Radiation Oncology Applicants Up 3% year over year

[2021Doctor]

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[Sheldor]

Who knew that CMS attempting to destroy a specialty would increase interest in the field!

 

[medgator]

People trying to btfd on a penny stock. Will end badly

 

[Lamount]

Job market concerns are just one factor in choosing a specialty, but not the only. When I was a med student, I had several friends going into path and CT surg, knowing they wouldn’t be swimming in job offers. Despite the structural issues in our specialty, rad onc is still a pretty awesome gig. That’s enough for some folks

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

Ok, I think there's enough data now that we can build a formula to predict number of applicants in a given year:

Something like: Number of Applicants in Future Year = [# applicants previous year] + [# new grad unemployment and fellowship] + [100 * % cuts in RadOnc reimbursement]

Although I guess that formula is a little off, because applying it would give us: 195 + 10 + 3 = 208 applicants, which is an estimated increase of 6.25%.

Perhaps the final step in the formula is divide by 2? Someone call Mack Roach for me, he's pretty good about this.

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

Job market concerns are just one factor in choosing a specialty, but not the only. When I was a med student, I had several friends going into path and CT surg, knowing they wouldn’t be swimming in job offers. Despite the structural issues in our specialty, rad onc is still a pretty awesome gig. That’s enough for some folks

Very true. It would be great if the academic leadership would adopt this tone - which Thomas Eichler had to start last year with "just get A job".

A few folks took up that banner, but not enough.

 

[TheWallnerus]

Ok, I think there's enough data now that we can build a formula to predict number of applicants in a given year:

View attachment 345707

View attachment 345709

Something like: Number of Applicants in Future Year = [# applicants previous year] + [# new grad unemployment and fellowship] + [100 * % cuts in RadOnc reimbursement]

Although I guess that formula is a little off, because applying it would give us: 195 + 10 + 3 = 208 applicants, which is an estimated increase of 6.25%.

Perhaps the final step in the formula is divide by 2? Someone call Mack Roach for me, he's pretty good about this.

We predict 215 next year, however with more data I am fully prepared to attempt a third order polynomial

 

[Ray D. Ayshun]

Sometimes, if you're honest with yourself, finding any residency spot is the job search. Whatever happens after that is gravy. It's clear from hearing about some of the apps in the last few years that this type of candidate makes up a not insubstantial part of the pool.

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

So what you're saying is...I should cover the pelvic nodes?

 

[Lamount]

We predict 215 next year, however with more data I am fully prepared to attempt a third order polynomial

If you use a fifth order polynomial, it will fit perfectly 🤔

 

[TheWallnerus]

Who knew that CMS attempting to destroy a specialty would increase interest in the field!

People trying to btfd on a penny stock. Will end badly

Job market concerns are just one factor in choosing a specialty, but not the only. When I was a med student, I had several friends going into path and CT surg, knowing they wouldn’t be swimming in job offers. Despite the structural issues in our specialty, rad onc is still a pretty awesome gig. That’s enough for some folks

Radiation oncology has a market cap, and this market cap is not changing over time... there is very clear data for this. In fact it seems to shrink a little year by year; like, maybe, -1% max year by year. (This is in stark contrast with med onc e.g.) Now whether we will see that minor shrinkage continue year after year is another story. But be that as it may, we are increasing the number of shares in "the company" (the company = the whole of rad onc) every year. The shareholders are large investment houses (MSKCC, MDACC, maybe even GenesisCare?), and individuals like you and me as minor shareholders; and some rad oncs work at the investment houses and get nice perks and security and other people after interning at the investment houses which offer nice training programs decide to go out own their own (private practice) and see if they can beat the market. But nevertheless the number of stock shares? That shows CLEAR signs of growth. The various major stockholders (think: large academic places) actually want to keep this trend going because they have figured out over time how to horde more and more of the shares of the stock. They can send the value of the shares down but outpace this by buying and keeping more stock. So from their viewpoint, they continue to increase in value even though rad onc share prices go down (due to increasing supply of shares but stagnant demand). Minor small shareholders will be squeezed out over time, or just continue to see smaller and smaller share values. Eventually it will not make sense for any individual med student to buy into the market unless they have some sort of inside information and/or a promise to stay on at the large investment house. The large investment houses will continue to do well into the foreseeable future.

TL;DR There will always be unsavvy and uninformed investors in any market, rad onc is a very affordable stock right now, and those selling rad onc shares are adjusting to the market and stepping up their game a bit

 

[radiation]

Radiation oncology has a market cap, and this market cap is not changing over time... there is very clear data for this. In fact it seems to shrink a little year by year; like, maybe, -1% max year by year. (This is in stark contrast with med onc e.g.) Now whether we will see that minor shrinkage continue year after year is another story. But be that as it may, we are increasing the number of shares in "the company" (the company = the whole of rad onc) every year. The shareholders are large investment houses (MSKCC, MDACC, maybe even GenesisCare?), and individuals like you and me as minor shareholders; and some rad oncs work at the investment houses and get nice perks and security and other people after interning at the investment houses which offer nice training programs decide to go out own their own (private practice) and see if they can beat the market. But nevertheless the number of stock shares? That shows CLEAR signs of growth. The various major stockholders (think: large academic places) actually want to keep this trend going because they have figured out over time how to horde more and more of the shares of the stock. They can send the value of the shares down but outpace this by buying and keeping more stock. So from their viewpoint, they continue to increase in value even though rad onc share prices go down (due to increasing supply of shares but stagnant demand). Minor small shareholders will be squeezed out over time, or just continue to see smaller and smaller share values. Eventually it will not make sense for any individual med student to buy into the market unless they have some sort of inside information and/or a promise to stay on at the large investment house. The large investment houses will continue to do well into the foreseeable future.

