Will you take the mRNA Vaccine Immediately When Available?

[Birdstrike]

I welcome you to come to my ED to witness the "overreaction to the virus." See 1/3 of the beds are filled with boarders. See the intubated patients waiting for a 50% chance to die in the ICU. See the patients coming back 1 month after the fact with unremitting chest tightness and SOB.

I'm well aware of how serious COVID is and how deadly it can be. That's why I took the vaccine and urge others do so. But I'll pass on your invite. I'm well aware what an overwhelmed ED looks like.

I congratulate you in finding new meaning in life shooting steroids into the backs of obesity and that running 10 miles at 6am sparks joy in your heart.

It does. Thank you.

However I think you're no longer qualified to have meaningful knowledge on the impact of this pandemic on the ED.

I wasn't aware I ever qualified for that.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[wamcp]

it's like you've never seen a CXR from a covid patient. Those lungs are not healing without scarring.

Mortality is NOT the only important endpoint.

This is precisely what you aren’t fully grasping.

Disproportionate response of lockdowns and fearmongering causes a host of unnecessary economic problems and job losses, children who receive lost years of education, mental health issues, etc etc.

There is a reason why cases continue to skyrocket in california despite strict mandates. Can you explain why cases aren’t surging in less restrictive states like texas, florida etc? Becauselockdown measures don’t work - yet causes harm. Humans don’t obey like cattle.

California shatters daily COVID-19 record with more than 62,000 new cases as hospital conditions worsen

California shatters daily COVID-19 record with more than 62,000 new cases as hospital conditions worsen

www.latimes.com

keep in mind another reason the mandates don’t work, with crap like this:

Telling restaurant outdoor dining to close...

But declaring a massive catering/dining area for the “essential business” Good Girls sitcom tv show as ok.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

This is precisely what you aren’t fully grasping.

Disproportionate response of lockdowns and fearmongering causes a host of unnecessary economic problems and job losses, children who receive lost years of education, mental health issues, etc etc.

There is a reason why cases continue to skyrocket in california despite strict mandates. Can you explain why cases aren’t surging in less restrictive states like texas, florida etc? Becauselockdown measures don’t work - yet causes harm. Humans don’t obey like cattle.

California shatters daily COVID-19 record with more than 62,000 new cases as hospital conditions worsen

California shatters daily COVID-19 record with more than 62,000 new cases as hospital conditions worsen

www.latimes.com

keep in mind another reason the mandates don’t work, with crap like this:

Telling restaurant outdoor dining to close...

But declaring a massive catering/dining area for the “essential business” Good Girls sitcom tv show as ok.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

They don't?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext

Declines in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Hospitalizations ...

This report describes mitigation measures that contributed to a reduction in COVID-19 incidence, hospitalizations, and mortality in Delaware during late April–June.

www.cdc.gov

Fully agree that some of the specific rules/enforcement we're seeing are very very stupid or biased towards to powerful. Look at the long list of (mostly) democratic politicians getting caught breaking their own rules.

 

[southerndoc]

Telling restaurant outdoor dining to close...

But declaring a massive catering/dining area for the “essential business” Good Girls sitcom tv show as ok.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

Most of the film industry require frequent COVID tests (I believe 3 times/week). People are identified quickly when they have COVID in the film industry.

 

[wamcp]

They don't?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext

Declines in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Hospitalizations ...

This report describes mitigation measures that contributed to a reduction in COVID-19 incidence, hospitalizations, and mortality in Delaware during late April–June.

www.cdc.gov

Fully agree that some of the specific rules/enforcement we're seeing are very very stupid or biased towards to powerful. Look at the long list of (mostly) democratic politicians getting caught breaking their own rules.

Lockdowns absolutely do not work. In the long run, it doesn't matter. Rules imposed by governments to shut down mobility of persons does not work eventually. There will be enough covid fatigue or perpetual violators of government rules that spread conitnues to occur. Care to explain why cases continue to explode in California despite stringent measures? The only thing truly effective is initial contact tracing/isolation. Which countries like South Korea and Taiwan did and solved the covid problem without blanket lockdowns at all.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

 

[maxxor]

Lockdowns absolutely do not work. In the long run, it doesn't matter. Rules imposed by governments to shut down mobility of persons does not work eventually. There will be enough covid fatigue or perpetual violators of government rules that spread conitnues to occur. Care to explain why cases continue to explode in California despite stringent measures? The only thing truly effective is initial contact tracing/isolation. Which countries like South Korea and Taiwan did and solved the covid problem without blanket lockdowns at all.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

dude what’s your point:
we shouldn’t do anything to contain this virus?
We shouldn’t take a vaccine to stop it?

like what’s your endpoint? Do nothing? Because everything so far is basically concern trolling and muddying the waters...for what?

I’m not in ER. I don’t have nearly as hard of a job as any of you guys, but I read hundreds of CXRs and Chest CTs a week. I also read tons of CT and MR pelvis on patients where on the vent for weeks to stage their decub ulcers and check for osteomyelitis.

I don’t want those lungs or associated ecmo sequelae in anyone I know.

 

[GeneralVeers]

dude what’s your point:
we shouldn’t do anything to contain this virus?
We shouldn’t take a vaccine to stop it?

like what’s your endpoint? Do nothing? Because everything so far is basically concern trolling and muddying the waters...for what?

