Who's buying back into the stock market, Bitcoin, etc?

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You missed that wave! Buy when the stocks are down not up.
 
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I converted some bonds to stocks on the way down, but I'm mainly buy and hold long-term. I'm not smart enough to beat the market!
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i bought 25K of vdigx with some extra cash when the market was low. i was 60/40 bonds/stocks before the virus and have wanted to increase my dividend paying equities for a few years now. i thought equities were going to go lower which is why i did not buy more. i am retired.
 
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i bought a bunch back 2 weeks ago. Got into blue chips during their sale. FB, MSFT, big on BA.
 
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Just ignoring the craziness and dollar-cost-averaging here. Timing the market is stupid.
 
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Bought Boeing as well, dividends are 14% .
Up Alot just on this stock.
 
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drusso said:
Is this the time to double down and catch the wave?
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You didn't miss anything. This is currently a "sucker's rally" which is often seen in bear markets. After an initial fall, there is usually a "dead cat bounce" which retraces about 50% of the initial losses. After that, there is a progressive fall, with intervening "bear traps" that have caught many people in the past.

We have support at 18,000, 14,000, 12,000, and 8,000 for the Dow. With earnings in the dumpster and a 25% fall in GDP, this bear market is far from over. It is peculiar, however, in that many investors are younger and have never experienced a true bear market. They are conditioned to "buy the dips" (which always works in a bull market).

When to get back in? Hitting a new low where the market rises,then falls again and retests the lows. Additionally, we have not had the capitulation of the bulls yet. In fact, there are people who really, really think that the stock market will achieve new highs yet this year! They simply cannot wrap their heads around the concept of a bear market and that stocks don't always make money. Also, look at upticks on higher volumes after testing support levels and the value of the dollar relative to other currencies.
 
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Ferrismonk said:
Just ignoring the craziness and dollar-cost-averaging here. Timing the market is stupid.
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I disagree. One should keep funds that they have invested in the market and not try to "time". No one can really predict where the market is going and it has a habit of making very smart people look like fools. However, only ADD NEW MONEY when the Schiller P/E ratio is below normal or the P/E of the market is very, very high (a reflection of very low earnings). The Schiller P/E ratio is a good measure of expected returns and one should add money when values are good. Pulling existing money in and out of the market is a fool's errand, as you will miss the rises in the market.

Be patient- you will have several more opportunities to buy equities on the way down. Also, don't think that you are a better stock picker than the pros and just due low expense ratio index funds like Vanguard. Keep a smaller amount of "play money" to pick individual stocks if that is entertaining to you, but have the lion's share in index funds. Just look at the Dow from the 1920s and see how many companies are still there. With indexing, the "bad" companies are weeded out for you, such that you are not left with thousands of shares of "American Cotton", which can become worthless.
 
hawkeye2009 said:
I disagree. One should keep funds that they have invested in the market and not try to "time". No one can really predict where the market is going and it has a habit of making very smart people look like fools. However, only ADD NEW MONEY when the Schiller P/E ratio is below normal or the P/E of the market is very, very high (a reflection of very low earnings). The Schiller P/E ratio is a good measure of expected returns and one should add money when values are good. Pulling existing money in and out of the market is a fool's errand, as you will miss the rises in the market.

Be patient- you will have several more opportunities to buy equities on the way down. Also, don't think that you are a better stock picker than the pros and just due low expense ratio index funds like Vanguard. Keep a smaller amount of "play money" to pick individual stocks if that is entertaining to you, but have the lion's share in index funds. Just look at the Dow from the 1920s and see how many companies are still there. With indexing, the "bad" companies are weeded out for you, such that you are not left with thousands of shares of "American Cotton", which can become worthless.
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Here's what I got out of this:
1. I agree with you, invest in low-cost index funds and don't time the market.
2. When you do decide to time the market, pretend you're a value investor using only the P/E ratio as your guide.
3. It's okay to gamble with a part of your money for entertainment
 
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drusso said:
Is this the time to double down and catch the wave?
Click to expand...

buy high sell low? it's a bear market rally, aka dead cat bounce, markets don't have to make sense but I'm struggling with this - 6mil unemployment claims, markets go +5% in a day... ok then..
that being said, buying stocks of unregulated monopolies (amazon, google, apple) is never a bad idea even in this environment
 
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Gauss said:
buy high sell low? it's a bear market rally, aka dead cat bounce, markets don't have to make sense but I'm struggling with this - 6mil unemployment claims, markets go +5% in a day... ok then..
that being said, buying stocks of unregulated monopolies (amazon, google, apple) is never a bad idea even in this environment
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We've never seen a time where the Federal Reserve is so empowered and activist. It will make NOT investing VERY expensive. People who were burned by this after 2008 will be much more willing to bow down and kiss the ring. As long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency and there's low inflation, I don't see this changing.

So, basically I think it's a good overall time to invest, even though there will be ups and downs.
 
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Put a bunch of money in several weeks ago and purchased some shares in large cap companies at attractive prices. I’m taking long positions and don’t plan to time the market. The markets are not making much sense at this time. I’m not sure we have seen the true bottom yet, so I have some more money set aside waiting for the right time.
 
My investor is doing a ton of call options for me (whatever that is). Said he turned 45k into 90K today. He said the the opportunities for these calls and puts is amazing right now. I really have no idea what he's doing with my money :smack:
 
He’s basically buying options contracts that will give him the option to buy or sell stocks at a set price by a certain date. Call option is buying and put option is selling. Buying call options is basically a way for your financial advisor to make you money if he strongly believes the market will continue to rally.
 
