Will decreasing birth rates affect job security?

[MateoGM416]

Hello,

I'm an incoming OMS-1 and think I would really like peds from the shadowing I've done, and I was just wondering what SDN peds thought about how our country's declining birth rates might affect patient populations for pediatricians in the future? I know pediatrics is already the lowest paid medical specialty, not that I care about the money, but I can't help but imagine a doomsday scenario where I get through residency and I'm fighting for the same jobs as experienced pediatricians. I know it's way too early to be thinking about this stuff, but I feel like it doesn't hurt to start thinking about it. Also, this sub-forum seems pretty dead anyway. 🤷‍♂️

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[GoSpursGo]

Also, this sub-forum seems pretty dead anyway. 🤷‍♂️

Ouch!

If your endgame is outpatient general pediatrics then you will be totally fine. In fact any primary care specialty is going to be fine, as these are the fields where the doctor shortage remains real. There are several pediatric subspecialties where the job market is less rosy, but in general you should be able to find a job as a pediatrician.

 

[SurfingDoctor]

Not even close.

 

[Oso]

I would not spend any more time worrying about this

 

[MateoGM416]

I would not spend any more time worrying about this

I'm not really, hopefully this thread will serve as a reference so that no one else on this forum asks such a silly question lol

 

[LaughingMan]

I'll disagree with these other posters.

Gen Peds is a struggling field. The field is already being replaced by midlevels. What positions that may exist in the future will likely be managerial roles.

I always point to stories like this:

Dozens Of Pediatricians Losing Jobs As Children's Health Clinics Change Management

Families all over North Texas are learning they're about to lose their trusted family doctors. Dozens of pediatricians are losing their jobs as Children's Health gives up management of most of its clinics -- with two of them set to close.

www.cbsnews.com

My own graduating class in residency, multiple people had difficulties finding gen peds jobs that are reasonable.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I'll disagree with these other posters.

Gen Peds is a struggling field. The field is already being replaced by midlevels. What positions that may exist in the future will likely be managerial roles.

I always point to stories like this:

Dozens Of Pediatricians Losing Jobs As Children's Health Clinics Change Management

Families all over North Texas are learning they're about to lose their trusted family doctors. Dozens of pediatricians are losing their jobs as Children's Health gives up management of most of its clinics -- with two of them set to close.

www.cbsnews.com

My own graduating class in residency, multiple people had difficulties finding gen peds jobs that are reasonable.

I work in one of the fastest growing areas in the country and we are 30 minutes away from a faster growing place. Both local hospital systems are hiring for multiple general pediatricians. Heck even MUSC has multiple job postings.

 

[MateoGM416]

I'll disagree with these other posters.

Gen Peds is a struggling field. The field is already being replaced by midlevels. What positions that may exist in the future will likely be managerial roles.

I always point to stories like this:

Dozens Of Pediatricians Losing Jobs As Children's Health Clinics Change Management

Families all over North Texas are learning they're about to lose their trusted family doctors. Dozens of pediatricians are losing their jobs as Children's Health gives up management of most of its clinics -- with two of them set to close.

www.cbsnews.com

My own graduating class in residency, multiple people had difficulties finding gen peds jobs that are reasonable.

Hmm that is concerning, although as someone who grew up in DFW I will say that I always felt like the metroplex was relatively oversaturated with docs already especially compared to the rest of TX. Maybe hopefully it’s just a geographic thing

 

[LaughingMan]

Hmm that is concerning, although as someone who grew up in DFW I will say that I always felt like the metroplex was relatively oversaturated with docs already especially compared to the rest of TX. Maybe hopefully it’s just a geographic thing

I'm from Houston and it was very difficult finding a good job. I had offers but they were all for sketchy places. Pediatrics is bottom of the barrel for salary. The only way you make more money is by admin forcing you to see more and more patients.

The whole benefit of our profession is nice meaningful relationships with families and their kids. When we are being forced to churn patients, it takes away the the pleasure.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I'm from Houston and it was very difficult finding a good job. I had offers but they were all for sketchy places. Pediatrics is bottom of the barrel for salary. The only way you make more money is by admin forcing you to see more and more patients.

The whole benefit of our profession is nice meaningful relationships with families and their kids. When we are being forced to churn patients, it takes away the the pleasure.

Texas is a notoriously physician-friendly state between lack of income taxes and favorable malpractice environment, I'm not surprised that the job market there is tighter than other places.

I think pretty much everyone agrees that pediatricians are underpaid.

 

[MateoGM416]

Meh I don't really care about the money, I just want to get out of debt ASAP. But in the long run I'd rather have a fulfilling 9-5 and be poor then be loaded with dough and have a job I hate.

