I think that GI has a very bright future even with the "threat" of virtual colonoscopies taking away many of their screening visits. The reason for this is because I think that a lot more people will be getting screened which will mean that a lot more people will have polyps found on CT scan (I've heard that some ~25% have a polyp by age ~60), and these people will ultimately still need to see a GI doc. I suspect that if the number is close to 25%, insurance co won't ever reimburse for the CT scan because they don't want to have to pay for the CT scan + colonoscopy when they could just pay for the colonoscopy. Some of their new technologies will keep them in demand in terms of ER for thinks emergent management of GI bleeders and management of stones, and an increasing number of patients being dx with IBS keeps their clinics busy as well. They definitely are not training enough GI docs to keep up with the increasing demand IMO, but it's difficult to predict the future. Just 10 yrs ago, everyone thought that GI docs were in surplus and no one wanted to go into GI. Now, it seems like there are a ton of people interested in GI, making it very competetive (probably as, if not more competetive then cards IMO because there are so fewer number of spots and programs).