I know few people who don't practice Nephrology anymore. If that number is 50% and they went back to being Internists that's still good for overall market for the rest of us, right?. There is less competition for the existing people. The Practicing Market adjusts based on Necessity. I am not a fan of reducing the spots, as doing so will artificially inflate the demand for fellowship positions temporarily but it does not serve the purpose. Many fellowship PDs told me during my interview that they are not in control and I felt really good. I hate the Ivory tower talk from the faculties and PDs even from the middle of nowhere IM residency programs in the country. I have been a victim of abusive PD who take residents for granted.
Anyways many programs spots are unfilled regardless and the IMGs who has not done residency cannot come into the market as they can not practice without residency in general. They will go back to their own country to practice Nephrology, where they are welcomed with red carpet.
This drop out rate isnt New , it has been going on for years , has that made Nephrology Job market/compensation any better ? it has only gotten worse .
It has been discussed previously that ESRD /HD patients are the largest revenue source but its a deprecating pool , even patients with private insurances last 2 years on HD and after that Medicare takes over and we already know their compensations sucks and is heavily regulated .
Also, as per USRDS , mortality is 40-50% with in 5 years of initiating HD , so a practicing Nephrologist must have a constant stream of such patients even to keep ESRD/HD patients at a steady number in their practice , its a uphill battle which only a few win.
I dont have the number /statistics of IMG's and their current practice who have done residencies after doing Nephro fellowship, it will be interesting to see if after using Nephro as a stepping stone they are still pursuing it as a career or Not .
I know a few programs at east coast who were heavily recruiting IMG's wo residency in Nephro fellowship and many candidates after their residencies didn't pursue Nephrology.
Its really unfortunate though bc those IMG's get abused , do scut work and didactics remain poor and they tend to remain silent bc of job security since for many losing that spot means deportation ( because of Visa ) , unfortunately .
I still believe reducing number of fellowship spots might help this field and recruitment crisis , this is what we called adjustment to Market Conditions but seems Nephro programs are getting away by hiring IMG's wo residency so this trend is unlikely to change .
In Pure Monetary terms , this filed is unattractive , given wide work to income ratio , if some one wants to pursue purely for passion then go for it , otherwise when it comes to paying bills /college education for kids , its really bitter to see Nephrologists trying to switch to being a PCP or Hospitalist after burning precious years .
I will encourage many silent members of this Forum who left Nephro and are practicing in other fields to share their experience .