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Hang in there Indy. I'm still pulling for you. Nonlocality Cali is going well and we just went to the water park today and I got burnt like crazy.
INDY IS IN!!! #49 has been accepted!
ha ha...I knowFirst year classes are currently populated at 115 students.
Sorry sunny1, it might be a long-shot for you (though not impossible).
nonlocality
Invitro, my friend. I know you will have great success this year Just follow through on the plan!I'm still rooting for you Sunny.
ha ha, no. it's 60. thanks thoughAwww I want sunny in our class is her number soon?
(I'm 52 on the waitlist), so I'll call Tucson and let them know
about 44% (51/115) of the seats are currently filled off of the waitlist.
If madevans was #65 and he was accepted to two different schools than the difference between 51 and 60 is just opinion - nothing quantitative.
Good luck on your next application cycle sunny1.
The departure of Dr. Leadem likely represents a serious philosophical change in the qualities of those people to be chosen by the tucson med school for next year.
So people on this year's waitlist are likely not representative of next year's picks.
In a prior post I suggested that the tucson school was following an arizona student optimization approach - an approach that I whole heartily agreed with.
The obvious intention of this change is to raise the perceived quality of those attending by reaching outside the state for students to fill up to 25% of the seats.
Selecting up to 25% of students from out of state (OOS) will make this one of the most attractive schools for OOS students to apply to. Something that OOS look hard at in building a list of schools for their applications. Expect the total number of applications next year to at least double.
To realize that intention the expectation is that the quantitative measurements of those 25% chosen would be substantially higher than those previously accepted. Thus I believe this will have the greatest effect upon the competitiveness of those on the waitlist, since about 35% (51 * 80% yield rate so say 40/115) of the seats are currently filled off of the waitlist.
This new OOS approach will also have the effect of reducing the number of students that will be pulled off of the waitlist. The yield rate of primary offers will likely go up substantially.
I also expect the current humane approach to waitlister's will go opaque next year. What happens if two OOS students need to be replaced by waitlisters, do you just go down the wailtist and pull the first two off? Likely not. There will probably be an OOS waitlist and an in-state waitlist, so to prevent hurt feelings that whole process would need to be hidden.
nonlocality
Unfortunately someone in a position of authority has deemed that you, as arizona residents, are not as qualified as out of state students (OOS). Consequently, for the first time, up to 25% of this year's med school seats will be taken away from you.
I respect your point of view rkaz.
But does the mere number of applicants necessarily imply that some/all are poor candidates to select from?
I am sure that you think of yourself as a worthy UofA COM med school candidate/student, don't you? I would not doubt that you are.
Does a person pulled late off of the waitlist who attends UofA COM and then does not achieve top board scores, will they likely be a poor medical doctor practicing in this state? How can that judgment be made a priori, before they complete their med school education? Or are these people destined by karma to low board scores by virtue of someone deeming them to be ONLY late waitlist quality? Did wake forest and the phx school make a mistake in offering madevans a seat while tucson had him at #64? Do the tucson adcoms make superior judgments? Are low mcat/gpa scores so perfect a predictor of usmle scores that we can know a priori that these folks will do poorly - where is that science?
But this is about the taxpayers of arizona heavily subsidizing the med school education of people who will very likely not practice in this state. And not pay for those who likely will, thus depriving the state of meeting its ever-growing need for medical doctors.
Growing the number of doctors in this state is a critical issue that is being backed by state funds to support the growth of the phx and tucson sites. How are training doctors from other states, who leave and go back to practice in their home states help to mitigate our critical shortage?
Let's see what this really means by making some reasonable assumptions, that:
1. 25% of this year's tucson seats went to out of state (OOS) students
2. That there were two different waitlists one for OOS and one for in state. The OOS list supported keeping the 25% OOS number
3. Assume my normal 65% yield off of direct in state offers and 80% off of in state waitlist offers
Question, what would be the effect upon the number of tucson waitlisters pulled off of this years list?
So roughly 28 of 115 tucson seats will go to OOS students leaving 87 in state seats.
First off the 28 in state people who just lost their direct offers to OSS students are now pushed on to the waitlist ahead of those presently assigned. So the previous #1 waitlister is now #29.
