- Joined
- Jul 23, 2012
- Messages
- 260
- Reaction score
- 307
We can all hope they die.. For the docs who work for them I hope its a quick death and maximal pain inflicted on Apollo and Dbag and co.Rising Interest rates are going to take ALOT of CMGs and business alike down. The access to cheap capital is not available. Trying to refinance your way out of debt is not available. Either you increase income, decrease costs or you will fail. I don't see how USACS can increase income or decrease costs.
If creditors are aware of this situation, why would they ever loan 9B to KKR when there is a very high chance they won't see that money back?Love this, but the reality of it is that PE doesn't "lose" in the end.
It's a leveraged debt buyout. KKR buys Envision with $1B of their own money from a healthcare fund. They get the other $9B as debt taken out on the Envision business itself, collateralized by it's assets. KKR is not at risk for this money, only their initial equity. Envision makes $7B net revenue a year. Within a year or two, KKR's $1B is paid back and KKR is now making risk-free cash. Keep things going for 5+ years, and the ROI is extremely high.
The thing to remember is that Envision is going bankrupt. Not KKR. Their 1B and then some was paid back long ago. What they may lose is the cash spigot they've been drinking out of. However, as these things generally go, Envision has creditors that stand to lose 100% of their investment if Envision goes under. So the best option is for the creditors to agree to an arrangement where Amsurg and whatever profitable portions of the company are spun off separate from the bad ones (which are thrown in the dumpster), and the creditors are paid a few cents on the dollar (which is better than zero cents on the dollar) from the new KKR/Amsurg/Profitable entity, which again, will continue to pay KKR (albeit less than before).
PE gets out of these things unscathed. The companies they pillage and everyone else get the short end of the stick.
Do you have the source for this? I asked somebody for this months ago (maybe it was you) but they never responded because I couldn’t find where this was accurate. If I remember right, this Envision money was a significant chunk of this particular fund.Keep in mind the kkr fund that owned envision has returned 18% per year. Thats with whatever they lost here. Pe is winning. Their setup is to always win.
Do you have the source for this? I asked somebody for this months ago (maybe it was you) but they never responded because I couldn’t find where this was accurate. If I remember right, this Envision money was a significant chunk of this particular fund.
That doesn’t break it up into all the funds (unless I missed it) that KKR has, more specifically, the fund that holds the Envision assets which is what Ectopic is saying has returned 18%. I’d have to look back but off the top of my head the $9B or whatever it was put into Envision was a large majority of the entire fund. The entire fund was like $14B or something.KKR Average Annual Return 10 Years
KKR average annual return 10 Years, table and charts, presented by AverageAnnualReturn.comwww.averageannualreturn.com
I have seen it much cleaner elsewhere but it is owned by KKR AMericas fund XII.That doesn’t break it up into all the funds (unless I missed it) that KKR has, more specifically, the fund that holds the Envision assets which is what Ectopic is saying has returned 18%. I’d have to look back but off the top of my head the $9B or whatever it was put into Envision was a large majority of the entire fund. The entire fund was like $14B or something.
They usually get strong rates. I mean this is what Apollo did with USACS. When interest rates are 4-5% those guys got 6.5-10.5%. Outsized returns. APollo did it with control and more importantly power. I assume the lenders just took much better rates. If no NSA envision might be chugging along. While their troubles started ahead of time reality is that they started to move away from the balance bill game as soon as they sorted out this was a possibility. That cost them money right up front. They were poorly run for a while but the money was flowing like crazy so it didnt matter.I get the economics of leveraged buyouts.
I don't get who the suckers are that lend the money to envision/KKR as the "leveraged" part of the buyout.
When you and I leverage to get a home, it's verified out the wazoo that we can pay and is backed by the land/home. When you play leverage on a portfolio loan, it's backed by your account.
What ***** is lending money to PE backed companies in non priority positions when the company is indebted to the gills?
They usually get strong rates. I mean this is what Apollo did with USACS. When interest rates are 4-5% those guys got 6.5-10.5%. Outsized returns. APollo did it with control and more importantly power. I assume the lenders just took much better rates. If no NSA envision might be chugging along. While their troubles started ahead of time reality is that they started to move away from the balance bill game as soon as they sorted out this was a possibility. That cost them money right up front. They were poorly run for a while but the money was flowing like crazy so it didnt matter.
