Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

[cincincyreds]

It isnt all serviced at that rate... There won't be a great default, that is a mythical situation conjured by the right when they aren't in power to con people in to voting for them then immediately forgetting about it and not doing anything about the debt after the election.

You are 100% correct. It is NOT SERVICED at the current Fed Funds rate TODAY. But as the treasuries mature, the new ones will be at the new rates and that's when the trouble of the massive debt begins. We are getting to the point there is not any road left to kick the can down. We will have to pay the piper and that is not gonna be a fun day.

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[coffeebythelake]

Math doesn't care about anyone's politics. The money has been spent, the debt has piled up, and sooner or later, unless we believe in fairy tales, the piper will be paid.

Its all about income and expenses. Skewed priorities. For one thing let's stop corporate welfare and the tremendous tax loopholes that allow millions of rich Americans to get obscenely rich by not contributing to society. For another we can significantly reduce spending in certain areas such as defense research and still be decades ahead of our adversaries. I agree debt is a huge problem and that bucket is kicked down the line by both Democrats and Republicans.

 

[pgg]

Math doesn't care about anyone's politics. The money has been spent, the debt has piled up, and sooner or later, unless we believe in fairy tales, the piper will be paid.

It's possible that "sooner or later" will be later enough that the world will change in fundamental ways that alter the math.

We've seen it happen multiple times in the last couple centuries. An industrial revolution, end of slavery, world wars, etc. The real folly is thinking that there can't be another cataclysmic or other world-altering event in the next 50 years. It'll probably be climate change - something we are very well positioned to mitigate and adapt to, that most of the rest of the world isn't and can't.

This isn't a defense of our excessive spending, or the stupid burden of debt we've saddled our kids with.

I've written this before here: imagine you're an alien, visiting the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy, and orbiting a small unregarded yellow sun at a distance of roughly ninety-eight million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue-green planet. They're observing ape-descended life forms competing for scarce resources. On one continent, let's call it North America, you have a bunch of monkeys who've spent the last century importing natural resources from other continents, which they'd "paid for" with promises and little green pieces of paper.

Who do you think the aliens will conclude is "winning" that exchange?

Objectively, we're doing OK, even if we default ...

We have all the advantages. Geography, natural resources, technology, military, capitalism, functioning democracy, a disproportionate share of the best universities in the world, industry, agriculture, eager inexpensive immigrant labor from the south, polite people living to the north, two really big ocean moats between us and the places that burn with war and famine every so often.


As for servicing the debt, keep in mind that (1) it doesn't all reset to a new interest rate twelve seconds after the Fed acts to raise rates, and (2) we have an exceptionally low tax burden by global standards with room to go up.

Nobody knows exactly how or when this will play out. But if you're stocking the bunker in the compound, maybe choose foodstuffs with a 30-year shelf life as opposed to a bunch of avocados or bananas. The first thing to prepare for is long and boring retirement.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

But if you're stocking the bunker in the compound, maybe choose foodstuffs with a 30-year shelf life as opposed to a bunch of avocados or bananas.

You still hate those avocados
🤣🤣🤣

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

It's possible that "sooner or later" will be later enough that the world will change in fundamental ways that alter the math.

We've seen it happen multiple times in the last couple centuries. An industrial revolution, end of slavery, world wars, etc. The real folly is thinking that there can't be another cataclysmic or other world-altering event in the next 50 years. It'll probably be climate change - something we are very well positioned to mitigate and adapt to, that most of the rest of the world isn't and can't.

This isn't a defense of our excessive spending, or the stupid burden of debt we've saddled our kids with.

I've written this before here: imagine you're an alien, visiting the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy, and orbiting a small unregarded yellow sun at a distance of roughly ninety-eight million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue-green planet. They're observing ape-descended life forms competing for scarce resources. On one continent, let's call it North America, you have a bunch of monkeys who've spent the last century importing natural resources from other continents, which they'd "paid for" with promises and little green pieces of paper.

Who do you think the aliens will conclude is "winning" that exchange?

Objectively, we're doing OK, even if we default ...

We have all the advantages. Geography, natural resources, technology, military, capitalism, functioning democracy, a disproportionate share of the best universities in the world, industry, agriculture, eager inexpensive immigrant labor from the south, polite people living to the north, two really big ocean moats between us and the places that burn with war and famine every so often.