I’m not in ER. I don’t have nearly as hard of a job as any of you guys, but I read hundreds of CXRs and Chest CTs a week. I also read tons of CT and MR pelvis on patients where on the vent for weeks to stage their decub ulcers and check for osteomyelitis.

I don’t want those lungs or associated ecmo sequelae in anyone I know.

"We shouldn't do anything to contain the virus" - No, not at this stage. There's little we can do.
"We shouldn't take a vaccine to stop it" - We absolutely should vaccinate the elderly and high risk to protect them. The vaccine is unlikely to stop this.

Glad you are good at reading X-rays. Keep sending me those "Bilateral infiltrate concerning for pneumonia" reads.

 

[BAM!]

Interesting. Do the antibodies drop off significantly faster with infection versus the vaccine? Also do antibody levels make a difference as far as long term immunity? There's so much we don't understand about immune response.

Good questions. You're right, there is so much we don't understand (and so much I've forgotten about immunology since college and med school)!

Not sure if people know how long the antibodies last quite yet. However I remember reading somewhere that the mRNA vaccine immune response results in higher antibody titers when compared with the immune response from a natural infection. From that I guess one would surmise the mRNA vaccine confers longer immunity.

Then again, not sure how this relates to memory B cells, T cell immunity, etc.

 

[BAM!]

Lockdowns absolutely do not work. In the long run, it doesn't matter. Rules imposed by governments to shut down mobility of persons does not work eventually. There will be enough covid fatigue or perpetual violators of government rules that spread conitnues to occur. Care to explain why cases continue to explode in California despite stringent measures? The only thing truly effective is initial contact tracing/isolation. Which countries like South Korea and Taiwan did and solved the covid problem without blanket lockdowns at all.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

To one extreme, look at China's Lockdown. Whether or not you believe Chinese reports, their draconian methods seemed to work. Of course we Americans would never put up with that approach. That said, you cannot make the blanket statement, "Lockdowns absolutely do not work."

Perhaps CA's lockdowns are not as effective as one might hope. Fair enough. Yet there is a strong argument that CA simply grew tired of social distancing. Numbers seemed low so people stopped wearing masks. Then Thanksgiving rolled around and get-togethers threw additional sparks on the woodpile. It stands within reason if CA were to end the lockdowns case numbers will dramatically worsen.

Saying lockdowns don't work because the case numbers are high is like the occasionally compliant patient with HTN saying his BP meds don't work because his BP is in the 160s. What do you think will happen if he stops taking them completely?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Lockdowns absolutely do not work. In the long run, it doesn't matter. Rules imposed by governments to shut down mobility of persons does not work eventually. There will be enough covid fatigue or perpetual violators of government rules that spread conitnues to occur. Care to explain why cases continue to explode in California despite stringent measures? The only thing truly effective is initial contact tracing/isolation. Which countries like South Korea and Taiwan did and solved the covid problem without blanket lockdowns at all.

Herd Immunity and Belgium

I thought we already agreed it was mostly aerosol/airborne. I mean influenza is essentially non existent now, but covid is still flying around.

forums.studentdoctor.net

Other countries getting cases under control without lockdowns isn't proof that lockdowns don't work.

Saying that people won't follow the rules isn't proof that lockdowns don't work. That's like saying diet and exercise don't work for weight loss because most people can't stick with it.

 

[maxxor]

"We shouldn't do anything to contain the virus" - No, not at this stage. There's little we can do.
"We shouldn't take a vaccine to stop it" - We absolutely should vaccinate the elderly and high risk to protect them. The vaccine is unlikely to stop this.

Glad you are good at reading X-rays. Keep sending me those "Bilateral infiltrate concerning for pneumonia" reads.

Vaccines have stopped far more contagious diseases.

This is some nihilistic nonsense / tragedy of the commons thinking.

 

[AMEHigh]

We’re no longer allowed to critically evaluate the evidence and ask questions about new therapies? Has science failed mankind, or has mankind failed science? We just base important decisions about our health off of rhetorical sloganeering about Christmas?

Has the info about new variants likely being more transmissible changed your mind about vaccinating? My understanding is that the mRNA vaccines specifically will definitely still work well against variants. I’m not sure about the other vaccines that use the adenovirus. Do you have the same concerns about those vaccines?

In an ideal world sure we’d have years to look at all the data after 2+ years, but we’re in a pandemic 3,000+ people dying a day in this country is horrific, let alone the morbidity. I wonder if people have just become numb to it? I can’t imagine our economy will stay strong if we continue to have so many people getting sick and dying over the next year plus.

Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests (Published 2020)

Researchers warn that the British variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, may be necessary.

www.nytimes.com

 

[wamcp]

dude what’s your point:
we shouldn’t do anything to contain this virus?
We shouldn’t take a vaccine to stop it?

like what’s your endpoint? Do nothing? Because everything so far is basically concern trolling and muddying the waters...for what?

I’m not in ER. I don’t have nearly as hard of a job as any of you guys, but I read hundreds of CXRs and Chest CTs a week. I also read tons of CT and MR pelvis on patients where on the vent for weeks to stage their decub ulcers and check for osteomyelitis.

I don’t want those lungs or associated ecmo sequelae in anyone I know.

Lol, not what I have said at all

what we should do for the virus are measures that are balanced for effectiveness in stopping spread and also do not cause excessive harm.

what makes sense:

1. masks, even though unlikely to work at the population level due to noncompliance when at home/other people’s home (do you wear a mask 24/7 when you visit your family? No one does). But masks have almost no harm to use.

