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Hey everyone, first time posting here and I thought I would go ahead a make a thread for those writing on this test date.
115 days out!
115 days out!
The Official January 10, 2015 MCAT Thread
- Thread starter Jhakaasmaan
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False. MCAT has a shelf life of 3 years from your date of matriculation. If you plan on matriculating in 2017 or before, you're good. Any later will require a retake, not to mention most schools will be taking preference to the 2015 test.
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He said to do it so it doesn't expire, not that it does not expire.
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just realized I read that wrong. 
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Hey guys!! So, following @TonyTonyChopper ’s lead, I’ve compiled MCAT data for our date, January 10th, and January 8th. I analyzed them individually and combined. I then also combined this with TonyTonyChopper’s data, to create one graph with all the collected data. I started tracking January 10th’s test takers on page 31, and included anyone who said at least once that they were taking the test on January 10th. I calculated response rates for the 10th using these numbers. I did not calculate response rates for January 8th (I didn’t follow this thread, nor was the thread was very active until scores were posted). I closely mimicked TonyTonyChopper’s format for continuity and comparison purposes, except that I included AAMC 10&11 averages for the January test dates (which he did not have). Take everything below with a grain of salt; these are tiny sample sizes and I’m no mathematician or social scientist. One person private messaged me, so the data is not entirely reconstructable, but that individual is listed in the spreadsheet as “Anonymous” and I am more than happy to send the file over to anyone who would like to reproduce/check this data.
First, simple averages:
January 8th
Total People: 37
AAMC Average: 30.55, st. dev 3.52 (33 responses)
AAMC 10&11 Average: 32.58, st. dev 3.55 (21 responses)
Predicted: 30, st. dev 3.13 (30 responses)
Actual: 30.38, st. dev 3.76 (37 responses)
January 10th
Total people: 85
AAMC Average: 32.3, st. dev 3.68 (50 responses, 59% response rate)
10&11 Average: 33.05, st. dev 4.01 (40 responses, 47% response rate)
Predicted: 30.41, st. dev 3.66 (46 responses, 54% response rate)
Actual: 31.18 st. dev 4.34 (50 responses, 59% response rate)
I noted three individuals who were active members but then did not post scores after they were released on January 10th. This might slightly bring down the average.
Both Dates:
AAMC Average: 32.33 , st. dev 3.6 (83 responses)
10&11 Average: 32.72, st. dev 3.85 (61 responses)
Predicted: 30.23, st. dev 3.45 (76 responses)
Actual: 31.43, st. dev 4.09 (87 responses)
SDN’ers who took the test on 1/10 fared slightly better than those on 1/8 (an average of .8 points better). This is likely due to our tiny sample sizes.
Edited for clarification: These tests are very carefully scaled. I don't think the takeaway here is that the January 8th test was harder. I pointed out the difference because the data shows a difference, but I truly think that this speaks more to the nature of the SDN'ers on the 10th rather than the test itself. As determined below, people who use SDN are more likely to do above average. As the thread on the 10th was much more active, I might assume that the 10th's average is higher simply because the people who posted their scores are the type more inclined to get higher scores.
Secondly, like TonyTonyChopper, I also compared AAMC averages with actual scores from people who gave both scores. I'm including the individual data here for anyone who wants to see, but the combined data is more telling:
January 8th:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.52, st. dev 3.19 (33 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.55, st. dev 1.94
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.16, st. dev 3.33 (19 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or - 2.74, st. dev 2.14
January 10th:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.16, st. dev 2.61 (41 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.08, st. dev 1.56
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.00, st. dev 2.72 (35 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or -2.11, st. dev 1.95
January Combined:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.32, st. dev 2.87 (74 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.29, st. dev 1.74
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.09, st. dev 2.87 (56 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or - 2.32, st. dev 2.00
So according to TonyTonyChopper’s interpretation, on average, people pretty much score their exact AAMC average. If anything, you will score about 0.3 lower than your AAMC average. This isn’t much. If you look at the absolute difference, though, it suggests otherwise. On average, people tend to score about +/- 2.29 from their average. However, SDN lore suggests that people tend to score +/- 2 from their AAMC average. Not far off!
People often say that 10&11 are a better indicator of actual scores. This data begs to differ; we see that people actually score about a point (1.09) lower than their 10&11 average. Thus, your AAMC total average seems to be a better indicator than your average for 10&11.
TonyTonyChopper found that people, on average, score +0.46 (55 people) better than their average, we found that people score about -0.32 (76 people) points worse. Considering the extremely tiny sample sizes, the overall conclusion is that you are extremely likely to score your average, though, on average, people will score +/- 2 in either direction (TonyTonyChoper’s data suggested +/-1.88, ours suggested +/- 2.29).