As for servicing the debt, keep in mind that (1) it doesn't all reset to a new interest rate twelve seconds after the Fed acts to raise rates, and (2) we have an exceptionally low tax burden by global standards with room to go up.

Nobody knows exactly how or when this will play out. But if you're stocking the bunker in the compound, maybe choose foodstuffs with a 30-year shelf life as opposed to a bunch of avocados or bananas. The first thing to prepare for is long and boring retirement.

Yes I've always said come crazy miracle innovation, such as cars fueled by water instead of gas, could grow the economy out of debt, but the math doesn't change. Before you tally up those amazing economic gains, you still have 100 trillion (or whatever the current number is of all public and private debt) to take off the top of those gains.

The idea of running up outrageous fiscal obligations like a drunken Madoff, and then writing it off as, eh we'll figure something out, has both a bit of denial and banking on great luck in the future. Didn't work out so good for Bernie. Maybe this time will be different....

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

We've seen it happen multiple times in the last couple centuries. An industrial revolution, end of slavery, world wars, etc. The real folly is thinking that there can't be another cataclysmic or other world-altering event in the next 50 years. It'll probably be climate change - something we are very well positioned to mitigate and adapt to, that most of the rest of the world isn't and can't.

All of those are economic drains except the industrial revolution, which gets to, we could innovate and grow the economy out of debt (not holding on my breath on that happening btw). Obviously ending slavery was the right thing to do, but I'm sure the economy liked having the free labor. A major war would be absolutely disastrous to our financial situation.

Climate change would/will also be another huge financial drain whether we solve it or not. Imagine if the temperature would just stay where it is and we wouldn't have to put ungodly levels of resources towards climate change that could instead be directed elsewhere.

 

[pgg]

All of those are economic drains except the industrial revolution, which gets to, we could innovate and grow the economy out of debt (not holding on my breath on that happening btw). Obviously ending slavery was the right thing to do, but I'm sure the economy liked having the free labor. A major war would be absolutely disastrous to our financial situation.

Climate change would/will also be another huge financial drain whether we solve it or not. Imagine if the temperature would just stay where it is and we wouldn't have to put ungodly levels of resources towards climate change that could instead be directed elsewhere.

WWII was an economic drain, absolutely, but it also kicked off 50+ of the best years the USA has ever seen, as our less-strained and less-damaged country enjoyed all sorts of advantages over a planet that was mostly destroyed.

There's a parallel here to climate change that astute observers will recognize, even if it's maybe a little insensitive to say it out loud. In the next 50-100 years, much of the world is going to be a wreck. China is ****ed, so is India, the whole Pacific Rim / Indonesia, obviously Africa, the Middle East is the Middle East except with declining oil revenues and silly fantasies about transitioning economies to tourism (ha!) or trade/financial centers (haha!), Russia is Russia... Europe will probably do fine, though they're an odd mix of wealthy competence and helplessness and are saddled with their odd wannabe "United States of Europe" weak central government that isn't really a central government, so I'm skeptical a prosperous Germany is endlessly going to subsidize a struggling Greece the way California sucks it up and subsidizes Alabama.

Anyway. I think there are likely paths to another century+ of US prosperity if not world dominance, that don't involve magical ideas like water fueled cars.

But who knows.

 

[Dr. Rude]

WWII was an economic drain, absolutely, but it also kicked off 50+ of the best years the USA has ever seen, as our less-strained and less-damaged country enjoyed all sorts of advantages over a planet that was mostly destroyed.

There's a parallel here to climate change that astute observers will recognize, even if it's maybe a little insensitive to say it out loud. In the next 50-100 years, much of the world is going to be a wreck. China is ****ed, so is India, the whole Pacific Rim / Indonesia, obviously Africa, the Middle East is the Middle East except with declining oil revenues and silly fantasies about transitioning economies to tourism (ha!) or trade/financial centers (haha!), Russia is Russia... Europe will probably do fine, though they're an odd mix of wealthy competence and helplessness and are saddled with their odd wannabe "United States of Europe" weak central government that isn't really a central government, so I'm skeptical a prosperous Germany is endlessly going to subsidize a struggling Greece the way California sucks it up and subsidizes Alabama.