2. use of vaccines, targeted to the actually vulnerable (elderly, immunocompromised, the comorbid folks). The unknown vaccine risks are less magnified in this population compared to vaccinating children and healthy young adults who may have “more to lose”. I would oppose mandatory vaccination without long term data.

3. Contact tracing has little harm and should be continued, although not really effective at this stage

what doesn’t make sense:

Lockdowns. They do not reduce eventual spread and cause huge amounts of economic devastation, mental health effects, etc etc.

 

[wamcp]

To one extreme, look at China's Lockdown. Whether or not you believe Chinese reports, their draconian methods seemed to work. Of course we Americans would never put up with that approach. That said, you cannot make the blanket statement, "Lockdowns absolutely do not work."

Perhaps CA's lockdowns are not as effective as one might hope. Fair enough. Yet there is a strong argument that CA simply grew tired of social distancing. Numbers seemed low so people stopped wearing masks. Then Thanksgiving rolled around and get-togethers threw additional sparks on the woodpile. It stands within reason if CA were to end the lockdowns case numbers will dramatically worsen.

Saying lockdowns don't work because the case numbers are high is like the occasionally compliant patient with HTN saying his BP meds don't work because his BP is in the 160s. What do you think will happen if he stops taking them completely?

This is pointless to say, akin to saying “communism would work if everyone just obeyed”.

Of course “true” draconian lockdowns work if everyone complied or the government forced everyone to comply.

but in real life in western countries? No.

have you also seen the situation in Chile by the way? They have one of the worst and highest deaths per million despite curfews that arrest anyone for breaking lockdown orders

Your BP analogy is also not correct. Your BP medications is more like mask mandates. Harm is little and should be encourages.

Lockdowns have far greater harm than mask mandates while still being ultimatelt ineffective- this is like having a patient chop their leg off to lose weight in order to be “healthy”

 

[GeneralVeers]

In an ideal world sure we’d have years to look at all the data after 2+ years, but we’re in a pandemic 3,000+ people dying a day in this country is horrific, let alone the morbidity. I wonder if people have just become numb to it? I can’t imagine our economy will stay strong if we continue to have so many people getting sick and dying over the next year plus.

The economic cost of thr virus by itself would be significant, but less than the cost of the lockdowns. I think we can manage, as those 2000 deaths/day average 78 years old and represent people at the end of their life. The vast majority are not healthy, working age people.

 

[AMEHigh]

The economic cost of thr virus by itself would be significant, but less than the cost of the lockdowns. I think we can manage, as those 2000 deaths/day average 78 years old and represent people at the end of their life. The vast majority are not healthy, working age people.

I’m not sure where you live, but there are tons of cases among people with age range of 25-65 and yes most of them are working. Sure most of them don’t die, but they have to stay home from work (if there employer allows them to without firing them), hence why I included morbidity and mortality in my post. That affects the economy. I’ve know more than 1 small business shut down for a week or more after 1 or more of their employees got covid. If you have a small business, you might only have a few employees, so if a few of them are out that affects the business.

But yes it does seem like people are getting numb to the number of cases and people are dying , based on your response!

And anyway, I was just curious about the person I quoted in regards to their thoughts on other vaccines that use adenovirus or other technology as cases keep going up and up. I wonder if there is a threshold that people will start being ok with getting vaccinated. If we get to 1 million deaths? 2 million? I’d be interested to know.

 

[thegenius]

I’m not sure where you live, but there are tons of cases among people with age range of 25-65 and yes most of them are working. Sure most of them don’t die, but they have to stay home from work (if there employer allows them to without firing them), hence why I included morbidity and mortality in my post. That affects the economy. I’ve know more than 1 small business shut down for a week or more after 1 or more of their employees got covid. If you have a small business, you might only have a few employees, so if a few of them are out that affects the business.

But yes it does seem like people are getting numb to the number of cases and people are dying , based on your response!

And anyway, I was just curious about the person I quoted in regards to their thoughts on other vaccines that use adenovirus or other technology as cases keep going up and up. I wonder if there is a threshold that people will start being ok with getting vaccinated. If we get to 1 million deaths? 2 million? I’d be interested to know.

Your experience with who is being admitted is confirmed with what's at my hospital. The ages of those who are admitted to the ICU right now with COVID-19 are
39, 40, 51, 55, 57, 68, 72, 73, 90, 92, 100

 

[southerndoc]

I've known a few people who have gotten the vaccine and then tested positive a week later (after being exposed and actually developing COVID).

I haven't seen any recommendations on what to do during that case. Only a booster shot 3 months later (since they don't recommend anyone get the vaccine if they've had COVID <3 months prior), no booster shot needed, or do they repeat the entire series 3 months after being diagnosed with COVID?

Gotta love being the guinea pigs.

 

[wholeheartedly]

I've known a few people who have gotten the vaccine and then tested positive a week later (after being exposed and actually developing COVID).

I haven't seen any recommendations on what to do during that case. Only a booster shot 3 months later (since they don't recommend anyone get the vaccine if they've had COVID <3 months prior), no booster shot needed, or do they repeat the entire series 3 months after being diagnosed with COVID?

Gotta love being the guinea pigs.

CDC says there’s no recommended minimum interval between infection and vaccinaiton, but do recommend you wait until you’re recovered and out of isolation to ensure the safety of the vaccinators. The three months is if you’ve had it, you’re unlikely to be reinfected during the next 90 days so you can delay if you want.