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clubdeac said:
My investor is doing a ton of call options for me (whatever that is). Said he turned 45k into 90K today. He said the the opportunities for these calls and puts is amazing right now. I really have no idea what he's doing with my money :smack:
Click to expand...
Your advisor should not have this much latitude
 
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clubdeac said:
Why not?
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"My investor is doing a ton of call options for me (whatever that is). Said he turned 45k into 90K today. He said the the opportunities for these calls and puts is amazing right now. I really have no idea what he's doing with my money "

It is your money you should have an idea , I hope your arrangement is a flat fee
 
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Also, call options are risky. If the market does not perform as expected, you can lose a LOT of money.

It's a day-trading trick (more buy/sell = more broker commissions btw) that can work well (or terribly) in a volatile market. Not really good for long-term investing.

www.fidelity.com

Buying call options | Fidelity

Read on to learn the basics of buying call options and to see if buying calls may be an appropriate strategy for you.
www.fidelity.com
 
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Who is going “all in” on funding their defined benefit plan/cash balance plan (pension) right now , based on the market ?
 
I've been playing online poker with bitcoin. I won some money, I transferred it back to bitcoin and now I bought some gold. I can't wait to stare at it and use it as an extremely light paperweight . Yep I am bored
 
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10KHertz said:
Who is going “all in” on funding their defined benefit plan/cash balance plan (pension) right now , based on the market ?
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Can't really go all in on 2020 Defined Benefit/cash plan, until you see what contribution limits are at the end of the year
 
lonelobo said:
Can't really go all in on 2020 Defined Benefit/cash plan, until you see what contribution limits are at the end of the year
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I guess I meant front loading it with the market down. You typically know from years past what the range of funding will be .
 
10KHertz said:
I guess I meant front loading it with the market down. You typically know from years past what the range of funding will be .
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Better talk to your 3rd party administrator
 
Ferrismonk said:
Also, call options are risky. If the market does not perform as expected, you can lose a LOT of money.

It's a day-trading trick (more buy/sell = more broker commissions btw) that can work well (or terribly) in a volatile market. Not really good for long-term investing.

www.fidelity.com

Buying call options | Fidelity

Read on to learn the basics of buying call options and to see if buying calls may be an appropriate strategy for you.
www.fidelity.com
Click to expand...
This is beneficial thank you
 
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lonelobo said:
"My investor is doing a ton of call options for me (whatever that is). Said he turned 45k into 90K today. He said the the opportunities for these calls and puts is amazing right now. I really have no idea what he's doing with my money "

It is your money you should have an idea , I hope your arrangement is a flat fee
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That was a bit facetious, although I admit I don't know as much as I should about these options
 
Let's say that COVID-19 is effectively contained by July 1st through testing and meticulous contact tracing and isolation. We're still gonna be on edge when it comes to crowds and travel.

How long do you anticipate before full employment in the country?

It's going to be a fertile field for business in terms of taxes, regulation, and borrowing. Just a question of making up the demand lost to travel, hospitality, etc.

OTOH, after the thin protections offered by the federal govt expire, we could see massive mortgage defaults and a cascade of falling home prices and collapse of the stock market...
 
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yesterday's weekly jobless claims hit 5.245 million, raising monthly loss to 22 million... Dow today +3%... what in the actual $#@* ???
 
Gauss said:
yesterday's weekly jobless claims hit 5.245 million, raising monthly loss to 22 million... Dow today +3%... what in the actual $#@* ???
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Projected unemployment for June is 15% - off the chart. Not good at all.

unemps.JPG


United States Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 3.90 percent in February from 3.70 percent in January of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction...
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
drusso said:
I know a lot of people with puts and shorts who are worried.
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The market's being propped up by the Fed and shorts no doubt, but these rallies over the past few weeks are ludicrous
 
The stock market *should* look long term. It is about 15% off its high 2 months ago. Is the profitability of entire stock market for the next 10-20 years 15% less than it was 2 months ago? I really have no idea. I do know that historically the odds of a stock market gain over a loss are about 2:1. Unless you are really good are really lucky, you are going to lose out in the long-term.
 
I think people are really betting the govt and Fed will outdo themselves this time. They might underwrite unemployment insurance, mortgage default insurance, and all manner of other backstop methods. They might provide a universal income for a year.
 
No way the market should be 24000 right now.
 
futures tanking this AM....oil getting killed
 
yes. they are working on it.

of course, I'm guessing a significant proportion will still go to chain restaurants and those with >500 employees like the initial stimulus...
 
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Holy crap.

www.nbcnews.com

U.S. crude oil futures for May plummet to minus $37 — lowest price in history

With demand at near-paralysis, oil and fuel tanks around the world are close to brimming.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

Edit:
Below $0/barrel
www.cnn.com

Global stocks are mixed as US oil futures crash below $0 a barrel

US oil prices crashed Monday to a record low as the market continues to be roiled by an epic collapse in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Global stocks are mixed as investors brace for more companies to reveal how much the crisis is costing them.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
For investors who don't need money to survive, the outlook for 5+ years looks good to me. Unprecedented political support for massive federal govt and federal reserve intervention and unbelievably low oil prices in the setting of a (hopefully) triumph for humanity vs outbreak.

It's a growth scenario imo for the medium to long term.
 
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Agree with above. Definitely seems like a good opportunity if your investment strategy is holding long positions for many years. If you’re planning to day trade now good luck.
 
I'm still dumping over 1/2 my monthly paycheck into the stock market every month. I hope you're right hyperalgesia!
 
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clubdeac said:
I'm still dumping over 1/2 my monthly paycheck into the stock market every month. I hope you're right hyperalgesia!
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You must be single with no kids right?
 
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ragnathor said:
At this point an understatement. $2.50 a barrel right now. Might we see $0 /barrel?
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u called it......it went negative for awhile. Cant wait to fill up the new boat and social distance with some fish.
 
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