Ranking and Matching

[peenie]

After looking at the 2013 NRMP, I am quite worried. Those who did not match into gen surg interviewed at a median of 8 programs. I also heard from a a resident that last year some people did not match even when they interviewed at 15 schools....

2013 NRMP
b83c73bcf0e7ca356c80-e8560f466940e4ec38ed51af32994bc6.r6.cf1.rackcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/applicantresultsbyspecialty2013.pdf

I have received quite a few interviews, but I am paranoid that I still won't match. If you interview at 20+ schools, does that even help? Aside from the fact that i would go insane after so many interviews, what are the chances that you would even match at the school that you rank as #20 (from my understanding of the match algorithm, if anyone ranks them as #1 they would already get that spot). Is it just a matter of ranking strategically??? Please advise/correct me if my thoughts are wrong.

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[thyroidectomy]

In short, YES the more you rank the better your chances of matching, NO you cannot strategically rank. An example of the algorithm is on the NRMP website. Basically, your rank list does not affect whether or not you are "ranked to match" at a program, which is determined ONLY by the program's rank list AND how other applicants rank. 2 examples: 1. You are ranked #3 by a program that takes 6 people. You will match at this program (regardless of it's position on your list) if you do not match at a program higher on your list. 2. You are ranked #11 at a place that takes 10. You will only match at this program (regardless of it's position on your list) if and only if 1 or more people ranked 1-10 by the program match at a program higher on their rank lists.

 

[SouthernSurgeon]

After looking at the 2013 NRMP, I am quite worried. Those who did not match into gen surg interviewed at a median of 8 programs. I also heard from a a resident that last year some people did not match even when they interviewed at 15 schools....

2013 NRMP
b83c73bcf0e7ca356c80-e8560f466940e4ec38ed51af32994bc6.r6.cf1.rackcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/applicantresultsbyspecialty2013.pdf

I have received quite a few interviews, but I am paranoid that I still won't match. If you interview at 20+ schools, does that even help? Aside from the fact that i would go insane after so many interviews, what are the chances that you would even match at the school that you rank as #20 (from my understanding of the match algorithm, if anyone ranks them as #1 they would already get that spot). Is it just a matter of ranking strategically??? Please advise/correct me if my thoughts are wrong.

There will always be people who don't match. The 2013 NRMP survey you linked doesn't really tell you much. The more relevant document is the "Charting Outcomes of the Match" which was last released in 2011.

That document shows that as the #of programs you rank increases, there is an asymptotic curve that approaches but never reaches 100%. But what that implies is that after a certain point you reach a diminishing return. Which is why most interviewees stop interviewing once they hit 12-15 programs.

Sure, in general "more" is always better. But the likelihood that that 19th program on your list will be the difference is pretty low.

To look at it another way...if you've landed 20 interviews...and gone to 20 interviews...and none of those programs are ranking you highly enough to match...then you've probably done something wrong. Either your application has some red flag, or you're a terrible interviewee, or something.

Now as to the rank list...you're conceptualizing it wrong. Your odds of matching at a program do not decrease by putting it lower on your rank list (except of course if you match at one of the programs higher on your own list, but that's a beneficial outcome for you).

 

[Winged Scapula]

Think of the match like dating

The more dates you go on, the more likely you are to find your perfect match.

However, the number of people you date is independent of another person's feelings about you.

You can try and manipulate their feelings by telling them how much you care ("I'm ranking you number one!"") but in the end they will make their decision about who they like the best and you will make yours. Hopefully you'll both end up with, if not the perfect one, someone you can live with happily.

 

[SLUser11]

Think of the match like dating

The more dates you go on, the more likely you are to find your perfect match.

However, the number of people you date is independent of another person's feelings about you.

You can try and manipulate their feelings by telling them how much you care ("I'm ranking you number one!"") but in the end they will make their decision about who they like the best and you will make yours. Hopefully you'll both end up with, if not the perfect one, someone you can live with happily.

Mandatory divorce in 5 to 7 years, though....

You may still see the kids occasionally, but not on a regular basis. And, like any ex-spouse, the program will continually ask you for money...

 

[ayushman]

is there a reason that there isn't more discussion about people's ROLs prior to the February deadline? I've noticed that in year's past, people have posted their ROLs, but only after the deadline had passed. I was just wondering if there was some reason people avoided it or if it was more superstition. I would be happy to share mine as I'm still struggling to figure out the order and could use some sage advice from the likes of SLUser/WS/southernIM

 

[MS87]

is there a reason that there isn't more discussion about people's ROLs prior to the February deadline? I've noticed that in year's past, people have posted their ROLs, but only after the deadline had passed. I was just wondering if there was some reason people avoided it or if it was more superstition. I would be happy to share mine as I'm still struggling to figure out the order and could use some sage advice from the likes of SLUser/WS/southernIM

the only reason I can think of is maybe people don't want to affect other people's ROLs with their own? Like if a bunch of people say they are ranking program X 1, maybe somebody will reconsider their own list, rank it 1 and match there over original posters?