Interim Clinical Considerations for Use of COVID-19 Vaccines | CDC

Find interim clinical considerations for the use of COVID-19 vaccines for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

 

[AMEHigh]

Your experience with who is being admitted is confirmed with what's at my hospital. The ages of those who are admitted to the ICU right now with COVID-19 are
39, 40, 51, 55, 57, 68, 72, 73, 90, 92, 100

Yes thank you for providing some info.

I’m not saying that those of us who are under 60 need to be scared to death and never leave the house, but to act like people under 70 don’t have significant morbidity from COVID in numbers and ways we’ve seen before is crazy. The virus itself is actually affecting the economy as well, it’s not just the lockdowns, so it’s in everyone’s best interest to follow mitigation efforts and get vaccinated when able.

And even plenty of people in their 70s still have healthy years ahead of them. Plus they also have family and friends that care about them. So to act like oh well, most deaths are people over 70 is insane to me and def shows people are just numb to it all.

Bottom line is the vaccines seem like our only option at the moment and I don’t want to see what things look like a year from now if people don’t get vaccinated.

 

[RustedFox]

Mrs. RustedFox got it on Sunday. + Nasal swab at her PMD's office on Monday. Symptoms are mild to moderate, primarily fatigue/myalgias. Explains why she complained that the tacos that we made on Sunday night "were flavorless" (she's a chef), yet I could tell there was plenty of cumin/coriander in the mix.

Present thinking is that I was an asymptomatic carrier and gave it to her, seeing as how she's turbo-social distancing and generally shies away from groups/etc.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Mrs. RustedFox got it on Sunday. + Nasal swab at her PMD's office on Monday. Symptoms are mild to moderate, primarily fatigue/myalgias. Explains why she complained that the tacos that we made on Sunday night "were flavorless" (she's a chef), yet I could tell there was plenty of cumin/coriander in the mix.

Present thinking is that I was an asymptomatic carrier and gave it to her, seeing as how she's turbo-social distancing and generally shies away from groups/etc.

Get an antibody test through LabCorp. $10 and you get results the next day. That way you can see if you are the horrible monster who gave her COVID.

 

[RustedFox]

Get an antibody test through LabCorp. $10 and you get results the next day. That way you can see if you are the horrible monster who gave her COVID.

This actually made me Laugh Out Loud (thanks for that).
Merry Christmas to you, amigo (and to all).
When I said "present thinking", I meant *my own theory* - I'm the guy who takes his bike to the grocery store and is still in contact with people, while she has decided to minimize her social contact. Therefore, its most likely me who was the Typhoid Mary. Thinking back: I had one night where I emptied a whole tissue box and didn't sleep; blaming it on my allergies. Zero other symptoms.

 

[Siggy]

Sorry I meant I got the shot yesterday. Does it take a few days for it to confer full immunity that it will offer me?

For Pfizer, here's the NEJM article.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=featured_home

The key figure is figure 3. Control and vaccine group diverges hard at about day 10 post injection. The way I interpret this is that you likely have fairly decent immunity around day 5 post injection. It takes 5-7 days to show symptoms. so the first 5-7 days post injection are likely people who were exposed on or immediately before they received the shot. That leaves about 3-5 days left to get to the 10 day convergence. So these people are people who got exposed the first day or two after getting the shot. So likely there's significant immunity by day 5.

 

[thegenius]

For Pfizer, here's the NEJM article.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=featured_home

The key figure is figure 3. Control and vaccine group diverges hard at about day 10 post injection. The way I interpret this is that you likely have fairly decent immunity around day 5 post injection. It takes 5-7 days to show symptoms. so the first 5-7 days post injection are likely people who were exposed on or immediately before they received the shot. That leaves about 3-5 days left to get to the 10 day convergence. So these people are people who got exposed the first day or two after getting the shot. So likely there's significant immunity by day 5.

This is good stuff. Yes there really is a sharp and permanent divergence around day 10. That vaccine line is almost perfectly 100% flat.

 

[southerndoc]

@RustedFox Check with your local EMS/fire department. They probably have a ton of Healgen rapid COVID antibody tests as well as Abbot BinaxNOW antigen tests. My daughter recently tested positive for COVID. I'm monitoring my symptoms and doing a BinaxNOW test every other day. I'm scheduled to work Monday, which should be 7 days out from her diagnosis. As long as I'm not exhibiting symptoms and have a negative COVID antigen test, I'm allowed back to work. Without the negative tests, I would have to quarantine for 10 days.

I think my fire department got 1200 BinaxNOW's and around 1000 Healgen tests for free from the federal government. We use them to test first responders (not just firefighter/EMT's, but also police officers that exhibit symptoms).

 

[Maybedoc1]

For Pfizer, here's the NEJM article.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=featured_home

The key figure is figure 3. Control and vaccine group diverges hard at about day 10 post injection. The way I interpret this is that you likely have fairly decent immunity around day 5 post injection. It takes 5-7 days to show symptoms. so the first 5-7 days post injection are likely people who were exposed on or immediately before they received the shot. That leaves about 3-5 days left to get to the 10 day convergence. So these people are people who got exposed the first day or two after getting the shot. So likely there's significant immunity by day 5.

