Housing market 2022

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ambiturner

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Rather than continuing to derail the Austin thread, a new thread about housing. The first sign of an overheated housing market is that everyone is talking about housing.

It is my opinion that what is happening in housing right now is tragic and represents a huge blow to the American standard of living. That said, a correction is certainly plausible as a lot of the money for these purchases came from the markets which have cooled off, and interest rates are rising.

I will probably need a new house in the next couple years. Do you get in now before it gets worse, or ride it out? I think we’re still a few years away from a big correction or serious defaults, so if I found a place I liked I think I would buy it now. I also have benefitted greatly from the stock market gains the past 2 years so worst case I could pay cash and get more than I could have pre pandemic.

Obligatory chart of housing affordability index:

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The fact that more and more people in the younger generation are recognizing the importance of increased walkability/housing density/upzoning/fighting against NIMBYs makes me think that the housing market supply will increase and prices will either flatline (not keeping pace with inflation) or actually come down a little in the next 10 years. I don't think we'll ever see another 2008-level crash in our lifetimes, though.
 
Housing market is so discouraging in AZ right now. Just a couple years ago everything was so affordable but now people are going 10-20% above asking price in bidding wars since reopening from COVID
 
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The argument against there being a correction coming to the housing market is the number of cash buyers out there. My brother in law recently sold a house for over $750k (was ~$500k 4 years ago) and had multiple cash offers. This is in an area with high property tax and good school districts, which is normally young families who may have high earning potential, but are relatively cash poor.
 
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At least a couple of big differences between now and 2006 ...

1) Inventory levels are low, and staying low.

2) As @GravelRider just mentioned, the market is full of cash buyers. We're not seeing Walmart-greeters and semi-pro lizard breeders getting interest-only no-doc mortgages for McMansions. We just bought a house in December. The first place we made an offer on, someone came in with an all-cash offer about $100K over asking, which was over our over-ask offer.


We're listing the house we're leaving in a week or two, depending on how fast we can get some repairs done. Everyone seems to think it'll sell about 20 minutes after we list it. I don't know if we're in a bubble or not, but I sure hope whatever it is lasts a few more weeks. :)
 
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The argument against there being a correction coming to the housing market is the number of cash buyers out there. My brother in law recently sold a house for over $750k (was ~$500k 4 years ago) and had multiple cash offers. This is in an area with high property tax and good school districts, which is normally young families who may have high earning potential, but are relatively cash poor.
If the fed hits the brakes too hard...stocks correct...people will be less inclined to part with as much of their precious cash. Housing prices will soften.
 
The argument against there being a correction coming to the housing market is the number of cash buyers out there. My brother in law recently sold a house for over $750k (was ~$500k 4 years ago) and had multiple cash offers. This is in an area with high property tax and good school districts, which is normally young families who may have high earning potential, but are relatively cash poor.
I think a lot of these ‘cash’ offers are people who have enough assets that, if they liquidated, they could pay cash but end up getting a mortgage anyway. That’s probably the route I’ll end up going as it’s an easy way to make your offer more competitive when you’re sitting on inflated assets.

Of course if stock valuations fall too much these sorts of stretch maneuvers may go away, but who knows.
 
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It all depends on neighborhood and “entry price point”. The going “entry price” point for my neighborhood is 1 million in florida. Aka $300 plus a square foot for a home updated probably 10-12 years ago (homes are between 15-25 years old in my neighborhood). Updated homes(within the past 2-5 years) go for $350-almost $400 a a square foot

So if you have a non updated home and are the “entry price” zone. It’s the best time to sell. There was an ugly home that sold for $280/sq foot in my neighborhood looked like original flooring and fixtures from the late 90s. That’s the home u want to unload.

I got random all cash offer for 2 million for my house at $350/sq foot but turned it down. Cause I just gutted it and spent 300k on renovations. I can clear easily 600k profit even after renovations just buying it less than 2 year ago. Cause I got it for $200/sq foot.

But our other home we sold for $200/sq door now is worth almost $300/sq foot in the same time frame.

So really no where to run. Unload if u have a new place to go or if it’s secondary property. But stay and renovate if u want a “new home”.
 