Thirdly, I also combined TonyTonyChoppers combined data with our combined data, for more complete stats:
August 7th, 2014 (8am&2pm) and January 8th and 10th, 2015
AAMC Average: 32.15, st. dev 3.63 (144 responses)
Predicted Score: 30.14, st. dev 3.66 (136 responses)
Actual Score: 31.70, st. dev 4.29 (154 responses)
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: +.016, st. dev 2.68 (129 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: 2.11, st. dev 1.63
SDN’ers, as TonyTonyChopper previously concluded, are still in fact above average. Also, overall, we see that actual scores will be less than .02 away from AAMC averages. This is tiny!!
In addition to what TonyTonyChopper calculated, I played around with predicted scores a bit, to see how indicative they are of actual scores. It’s clear from above that the actual score, on average, is about 1.5 points higher than predicted. But I noticed that rather than several people underestimating their score by a point and a half, some people greatly overestimated and others greatly underestimated. So I decided to plot the difference between actual and predicted scores against the actual score received. I was surprised to find somewhat of a correlation. Those who scored lower than a 26.5 tended to overestimate their scores. Those who scored above about a 26.5 tended to underestimate. Take this with a grain of salt though; very few people scored at either end of the spectrum, and a much smaller cohort of people reported both predictions and scores. For that reason, I am including the chart as well— that way you can see how minuscule the sample size is.
Great job everyone! I am attaching TonyTonyChopper's original post. None of this would have happened without his pioneering efforts and support. I hope this was informative!! Let me know if anything is unclear
First, simple averages:
January 8th
Total People: 37
AAMC Average: 30.55, st. dev 3.52 (33 responses)
AAMC 10&11 Average: 32.58, st. dev 3.55 (21 responses)
Predicted: 30, st. dev 3.13 (30 responses)
Actual: 30.38, st. dev 3.76 (37 responses)
January 10th
Total people: 85
AAMC Average: 32.3, st. dev 3.68 (50 responses, 59% response rate)
10&11 Average: 33.05, st. dev 4.01 (40 responses, 47% response rate)
Predicted: 30.41, st. dev 3.66 (46 responses, 54% response rate)
Actual: 31.18 st. dev 4.34 (50 responses, 59% response rate)
I noted three individuals who were active members but then did not post scores after they were released on January 10th. This might slightly bring down the average.
Both Dates:
AAMC Average: 32.33 , st. dev 3.6 (83 responses)
10&11 Average: 32.72, st. dev 3.85 (61 responses)
Predicted: 30.23, st. dev 3.45 (76 responses)
Actual: 31.43, st. dev 4.09 (87 responses)
SDN’ers who took the test on 1/10 fared slightly better than those on 1/8 (an average of .8 points better). This is likely due to our tiny sample sizes.
Edited for clarification: These tests are very carefully scaled. I don't think the takeaway here is that the January 8th test was harder. I pointed out the difference because the data shows a difference, but I truly think that this speaks more to the nature of the SDN'ers on the 10th rather than the test itself. As determined below, people who use SDN are more likely to do above average. As the thread on the 10th was much more active, I might assume that the 10th's average is higher simply because the people who posted their scores are the type more inclined to get higher scores.
Secondly, like TonyTonyChopper, I also compared AAMC averages with actual scores from people who gave both scores. I'm including the individual data here for anyone who wants to see, but the combined data is more telling:
January 8th:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.52, st. dev 3.19 (33 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.55, st. dev 1.94
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.16, st. dev 3.33 (19 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or - 2.74, st. dev 2.14
January 10th:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.16, st. dev 2.61 (41 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.08, st. dev 1.56
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.00, st. dev 2.72 (35 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or -2.11, st. dev 1.95
January Combined:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.32, st. dev 2.87 (74 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.29, st. dev 1.74
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.09, st. dev 2.87 (56 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or - 2.32, st. dev 2.00
So according to TonyTonyChopper’s interpretation, on average, people pretty much score their exact AAMC average. If anything, you will score about 0.3 lower than your AAMC average. This isn’t much. If you look at the absolute difference, though, it suggests otherwise. On average, people tend to score about +/- 2.29 from their average. However, SDN lore suggests that people tend to score +/- 2 from their AAMC average. Not far off!
People often say that 10&11 are a better indicator of actual scores. This data begs to differ; we see that people actually score about a point (1.09) lower than their 10&11 average. Thus, your AAMC total average seems to be a better indicator than your average for 10&11.
TonyTonyChopper found that people, on average, score +0.46 (55 people) better than their average, we found that people score about -0.32 (76 people) points worse. Considering the extremely tiny sample sizes, the overall conclusion is that you are extremely likely to score your average, though, on average, people will score +/- 2 in either direction (TonyTonyChoper’s data suggested +/-1.88, ours suggested +/- 2.29).