Thoughts on this for the Moderna vaccine? I received my first dose on Saturday and I'm eagerly awaiting my second (really trying to not get covid in the interim). I was reading through the FDA Moderna briefing and they had this to say in regards to immunity after the first dose:

Additional analyses were done to assess efficacy against COVID-19 after one dose of mRNA1273. In participants in the mITT set who only received one dose of the vaccine at the time of the interim analysis, VE after one dose was 80.2% (95% CI 55.2%, 92.5%). These participants had a median follow-up time of 28 days (range: 1 to 108 days). The small, non-random sample and short median follow-up time limits the interpretation of these results. There appears to be some protection against COVID-19 disease following one dose; however, these data do not provide sufficient information about longer term protection beyond 28 days after a single dose.

It looks like there were 2 severe cases in the vaccine group after 1 dose though:

A similar analysis was conducted to look at vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 after one dose. In participants in the mITT group who received only one vaccine, 2 participants in the mRNA-1273 group and 4 participants in the placebo group developed severe COVID-19. Both participants in the vaccine group met the case definition for severe COVID-19 based on oxygen saturation <93% on room air. These results should be interpreted cautiously given the small sample size and case number and the short follow-up duration.

 

[Spikebd]

I’m not sure where you live, but there are tons of cases among people with age range of 25-65 and yes most of them are working. Sure most of them don’t die, but they have to stay home from work (if there employer allows them to without firing them), hence why I included morbidity and mortality in my post. That affects the economy. I’ve know more than 1 small business shut down for a week or more after 1 or more of their employees got covid. If you have a small business, you might only have a few employees, so if a few of them are out that affects the business.

But yes it does seem like people are getting numb to the number of cases and people are dying , based on your response!

And anyway, I was just curious about the person I quoted in regards to their thoughts on other vaccines that use adenovirus or other technology as cases keep going up and up. I wonder if there is a threshold that people will start being ok with getting vaccinated. If we get to 1 million deaths? 2 million? I’d be interested to know.

Operation Warp speed plus new mRNA vaccine technology plus no definitive evidence of reduced transmission plus no liability for vaccine manufacturer means I will be waiting for multiple YEARS of safety data before I sign up. Sure, if there’s a catastrophic change in COVID I’ll reconsider, but we aren’t there yet.
And I’m even a fan of mRNA biotechnology!

I’ll get the Novavax vaccine if forced, but still not sure if I’ll even do that without a fight.

 

[wholeheartedly]

FBI investigating COVID-19 vaccine 'tampering' after Aurora says employee intentionally removed vials from fridge, ruining 500 doses

An initial investigation led Aurora officials to believe the removal was a mistake, but the now-fired individual said Wednesday it was purposeful.

www.jsonline.com

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

Thoughts on this for the Moderna vaccine? I received my first dose on Saturday and I'm eagerly awaiting my second (really trying to not get covid in the interim). I was reading through the FDA Moderna briefing and they had this to say in regards to immunity after the first dose:

Additional analyses were done to assess efficacy against COVID-19 after one dose of mRNA1273. In participants in the mITT set who only received one dose of the vaccine at the time of the interim analysis, VE after one dose was 80.2% (95% CI 55.2%, 92.5%). These participants had a median follow-up time of 28 days (range: 1 to 108 days). The small, non-random sample and short median follow-up time limits the interpretation of these results. There appears to be some protection against COVID-19 disease following one dose; however, these data do not provide sufficient information about longer term protection beyond 28 days after a single dose.

It looks like there were 2 severe cases in the vaccine group after 1 dose though:

A similar analysis was conducted to look at vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 after one dose. In participants in the mITT group who received only one vaccine, 2 participants in the mRNA-1273 group and 4 participants in the placebo group developed severe COVID-19. Both participants in the vaccine group met the case definition for severe COVID-19 based on oxygen saturation <93% on room air. These results should be interpreted cautiously given the small sample size and case number and the short follow-up duration.

Here is the Moderna NEJM article: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

Operation Warp speed plus new mRNA vaccine technology plus no definitive evidence of reduced transmission plus no liability for vaccine manufacturer means I will be waiting for multiple YEARS of safety data before I sign up. Sure, if there’s a catastrophic change in COVID I’ll reconsider, but we aren’t there yet.
And I’m even a fan of mRNA biotechnology!

I’ll get the Novavax vaccine if forced, but still not sure if I’ll even do that without a fight.

There aren't years of long-term safety data on the COVID vaccines, true; but there also aren't years of long-term morbidity data on COVID. There is, however, vastly-higher morbidity (and mortality) in the short- and medium-term for COVID compared to the vaccine.

On one side you have:
- The known short- and medium-term morbidity and mortality of COVID to oneself
- The known short- and medium-term morbidity and mortality of COVID to one's contacts
- The unknown long-term morbidity of non-fatal COVID (some of which we can start to understand based on the known morbidity)

On the other side you have:
- The known decrease in morbidity and mortality from COVID to oneself
- The known decrease in morbidity and mortality from COVID to one's contacts
- The known minor short- and medium-term side-effects of the vaccine
- The unknown long-term effects of the vaccine (some of which we can rule out based on the known minimal short- and medium-term side-effects)

It is baffling to me that a physician will look at those choices and say "yep, those unknown long-term side-effects from the vaccine are terribly concerning; I'd rather take my chances with COVID, thank you very much."

 

[wamcp]

There aren't years of long-term safety data on the COVID vaccines, true; but there also aren't years of long-term morbidity data on COVID. There is, however, vastly-higher morbidity (and mortality) in the short- and medium-term for COVID compared to the vaccine.