Anyway. I think there are likely paths to another century+ of US prosperity if not world dominance, that don't involve magical ideas like water fueled cars.

But who knows.

Agree but, instead of outpacing the rest of the world in improvement in standard of living, I think that it is more likely we will just suffer less of a decline.

 

[HopelessMS]

Ending the year 2022 with capital gains of low 5 figures selling puts and calls with a sprinkle of assignments.
As a MS senior, I am satisfied with my efforts.

With income next year as an intern (fingers crossed), hope to be able to find time to continue to selling puts/calls when appropriate (thank goodness for limit orders, set and forget).

My strategy will shift to focus more on accumulating for the long term.

 

[narcotics999]

Well at least someone gets it. It doesn't matter whether it culminates in a great default or hyperinflation, we're closer everyday to where inflation rates have to be elevated to attract debt buyers in an inflationary environment which would chew through unsustainable levels of tax revenue. Low interest rates would require endless printing to buy the debt as no one else will buy debt except the Fed. Massive austerity won't happen. Everybody wants their government freebies and aren't willing to budge.

People that argue with you simply don't see the big picture. As Thomas Andrews said in the Titanic:

"The pumps (Fed) buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment no matter what you do, the Titanic (USA) will founder....

I assure you, she can sink, and she will. It is a mathematical certainty."

Boom, math remains undefeated.

Ok, assume SHE will sink in my lifetime or my kid’s, what should I do to make it less painful?

I guess only my skill, my muscle (minimal), maybe some strong kids can help?

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Ending the year 2022 with capital gains of low 5 figures selling puts and calls with a sprinkle of assignments.
As a MS senior, I am satisfied with my efforts.

With income next year as an intern (fingers crossed), hope to be able to find time to continue to selling puts/calls when appropriate (thank goodness for limit orders, set and forget).

My strategy will shift to focus more on accumulating for the long term.

Selling out of the money covered calls on your long term stocks at a strike price high enough where you would be fine selling anyway can be a nice way of collecting a "dividend" on your investment.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

It's possible that "sooner or later" will be later enough that the world will change in fundamental ways that alter the math.

We've seen it happen multiple times in the last couple centuries. An industrial revolution, end of slavery, world wars, etc. The real folly is thinking that there can't be another cataclysmic or other world-altering event in the next 50 years. It'll probably be climate change - something we are very well positioned to mitigate and adapt to, that most of the rest of the world isn't and can't.

This isn't a defense of our excessive spending, or the stupid burden of debt we've saddled our kids with.

I've written this before here: imagine you're an alien, visiting the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy, and orbiting a small unregarded yellow sun at a distance of roughly ninety-eight million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue-green planet. They're observing ape-descended life forms competing for scarce resources. On one continent, let's call it North America, you have a bunch of monkeys who've spent the last century importing natural resources from other continents, which they'd "paid for" with promises and little green pieces of paper.

Who do you think the aliens will conclude is "winning" that exchange?

Objectively, we're doing OK, even if we default ...

We have all the advantages. Geography, natural resources, technology, military, capitalism, functioning democracy, a disproportionate share of the best universities in the world, industry, agriculture, eager inexpensive immigrant labor from the south, polite people living to the north, two really big ocean moats between us and the places that burn with war and famine every so often.


As for servicing the debt, keep in mind that (1) it doesn't all reset to a new interest rate twelve seconds after the Fed acts to raise rates, and (2) we have an exceptionally low tax burden by global standards with room to go up.

Nobody knows exactly how or when this will play out. But if you're stocking the bunker in the compound, maybe choose foodstuffs with a 30-year shelf life as opposed to a bunch of avocados or bananas. The first thing to prepare for is long and boring retirement.

I've been taking a really hard look at a lot of stuff, and something as simple as 6 people liking your post that has basically an air of dismissal (denial? whatever word, this isn't meant as personal in any way) of some very major problems while my post received next to no appreciation only adds to my belief we are drastically closer to 2000 and 1929 than we are to 1982.

