will pull the trigger. It looks like there was some pressure from the dark pools last week, but not the all out anal pounding they are primed to deliver.

If this Coronavirus thing starts to have a big effect in the US, I suspect that will trigger the avalanche of downside pressure, and I wouldn't want to be long the market until after the election.

 

[Velefunt]

In general, owning stock in the company where you are an employee is foolish. If you got that stock as part of your employment, it's best to dispose of it as soon as you are contractually able to. Having a large chunk of your net worth in one company, and having your income depend on that same company, is the ultimate anti-diversification. Add a dash of emotional connection (positive or negative) to the decision to keep or sell that particular equity, and it's just begging for things to end in tears.

Japanese Salary Man has entered the chat...

 

[periopdoc]

That VIX though. Whew. S&P down 0.8% now. Whipsaw baby. At a VIX of 42, we should expect 3 to 4 reversals today.

 

[periopdoc]

And, what do you know? This came across my desk from NEJM just now.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Of note, there were no cases in children younger than 15 years of age.

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

 

[periopdoc]

And now the market is up 0.8% The kind of night you can make a year's worth if returns. Man, I miss the action, but I don't miss the sleepless nights. Friday buys on fire.

 

[abolt18]

Enjoyed this from WCI's monthly newsletter.

"It's extremely rare to hear of anyone winning at it (market timing) over a period of years. Indeed, I've never heard of such a genius." (Jack Brennan, Vanguard CEO)

"I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two." (Warren Buffet)

"Forget about timing the market, it doesn't work. You'll lose money. Invest for the long haul and then sit back and wait -- the market always goes up in the long-run." (Paul Farrell, CBS Marketwatch)

"There will always be someone predicting disaster and someone predicting great fortune. At one time or another, each will be closer to correct than the other. But it won't matter to you if you understand this and have invested responsibly. You have a long-term plan; stick with it." (Peter Lynch)

"The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room." (Jane Bryant Quinn, author, columnist)

"Market Timing is a poor substitute for a long-term investment plan." (Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal)

"There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." (Bill Bernstein, author and advisor)

"Some people in the popular press talk about 'getting into' a bull market and 'getting out of' a bear market, but it is all marketing hype." (Rick Ferri, author and advisor)

"There is an overwhelming body of evidence to support the view that believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future." (Larry Swedroe, author and advisor)

"The facts suggest that successful market timing is extraordinarily difficult to achieve." (Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street)

"I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time." (Jack Bogle, Common Sense on Mutual Funds)

"If you become upset when one of your asset classes does poorly, even when the rest of your portfolio is doing well, then you should not be managing your own money." (Bill Bernstein, Four Pillars of Investing)

"Staying on course may be just as difficult in bull markets as in bear markets." (Good & Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success)

"I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (Jack Bogle)

"I don’t think more than perhaps one in 100 investors will be successful using timing." (Paul Merriman, author of Investing for a Lifetime)

"The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero." (Morgan Housel, Wall Street Journal and Motley Fool columnist)

 

[periopdoc]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ all I know is, my biggest buy in, on Friday, was AAPL, and it's up 7% now. Wish I was still trading options.

Even my Boeing spec is up 2%

 

[Deanmonster]

The govt response to pandemic, dropping interest rates, is pretty interesting. I dont think it will fend off the coronavirus, though.

I sold some stuff today. Good luck, all.

 

[facted]

The govt response to pandemic, dropping interest rates, is pretty interesting. I dont think it will fend off the coronavirus, though.

I sold some stuff today. Good luck, all.

Dropping interest rates is interesting (and utterly useless).

Will that counteract companies telling employees to stop all travel across the country or encourage people to ignore quarantines and go on shopping sprees with all that cheap credit? I'm thinking not.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

jesus christ

 

[vector2]

jesus christ

 

[deleted126335]

You only get so many heartbeats....Don't waste them exercising. Makes perfect sense.

 

[narcotics999]

You only get so many heartbeats....Don't waste them exercising. Makes perfect sense.

great, we should take bb.

 

[vector2]

Apparently this is real life and not from an onion article :

 

[periopdoc]

AAPL 12.5% gain since my Friday purchase. Knew that stock was gold on Friday.

 

[periopdoc]

I don't disagree with the statements about timing the market. People who have a constant need to trade, and try to time the market do very poorly. The constant search for yield is addictive. Very addictive.

Being said, it is possible to selectively trade highly leveraged bets, with mathematically smart downside protection, to take advantage of market extremes, when they present themselves.

2 things make this basically impossible for most people. Impatience, and lack of time.

I've made an absolute killing this last 4 or 5 years, more than making up for starting 7 to 10 years later than most of my peers. I did it by trading rarely, but constantly watching for the opportunity. Waking up at all hours to see where things stand in the world markets etc.