Many with $$$ is ignorant. They see the VCs having a good track record, and they just dump money in without due diligence.Oh I understand the idea of risk premium and accepting risk of loss of principle in exchange for higher return.
The issue is relative to market, the risk premium was absurdly small. The risk of loss of principle with such high rates of leverage is extremely high. Obviously we have hindsight, but many on this board have seen the writing on the wall for years. Loading an asset light business with a debt to value of near 100% meant the business was doomed with any rise in rates.
There is a reason used car lots charge 25% APR with 50% LTV. Risk of default is high so you charge high rates and win big if there is no default, but have limited downside risk due to repo of the physical asset. It's not win/lose, it's win big/win small.
In these cases, lending money for slightly above market rates with high leverage and massive downside risk just makes no sense whatsoever.
These banks do well even in such a circumstance as this.Oh I understand the idea of risk premium and accepting risk of loss of principle in exchange for higher return.
The issue is relative to market, the risk premium was absurdly small. The risk of loss of principle with such high rates of leverage is extremely high. Obviously we have hindsight, but many on this board have seen the writing on the wall for years. Loading an asset light business with a debt to value of near 100% meant the business was doomed with any rise in rates.
There is a reason used car lots charge 25% APR with 50% LTV. Risk of default is high so you charge high rates and win big if there is no default, but have limited downside risk due to repo of the physical asset. It's not win/lose, it's win big/win small.
In these cases, lending money for slightly above market rates with high leverage and massive downside risk just makes no sense whatsoever.
The issue is moodys and other agencies didn’t rate their debt poorly enough. In general each classification gets you to a range of rates. These people said oooh healthcare. That’s stable. Welp. Fafo. I’m not sad about it. The new TH debt and usacs and sound debt will be refinanced at very high levels.Oh I understand the idea of risk premium and accepting risk of loss of principle in exchange for higher return.
The issue is relative to market, the risk premium was absurdly small. The risk of loss of principle with such high rates of leverage is extremely high. Obviously we have hindsight, but many on this board have seen the writing on the wall for years. Loading an asset light business with a debt to value of near 100% meant the business was doomed with any rise in rates.
There is a reason used car lots charge 25% APR with 50% LTV. Risk of default is high so you charge high rates and win big if there is no default, but have limited downside risk due to repo of the physical asset. It's not win/lose, it's win big/win small.
In these cases, lending money for slightly above market rates with high leverage and massive downside risk just makes no sense whatsoever.
These banks do well even in such a circumstance as this.
As mentioned previously, they get a very strong premium. Sometimes double the prime rate.
The key is that these deals are not obtained in isolation - for each Envision KKR brings, a group of investment banks (Goldman, Citi, UBS, Credit Suisse, etc., I think there are 20+ involved in this deal) helps to finance it. Along with that, KKR brings them groups of deals. It's not Envision or healthcare in isolation. It's everything KKR does. And KKR is damn good at one thing: making money. Which makes the banks money. The banks spread the risk out among multiple deals. Overall, the risk profile is favorable, and the returns are massively outsize.
Even when a deal such as this eventually fails, you must realize that it chugged along for 5+ years with 7B+ of cash flow directed at the benefit of the PE firm and banks. The larger shares the banks have and the earlier they get in, the more favorable terms they acquire on both the prior debts that Envision held as well as the restructuring terms, and how Amsurg, etc., are going to continue to pay them back after restructuring.
In a way it is almost like a pyramid scheme, that the more times the debt is subsequently restructured with other creditors, the less favorable their terms are (even though their rates are higher, the risk increases significantly. But on the flip side, to jump in and play ball may bring you more opportunities at earlier stages that are more favorable in the future), on and on, until the whole thing collapses. The last ones in get the most screwed in general. Eventually things get to the point where creditors realize they will 100% get screwed and decide they are not going to lend to restructure the debt and then the music stops. You want to be the big dog invited to the table right up front, in which case, you are much more protected.
The guys who lent them money did fine. Keep in mind they had years of fat returns, did they lose probably, the will get more out of the deal once the bankruptcy finishes. They made a ton of their other deals i am sure.I think sometimes it is overstated how good these deals are. Maybe if they do 30 of them...the majority work out. But some don't. But the debt holders / creditors for this deal are getting ****ed.
