So first you say that your article is because you know the people likely to fail in the Caribbean. Followed by "you cant predict anything in the Caribbean." You continue to contradict yourself. You can't possibly predict who will succeed and who will fail. You can only look at past predictors as the only tangible evidence. I failed and barely got into SGU. Had failed out of college with sub 2.0. By the grace of my interview I was given a chance at the CFP program. I have >90th percentile board scores. Nobody could predict that. SGU provides and opportunity and people can take it or leave it. It seems like your article will go something like this... med school is hard. So don't expect everything to be handed to you when your feet touch the island sand.
As for your friend who was wait listed. I think that is a silly move on his part. He was borderline and instead of spending a year to buff his application he went carib and seriously undermined his residency options ... unless he wanted to be FP, psych, or hospitalist than perhaps I can see some reasoning.
Sure not every SGU student is the grain of sand right under the threshold of SGU acceptance. Just like not every harvard student is the absolute best of the best. Admissions does look at other factors here and there. Diversity is a thing too...
I'm currently on hiatus but I will respond to your post.
LIKELY is a complicated word because the word "likely" is tied in with the idea of risk. As mentioned previously, the student with a 3.0 and 491 is at a high risk for failure. I can't say that they will LIKELY fail but they are certainly taking a huge risk and the likelihood that they will fail is certainly greater than them succeeding unless something dramatic happens because you can't end up with straight C's and a 192 STEP score in the end. Nobody can tell you where that student will end up but unless they change something as soon as they step foot on the island, they are headed for some trouble.
As far as predicting, there are some ways to predict success and I thought I had mentioned that rather clearly in the previous post. My friend interviewed and was ultimately rejected from a US school. Mind you he had the numbers but he's an admitted introvert. He's does not have the dynamic personality as I've seen of students at US med schools. My understanding was that he also had very little clinical experience even though his father is a doctor. Anyway, he scored between 230 and 240 on both STEP 1 and 2 and I won't list his numbers but his STEP1 was higher. Got his first interview one week after STEP 2 scores came out and was already verbally offered another IM spot in another program by a director during rotations. He's interested in IM and then specializing in HEM/ONC perhaps. I also questioned his decision but he said the gap year would be a waste for him. Essentially he walked into SGU with some serious swag as he knew he was better than that program. Someone like him WILL SUCCEED and you can even put money on that if you wish. He's got the academic background to make it through that type of hell and to adjust to whatever they throw at him. Without listing his grades, he was well above the 82 that I recommend students maintain. That however is not the profile of your typical SGU student. This guy was deficient in the soft skills not the hard skills so-to-speak. I'm sure as a fourth year, he has more than made up for that deficiency.
As far as this -->
It seems like your article will go something like this... med school is hard. So don't expect everything to be handed to you when your feet touch the island sand.
There is a blog by a girl named Tameer and I think her blog follows your description.
I think she makes some good points but her failure was a result of her not being ready for the program and not giving 100%. I think she admits it too. I'm not coming from that point-of-view. My article will be a little more in depth than that. It's not going to tell people not to go the Caribbean like she does. I mean I'm not really saying that am I. It will be an article which will clearly define the intended audience and then will be written in a way for the prospective student to ask some SERIOUS questions regarding why they want to make this decision and if this is the right decision for them. I will encourage students with strong stats to reconsider applying to a US program and I will encourage students with very poor stats to seriously reconsider the decision to study medicine. Having said all of that, and the reader still wants to apply, I will then describe how my experience on the island differed from what I was told before I made it onto the island. All the things essentially that the open-houses, webinars, and orientations somehow fail to bring up.
Like I said before, we have basic sciences and clinical medicine. I don't like calling Caribbean medical schools medical schools for the first two years at least. I just like to call them basic sciences. It's classroom-oriented work with a sprinkling of some watered-down clinical medicine. Real clinical medicine with real patients comes AFTER the basic sciences part is successfully completed. I think any Caribbean medical student should be proud to say that they are a "medical student" once they are in clinicals. Tell me, how did you look at those term 1 students when you were a term 5? I know you didn't see them as equals.
I believe that GPA and MCAT scores are more relevant to the basic sciences not STEP 1. I don't believe there is any correlation in the sense that a certain GPA and MCAT score will predict how you handle medical school courses but I do believe GPA and MCAT can demonstrate how hard you are willing to work. In that sense, yeah, maybe there is a correlation with basic sciences performance since we have nothing else to go by with regards to academics. Regarding STEP1, basic sciences is a glorified STEP1 review course that encompasses 20 months -2 years; that's essentially all it is. Any prep you will need for STEP1 will occur during this time. It would be preposterous to assume that your undergrad lol would prepare you for the USMLE. If you're undergrad could prepare you for the USMLE then basic sciences should theoretically not have grades, it should just be one big, giant relaxed seminar. But that's not the case right, so no medical school has truly 100% confidence in your undergraduate academic profile. Seriously, think of it like that. Might as well call it SGU STEP1 PREP or MUA STEP1 PREP during your time on the island because that's what it is. It ain't med school in the literal sense. The clinical stuff is just there for show to tease you a bit.
So in summary, if you're coming in with that 3.0 and 491, SGU will gladly tell you that you can do it but I'll be there to remind them that it's a little more complicated than that. But again, nothing can be predicted so it all comes down to how much are you willing to risk. My friend is a zero-risk candidate, some people are low-risk, and the rest are high-risk. My guess is that most people at all these schools collectively fall under high-risk. What's even scarier is people who apply and are accepted to no-name schools with numbers much lower than that. I'd argue that there is an ethical problem with the school at that point.