try the step 2 CK score estimator

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marie15

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found this site a while back. interesting. it estimates your score by inputing your progressin different question banks and NBME scores....

my score was very close....

www.medfriends.org/step2_estimator/index.htm
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Do you know other people who have used this tool with high accuracy as well? It seemed VERY generous, as my NBME mini tests were 280 and 290 which, according to their chart art 156 and 158, respectively on Step 2-CK. That's failing miserably. I put my scores into this link above and it predicted 187 and 192. I have trouble believing the 187 and 192 as they seem a bit too high, though I think the scores in the 150s are a bit low! Thanks for the info!
 
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Has anyone had the problem of this Step 2-CK score estimator OVER-estimating their actual score? While inaccuracy is not the desired quality, it's nice that scores tend to be UNDER-estimated, quite significantly!
 
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manning18 said:
Has anyone had the problem of this Step 2-CK score estimator OVER-estimating their actual score? While inaccuracy is not the desired quality, it's nice that scores tend to be UNDER-estimated, quite significantly!
Click to expand...

That's good to know!
 
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sophiejane said:
As much as I hate to agree with Pompacil, I have to on this one, at least for my score.

They predicted a 204 based on UW of 55%. I got a 230.
Click to expand...

that's good though. it undrestimated your performance. i'd be curious to see how this works on people compared with their Real exam scores.
 
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I've used it

for nbme #1, the score I got from the nbme was like a 174, I think this site said I'd get like a 192.

form #3, I got a 450? it told me I'd have a score just a bit higher

took #2 yesterday and got a 520, ~222? it said I'd get like a 224.

UW I avg'd 59%, it equated to 207? I'm averaging 69% on kaplan qban, its like a 211 or something.

the scores are way off on qbank though. if you put in like 72 or 74 and the scores jump into the 220 range.
 
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well i used it...but to see how accurate it would be in predicting my step 1 score from last year..here's what i found:
based on my nbme, i should have scored 6 points higher than what i actually got.
based on my kaplan qbank, i should have scored 3 points higher.
so it's not tooo off, i guess.

but then again, this predictability is all based on what people have submitted to the system and a bell curve has been made on people's experiences...not too reliable at all if you ask me.
 
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hey pompacil and scooter,
what was the correlation with your nbmes and step 2? was that a stronger one than the ck predictor?
 
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For step 2 ck it estimated about 25 points lower than my actual score...so, don't put too much faith in it...
 
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According to the Score Estimator, I SHOULD be at peace knowing that I finally passed Step 2 CK...based on UW, a 224, and Kaplan Sim, a 212. But I am somewhat skeptical of predictions, because exam day is never the same thing as doing Qs in your own comfort zone. Still waiting for the verdict.
 
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Pompacil said:
I didn't take them.

Based on what I heard, they are a really good predictor. Maybe the best.
Click to expand...

I really hope they dont correlate that much... nbme kicked my ass a few weeks back... ill let uu know when i find out firsthand
 
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the step 1 predictor was closer than the step2 predictor... but that could just be due to the number of submissions.. who knows...

i wouldn't stake my life on these scores... but it's just an estimator.. it's not an exact science... hence, take it with a grain of salt.
 
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sophiejane said:
As much as I hate to agree with Pompacil, I have to on this one, at least for my score.

They predicted a 204 based on UW of 55%. I got a 230.
Click to expand...

That is what my overall average is on UW so far (55%), but I just took NBME for#3 and got a 191(400). So if this NBMEs are as accurate as they were for STEP 1 then I am almost borderline...it could go either way :( on test day. That sucks!
 
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Finally I got my step 2 CK score back today. I got a 201 which is lower than what I got on step 1(205). I didn't think I was going to do worse than Step 1 nor was I expecting that low of a score .I don't know what happened to me on test day. Anyway, here are some of my numbers:

NBME#1 350(176) before starting to study
NBME#3 400(191) 12 days before the test
NBME#2 490(215) 6 days before the test
USMLE world 57% overall(did all Q's) All random blocks
Used FA only as a study source

I guess I am one of those few people for which the NBME overpredicted the actual score.
 
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uw 61% predicted 217 or something like that
usmle free practice predicted 218 or something very similar to uw

actual score 20 points higher than both. underestimation is good, but now that you've read this, is it really?
 
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goldengate said:
Exam day is never the same thing as doing Qs in your own comfort zone. Still waiting for the verdict.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Exam day is never the same as practice, even if you simulate practice sessions really precisely.

I seem to do better on test day than practice based on MCAT and Step I and II. I ended up doing really well on Step II, OK on Step I. The NBME exam I took for Step I predicted a very low pass. Dont remember QBank or the practice session or numbers specifically.

For Step II, the estimator underestimated my score by 15 to 31 pts based on different scores and estimates.

I feel like UW was really helpful for learning but one of the worse predictors, mostly because I was using it to study not to "predict" so I approached questions as a "hmm, I should look at this explanation" or "I know this" more than focusing on how to guess or whatever.
 
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for the score estimator, are people putting in their overall average from UW, or just the average from the last six random 46-question blocks?

if you're doing your overall average (which would probably be skewed down) then that might explain why the estimator is underpredicting.

any other thoughts on this?
 
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for step two guys just stay away from its predictions...
30 points lower.. :eek: infact i was about to postpone my test date..

for step one its still better off!!!
 
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I had that problem with the step I estimator. over estimated my score by almost 20 points.... dont know about with step 2 though
 
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