On one side you have:
- The known short- and medium-term morbidity and mortality of COVID to oneself
- The known short- and medium-term morbidity and mortality of COVID to one's contacts
- The unknown long-term morbidity of non-fatal COVID (some of which we can start to understand based on the known morbidity)

On the other side you have:
- The known decrease in morbidity and mortality from COVID to oneself
- The known decrease in morbidity and mortality from COVID to one's contacts
- The known minor short- and medium-term side-effects of the vaccine
- The unknown long-term effects of the vaccine (some of which we can rule out based on the known minimal short- and medium-term side-effects)

It is baffling to me that a physician will look at those choices and say "yep, those unknown long-term side-effects from the vaccine are terribly concerning; I'd rather take my chances with COVID, thank you very much."

It is baffling to me that you can’t understand a physician’s thinking on declining the vaccine. It is in my view a choice with a clear cut risk-benefit balance

I would indeed rather take my chances with covid than receive a new experimental vaccine with only a couple months of data.

the IFR of covid for myself, in my age group and lack of comorbidities, is effectively zero

In fact i would rather catch covid than flu. Flu is more likely to kill me.

Not only that, but if infected with covid, there is a strong likelihood i will be asymptomatic and not suffer debilitating symptoms. We know in one study of an Argentinian expedition cruise ship found that 81% of those infected were asymptomatic. (COVID-19: in the footsteps of Ernest Shackleton)

is it possible there can be long term symptoms of a past covid infection? Sure. No different than the chronic fatigue syndrome patients we see who might have developed it from flu or rsv or what have you. It is a valid unknown risk.

But the thing is you fail to realize there is no data that tells us any of these brand new covid vaccines does not actually increase the severity of covid infection. It is an unknown risk.
Like with denguevirus vaccine, it took six years of analysis to find out children who were vaccinated had a higher chance of severe hospitalized illness if infected. (Vaccine trial shows more hospitalizations for dengue-naive kids)

Now. If I were 75 years old or had comorbidities. Then yes I would take a vaccine as the risk benefit calculus has changed dramatically.

 

[wamcp]

Operation Warp speed plus new mRNA vaccine technology plus no definitive evidence of reduced transmission plus no liability for vaccine manufacturer means I will be waiting for multiple YEARS of safety data before I sign up. Sure, if there’s a catastrophic change in COVID I’ll reconsider, but we aren’t there yet.
And I’m even a fan of mRNA biotechnology!

I’ll get the Novavax vaccine if forced, but still not sure if I’ll even do that without a fight.

Yeah these companies will get away scott free if any adverse problems are found. They don’t have to worry like with the failed denguevirus vaccine:

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[miacomet]

It is baffling to me that you can’t understand a physician’s thinking on declining the vaccine. It is in my view a choice with a clear cut risk-benefit balance

I would indeed rather take my chances with covid than receive a new experimental vaccine with only a couple months of data.

the IFR of covid for myself, in my age group and lack of comorbidities, is effectively zero

In fact i would rather catch covid than flu. Flu is more likely to kill me.

Not only that, but if infected with covid, there is a strong likelihood i will be asymptomatic and not suffer debilitating symptoms. We know in one study of an Argentinian expedition cruise ship found that 81% of those infected were asymptomatic. (COVID-19: in the footsteps of Ernest Shackleton)

is it possible there can be long term symptoms of a past covid infection? Sure. No different than the chronic fatigue syndrome patients we see who might have developed it from flu or rsv or what have you. It is a valid unknown risk.

But the thing is you fail to realize there is no data that tells us any of these brand new covid vaccines does not actually increase the severity of covid infection. It is an unknown risk.
Like with denguevirus vaccine, it took six years of analysis to find out children who were vaccinated had a higher chance of severe hospitalized illness if infected. (Vaccine trial shows more hospitalizations for dengue-naive kids)

Now. If I were 75 years old or had comorbidities. Then yes I would take a vaccine as the risk benefit calculus has changed dramatically.

30% of Ohio State student athletes with Covid had myocarditis. It's not just the death rate.

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

Let's compare apples to apples here. This constant moving of the goalposts within a single post is dizzying.

I would indeed rather take my chances with covid than receive a new experimental vaccine with only a couple months of data.

Let's not pretend you have years of data on COVID-19. How do the outcomes from the vaccine compare to the outcomes from the disease at similar time-points?

the IFR of covid for myself, in my age group and lack of comorbidities, is effectively zero

What is the vaccine fatality rate for yourself, in your age group and lack of comorbidities?

Not only that, but if infected with covid, there is a strong likelihood i will be asymptomatic and not suffer debilitating symptoms. We know in one study of an Argentinian expedition cruise ship found that 81% of those infected were asymptomatic. (COVID-19: in the footsteps of Ernest Shackleton)

If you get the vaccine ,there is published evidence that you will suffer no significant debilitating symptoms either. You will also further decrease your risk of contracting covid and will play a strong part in preventing the spread of the pandemic.

is it possible there can be long term symptoms of a past covid infection? Sure. No different than the chronic fatigue syndrome patients we see who might have developed it from flu or rsv or what have you. It is a valid unknown risk.

But the thing is you fail to realize there is no data that tells us any of these brand new covid vaccines does not actually increase the severity of covid infection. It is an unknown risk.
Like with denguevirus vaccine, it took six years of analysis to find out children who were vaccinated had a higher chance of severe hospitalized illness if infected. (Vaccine trial shows more hospitalizations for dengue-naive kids)

No, I don't fail to realize there are unknown long-term risks of the vaccine--I said as such in my original post. You are the one who seems to fail to realize that there are equally unknown long-term risks of the viral infection. This paragraph is the closest you ever come to acknowledging that fact and you basically dismiss it with a glib "heh, I guess I could get tired."