TL;DR There will always be unsavvy and uninformed investors in any market, rad onc is a very affordable stock right now, and those selling rad onc shares are adjusting to the market and stepping up their game a bit

Do we really know the market cap accurately though? Varian revenue is growing

https://cdn0.scrvt.com/0e46935d037de4ec3888566275864b37/efee6c8cfd681257/a2ea5a458da4/Q4_FY2021_SHL_Quarterly_Statement.pdf

And what are the proton people expecting with APM? Why would want to build a new center knowing what the landscape might look like post APM (most of these places are NOT on the PPS exempt list)

Find A Proton Center

www.proton-therapy.org

 

[TheWallnerus]

Do we really know the market cap accurately though? Varian revenue is growing

https://cdn0.scrvt.com/0e46935d037de4ec3888566275864b37/efee6c8cfd681257/a2ea5a458da4/Q4_FY2021_SHL_Quarterly_Statement.pdf

View attachment 345713

And what are the proton people expecting with APM? Why would want to build a new center knowing what the landscape might look like post APM (most of these places are NOT on the PPS exempt list)

View attachment 345714

Find A Proton Center

www.proton-therapy.org

Need to think of a way to meld revenue of these companies, and all the money coming into rad onc from payors, into the total market cap metric. I would put a little more emphasis on payors’ payments versus rad onc companies’ revenues. (Civco just gave up on RT I think?) Before COVID, and I read the Varian annual reports a lot, the majority of growth was coming from outside the U.S.:

The below was a pretty strong proviso versus previous years; I had this in mind when I heard Varian had sold to Siemens.

 

[radiation]

Need to think of a way to meld revenue of these companies, and all the money coming into rad onc from payors, into the total market cap metric. I would put a little more emphasis on the former than the latter. Before COVID, and I read the Varian annual reports a lot, the majority of growth was coming from outside the U.S.:

The below was a pretty strong proviso versus previous years; I had this in mind when I heard Varian had sold to Siemens.

Point taken but in 2019 the north american market grew by 8% in the largest vendor. So its hard to reconcile that number and say the total market cap is stable or has been going down in recent years. It may very well happen with APM, but the current data from vendors does not seem to support a flat or negative cap currently (future is a different story).

 

[TheWallnerus]

Point taken but in 2019 the north american market grew by 8% in the largest vendor. So its hard to reconcile that number and say the total market cap is stable or has been going down in recent years. It may very well happen with APM, but the current data from vendors does not seem to support a flat or negative cap currently (future is a different story).

Well again I am saying look at what market cap is in rad onc in a much more imaginative (and strange, and financially not strictly correct) fashion. I am asking what is the value of rad onc. The entire specialty is the company, and our worth is the amount of money coming into rad onc each year. (ASTRO just said if APM goes through there will be 25% less money coming into rad onc from CMS over the last ten years e.g., so clearly we have some slack picked up by private insurance. Or else I don’t think you would see Americans buying as much from Varian.)

 

[medgator]

Point taken but in 2019 the north american market grew by 8% in the largest vendor. So its hard to reconcile that number and say the total market cap is stable or has been going down in recent years. It may very well happen with APM, but the current data from vendors does not seem to support a flat or negative cap currently (future is a different story).

Stock market is forward looking. Varian sold itself to seimens for a reason. APM will ensure that most of its growth will only be accelerated outside the US market

 

[TheWallnerus]

Stock market is forward looking. Varian sold itself to seimens for a reason. APM will ensure that most of its growth will only be accelerated outside the US market

Civco somewhat surprisingly just completely got out of rad onc. Another (questionable) analogy on this may be that we are facing a set number of bitcoins in rad onc and Varian is our NVIDIA. I have done very well with NVIDIA!

 

[medgator]

Civco somewhat surprisingly just completely got out of rad onc. Another (questionable) analogy on this may be that we are facing a set number of bitcoins in rad onc and Varian is our NVIDIA. I have done very well with NVIDIA!

Elekta does make a pretty good Intel maybe too.... Kinda blah, trying to compete on price etc? Analogy falls apart with AMD, they basically pull off a Lazarus where accuray has not

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Who knew that CMS attempting to destroy a specialty would increase interest in the field!

are we attracting fungi/fun guys/gals who love moldy bread to the field? I guess some people really love those breadlines.

 

[Gfunk6]

are we attracting fungi/fun guys/gals who love moldy bread to the field? I guess some people really love those breadlines.

It's ok, they will eat around the moldy parts, as predicted by lyltothend who is our resident Kwisatz Haderach