No, I can't tell anyone what year exactly the Dow drops 5 or 10 or more thousand and still isn't a buying opportunity, but if retirement is long I don't think it will be boring. Every chart I analyze and personally draw on says we are up in some really thin air, and the pistol is without many bullets left in the cylinder.

Just the way I see it. Will be funny, but not funny, to watch the Fed simultaneously take on both a crashing market and inflation, being that both approaches are directly opposed to each other.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Ok, assume SHE will sink in my lifetime or my kid’s, what should I do to make it less painful?

I guess only my skill, my muscle (minimal), maybe some strong kids can help?

I don't know, Pray? lol
Don't see how in your lifetime you don't have at least as big a crisis as 2008 and likely much bigger.

 

[vector2]

 

[epidural man]

I love market players.

Today, they are yelling “Feds say the economy is getting worse and outlook is poor and they have accomplished the goal of increased unemployment which will decrease economic output even more! That means they will slow interest rate hikes. Yeah! Buy buy buy!”

 

[deleted1116990]

For the Bogleheads, take a long look at this chart.

So many are who became wealthy on paper over the past decade are about to be burned by recency bias.
You make money in bull markets with passive investing. Active traders struggle. It's easy to laugh at them. We are in a huge passive investing bubble. Everyone was a genius in the 90s and the 10s (edit).
You make money in bear markets with active trading. That thing they really, really, reaaallllly hate. Bear markets and bull markets can last for quite a long time. Who's laughing now?

Do you have 20-30 years to wait it out? I do (probably).

Plan accordingly.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Unless it's passive investing in US stocks. Impossible to get burned that way. From the Bogleheads, the same guys who were so convinced of this, that they leveraged into 3X US stock funds. The blowup of that just happened quicker. The non-leveraged funds will come back to earth as well. You don't have to sell all your equities. Just don't go all in because you are sure you found the bottom at 3500 or whatever.

 

[deleted1116990]

That means they will slow interest rate hikes. Yeah! Buy buy buy!”

The huge crashes always, reliably happen months AFTER the fed stops hiking. They are chasing the 2 year yield, and there is a lag. The yields are coming down, riiiight about now. Will stop hiking soon, maybe a little celebration because people can't remember history then boom.

Maybe time to buy TBT puts?

 

[MirrorTodd]

For the Bogleheads, take a long look at this chart.

So many are who became wealthy on paper over the past decade are about to be burned by recency bias.
You make money in bull markets with passive investing. Active traders struggle. It's easy to laugh at them. We are in a huge passive investing bubble. Everyone was a genius in the 90s and the 00s.
You make money in bear markets with active trading. That thing they really, really, reaaallllly hate. Bear markets and bull markets can last for quite a long time. Who's laughing now?

Do you have 20-30 years to wait it out? I do (probably).

Plan accordingly.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Unless it's passive investing in US stocks. Impossible to get burned that way. From the Bogleheads, the same guys who were so convinced of this, that they leveraged into 3X US stock funds. The blowup of that just happened quicker. The non-leveraged funds will come back to earth as well. You don't have to sell all your equities. Just don't go all in because you are sure you found the bottom at 3500 or whatever.

Technically I do, but my god that is going to kinda suck to finally hit my fatfire number at 60 or 70. lol

 

[Dr. Rude]

For the Bogleheads, take a long look at this chart.

So many are who became wealthy on paper over the past decade are about to be burned by recency bias.
You make money in bull markets with passive investing. Active traders struggle. It's easy to laugh at them. We are in a huge passive investing bubble. Everyone was a genius in the 90s and the 10s (edit).
You make money in bear markets with active trading. That thing they really, really, reaaallllly hate. Bear markets and bull markets can last for quite a long time. Who's laughing now?

Do you have 20-30 years to wait it out? I do (probably).

Plan accordingly.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Unless it's passive investing in US stocks. Impossible to get burned that way. From the Bogleheads, the same guys who were so convinced of this, that they leveraged into 3X US stock funds. The blowup of that just happened quicker. The non-leveraged funds will come back to earth as well. You don't have to sell all your equities. Just don't go all in because you are sure you found the bottom at 3500 or whatever.

If you have won the game stop playing and take your chips off the table. TIPs have the best yields in more than a decade. Positive across the entire yield curve.