I think a lot of these ‘cash’ offers are people who have enough assets that, if they liquidated, they could pay cash but end up getting a mortgage anyway. That’s probably the route I’ll end up going as it’s an easy way to make your offer more competitive when you’re sitting on inflated assets.

Of course if stock valuations fall too much these sorts of stretch maneuvers may go away, but who knows.


Private equity bros are not just buying up anesthesia practices. Yay capitalism.


“Let’s focus on Invitation Homes, a $21 billion publicly traded company that was spun off from Blackstone, the world’s largest private equity company, in 2017. Invitation Homes operates in 16 cities, with the biggest concentration in Atlanta, where it owns 12,556 houses. (Though that’s not much compared with the 80,000 homes sold in Atlanta each year, Invitation Homes bought 90 percent of the homes for sale in some ZIP codes in Atlanta in the early 2010s.) While normal people typically pay a mortgage interest rate between 2 percent and 4 percent these days, Invitation Homes can borrow money for far less: It’s getting billion-dollar loans at interest rates around 1.4 percent. In practice, this means that Invitation Homes can afford to tack on an extra $5,000 to $20,000 to the purchase price of every home, while getting the house at the same actual cost as a typical homeowner. While Invitation Homes uses a mixture of debt and cash from renters to buy houses, its offers are almost always all cash, which is a big leg up in a competitive market.
One way to think about Invitation Homes’ business strategy is to consider the value of the properties the firm is buying, relative to the rents they charge. According to a recent SEC disclosure, Invitation Homes’ portfolio of homes is worth of total of $16 billion (after renovations), and the company collects about $1.9 billion in rent per year. That means it takes only about eight years of rental payments to pay back a typical house that Invitation Homes has bought. The usual rule of thumb for evaluating a fair sale price, says Kundan Kishor, professor of economics at University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, “is that price to rent ratios are around 20 to 1.” When price-to-rent ratios are very high, it makes more sense for consumers to rent than to buy, and when they are low, it makes more sense to buy than to rent. That Invitation Homes is getting deals twice as good as a typical homebuyer shows that it’s not just buying any homes: It’s buying the specific houses with the greatest potential to be wealth-building for the middle class.”

“It’s not exactly accurate that investors are “buying every single-family house they can find,” as some have suggested. If that were true, their market share in the United States wouldn’t be a piddling 15 percent. They’re really buying up the stock of relatively inexpensive single-family homes built since the 1970s in growing metro areas. They mostly ignore bigger and more expensive houses, especially ones that are move-in ready: Wealthy boomers and the nation’s finance and tech bros nab those properties. And they’re also ignoring cities with stable or shrinking populations, like Providence and Pittsburgh.

But investors are depleting the inventory of the precise houses that might otherwise be obtainable for younger, working- and middle-class households, in the cities where those workers can easily find good-paying jobs, like Atlanta (22 percent of home purchases according to Redfin data), Charlotte (22 percent), and Phoenix (20 percent). More importantly, they’re able to scour those markets scientifically and systematically to make cash offers on the most attractively priced properties. While normal people buy houses when they actually need to move somewhere, (savvy) investors buy houses several years before a bunch of people need to move to an area. Whether they’re tracking where major employers are building new offices or looking at public school enrollment data, being ahead of the market gives big firms a big leg up.”





Even more depressing…..


 
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At least a couple of big differences between now and 2006 ...

1) Inventory levels are low, and staying low.

2) As @GravelRider just mentioned, the market is full of cash buyers. We're not seeing Walmart-greeters and semi-pro lizard breeders getting interest-only no-doc mortgages for McMansions. We just bought a house in December. The first place we made an offer on, someone came in with an all-cash offer about $100K over asking, which was over our over-ask offer.


We're listing the house we're leaving in a week or two, depending on how fast we can get some repairs done. Everyone seems to think it'll sell about 20 minutes after we list it. I don't know if we're in a bubble or not, but I sure hope whatever it is lasts a few more weeks. :)
In high demand areas where the growth and population shifts still outpace supply, the market will continue to be pretty hot. I have a friend in the suburbs that listed his house on a Friday, had 54 showings over the weekend, and selected the best of the multiple over-asking-price offers he received from the weekend.
 
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