Thirdly, I also combined TonyTonyChoppers combined data with our combined data, for more complete stats:
August 7th, 2014 (8am&2pm) and January 8th and 10th, 2015
AAMC Average: 32.15, st. dev 3.63 (144 responses)
Predicted Score: 30.14, st. dev 3.66 (136 responses)
Actual Score: 31.70, st. dev 4.29 (154 responses)
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: +.016, st. dev 2.68 (129 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: 2.11, st. dev 1.63
SDN’ers, as TonyTonyChopper previously concluded, are still in fact above average. Also, overall, we see that actual scores will be less than .02 away from AAMC averages. This is tiny!!
In addition to what TonyTonyChopper calculated, I played around with predicted scores a bit, to see how indicative they are of actual scores. It’s clear from above that the actual score, on average, is about 1.5 points higher than predicted. But I noticed that rather than several people underestimating their score by a point and a half, some people greatly overestimated and others greatly underestimated. So I decided to plot the difference between actual and predicted scores against the actual score received. I was surprised to find somewhat of a correlation. Those who scored lower than a 26.5 tended to overestimate their scores. Those who scored above about a 26.5 tended to underestimate. Take this with a grain of salt though; very few people scored at either end of the spectrum, and a much smaller cohort of people reported both predictions and scores. For that reason, I am including the chart as well— that way you can see how minuscule the sample size is.
Great job everyone! I am attaching TonyTonyChopper's original post. None of this would have happened without his pioneering efforts and support. I hope this was informative!! Let me know if anything is unclear
Okay with this thread dying down, I wanted to end with the final statistics. This is for future test takers of the old mcat and is intended to be informational. Please take this with a grain of salt though, as this is an observational study (possibly badly done too since I'm not a social scientist and not a person who usually does observational studies). This is not a true experiment. Nothing was manipulated and data was collected only from posters of this thread. Nobody privately messaged me, so all the data is right here for others to reproduce.
Quoted below are posts that talked about the statistics. Then after that are the final outcomes.
View attachment 185431
Grey background bars: Expected score distribution for a population of 107 people. Based on AAMC published data of all 2013 test takers.
Blue bars: Predicted Scores
Red bars: AAMC average scores (rounded, e.g. 29.5 = 30, 35.3 = 35)
Gold bars: Actual exam scores from August 7th, 2014 - 8am and 2pm exam times
8am:
Total People: 30
AAMC Average 33.0, st. dev 3.2 (21 responses, 70% response rate)
Predicted 31.3 st. dev 3.4 (20 responses, 67% response rate)
Actual 32.5 st. dev 3.9 (20 responses, 67% response rate)
2pm:
Total people: 77
AAMC Average 31.3, st. dev 3.8 (40 responses, 52% response rate)
Predicted 29.4 st. dev 4.0 (40 responses, 52% response rate)
Actual 31.9 st. dev 4.8 (47 responses, 61% response rate)
Both Times:
Total people: 107
AAMC Average 31.9 , st. dev 3.7 (61 responses, 57% response rate)
Predicted 30.0, st. dev 3.9 (60 responses, 56% response rate)
Actual 32.1, st. dev 4.5 (67 responses, 63% response rate)
I kept track of people who joined the conversation after scores were released and old posters who have been a part of this thread before scores were released. I found no significant difference between the groups. So, people who appear out of nowhere on this thread once scores are released do not necessarily have insane scores (35+). There is a fair share of new posters who have lower scores too to balance out. We just tend to remember those 41s and 42s who come out of nowhere and not the 25s or 26s who add their posts into the thread.
Also important, I noted nine individuals who either have been a part of this thread pretty diligently and all of a sudden disappeared once scores were posted or individuals who have noted in their posts that they scored pretty low and understandably don't feel comfortable posting their scores. So the actual score average might be a little lower, and this might come into play for the analysis of the next paragraph. If all those people scored 10 points below their average, then yeah, we might have a problem. But I've seen quite a few people (not necessarily in this thread) scoring averages of 25s, expect a 30+, but actually got a 25. Thankfully those people posted their scores and made me realize those individuals exist too. So keep in mind, a person might not say their score because THEY feel it's below their expectation, even if it might be a good score or their score is to be expected. Therefore, I believe the actual averages will not significantly change due to the nine individuals. Some might have relatively good scores (30+), but were below their expectations
I compared AAMC averages with Actual scores from people who gave BOTH scores, not just one or the other. Overall there was no difference. 2pm's actual score was 0.7 points above their AAMC average and 8am was exactly the same. So no difference. It can be inferred that you will score your AAMC average. Trust your average! In fact, 14 people out of 55 people (25%) who gave me both scores scored the EXACT same AAMC average (after rounding the aamc average). That's quite a significant number of people. Fortunately, I scored 3 points above my average
Now in contrast, the mean difference between the AAMC average (not rounded) and Actual score was +0.47 (st. dev 2.34). The mean absolute difference was 1.88 (st. dev 1.45). So if I am interpreting this right, even though on average people pretty much score their exact AAMC average (as suggested by the previous paragraph), if you look at the absolute difference, it suggests otherwise. People tend to score about +/- 1.88 from their average. However, we predicted that people tend to score +/- 2 from their AAMC average, which isn't bad, and the data supports that!