 

[deleted1147063]

If you have won the game stop playing and take your chips off the table. TIPs have the best yields in more than a decade. Positive across the entire yield curve.

People should never forget that. One should figure out a retirement number and, once one reaches it, one should minimize one's risks of losing money (that also means not practicing medicine without sovereign immunity, not even for fun).

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Upstart Holdings hasn't done so well since that 5 star bang-up recommendation at its peak
😂😂

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

For the Bogleheads, take a long look at this chart.

So many are who became wealthy on paper over the past decade are about to be burned by recency bias.
You make money in bull markets with passive investing. Active traders struggle. It's easy to laugh at them. We are in a huge passive investing bubble. Everyone was a genius in the 90s and the 10s (edit).
You make money in bear markets with active trading. That thing they really, really, reaaallllly hate. Bear markets and bull markets can last for quite a long time. Who's laughing now?

Do you have 20-30 years to wait it out? I do (probably).

Plan accordingly.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Unless it's passive investing in US stocks. Impossible to get burned that way. From the Bogleheads, the same guys who were so convinced of this, that they leveraged into 3X US stock funds. The blowup of that just happened quicker. The non-leveraged funds will come back to earth as well. You don't have to sell all your equities. Just don't go all in because you are sure you found the bottom at 3500 or whatever.

Wow we really are at 1929 valuations. I came to the same conclusion looking at it differently, but I will say confirmation is not comforting.

 

[epidural man]

How could you possibly know this?

The bottom will happen when capitulation occurs

Seriously? You could have used the word “selling” just as affectively and it would have prevented me wasting 10 minutes on Investopedia trying to figure out what the hell you are saying. 😂

Although I don’t mind being a pedant when I’m able.

Also, it would also seem that the convergence you mention is too early of a buy signal.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

The bottom is in. Rate hikes will be slowed down in December, inflation is coming down, PCE just missed to the downside

 

[BLADEMDA]

The bottom is in. Rate hikes will be slowed down in December, inflation is coming down, PCE just missed to the downside

Mike Wilson says the "bottom" is next year at 3000- 3400 S and P 500. He estimates the S and P 500 at 3900 by the end of 2023. While we all know predictions are worthless he has been mostly right this year. Wilson says earnings will suffer early 2023 and stocks will fall back. Wilson says the market may rally up to 4100 by the end of this year before retracing in 2023.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

A lot of wisdom here, regardless how the predictions play out.

(scroll past the sign up stuff to read the article)

Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says the S&P 500 won't hit a new high for a long time - and predicts a US recession and stubborn inflation

The S&P 500 won't return to its peak of 4,800 points for a while, and will generate mediocre returns until at least 2030, Cooperman said.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

You have to take everything hedge fund guys take with a grain of salt because they’re usually saying these things to get out of positions or cause the market to go in a favorable direction for their positions. See bill ackman covid meltdown on cnbc. A lot of funds are either net short right now or have more short exposure than usual. Many were probably hoping to short down to 3000-3200

 

[BLADEMDA]

Wilson, who serves as the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday’s close in early 2023.

“You should expect an S&P between 3,000 and 3,300 some time in probably the first four months of the year,” he said. “That’s when we think the deacceleration on the revisions on the earnings side will kind of reach its crescendo.”

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed at 3,957.63, a 17% decline so far this year. Wilson’s year-end price target was 3,900 for this year, too.

“The bear market is not over,” he added. “We’ve got significantly lower lows if our earnings forecast is correct.”

 

[undalay]

Dollar index and Oil price are being manipulated to keep the stock market fantasy prices up. Why would tech companies lay off significant portions of workforce if everything is rosy? Inflation has been hidden by suppressing the price of gold and commodities, check out GATA on LBMA. The vig on USD gets lower and lower yield. The interest rates can only go up so much before bankruptcies cause political problems. No good solutions for the economy In ICU care. Just symptom management. In the mean time don’t invest your hard earned money in another crypto scam, Ftx

 

[Dr. Rude]