Using my assumption of a 65% direct yield means that about 57 actually go on to attend leaving 30 seats to be filled by in state waitlisters. With an 80% yield on waitlist offers then about 38 (30/0.8) were made.
The net effect is that from this year's waitlist only 10 were offered (28 applicants from this year's primary offers were pushed ahead of this year's waitlist).
Are we to believe that numbers 11-51 on this year's waitlist are not worthy med school students? Sorry but you just lost your seat to an OOS student, how does that feel? What do those students say about that?
But it gets worse. I mentioned that the yield numbers would go up due to a second-order effect. That is there will be a much more reduced dynamic of people moving off of tucson to go to phx and the converse. Since the availability of both those seats is lessened by OOS students. So redo those numbers with slightly different yield rates of 70% direct and 85% waitlist (there is a third-order effect that will likely drive these yields even higher).
SHOCKINGLY you get only 3 people taken off of this year's tucson waitlist. That means that the primary offers from this year barely made it in.
I am sorry - is someone in authority willing to standup and tell me that ONLY 118 students who applied this year are worthy of getting into UofA COM tucson? Is someone willing to tell me, with a straight face, that they can not take students from the top 10% of our universities and train them up to do VERY well on their usmle scores? That is the most ludicrous thing I have ever heard - that is why we need some adult supervision.
nonlocality
Or are these people destined by karma to low board scores by virtue of someone deeming them to be ONLY late waitlist quality? Did wake forest and the phx school make a mistake in offering madevans a seat while tucson had him at #64? Do the tucson adcoms make superior judgments? Are low mcat/gpa scores so perfect a predictor of usmle scores that we can know a priori that these folks will do poorly?
The u of a can no longer depend on the federal government to value higher education as paramount as it once did. In the face of this recession, money has been pumped away from the school and into other failing markets. It seems like a money thing to me... at least primarily.
Will OOS students' extra tuition allow the phx campus to expand as early as we'd like it to (which would definitely increase the number of practicing physicians here in az)? Probably not. But in the mean time it may allow us to hang on to a few of the great faculty we have while we sit here and hope that this recession will pass. I don't know... maybe I'm wrong.
But I do agree with you that if it was to increase applicant quality then that was a huge disservice to the problem of physician shortage here in az. But perhaps they will select primarily select students from states with more dire shortages of physicians than ours. Who knows.
And to answer your quoted question, tucson made the biggest mistake of their entire applicant cycle history. I am so smrt it's a travistee that they didn't except me off there weight list.
The process is not perfect nonlocality. You're trying to apply quantitative analysis to a process that is mostly qualitative, a little quantitative, and the rest a total crap shoot.
By the way... on orientation day Tara called me out during her first speech when she was talking about this past cycle. "We've really enjoyed watching the conversation on SDN, especially the most frequent poster madevans who is sitting right there. Go on, stand up and introduce yourself Matt." Hahahaha. How embarrassing.
I'm trying to take a different psychological approach this season and not think about me being one of a certain number of applicants, so I don't really care as long as I can still get an interview.
So I've kinda removed myself from this forum for a few months as I figured the only thing more depressing than getting straight up rejected for the second straight year would be watching the waitlisters slow-roast over their status. Today I finally opened my AMCAS for 2010 (I had been waiting for my EMT certification) so I decided to come back to SDN. I'm seeing some stuff about OOS applicants being considered next year. I'm trying to take a different psychological approach this season and not think about me being one of a certain number of applicants, so I don't really care as long as I can still get an interview. Do we know if they are still gonna give us in-staters the automatic interview? If nobody knows I can ask tomorrow at my research meeting, since my RD has an office next to someone on the adcom.
Out of curiosity, what WL numbers did we actually get to? I'm too lazy to go back and figure it out. Congrats to all those who made it. Madevans, your story about Tara calling you out was great, although I must admit I am not at all suprised that they read this.
Im pretty sure the auto-interviews are still going on. (Within 24 and 36 mcat apparently)
Final waitlist number for Fall 2009 matriculation was #55. So around ten behind 2008... must be due to rolling admissions.