In one sentence: Most likely, people will score their AAMC average, BUT on average, people will score +/- 1.88 from their AAMC average. Hope that makes sense.
Think of a bell curve centered around your average. The peak of the curve is your mode, which is your average. You are most likely to score your mode/average and you are most likely to stay within 2 points of your average. However, don't fret if you score +/- 3 or 4. Keep in mind it is a possibility, but a little less likely (the standard deviation of the absolute difference is 1.45, 1.88+1.45 = +/- 3.33)
Also note 8am was not necessarily easier than 2pm. Look at the AAMC averages from both times and compare to their respective actual scores. They are about the same. More people might have done slightly worse in 2pm than 8am, but those people were slightly worse exam takers to begin with.
Furthermore, we had about a 60% response rate of posters who posted at least one message saying they took this exam. This is good news! We were expecting like around 30% and not even close to 60% at best.
Finally, SDN exam takers are indeed above average. We have a mean, median, and mode of 32! Great Job!!! Proud of y'all, even those who might not have gotten what they wished for
Hope this is very informative! Peace out. Back to being a lurker, that is if I am ever on here again.
Last edited:
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@mslm5401
Wow thanks for typing all of that out and compiling all of the data!
It is pretty cool to see your work pretty much supports "SDN lore" and the AAMC average theory. Even though this won't directly apply to those taking the MCAT after us, I would imagine the correlation will be similar. This is good reinforcement for people to see. Be confident in your averages!
I was really interested in the data you put together with predictions vs. actual at each score level. It definitely supports how I felt after the test. I think it has something to do with the scaled nature of the test and how at 36+ just a few questions can change your actual score by quite a bit.
Thanks again for taking the time to do this and to @TonyTonyChopper for the excellent framework he provided.
It's been fun!
-cawolf
Wow thanks for typing all of that out and compiling all of the data!
It is pretty cool to see your work pretty much supports "SDN lore" and the AAMC average theory. Even though this won't directly apply to those taking the MCAT after us, I would imagine the correlation will be similar. This is good reinforcement for people to see. Be confident in your averages!
I was really interested in the data you put together with predictions vs. actual at each score level. It definitely supports how I felt after the test. I think it has something to do with the scaled nature of the test and how at 36+ just a few questions can change your actual score by quite a bit.
Thanks again for taking the time to do this and to @TonyTonyChopper for the excellent framework he provided.
It's been fun!
-cawolf
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You people are the best.
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@Cawolf It's my pleasure. And yeah, it's impressive how close the AAMC averages are to the scores, on average. I'm really happy you appreciated the score prediction bit. I wasn't sure if it was worth including, but I found it super interesting so stuck it in there. It goes along with how you and @Yorick felt! And yeah, it's crazy how the difference between a 13 and a 15 can be two questions... so 6 questions could hypothetically bring you from a 39 to a 45. Whereas in the mid-lower ranges, 6 questions is still the same score for a single section. It makes it really hard to predict.
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Mslm, great job! Interesting to see of course.
If you already have the data organized, do you think you'd consider plotting difference of actual vs AAMC average by score or score range? Basically what you did with the predicted score but by score.
If you already have the data organized, do you think you'd consider plotting difference of actual vs AAMC average by score or score range? Basically what you did with the predicted score but by score.
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@magictouch ooooh I love that idea!! Working on it now
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You're a data hero! Definitely interested in seeing it. And congratulations to you and @Cawolf for killing this beast!@magictouch ooooh I love that idea!! Working on it now
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double post@magictouch ooooh I love that idea!! Working on it now
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So, similar correlation, but not as drastic. People on the high end tended to do better than their average. No data for low end, people in the middle tended to score around their average. I just repurposed the predicted score data (I would have had to do it manually again and I'm a bit tired right now), so this isn't everyone. Maybe I'll go back later to get a more complete chart.
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Last request if you're still interested -- switch the X axis to the AAMC average. I'm interested if that reveals anything different.
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Haha that's interesting!! You have the best ideas. I'd just also have to input the ranges manually. I'll do it tomorrow along with the more complete version of what I just posted. Promise
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@magictouch Figured it out in excel. There seems to be a slight correlation against actual scores, but not against AAMC averages. It's interesting.