Dollar index and Oil price are being manipulated to keep the stock market fantasy prices up. Why would tech companies lay off significant portions of workforce if everything is rosy? Inflation has been hidden by suppressing the price of gold and commodities, check out GATA on LBMA. The vig on USD gets lower and lower yield. The interest rates can only go up so much before bankruptcies cause political problems. No good solutions for the economy In ICU care. Just symptom management. In the mean time don’t invest your hard earned money in another crypto scam, Ftx

I don’t know anything about gold price market manipulation. Wouldn’t surprise me if it were true. But as far as tech firms laying off staff while things are “rosy”…few of these firms are profitable. With the rapid rise in interest rates, it now costs companies far more to service their debt. So the must cut costs. I have a family member who got laid off from a tech company despite stellar reviews and being the youngest manager there. She got a new job for more money in a few weeks. There are likely to be lots of highly qualified tech workers looking for jobs in the next few months. I expect packages to be less lucrative going forward. Housing is also under pressure. It’s great if you are a skilled tradesman right now. Buddy is building a house already one year post promised date. He is getting done by offering premium pay to go to the head of the line. Says there are two types of workers: 50yo+ (many over 60) white guys and young Spanish speaking workers. We need comprehensive education and immigration reform in this country.

 

[Greenbayslacker]

Sorry to derail the thread but wanted to get some advice from the gurus... how much dry powder is too much?

2.5 years out of training I have $250k cash, with another $250k spread across stocks, 401k, 529, bonds, crypto, and primary residence mortgage. Starting to feel uncomfortable holding this much cash, but don't want to start dumping just yet, into either stocks until the market has truly bottomed, or investment real estate until prices/interest rates cool off. Should I continue to collect 4-5% via HYSA until all indictors tell me to start investing, or is that time right now?

 

[Dr. Rude]

Sorry to derail the thread but wanted to get some advice from the gurus... how much dry powder is too much?

2.5 years out of training I have $250k cash, with another $250k spread across stocks, 401k, 529, bonds, crypto, and primary residence mortgage. Starting to feel uncomfortable holding this much cash, but don't want to start dumping just yet, into either stocks until the market has truly bottomed, or investment real estate until prices/interest rates cool off. Should I continue to collect 4-5% via HYSA until all indictors tell me to start investing, or is that time right now?

Conventional wisdom is you should be more invested in equities. Assuming income is stable, no big purchase imminent, etc. if you want to time things a4-5 % HYSA is a good place to park your cash.

 

[GassYous]

Sorry to derail the thread but wanted to get some advice from the gurus... how much dry powder is too much?

2.5 years out of training I have $250k cash, with another $250k spread across stocks, 401k, 529, bonds, crypto, and primary residence mortgage. Starting to feel uncomfortable holding this much cash, but don't want to start dumping just yet, into either stocks until the market has truly bottomed, or investment real estate until prices/interest rates cool off. Should I continue to collect 4-5% via HYSA until all indictors tell me to start investing, or is that time right now?

Where are you getting 4-5%?
I see the layoffs just starting and interest rates still going up. I'm not bullish about the economy in the short term.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

You should get out of crypto completely considering it’s mostly just a Ponzi scheme

 

[deleted1147063]

Sorry to derail the thread but wanted to get some advice from the gurus... how much dry powder is too much?

2.5 years out of training I have $250k cash, with another $250k spread across stocks, 401k, 529, bonds, crypto, and primary residence mortgage. Starting to feel uncomfortable holding this much cash, but don't want to start dumping just yet, into either stocks until the market has truly bottomed, or investment real estate until prices/interest rates cool off. Should I continue to collect 4-5% via HYSA until all indictors tell me to start investing, or is that time right now?

It's not about timing the market. It's about time in the market.

You're young. Even if the market dives more, it will most likely recover before you'll need the money (and you will make much more than those 250K in your life). This is the age to be 100% in stocks (beyond emergency funds for 6-12 months, which you should put in something safe, like CDs). It's much more costly to miss a market rebound (the market goes up 80% of the days, historically).

It's a no brainer. DCA into the market over 6-12 months or less. Set up an automatic monthly buy of an S&P 500 or Total Stock Market fund, set it and forget it. Or go with a Bogleheads portfolio, if it makes you sleep better. But you should be close to 100% in stocks at this age. Do not try to time the market.

 

[abolt18]

It's not about timing the market. It's about time in the market.