 

[Putkernerinthehall]

I'm from Houston and it was very difficult finding a good job. I had offers but they were all for sketchy places. Pediatrics is bottom of the barrel for salary. The only way you make more money is by admin forcing you to see more and more patients.

The whole benefit of our profession is nice meaningful relationships with families and their kids. When we are being forced to churn patients, it takes away the the pleasure.

Did you apply for pediatrician positions in "non-sketchy" places ?

 

[Putkernerinthehall]

Ouch!

If your endgame is outpatient general pediatrics then you will be totally fine. In fact any primary care specialty is going to be fine, as these are the fields where the doctor shortage remains real. There are several pediatric subspecialties where the job market is less rosy, but in general you should be able to find a job as a pediatrician.

Are you speaking in terms of specific geographic areas or do your statements refer to the nation as a whole ? Are you aware of pockets where pediatricians are having trouble finding full time work ?

 

[Putkernerinthehall]

Not even close.

Can you elaborate ?

 

[SurfingDoctor]

Can you elaborate ?

If you are talking about general pediatrics, there are literally areas of the US with little to no pediatricians.

They are called “healthcare deserts”…

Large swaths of rural America are health care deserts with too few primary care doctors, pediatricians, and OB-GYNs to care for residents

In 207 counties in 2018, there wasn’t a family, general or internal medicine doctor – the primary care doctors mainly for adults, according to an InvestigateTV analysis of federal data.

www.wcax.com

 

[Putkernerinthehall]

If you are talking about general pediatrics, there are literally areas of the US with little to no pediatricians.

They are called “healthcare deserts”…

Large swaths of rural America are health care deserts with too few primary care doctors, pediatricians, and OB-GYNs to care for residents

In 207 counties in 2018, there wasn’t a family, general or internal medicine doctor – the primary care doctors mainly for adults, according to an InvestigateTV analysis of federal data.

www.wcax.com

Thanks for the reference. How about major urban centers ?

 

[SurfingDoctor]

Thanks for the reference. How about major urban centers ?

You are going to have a harder time finding a job there.

And if you do find a job, you’ll get less pay.

That has nothing to do with birth rates though.

 

[LaughingMan]

Did you apply for pediatrician positions in "non-sketchy" places ?

No, nice suburbs of Houston. This specific practice was in Cypress. Each doctor would see on average 50 patients per day. They told me to stop by and see how they make it work. Yeah no thanks.

Any place seeing above 40 patients per day on a typical workday is not giving good care--period. Or, what happens is, the Pedi doc goes above and beyond and is forced to run behind all day, miss lunch, then stay late after work.

 

[LaughingMan]

Texas is a notoriously physician-friendly state between lack of income taxes and favorable malpractice environment, I'm not surprised that the job market there is tighter than other places.

I think pretty much everyone agrees that pediatricians are underpaid.

Reasonable. Job market was rough. I will acknowledge I was only looking in major metropolitan areas--which likely hindered my search.

 

[Putkernerinthehall]

Reasonable. Job market was rough. I will acknowledge I was only looking in major metropolitan areas--which likely hindered my search.

That seems to be the key here. Desirable metropolitan areas is a tougher road, whereas in rural areas there are jobs a plenty.

 

[SurfingDoctor]

Texas sucks…

 

[GoSpursGo]

Texas sucks…

View attachment 355021

Banned

 

[GoSpursGo]

Are you speaking in terms of specific geographic areas or do your statements refer to the nation as a whole ? Are you aware of pockets where pediatricians are having trouble finding full time work ?

Nation as a whole. In general, jobs are in shorter supply in major metro areas, not just for peds. But I would argue for gen peds you CAN find jobs, you just have to compromise in terms of either salary, number of patients seen, or both.

 

[Oso]

Gen peds job market took a hit with COVID, as many clinics were not seeing as many patients as usual so stopped hiring. This is the main reason people from my program had to be more flexible when searching for jobs, but in the end my class and the class above mine all found jobs in their geographic area of interest.

Yes, tougher market in popular metro areas but that’s the case with every specialty. Overall I think it’s a good career with plenty of flexibility for those who enjoy the work.

 

[DO2015CA]

Texas sucks…

View attachment 355021

Texans love Texas. Don’t go there lol.

 

[SurfingDoctor]

Texans love Texas. Don’t go there lol.

My extended family is from Texas and I married an Texan. Jokes on me...

 

[DO2015CA]

My extended family is from Texas and I married an Texan. Jokes on me...

Hahaha as is my family.

 

[GoSpursGo]

Texans love Texas. Don’t go there lol.

Also banned.

 

[SurfingDoctor]

Texas sucks…

View attachment 355021

Hmm... this was sadly prophetic.