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So if we pretended our data set was large and unbiased (lol) we could hypthesize that...
1) students who earn very high (37+) actual MCAT scores tend to have beat their AAMC average, unlike people with lower MCAT scores.
and 2) students who have very high AAMC averages are equally likely to beat or perform worse than their average, just like people with lower MCAT scores.
Couldn't stay away from that MCAT data, eh?
Anyways I have to get back to my work the borderline MCAT score means I have to get my 4.0 this semester unlike the lazyness that would have probably resulted had I hit 36.
1) students who earn very high (37+) actual MCAT scores tend to have beat their AAMC average, unlike people with lower MCAT scores.
and 2) students who have very high AAMC averages are equally likely to beat or perform worse than their average, just like people with lower MCAT scores.
Couldn't stay away from that MCAT data, eh?
Anyways I have to get back to my work the borderline MCAT score means I have to get my 4.0 this semester unlike the lazyness that would have probably resulted had I hit 36.
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I'm sorry for not being optimistic. I totally think their balanced score will most likely get them in somewhere and I should have said that, I was kind of in a rush when posting my response. My biggest point though was that it's very impressive that they managed to obtain that score without any practice tests! With practice tests I can only imagine how much better they could have done, easily in the 30's. That cumGPA is good but the science GPA is amazing! If I had their stats I would totally apply. @Modonnell121 asked about DO and I said they were great for DO but I also acknowledge the fact that MD is still a good chance.
I can't speak for anyone else and I know there are some mean people on SDN, I've seen it myself. But I also know what defeat feels like so why in the world would I want to put someone else down, especially when they don't feel good already. Harsh is totally not me but if people ask for an opinion I give it do them just like you did because I know if I want an opinion I would want the facts. SDN has given me a ton of support and before joining I thought it was just a bunch of premeds putting each other down but you just have to be in the right place to avoid the discouraging part of SDN. Please don't find this offensive and I know you gave a disclaimer but your point could have been easily made without all of the swearing. Doing that makes everybody the same...
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My lord @mslm5401 may I ask from which galaxy you come from?!? Can't wait to hear where you end up going to school next year!!!!! Imma live viacariously through all of you 30's and 40's (hey even all you close 30's)Hey guys!! So, following @TonyTonyChopper ’s lead, I’ve compiled MCAT data for our date, January 10th, and January 8th. I analyzed them individually and combined. I then also combined this with TonyTonyChopper’s data, to create one graph with all the collected data. I started tracking January 10th’s test takers on page 31, and included anyone who said at least once that they were taking the test on January 10th. I calculated response rates for the 10th using these numbers. I did not calculate response rates for January 8th (I didn’t follow this thread, nor was the thread was very active until scores were posted). I closely mimicked TonyTonyChopper’s format for continuity and comparison purposes, except that I included AAMC 10&11 averages for the January test dates (which he did not have). Take everything below with a grain of salt; these are tiny sample sizes and I’m no mathematician or social scientist. One person private messaged me, so the data is not entirely reconstructable, but that individual is listed in the spreadsheet as “Anonymous” and I am more than happy to send the file over to anyone who would like to reproduce/check this data.
First, simple averages:
January 8th
Total People: 37
AAMC Average: 30.55, st. dev 3.52 (33 responses)
AAMC 10&11 Average: 32.58, st. dev 3.55 (21 responses)
Predicted: 30, st. dev 3.13 (30 responses)
Actual: 30.38, st. dev 3.76 (37 responses)
January 10th
Total people: 85
AAMC Average: 32.3, st. dev 3.68 (50 responses, 59% response rate)
10&11 Average: 33.05, st. dev 4.01 (40 responses, 47% response rate)
Predicted: 30.41, st. dev 3.66 (46 responses, 54% response rate)
Actual: 31.18 st. dev 4.34 (50 responses, 59% response rate)
I noted three individuals who were active members but then did not post scores after they were released on January 10th. This might slightly bring down the average.
Both Dates:
AAMC Average: 32.33 , st. dev 3.6 (83 responses)
10&11 Average: 32.72, st. dev 3.85 (61 responses)
Predicted: 30.23, st. dev 3.45 (76 responses)
Actual: 31.43, st. dev 4.09 (87 responses)
SDN’ers who took the test on 1/10 fared slightly better than those on 1/8 (an average of .8 points better). This is likely due to our tiny sample sizes.
Edited for clarification: These tests are very carefully scaled. I don't think the takeaway here is that the January 8th test was harder. I pointed out the difference because the data shows a difference, but I truly think that this speaks more to the nature of the SDN'ers on the 10th rather than the test itself. As determined below, people who use SDN are more likely to do above average. As the thread on the 10th was much more active, I might assume that the 10th's average is higher simply because the people who posted their scores are the type more inclined to get higher scores.