It's why we diversify our stock holding. Hold an ETF or invest in 20-30 stocks. You'll lose some, but you win on most.
It's not like the creditors of the 9B, who are getting pennies back on the dollar, are sitting around smoking cigars, drinking whiskey slapping each other on the back saying "Good job mates! You got 22c on the dollar for that deal!"
I do agree with what I think you are suggesting, which is that we have a favorable economic and political environment for these kinds of companies and business deals to succeed with, in general, great success. That's why they are done.
Don't know about that. It takes a lot of years of above market returns to make up for loss of principal plus investing in the market.The guys who lent them money did fine. Keep in mind they had years of fat returns, did they lose probably, the will get more out of the deal once the bankruptcy finishes. They made a ton of their other deals i am sure.
I would assume that they are explaining why someone in PE is perusing an emergency medicine internet forum.What does being a 'pre-med' have to do with anything? That's like me saying I had planned on playing professional sports. It means nothing and gives me no credibility.
Says the guy that posts detailed, clearly understandable, medico-legal posts.I couldn't read it. Too much bolded text. My ADD doesn't allow me to do so.
No caffeine today. Worked last night, slept for 90 mins, had 3 hours of meetings, then slept until 4:30pm. I'm a bit loopy.Says the guy that posts detailed, clearly understandable, medico-legal posts.
!!
Do u know this for a fact? Cause their equity is now 0 they paid for that. I know they had years of good returns but I don’t think the details are available.KKR did not lose money. They wrote it down and rode what they had. Granted it was not astronomical returns but they were solid.
Seems weird since they are no longer a pre-med and work in PE.I would assume that they are explaining why someone in PE is perusing an emergency medicine internet forum.
Seems weird since they are no longer a pre-med and work in PE.
Let me just say that life is random. I met someone within KKR while I was at a wedding. KKR rented out the entire resort for a company event the day after the wedding weekend. I thought the wedding was lavish, but KKR events are next level. We are definitely in the wrong field.
Just because you have a nasty abscess over your scapula that you need to incise and drain, doesn't mean you aren't an otherwise healthy and functioning individual. Perhaps even an exceptionally healthy individual. But that abscess? Its a distinctly unhealthy part of you. If the scope of the discussion is only the left scapula, things look really rancid. You cut it out and accept whatever scar/crater it leaves behind. How much that impacts your life really depends on how the rest of your body outside of your scapula is, it could be a small blemish and nothing more (what I imagine to be true). Its not likely, but i guess possivble, to be indicative of your whole body.
I struggle with this a bit. I have lots of friends decently high up in PE. They’ve come out numerically far far ahead of me and will always be. But when I go with them to PE events, or meet their finance bro friends, I don’t see the draw at all.Let me just say that life is random. I met someone within KKR while I was at a wedding. KKR rented out the entire resort for a company event the day after the wedding weekend. I thought the wedding was lavish, but KKR events are next level. We are definitely in the wrong field.
I struggle with this a bit. I have lots of friends decently high up in PE. They’ve come out numerically far far ahead of me and will always be. But when I go with them to PE events, or meet their finance bro friends, I don’t see the draw at all.
The dinners are lavish, the trips are out of this world. They’re buying second homes at 30, I’m barely scraping by basically working and sleeping.
But I dont like the people, the work sounds boring, and I’m not sure how much fulfillment I’d get from having a black amex and it’s perks. I’d love to be able to buy my parents some nice gifts some day, or be able to reliably afford a house and a kid in a major city.
Meanwhile having a fun shifts with a cool other doc or taking care of some fun, grateful cases? Priceless. Its tough to find a middle ground
Quoted for truth.
They'll bury me with my stethoscope, after the students have dissected my cadaver. Money is cool to some people; but when I die - I want to hear St. Peter say: "Bro. Matthew 25? Verse 40? Yeah, its clear that you understood that one. Also, killer biceps bro. Head on in; golf course is to the left, mountain bike trails are to the right."
Teamhealth and usacs debt ratings downgraded.
Who ran inova before? Envision?
Those inova sites better prep for less $$$.
Makes it a worse bad thing and practically raises the cost to carry debt. When usacs and teamhealth have to refinance their debt the interest rate will be that much higher."Downgraded"?
Forgive me, if you downgrade a bad thing, does that make it a better, bad thing?