Now. If I were 75 years old or had comorbidities. Then yes I would take a vaccine as the risk benefit calculus has changed dramatically.

It's not just about you, man.

As best as I can see, your arguments boil down to this:

- Man-made vaccine with published short- and medium-term safety data: "too risky over the long term"
- Bat-made virus with known short-term and medium-term morbidity and mortality to self and contacts: "natural things can't be bad for you over the long term, right?"

 

[WilcoWorld]

FBI investigating COVID-19 vaccine 'tampering' after Aurora says employee intentionally removed vials from fridge, ruining 500 doses

An initial investigation led Aurora officials to believe the removal was a mistake, but the now-fired individual said Wednesday it was purposeful.

www.jsonline.com

What a terrible thing to do! You've got to be seriously misinformed, or simply evil (and I'm strongly inclined to suspect misinformed) to do something like this.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

What a terrible thing to do! You've got to be seriously misinformed, or simply evil (and I'm strongly inclined to suspect misinformed) to do something like this.

That should be jail worthy

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

That should be jail worthy

I believe the intentional tampering of foods or medicines is a felony in most states.

 

[Birdstrike]

Due to have Pfizer vaccine dose #2 on Saturday, in two days.

 

[RustedFox]

- Bat-made virus with known short-term and medium-term morbidity and mortality to self and contacts: "natural things can't be bad for you over the long term, right?"

I have a family member who once said aloud to me during a family get-together that something was "all natural", so it was therefore "good and couldn't be bad for you" because "nature".

Then I suggested she used poison ivy leaves to wipe her newborn baby's ass.

I'm not allowed to come back to family get togethers at her place.

 

[wamcp]

Let's compare apples to apples here. This constant moving of the goalposts within a single post is dizzying.



Let's not pretend you have years of data on COVID-19. How do the outcomes from the vaccine compare to the outcomes from the disease at similar time-points?



What is the vaccine fatality rate for yourself, in your age group and lack of comorbidities?




If you get the vaccine ,there is published evidence that you will suffer no significant debilitating symptoms either. You will also further decrease your risk of contracting covid and will play a strong part in preventing the spread of the pandemic.




No, I don't fail to realize there are unknown long-term risks of the vaccine--I said as such in my original post. You are the one who seems to fail to realize that there are equally unknown long-term risks of the viral infection. This paragraph is the closest you ever come to acknowledging that fact and you basically dismiss it with a glib "heh, I guess I could get tired."



It's not just about you, man.

As best as I can see, your arguments boil down to this:

- Man-made vaccine with published short- and medium-term safety data: "too risky over the long term"
- Bat-made virus with known short-term and medium-term morbidity and mortality to self and contacts: "natural things can't be bad for you over the long term, right?"

Take a step back and use your doctor brain and logic rather than feelings.

Read the article below, and tell me how a couple months of new vaccine data is sufficient to quash the concerns encountered in past vaccine trials in sars, rsv, mers, dengue?

Learning from the past: development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines - Nature Reviews Microbiology

In this Perspective, Su, Du and Jiang discuss lessons from previous vaccine development efforts for other viruses and how the mechanisms of vaccine-associated disease enhancement seen in some viral infections can inform the development of a safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccine.

www.nature.com

spoiler alert. It doesn’t. Only time can prove true safety. Not what you feel is right.

I’ll say again, risk benefit of experimental vaccination makes sense for the elderly sick comorbid patient. It otherwise makes little sense for children or young healthy adults.

Also keep in mind the risk of massive public health backlash if it turns out one of these new vaccines causes harm down the road, and doctors like you had enthusiastically encouraged them indiscriminately in the first place. You will have created antivaxxers everywhere

 

[GeneralVeers]

Take a step back and use your doctor brain and logic rather than feelings.

Read the article below, and tell me how a couple months of new vaccine data is sufficient to quash the concerns encountered in past vaccine trials in sars, rsv, mers, dengue?

Learning from the past: development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines - Nature Reviews Microbiology

In this Perspective, Su, Du and Jiang discuss lessons from previous vaccine development efforts for other viruses and how the mechanisms of vaccine-associated disease enhancement seen in some viral infections can inform the development of a safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccine.

www.nature.com

spoiler alert. It doesn’t. Only time can prove true safety. Not what you feel is right.

I’ll say again, risk benefit of experimental vaccination makes sense for the elderly sick comorbid patient. It otherwise makes little sense for children or young healthy adults.

Also keep in mind the risk of massive public health backlash if it turns out one of these new vaccines causes harm down the road, and doctors like you had enthusiastically encouraged them indiscriminately in the first place. You will have created antivaxxers everywhere

Everyone getting the vaccine now is in the long-term study cohort. I think the chance that there are significant long term consequences is low, but not zero. We also don't have long-term morbidity data from the virus, so saying with certainty that the vaccine is safer long-term is foolish.

Again, I'm all for high risk people getting this vaccine. I just don't really like the FB propaganda campaign supported by healthcare workers. There's simply no reason we should rush to vaccinate children, and young, healthy adults.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Everyone getting the vaccine now is in the long-term study cohort. I think the chance that there are significant long term consequences is low, but not zero. We also don't have long-term morbidity data from the virus, so saying with certainty that the vaccine is safer long-term is foolish.