View attachment 189337
Secondly, like TonyTonyChopper, I also compared AAMC averages with actual scores from people who gave both scores. I'm including the individual data here for anyone who wants to see, but the combined data is more telling:
January 8th:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.52, st. dev 3.19 (33 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.55, st. dev 1.94
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.16, st. dev 3.33 (19 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or - 2.74, st. dev 2.14
January 10th:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.16, st. dev 2.61 (41 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.08, st. dev 1.56
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.00, st. dev 2.72 (35 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or -2.11, st. dev 1.95
January Combined:
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: -0.32, st. dev 2.87 (74 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: + or - 2.29, st. dev 1.74
Mean difference between actual score and 10&11 average: -1.09, st. dev 2.87 (56 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and 10&11 average: + or - 2.32, st. dev 2.00
So according to TonyTonyChopper’s interpretation, on average, people pretty much score their exact AAMC average. If anything, you will score about 0.3 lower than your AAMC average. This isn’t much. If you look at the absolute difference, though, it suggests otherwise. On average, people tend to score about +/- 2.29 from their average. However, SDN lore suggests that people tend to score +/- 2 from their AAMC average. Not far off!
People often say that 10&11 are a better indicator of actual scores. This data begs to differ; we see that people actually score about a point (1.09) lower than their 10&11 average. Thus, your AAMC total average seems to be a better indicator than your average for 10&11.
TonyTonyChopper found that people, on average, score +0.46 (55 people) better than their average, we found that people score about -0.32 (76 people) points worse. Considering the extremely tiny sample sizes, the overall conclusion is that you are extremely likely to score your average, though, on average, people will score +/- 2 in either direction (TonyTonyChoper’s data suggested +/-1.88, ours suggested +/- 2.29).
Thirdly, I also combined TonyTonyChoppers combined data with our combined data, for more complete stats:
August 7th, 2014 (8am&2pm) and January 8th and 10th, 2015
AAMC Average: 32.15, st. dev 3.63 (144 responses)
Predicted Score: 30.14, st. dev 3.66 (136 responses)
Actual Score: 31.70, st. dev 4.29 (154 responses)
Mean difference between actual score and AAMC average: +.016, st. dev 2.68 (129 responses)
Absolute difference between actual score and AAMC average: 2.11, st. dev 1.63
SDN’ers, as TonyTonyChopper previously concluded, are still in fact above average. Also, overall, we see that actual scores will be less than .02 away from AAMC averages. This is tiny!!
View attachment 189336
In addition to what TonyTonyChopper calculated, I played around with predicted scores a bit, to see how indicative they are of actual scores. It’s clear from above that the actual score, on average, is about 1.5 points higher than predicted. But I noticed that rather than several people underestimating their score by a point and a half, some people greatly overestimated and others greatly underestimated. So I decided to plot the difference between actual and predicted scores against the actual score received. I was surprised to find somewhat of a correlation. Those who scored lower than a 26.5 tended to overestimate their scores. Those who scored above about a 26.5 tended to underestimate. Take this with a grain of salt though; very few people scored at either end of the spectrum, and a much smaller cohort of people reported both predictions and scores. For that reason, I am including the chart as well— that way you can see how minuscule the sample size is.
View attachment 189334 View attachment 189335
Great job everyone! I am attaching TonyTonyChopper's original post. None of this would have happened without his pioneering efforts and support. I hope this was informative!! Let me know if anything is unclear
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@magictouch Haha I couldn't! Once you start, you have to figure it out lol. Rather than doing average change per discrete score, which is a PITA, I just plotted it all as is. That's why the predicted score data looks so much cleaner. But yeah, very well said
@TheEngineeringNerd Thank you!! Haha I'm sure you'll end up somewhere great too
@TheEngineeringNerd Thank you!! Haha I'm sure you'll end up somewhere great too
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@MD89 Haha no such thing!! It's all just data
Edit: Hahahaha just checked out your scores. You beat your average by 5 points?!? You rock. Congrats!
Thank you! I'm honestly still in shock.
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Test date: 1/10/2015
Time: 1 pm
AAMC average: 28
AAMC 10-11 average: 30 (9/11/10)
Post test expected score: 27 (7/10/10)
Actual score: 33 (10/11/12)
I have no idea how I pulled that off...but I'm sure glad I did! Thanks to all of you for the encouragement in the days/weeks leading up to the test!
Time: 1 pm
AAMC average: 28
AAMC 10-11 average: 30 (9/11/10)
Post test expected score: 27 (7/10/10)
Actual score: 33 (10/11/12)
I have no idea how I pulled that off...but I'm sure glad I did! Thanks to all of you for the encouragement in the days/weeks leading up to the test!