Problem is, the opportunities rarely come at convenient times. A few are predictable in advance (election night 2016, Brexit vote). Most aren't. One has to be ready, and watching, at all times. It is ****ing exhausting, and it requires a discipline that most people just don't have. You can't get in early, you can't get in late. If you do, you are chasing yield, and chasing your tail, and you lose.

That's why I'm stepping away from it. I achieved my goal. I'm tired of the stress. I want to spend my energy on something else.

Was it worth it? I'm not sure. It cost me a lot of time with my family. It may have even taken time off my life. I'm tired of never truly being able to turn off. I don't really sleep anymore. I see trading friends dying young. I've lost real-life friends, and relationships. It's not a part-time job. It's a second full-time job. That's the cost that most traders won't tell you about.

And for what? Digits on paper? I don't know.

The risk of trading isn't just the risk of loss if you are unsuccessful. There is a cost to success, and I'm not sure it's worth it.

 

[marr65]

I don't disagree with the statements about timing the market. People who have a constant need to trade, and try to time the market do very poorly. The constant search for yield is addictive. Very addictive.

Being said, it is possible to selectively trade highly leveraged bets, with mathematically smart downside protection, to take advantage of market extremes, when they present themselves.

2 things make this basically impossible for most people. Impatience, and lack of time.

I've made an absolute killing this last 4 or 5 years, more than making up for starting 7 to 10 years later than most of my peers. I did it by trading rarely, but constantly watching for the opportunity. Waking up at all hours to see where things stand in the world markets etc.

Problem is, the opportunities rarely come at convenient times. A few are predictable in advance (election night 2016, Brexit vote). Most aren't. One has to be ready, and watching, at all times. It is ****ing exhausting, and it requires a discipline that most people just don't have. You can't get in early, you can't get in late. If you do, you are chasing yield, and chasing your tail, and you lose.

That's why I'm stepping away from it. I achieved my goal. I'm tired of the stress. I want to spend my energy on something else.

Was it worth it? I'm not sure. It cost me a lot of time with my family. It may have even taken time off my life. I'm tired of never truly being able to turn off. I don't really sleep anymore. I see trading friends dying young. I've lost real-life friends, and relationships. It's not a part-time job. It's a second full-time job. That's the cost that most traders won't tell you about.

And for what? Digits on paper? I don't know.

The risk of trading isn't just the risk of loss if you are unsuccessful. There is a cost to success, and I'm not sure it's worth it.

Damn. You need to buy a great bed and learn how to sleep again. I wish you the best!

 

[periopdoc]

Trading is a lot like football. Most people lack either the skill, the discipline, or both, to progress beyond the high school level.

I feel like the guy who made it to the NFL, and I'm looking at my second, or third, contract. I'll never be a starting QB, or DE. I'm never going to make the really big bucks. I'm just a career journeyman, at best. Sure, there is still decent money as a journeyman. I still get to celebrate the big plays, the big wins, but I'm still a marginal player. The years of hits have taken a toll on me. The offseason looks daunting. And I question whether it was all worth it.

No regrets, really. I'll always look back, with fondness, on election night 2016, Brexit, and the day we shorted bitcoin less than 24 hours from it's record high, like they were conference championship wins. But I may always wonder if it was really worth it, and I will probably never recommend this path to anyone else, even though it worked out for me, and I achieved the goal I set for myself.

 

[Wkrdoc]

What’s a reasonable percentage paid to a portfolio manager? 5-6%? How often do you pay them out? Quarterly?

 

[pjl]

AAPL 12.5% gain since my Friday purchase. Knew that stock was gold on Friday.

I just bought a few months ago instead.

 

[pjl]

Duplicate

 

[pjl]

I much prefer just looking back to when the market/a stock was last at these levels, and realizing I would have been sitting on cash waiting for the crash for that long, but no longer to make a profit. I am both not educated enough, and don’t pay enough attention to “win” by timing to a great degree.

That said, I did add a bit extra in my play accounts on a few positions over the last few days.

 

[Spikebd]

Are any critical care docs concerned about COVID in their units? Seems inevitable that it’s going to hit. Thankfully I don’t have any medical conditions But it’s still going to suck to be inundated with COVID at work.

 

[BLADEMDA]

What’s a reasonable percentage paid to a portfolio manager? 5-6%? How often do you pay them out? Quarterly?

0.25% up to 1% depending on the manager. The money is deducted from your account. Both Vanguard and Fidelity offer portfolio management as does Schwab. Robo Investing has very low fees in the 0.25% range.

Investing

Investing is key to building wealth, saving money simply isn't enough. Learn about investing, from basic concepts to more advanced stock, day trading and alternative investment strategies.

www.thebalance.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

Best Robo-Advisors of May 2024 - NerdWallet

Best Robo-Advisors · Betterment · Wealthfront · Vanguard Digital Advisor · Fidelity Go® · Acorns · Ellevest · SoFi Automated Investing.

www.nerdwallet.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

All the big Wallstreet firms have money managers.

