Since you're going after me directly, I'm curious as to what you feel is an inflammatory opinion. Strong opinions, sure, I'm an opinionated person. What is your data that the job market this year is not as bad as we're saying? People have posted the resident reported outcomes on the job hunt in recent history. I don't feel that I'm even the strongest opinion on my side of the 'status of the job market' debate - I see places like UCSF, Yale, etc. that at least have jobs posted to the ASTRO website. Not going to comment on whether those are really available, or if they already have a candidate in mind, etc. There are academic jobs out there, but it's in low numbers. The number of PGY-5s is at an all time high. There's not going to magically be more jobs than there were 5 years ago. Supply and Demand kinetics.
I'm less interested in year to year variation (so fine, I'll agree with you, that maybe this year is better than last year), than general trends. Current MS-4s have to think about what the reality of the situation is FIVE years from now. I know when I was a MS4, ~4-5 years ago, the job market was not as bad as it is now. Hopefully that isn't a discussion point either. With no programs planning on decreasing their number of residency positions, do I think that the job market is going to bounce back to be any better 4-5 years from now?
As to the bolded - ah yes, work hard(er than all the other residents), distinguish yourself (from all of the rest of the residents in the rat race trying to do the same thing through retrospective chart reviews and database analyses) and have a great life.
To clarify my position - I still think this is the best field in all of medicine. I know others may not agree with me, but that's my opinion. If I was a MS4 I would go into this again as well because this field made me more interested in going to work than literally any other field in medicine. Not to say I would rather not be a doctor than a radiation oncologist, but the love I have for this field was not similar to anything else when I was a medical student, and despite all of these non-clinical issues as a resident, the clinical work still gets me up in the morning without dread. It's not a chore for me to read the (newly published) important articles in this field.
That's not to say that all medical students considering applying for Rad Onc have that mentality. There are some that have a 250-260+ Step 1, like a couple of fields relatively equally, and are weighing lifestyle, job market, location, etc. If I was a medical student who was genuinely 50-50 between say Urology (just an example) and Rad Onc (and despite the lifestyle differences, I'm sure there are a decent number of "Surgery vs RadOnc/Radiology" medical students out there), I would go into Urology in a heart-beat given that I would likely have a better pick of where I wanted to work, with greater ease, when I got out of residency.
I think the concept of anybody making a blanket statement like "DO NOT BECOME A RADIATION ONCOLOGIST" is hyperbole, because it ignores people's preferences, their wants, their desires. But not everything about this field is roses and doves, and I honestly think that despite all of the things going for most rad oncs (lifestyle, no call, salary, etc.) there are negatives that medical students have a right to know about.