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Wow, didnt realize that even IM had doubled the applications per capita in under a decade.Okay, so you can actually predict how much you have to limit applications using the ERAS data. Take Internal Medicine for example. If we look at the ERAS data from 2010-2020 and use multivariate regression, we get the following equation:
Applications/Program = 0.02 * (Total Applicants) + 13.32 * (Applications/Person)
So, if we limited IM applications from 40 -> 20, that would reduce total applications from 780.4 -> 514. That's a big difference, but residencies will still need to use screening measures to cut down the application load because of the huge number of medical students applying.
For orthopedics, it's different, the equation is:
Applications/Program = 0.01 * (Total Applicants) + 7.37 * (Applications/Person)
So, if you cut the number of applicants/person from 80->30 programs, that would result in 550->230 applications/program on average, which is actually pretty manageable and could work. Only issue is there is a lot of variability right now with some programs receiving only 200 apps and others receiving like 800, so I can see applicants receiving more interviews but falling much farther down their match lists, and some less desirable programs not matching at all.
If this trend continues we would be over 1000 applications per program in just a few years.