The top-rated money-management firms

www.cnbc.com

 

[pgg]

What’s a reasonable percentage paid to a portfolio manager? 5-6%? How often do you pay them out? Quarterly?

Oh my god no.

Less than 1%. And there are very compelling arguments that it's a complete waste of money. A 1% annual drag on your portfolio is absolutely massive over your lifetime. You don't need a manager.

Start here.

 

[Wkrdoc]

Oh my god no.

Less than 1%. And there are very compelling arguments that it's a complete waste of money. A 1% annual drag on your portfolio is absolutely massive over your lifetime. You don't need a manager.

Start here.

That’s 1% of their gains right? So if they make you 100k you pay them 1k?

 

[deleted126335]

That’s 1% of their gains right? So if they make you 100k you pay them 1k?

It is typically a percentage of assets under management. Although those fees have been falling as well. See also roboadvisors.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile

 

[Mman]

That’s 1% of their gains right? So if they make you 100k you pay them 1k?

LOL, as mentioned the fees are for the money they manage, not the gains they make. If you pay 1% fee (per year) and invest $1M, you are paying them $10,000 whether your portfolio goes up or down. I mean if your portfolio goes down 20%, the good news is you will only owe them $8,000 next year for managing your now $800,000. If it goes up 20%, you get to pay them $12,000 for managing $1.2M.

Try paying that every year for 30 years and you are now spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees simply to do the work for you that wasn't that hard to do in the first place.

 

[deleted171991]

LOL, as mentioned the fees are for the money they manage, not the gains they make. If you pay 1% fee (per year) and invest $1M, you are paying them $10,000 whether your portfolio goes up or down. I mean if your portfolio goes down 20%, the good news is you will only owe them $8,000 next year for managing your now $800,000. If it goes up 20%, you get to pay them $12,000 for managing $1.2M.

Try paying that every year for 30 years and you are now spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees simply to do the work for you that wasn't that hard to do in the first place.

I would pay an experienced and proven investor the Warren Buffett partnership's 0/6/25 fee, as long as most of his personal wealth is invested alongside my money.

"The formula is 0/6/25:

• 0% Management fee
• 6% Annual performance hurdle with high water mark. That means you need a minimum of 6% gain to start getting paid. The high water mark is the highest peak in value that the investment has reached. The manager cannot collect an incentive fee unless the fund’s value is above the high water mark and returns are above the hurdle rate.
• 25% fee on gains over 6%"

Charlie Munger’s Commentary on the 1960s Buffett Partnerships Fee Structure

Charlie Munger used Monish Pabrai as an example because he’s one of the rare to used the original Buffett Partnerships free structure. Monish went 10 years without taking fees, just living of…

brianlangis.wordpress.com

Otherwise, one can have the S&P 500 or BRK.B, or a target-date fund, for peanuts in fees.

 

[Epilepsy365]

I don't disagree with the statements about timing the market. People who have a constant need to trade, and try to time the market do very poorly. The constant search for yield is addictive. Very addictive.

Being said, it is possible to selectively trade highly leveraged bets, with mathematically smart downside protection, to take advantage of market extremes, when they present themselves.

2 things make this basically impossible for most people. Impatience, and lack of time.

I've made an absolute killing this last 4 or 5 years, more than making up for starting 7 to 10 years later than most of my peers. I did it by trading rarely, but constantly watching for the opportunity. Waking up at all hours to see where things stand in the world markets etc.

Problem is, the opportunities rarely come at convenient times. A few are predictable in advance (election night 2016, Brexit vote). Most aren't. One has to be ready, and watching, at all times. It is ****ing exhausting, and it requires a discipline that most people just don't have. You can't get in early, you can't get in late. If you do, you are chasing yield, and chasing your tail, and you lose.

That's why I'm stepping away from it. I achieved my goal. I'm tired of the stress. I want to spend my energy on something else.

Was it worth it? I'm not sure. It cost me a lot of time with my family. It may have even taken time off my life. I'm tired of never truly being able to turn off. I don't really sleep anymore. I see trading friends dying young. I've lost real-life friends, and relationships. It's not a part-time job. It's a second full-time job. That's the cost that most traders won't tell you about.

And for what? Digits on paper? I don't know.

The risk of trading isn't just the risk of loss if you are unsuccessful. There is a cost to success, and I'm not sure it's worth it.

LOL Why don’t you fess up and admit that you lost a ton day trading stocks? Trading = gambling. I’m glad that you’re realizing the net endgame and calling it quit.

It is not hard to make 15-25% per year if you know what you’re doing. Buy on cheap and hold those names for 5-10 years. The key is to identify names on cheap but that’s a topic for another discussion.