Again, I'm all for high risk people getting this vaccine. I just don't really like the FB propaganda campaign supported by healthcare workers. There's simply no reason we should rush to vaccinate children, and young, healthy adults.

Neither vaccine is approved in children, so I would hope no one is actually encouraging that.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Neither vaccine is approved in children, so I would hope no one is actually encouraging that.

I agree, however I've seen numerous facebook thread with parents refusing to send their kids back to school until all the kids are vaccinated. My worry is that in some states this will become a demand of the Teacher's Unions.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I agree, however I've seen numerous facebook thread with parents refusing to send their kids back to school until all the kids are vaccinated. My worry is that in some states this will become a demand of the Teacher's Unions.

Oh lovely.

My wife and I jumped at the chance to get this vaccine but we won't be doing this for the kids anytime soon since a) not yet studied b) kids have amazingly good outcomes with this compared to almost every other respiratory pathogen they get and c) if everyone else gets vaccinated who cares if the kids don't.

 

[NITRAS]

Oh lovely.

My wife and I jumped at the chance to get this vaccine but we won't be doing this for the kids anytime soon since a) not yet studied b) kids have amazingly good outcomes with this compared to almost every other respiratory pathogen they get and c) if everyone else gets vaccinated who cares if the kids don't.

Not to put words in GeneralVeers, but i think lots of things many teacher’s unions have demanded haven’t really aligned with common sense or science.

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

Take a step back and use your doctor brain and logic rather than feelings.

Read the article below, and tell me how a couple months of new vaccine data is sufficient to quash the concerns encountered in past vaccine trials in sars, rsv, mers, dengue?

Learning from the past: development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines - Nature Reviews Microbiology

In this Perspective, Su, Du and Jiang discuss lessons from previous vaccine development efforts for other viruses and how the mechanisms of vaccine-associated disease enhancement seen in some viral infections can inform the development of a safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccine.

www.nature.com

spoiler alert. It doesn’t. Only time can prove true safety. Not what you feel is right.

I’ll say again, risk benefit of experimental vaccination makes sense for the elderly sick comorbid patient. It otherwise makes little sense for children or young healthy adults.

Also keep in mind the risk of massive public health backlash if it turns out one of these new vaccines causes harm down the road, and doctors like you had enthusiastically encouraged them indiscriminately in the first place. You will have created antivaxxers everywhere

There's a lot of projection in your post regarding data analysis and "feelings".

I'm not sure why you think this review article is some big gotcha--it isn't. The article raises some important concerns that can and should be evaluated with clinical trials. Have you read those, or did you stop your literature search at this review from October?

You ask "tell me how a couple months of new vaccine data is sufficient to quash the concerns encountered in past vaccine trials".

Ok, to borrow your phrasing, it is time for you "use your doctor brain and logic rather than feelings". What event could accelerate the number of cases in a trial? Perhaps something that rhymes with "shmandemic"? Does that ring a bell?

Let me quote from the Pfizer study:

"Of note, the trial was designed for an infection attack rate of 0.75%, which would have necessitated a follow-up period of 6 months after the two vaccine doses to accrue 151 cases in 30,000 participants. The pandemic trajectory accelerated in many U.S. regions in the late summer and fall of 2020, resulting in rapid accrual of 196 cases after a median follow-up of 2 months. "

The data for both the Pfizer and Moderna trials show that severe infections in vaccinated individuals are exceedingly rare. This is the opposite of what one would expect from the high-ADE scenario you have fixated on.

Am I saying we should call it a day and stop safety monitoring of the vaccines? Absolutely not. Am I saying it has been proven that these vaccines have no long-term side-effects? Absolutely not.

What I am saying is that you shouting "NO ONE IS THINKING ABOUT ADEs!" and "WE KNOW NOTHING ABOUT SEVERITY OF COVID ON VACCINATED INDIVIDUALS!" is absolutely false and 100% based on your uninformed feelings.

I will restate my original points:
1. From a short- and medium-term perspective, receiving the vaccine is preferable to having COVID.
2. Both COVID and the vaccine have unknown long-term effects.
3. Data has started to come out that begins to shed light on your main concern about the vaccines (ADEs and the severity of illness on vaccinated individuals).
4. Implying that the long-term effects of COVID are likely preferable to the long-term effects of the vaccine is the "feelings"-based conclusion.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Not to put words in GeneralVeers, but i think lots of things many teacher’s unions have demanded haven’t really aligned with common sense or science.

I assumed as much. If you look back I've been pretty critical of them as well during all of this.

 

[turkeyjerky]

Anyone know if they're studying the vaccine in children?

So for those of you who are deciding not to get vaccinated. Can we at least agree that you'll forfeit your right to complain about PPE availability and any ongoing social distancing measures?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Anyone know if they're studying the vaccine in children?

So for those of you who are deciding not to get vaccinated. Can we at least agree that you'll forfeit your right to complain about PPE availability and any ongoing social distancing measures?

When Will the COVID-19 Vaccine Be Available for Kids and Teens?

This post was last updated November 4, 2021. The FDA has granted emergency use authorization to three COVID-19 vaccines, including for children as young as 5 years old. This is a huge step in our fight to end the pandemic. Connecticut Children’s Physician-in-Chief Juan Salazar, MD, MPH, answers...

www.connecticutchildrens.org