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@Cawolf - Your score is incredible (just looked through some of your prior posts). How on Earth did you score so high?
I think the main reason for the discrepancy with me is entirely due to verbal. I consistently scored 10s on I think about 7 of the 8 AAMC exams and scored a 13 on the actual, so otherwise I would have been within the normal +/- 2 range.
I think the main reason for the discrepancy with me is entirely due to verbal. I consistently scored 10s on I think about 7 of the 8 AAMC exams and scored a 13 on the actual, so otherwise I would have been within the normal +/- 2 range.
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@MD89
I think it was just a combination of really enjoying my MCAT studying and spending a lot of time answering questions in the Q&A forum here. My actual studying was relatively light!
Thank you though. That's awesome that you scored that far above your average, I would have been thrilled with a 36!
I think it was just a combination of really enjoying my MCAT studying and spending a lot of time answering questions in the Q&A forum here. My actual studying was relatively light!
Thank you though. That's awesome that you scored that far above your average, I would have been thrilled with a 36!
H
HCHopeful
Big thanks to @mslm5401 for the data! Interesting to see the numbers.
Glad to see quite a few of you met your goals! I was a 1/08 taker and increased my scored from a 27 (9/9/9) on October 21st to a 31 (12/9/10)! Obviously it's not the best score in the world, but I am more than happy with it. Can't ever complain about joining that 30+ club
Good luck to all of the people who will be taking MCAT2015. Don't be afraid of it! Use this as a learning experience and move forward with confidence. Y'all got this.
Glad to see quite a few of you met your goals! I was a 1/08 taker and increased my scored from a 27 (9/9/9) on October 21st to a 31 (12/9/10)! Obviously it's not the best score in the world, but I am more than happy with it. Can't ever complain about joining that 30+ club
Good luck to all of the people who will be taking MCAT2015. Don't be afraid of it! Use this as a learning experience and move forward with confidence. Y'all got this.
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@Cawolf
I'm super impressed - both with your score and the fact that you enjoyed the studying. It was torture for me but that's mainly because I work so many hours (I'm in an unrelated career) and had to keep the studying/test a secret from everyone.
And I would have been happy with a 29 just to get me into DO school. I am truly humbled with my score. I do keep logging in to make sure it hasn't changed, lol.
I'm super impressed - both with your score and the fact that you enjoyed the studying. It was torture for me but that's mainly because I work so many hours (I'm in an unrelated career) and had to keep the studying/test a secret from everyone.
And I would have been happy with a 29 just to get me into DO school. I am truly humbled with my score. I do keep logging in to make sure it hasn't changed, lol.
....Who needs to study for a pathophysiology exam anyway, right?
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I wasn't really targeting you but if I recall correctly, you had also said that MD would be hard and I think Modonell(?) also inquired if she has a shot in med school so her/his focus wasn't just on DO route - in which you said it would be pretty hard - I'm too lazy to look up the exact correspondences. I guess my level of swearing is unforeseen in a forum like this - which I find quite amusing because if you've gone through college and had diverse group of friends Im sure you have encountered some people just swearing a little to make their point. I wasn't really swearing to someone, was I? Hahahaha
Hey guys... January 8th test taker here. @mslm5401 you are awesome bro; I bet that analysis took a lot of time and effort.
I am also sorry I messed up your data but I'm glad I did better.
My AAMC practice average is 27(10,7,10)------>[27(10,7,10);26(10,6,10);30(12,7,11);25(10,6,9)]
For the real deal I got a 31(12,9,10). The verbal score came off as such a shock to me--I took a bunch of EK VR section tests and only scored around 6-8.
@Cawolf Your score is extremely ridiculous and awesome since the smartest person I know scored only a 39. I wonder how smart you are
--really smart!
I am also sorry I messed up your data but I'm glad I did better.
My AAMC practice average is 27(10,7,10)------>[27(10,7,10);26(10,6,10);30(12,7,11);25(10,6,9)]
For the real deal I got a 31(12,9,10). The verbal score came off as such a shock to me--I took a bunch of EK VR section tests and only scored around 6-8.
@Cawolf Your score is extremely ridiculous and awesome since the smartest person I know scored only a 39. I wonder how smart you are
--really smart!
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For the real deal I got a 31(12,9,10). The verbal score came off as such a shock to me--I took a bunch of EK VR section tests and only scored around 6-8.
@Cawolf Your score is extremely ridiculous and awesome since the smartest person I know scored only a 39. I wonder how smart you are
Congrats! That is an awesome increase over your average.
And thank you! It is nice to see things like that on SDN because in real life I told no one except my family. It is not a good feeling to share your score with the people you know who scored much lower.