You're young. Even if the market dives more, it will most likely recover before you'll need the money (and you will make much more than those 250K in your life). This is the age to be 100% in stocks (beyond emergency funds for 6-12 months, which you should put in something safe, like CDs). It's much more costly to miss a market rebound (the market goes up 80% of the days, historically).

It's a no brainer. DCA into the market over 6-12 months or less. Set up an automatic monthly buy of an S&P 500 or Total Stock Market fund, set it and forget it. Or go with a Bogleheads portfolio, if it makes you sleep better. But you should be close to 100% in stocks at this age. Do not try to time the market.

This 100%. You keep waiting, you'll miss the upswing. It WILL go up! When? None of us has any clue. Will you earn a little less if you put the money in compared to a 5% lower drop? Yes, but that difference will be marginal when it comes to retirement. A rounding error.

If you're that concerned, go with dollar-cost-averaging. Spread out the contributions over several weeks or months. This will help your brain, but not necessarily your pocket book.

Highly recommend bogleheads guide to investing and guide to the 3 fund portfolio.

But first, read this.

The Psychology of Money

Let me tell you the story of two investors, neither of whom knew each other, but whose paths crossed in…

collabfund.com

 

[linkin06]

up 3% PM on slowing inflation

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Wow never seen such a quick reversal. Dow now red

Blatant insider trading yesterday and probably today too. Yesterday somebody must have had the cpi data early

 

[sethco]

You should get out of crypto completely considering it’s mostly just a Ponzi scheme

Comments like this will not be tolerated around these parts 🤣

 

[Dr. Rude]

Comments like this will not be tolerated around these parts

Sure they will. Plenty of crypto haters.

 

[pastafan]

I can't access article but Bloomberg headline:

In 60 Seconds Before CPI Hit, Heavy Trading Drove Mystery Rally​

 

[Dr. Rude]

I can't access article but Bloomberg headline:

In 60 Seconds Before CPI Hit, Heavy Trading Drove Mystery Rally​

 

[RadOncDoc21]

Market definitely doing some weird stuff this week. I’m not an expert but there wasn’t any surprises from the fed meeting

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Market definitely doing some weird stuff this week. I’m not an expert but there wasn’t any surprises from the fed meeting

Volatility around the announcement doesn't seem so abnormal. No surprises from the Fed to the upside so I would presume the rally is falling over.
(Keyword "presume" haha)

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

For the Gold Bugs:
Year long slump looks broken.
Looks very good regardless if we test or not.


View attachment 362042

CNBC is reading Studentdoctor and stealing our stuff!! I'm not sure if CNBC matching my chart (a month late, ahem) is a positive reflection of my line drawing skills, or confirmation that I'm just as full of cr*p as they are! 🤣

 

[deleted1116990]

I'm finally in the green from my large GLD and SLV purchases back in May. Painful past 6 months, wish I had averaged down more. Technicals support a short term reversal and upswing of the dollar. Although my taxable portfolio is up 5% for the year after dumping all stocks a year ago. Hah! Debating whether to dump it all vs. just hold and add more when it pulls back.

2023 prediction: the bond market is going to F'ing rip after the mother of all recessions emerges and the yield curve violently un-inverts. Equities... I sense much pain. Load up on TLT, GLD, SLV on pullbacks I think. TBT puts and GDX calls if you want more leverage.

 

[RadOncDoc21]

Stocks on sale today!

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

1.3 million job losses projected in 2023 and no rate cuts until 2024. What a joke

 

[deleted1116990]

1.3 million job losses projected in 2023 and no rate cuts until 2024. What a joke

Don't tell me you bought the soft landing narrative.

Follow the bond (debt) market. It's driving everything.

Stack cash. Will be great buying opportunities soon. For those who didn't listen and piled up debt... it's going to get ugly. Especially when the layoffs start. (this is most of America). Rates WILL eventually be cut back down near to zero and we all should be positioned to take advantage of that when it happens (it will happen after the 2 year yield falls below the FFR, and there will subsequently be a massive crash (and housing) in equities as recession emerges).

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Stocks on sale today!

Maybe, but I've found out the hard way in the past to wait a few days, up to five or so for the dust to settle. Rarely are these one day V turn arounds.