 

[Epilepsy365]

Enjoyed this from WCI's monthly newsletter.

"It's extremely rare to hear of anyone winning at it (market timing) over a period of years. Indeed, I've never heard of such a genius." (Jack Brennan, Vanguard CEO)

"I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two." (Warren Buffet)

"Forget about timing the market, it doesn't work. You'll lose money. Invest for the long haul and then sit back and wait -- the market always goes up in the long-run." (Paul Farrell, CBS Marketwatch)

"There will always be someone predicting disaster and someone predicting great fortune. At one time or another, each will be closer to correct than the other. But it won't matter to you if you understand this and have invested responsibly. You have a long-term plan; stick with it." (Peter Lynch)

"The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room." (Jane Bryant Quinn, author, columnist)

"Market Timing is a poor substitute for a long-term investment plan." (Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal)

"There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." (Bill Bernstein, author and advisor)

"Some people in the popular press talk about 'getting into' a bull market and 'getting out of' a bear market, but it is all marketing hype." (Rick Ferri, author and advisor)

"There is an overwhelming body of evidence to support the view that believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future." (Larry Swedroe, author and advisor)

"The facts suggest that successful market timing is extraordinarily difficult to achieve." (Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street)

"I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time." (Jack Bogle, Common Sense on Mutual Funds)

"If you become upset when one of your asset classes does poorly, even when the rest of your portfolio is doing well, then you should not be managing your own money." (Bill Bernstein, Four Pillars of Investing)

"Staying on course may be just as difficult in bull markets as in bear markets." (Good & Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success)

"I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (Jack Bogle)

"I don’t think more than perhaps one in 100 investors will be successful using timing." (Paul Merriman, author of Investing for a Lifetime)

"The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero." (Morgan Housel, Wall Street Journal and Motley Fool columnist)

These are all words of wisdom, in which ones don’t realize the depth until after 10+ yrs of exp in the market.

Market timing is a sucker game.

 

[Mman]

It is not hard to make 15-25% per year if you know what you’re doing. Buy on cheap and hold those names for 5-10 years. The key is to identify names on cheap but that’s a topic for another discussion.

It's not hard if you have been only investing during the recent prolonged bullmarket. It is almost impossible to generate those kind of returns over a 30+ year time horizon.

 

[Epilepsy365]

It's not hard if you have been only investing during the recent prolonged bullmarket. It is almost impossible to generate those kind of returns over a 30+ year time horizon.

Honestly, it doesn’t matter if it’s a bull market or a bear market for guys like Buffett. There is always a bear market and a bull market somewhere. The key is to identify strong or promising names on cheap that you’re willing to buy and hold for 10 years and double down on more at cheaper prices. Sure a guy like Buffett can use technical analysis aka voodoo science to set entry prices but that’s the end usage of that thing.

 

[Mman]

Honestly, it doesn’t matter if it’s a bull market or a bear market for guys like Buffett. There is always a bear market and a bull market somewhere. The key is to identify strong or promising names on cheap that you’re willing to buy and hold for 10 years and double down on more at cheaper prices. Sure a guy like Buffett can use technical analysis aka voodoo science to set entry prices but that’s the end usage of that thing.

yes it does matter for Buffet, he has explicitly said so in the past. When he ends up sitting on loads of cash it's because he can't find anything suitable to buy. Now where he is today he obviously is limited in what he is able to buy compared to somebody investing $10K, but he hasn't been in that sort of position for decades and there aren't the so called "cigarette butts" laying around to buy for 10 cents on the dollar that there used to be in the 1960s when he was doing it.

You might be right about whether something is expensive or cheap, but the market can remain irrational longer than your investing timeline. Nobody is pulling down 25% returns long term.

 

[facted]

Northern Italy is being placed on lockdown.

 

[Epilepsy365]

yes it does matter for Buffet, he has explicitly said so in the past. When he ends up sitting on loads of cash it's because he can't find anything suitable to buy. Now where he is today he obviously is limited in what he is able to buy compared to somebody investing $10K, but he hasn't been in that sort of position for decades and there aren't the so called "cigarette butts" laying around to buy for 10 cents on the dollar that there used to be in the 1960s when he was doing it.

You might be right about whether something is expensive or cheap, but the market can remain irrational longer than your investing timeline. Nobody is pulling down 25% returns long term.

Buffett may start out buying cigarette butts for 10 cents on the dollar in the 60s, but his investment strategy has evolved over the years due to the influence of Ken Fisher and Munger.

He is more of a growth investor nowadays than anything.

 

[marr65]

Northern Italy is being placed on lockdown.

View attachment 297853

And our President just said he doesn’t like people on the cruise ship to disembark onto American soils. Main reason: So as to not bump up our number of infected.