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calsp: I appreciate the encouragement, the cursing doesn't bother me! It's true that some posters on this forum do seem too uptight about GPA+MCAT scores (not talking about EngineeringNerd): the averages are averages and include matriculants both above and below that number. I'm actually a Maryland resident and we only have one state school and the average MCAT is 31, so I'm still gonna apply there as well as at a few nearby MD schools but many more DO schools that appeal to me. I will most likely go to a DO school though as I've had very good experiences with the DO's I've known. Good luck in your med school path as well!
EngineeringNerd: I actually saw your post as optimistic and encouraging, I was glad that my stats seemed great for DO as that's what I've been leaning towards anyway. I'm honestly surprised I did that well too without practice tests. I've always had a knack for standardized tests so I just kind of assumed I would do well. Looking back I wish I had, I freaking ran out of time on verbal reasoning b/c I didn't know how to time myself at all, couldn't read two whole passages so I had to almost entirely guess on them.
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Final note on this mcat forum, awesome job everyone working together on here. It helped a lot going through this with all of you and I wish everyone the best. Who knows? Maybe on day we'll encounter each other in the real world and wonder "hey was that the guy/girl on sdn x years ago?" Great job on data mslm5401.
Take care everyone, feel free to P.M me on Qs relative to nj schools and d.o
Take care everyone, feel free to P.M me on Qs relative to nj schools and d.o
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Smart and humble daaaaannnnnnggggg!Congrats! That is an awesome increase over your average.
And thank you! It is nice to see things like that on SDN because in real life I told no one except my family. It is not a good feeling to share your score with the people you know who scored much lower.
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Haha @TheEngineeringNerd, I really think I just work hard and am motivated - not inherently smarter than average.
But thank you!
But thank you!
Hey guys, long-time lurker but I wrote the Jan 10th test and scored a 29 (PS-11, VR-8, BS-10).
I am Canadian with a 3.85 GPA, and good EC's, letter of recommendations etc. I am out of the running for most Canadian schools due to the lower VR score, but I am looking to apply to some lower tier medical schools in the US such as Central Michigan, Howard University etc that take Canadians. Do I have any shot of getting an interview from some of these schools? Or will that VR score kill my chances?
Any input would be greatly appreciated!
I am Canadian with a 3.85 GPA, and good EC's, letter of recommendations etc. I am out of the running for most Canadian schools due to the lower VR score, but I am looking to apply to some lower tier medical schools in the US such as Central Michigan, Howard University etc that take Canadians. Do I have any shot of getting an interview from some of these schools? Or will that VR score kill my chances?
Any input would be greatly appreciated!
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You might get into some better US med schools than the ones you listed. I would suggest applying broadly and apply to the ones you listed as well as some better ones. You never know since you said your rec letters and EC's are good
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Buy MSAR! It's the most useful 20ish dollars you will spend in this process haha
Once you do, you can see how many international students applied, were interviwed, and got in at all the US med schools that 'claim' to take Canadians/internationals (aka some are listed there, but didn't interview a single person....)
But you've probably got a shot, if you apply early/broadly. There's also the DO route, although more difficulties returning to Canada from that option
Also...I feel your struggles with VR in Canada. I'm applying US MD as my backup, because a 35 with a 10VR is apparently useless at half the schools in this country.....
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Wow Candians have it hard... Thank you US med schools
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we do have it cheaper though, if you can find a way to get in
either way isn't easy....
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I didn't know you were Candadian! Well either way, paying the debt won't take long after residency.
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I don't want this forum to end wahhhhhh!
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hope not, haha the watching that Canadian dollar is painfull though.....
We are all on the same boat. I screwed up so bad. I also didn't have many distractions and a put in a lot of free time for studying. My problem wasn't content, but more about timing, strategy and attitude. I need to rethink my strategy and attitude and study habits as well.
I am deciding between purchasing the Kaplan book set or the EK book set or another one. Have you guys found out which one is generally better for the 2015 MCAT? I know mostly everybody thought the EK books were better for the 2014 MCAT.
Lets master this damn thing! Feel free to KIT and DM me!
I know some of you are planning on taking the 2015 MCAT and I would like to help you out if anyone is in need of some good study materials. I have the Kaplan Complete 7 Book Subject Review for the 2015 MCAT. I received these books on accident when I was ordering Kaplan material for the old MCAT. I did not use these books at all, they have just been sitting in my room so they are in "New" condition without any writing or highlighting in them. They retail on Amazon for $160 and I would be willing to sell them for $100. I used the Kaplan review books for my most recent MCAT (Jan 10th) and they definitely helped me increase my score to a 31. I think these books are great studying material. Let me know if you are interested.
