Predict me please!

[bigfootisreal]

Hi guys, I am taking step in 2 days trying to get an idea of where I stand going into it! Goal is 240+ but I wouldn't be upset with anything between 230-240.

NBME 20 (baseline): 211

UWSA1 (4 weeks): 245

NBME 21 (3 weeks): 217

NBME 24 (2 weeks): 225

NBME 18 (1 week): 228

UWSA2 (4 days): 241

Free 120 (3 days): 84%

Thanks in advance everyone!

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[Phloston]

The discrepancy between your UWSAs and NBMEs says you need to calibrate to the NBME question style. UWSA1 notoriously over-predicts at scores <250-260. UWSA2 is a better gauge in my experience with students. Your likely result is going to be around the average of your NBMEs. You've steadily increased, so I'd say your NBME 24 and 18 are most reflective. Who am I to speculate about what you'll score, but objectively looking at your numbers and attempting to extrapolate, I'd be thinking high-220s - low-230s. Prove me wrong though, don't over-think on the real deal, and score above your UWSAs.

 

[TenaciousX]

233-243. I had same uwsa1 as you 4 weeks out. had 234 and both 24 and 18. got 249 on uwsa2 and 87% on free 120. step 1 = 240. felt like i underperformed on test day. GL