A couple of points:
The original assertion that non-EU citizens cannot continue in Ireland is, at best, conjecture and certainly historically false. After medical school Irish junior doctors enter a general internship year determined by a non-binding process similar to the match running in June of the graduating year. These internships are by-and-large similar in structure and desirablility. The intern year is a one year program and it is--and always has been--open to non-EU citizens who have gone to medical school in Ireland. However, in a change beginning with last years match, spots are given to non-EU citizens only after all EU citizens applying have been placed. Prior to this, internship jobs were given by the graduating medical school, and as such, guaranteed for all graduates of that medical school. That is no longer the case as the internship year administration has been evolved to a central authority. That being said, all applicants from Irish medical schools who applied for intern year jobs last year matched. Many Canadians studying in Ireland are planning to stay in Ireland and relying on this trend to continue. There is some element of conjecture in this assumption, but there is little evidence to suggest it is unfounded as there has been an annoucemnet from the Irish medical authority that there will be an increase in Internship posts this year over last.
Information about that the Internship year can be found here:
http://www.medicalcouncil.ie/FAQ/Ju...ernship-registration/Internship-Training.html
My second point comes from a presentation made by the CaRMS CEO in Ireland last year that referenced a 67% Canadian match success rate. 67% of Canadians studying in Ireland, and remaining in CaRMS through the full match process (i.e. not including pre-match withdrawls, US matches, or scramble matches) matched in 2008. Therefore the total number of Canadians who applied in that year was 41*(1/0.67)=61. Though I cannot provide an external reference for these data as CaRMS has not posted this statistic, it has been widely mentioned on this forum, and this number grossely correlates with my own 'imbedded' observations.
Finally, it should be noted that the data may change substantially for the 2010/11 census (and it is unfortunate that these data are not yet available). That year showed a large increase in the number of Canadians graduating from Ireland and--subjectively--the number of matches. Prior to that year the trend of numbers of Canadians studying in Ireland was relatively flat. Of course, that is also a subjective analysis as this is the first year CaRMS has investigated how many students are studying abroad.
My only substantive conclusion here is that it may be futile to try to correlate the 2005-2009 years of match data with the current and future graduating class sizes in Ireland, as BarryK has done, given the two year gap in temporally over-lapping points. Both data sets have varied in a non-linear fashion and the resulting projections are flawed to the point of uselessness. Any analysis that attempts to trend this data runs into the confounding variables of non-trendable changes in available IMG spots, yearly changes Irish medical school enrollment, and variable student preferences in geographical location of their post graduate trainning exaggerated by the small sample size. For example, as mentioned in the CaRMS CSA report, in Ireland the intention to return to Canada decreases as a student progresses towards graduation and only 7% of students express "low-probability of matching" as the primary reason for this preference. Subjectively, the most common motivation that I've witnessed is romatic attachment.
The only useful data point that relates to your likelihood of matching is the one from CaRMS I mentioned above. I think that reserving judgement on the likelihood of match success until the publication of at least the 2010/11 CAPER report (and better yet the 2011/2012 when there is actual overlap) would be wise. Regardless of errors and variables, going to Ireland is a gamble and I certainly think trying pubically to figure out the odds and real risks involved (especially for non-EU citizens) is laudable. However, the available data doesn't help...yet.
I would also mention as a point of pride (and a tacit acknowledgment of my bias), that of those RCSI students who publicly declared an intention to match in Canada, 29, or 100%, of them did match in Canada.