Pay down higher interest fixed-rate loans vs (currently) lower interest variable-rate loans

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TooMuchResearch

i'm goin' to Kathmandu...
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The SO and I have an interesting pile of loans that include some fixed-rate federal loans (sub and unsub) and some variable rate private loans. The rate on the private loans is currently lower than the fixed-rate federal loans. Conventional wisdom, or math if you prefer, says to pay down higher rate loans first. I don't think the conventional math takes economic forecasting into account.

Does anyone with greater powers of economic prediction care to entertain me with thoughts on the 3-10 year outlook for interest rates?

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My wife and I are in a similar situation--except we have one fixed rate private loan too (that happens to have a higher rate than our federal loans). We're paying that one off first, and then our variable rate private loans, then federal. Even though our variable rate private loans are between 2-4%, I remember when I first took one of those now 4.5% loans out for post-bac and it was was originally 9.5%. Ouch. So what worries me is those rates going back up. Which I think they will--the economy has been in a slump for a long time, so we've benefited from low private interest rates, but as the economy pick up those rates are certainly going to go back up--my fear is they will go up even higher than they were originally. In addition, the federal loans have a lot of protection built in, in terms of repayment plans (IBR/PAYE) and loan forgiveness (who knows if it'll stick around--seems like the gov't is proposing to cap PSLF).

So that's my thinking--pay off private loans first, then federal. Of course, we're doing IBR as well, so that we get the capitalization benefits, credit towards forgiveness, etc., so we're not completely ignoring the federal loans. We're just putting extra money towards those private loans.
 
That was my thought, too. If paying off loans, put it towards variable rates, even if currently lower than fixed rates.

Then again, some would advise simply trying to pay off loan interest in residency and focus other money towards Roth IRA, 403b w/ match, etc.
 
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That was my thought, too. If paying off loans, put it towards variable rates, even if currently lower than fixed rates.

Then again, some would advise simply trying to pay off loan interest in residency and focus other money towards Roth IRA, 403b w/ match, etc.

If my program offered a 403b with match, I'd absolutely contribute up to the maximum they match, at least assuming it still let me have enough to meet my IBR payments. I'd prioritize IBR to take advantage of all the capitalization/subsidy/potential forgiveness, then the matching 403b, then either private debt or the Roth IRA.

This year my wife and I don't have enough to contribute to a Roth IRA, so I really don't know a ton about them, other than residency is a great time to max them out. But in general I think it's ideal to be both paying off some student loans and also putting something away for retirement. Hopefully someone with more knowledge can chime in regarding the Roth IRA.

Now, if my wife and I had enough money on the side to pay off all our private loans within 1-3 years if needed, then I'd pay off the higher-rate federal loans first. That way we'd accrue less interest, but in the event interest rates started skyrocketing, we could pay them off quickly if needed. When I'm an attending we could absolutely do that (probably within a year), but my wife makes very little, so we don't have that flexibility right now, and unless she gets a high paying job when we move for PGY2, we won't have that flexibility for 3.5 years (4.5 if I do a fellowship), by which time interest rates may be quite a bit higher and my private variable rates may very well be up to 7% (though I hope rates stay low for some time). But our current plan also has all our private debt being paid off by the end of residency, barring unforeseen circumstances.
 
If my program offered a 403b with match, I'd absolutely contribute up to the maximum they match, at least assuming it still let me have enough to meet my IBR payments. I'd prioritize IBR to take advantage of all the capitalization/subsidy/potential forgiveness, then the matching 403b, then either private debt or the Roth IRA.

This year my wife and I don't have enough to contribute to a Roth IRA, so I really don't know a ton about them, other than residency is a great time to max them out. But in general I think it's ideal to be both paying off some student loans and also putting something away for retirement. Hopefully someone with more knowledge can chime in regarding the Roth IRA.

Now, if my wife and I had enough money on the side to pay off all our private loans within 1-3 years if needed, then I'd pay off the higher-rate federal loans first. That way we'd accrue less interest, but in the event interest rates started skyrocketing, we could pay them off quickly if needed. When I'm an attending we could absolutely do that (probably within a year), but my wife makes very little, so we don't have that flexibility right now, and unless she gets a high paying job when we move for PGY2, we won't have that flexibility for 3.5 years (4.5 if I do a fellowship), by which time interest rates may be quite a bit higher and my private variable rates may very well be up to 7% (though I hope rates stay low for some time). But our current plan also has all our private debt being paid off by the end of residency, barring unforeseen circumstances.


I ripped this out of one of WhiteCoatInvestor's blog posts (http://whitecoatinvestor.com/):

1) Pay off high interest debt. Any credit cards or consumer debt at 8% or higher should be paid off ASAP. Honestly you should have never accumulated this. Live like a resident until it is gone.
2) Invest in tax-protected accounts. If you are a resident max out your personal and spousal Roth IRAs. If an attending, max out your 401K, SEP-IRA, HSA and any other retirement account that allows you full marginal tax rate deductions.
3) Pay off non-deductible loans between 5% and 8%. These include most current student loans.
4) Consider investing in other accounts that offer a tax break, such as 529s (kid’s college accounts), UGMAs, and backdoor Roth IRAs if your circumstances merit.
5) Invest in risky assets in a taxable account (stock mutual funds or investment properties).
6) Pay off loans with after-tax rates of 3%-5%. These include most mortgages.
7) Pay off loans with after-tax rates below 3%.
8) Invest in safe assets in a taxable account such as CDs, bonds, and savings accounts. If these types of assets return to historic norms (4-5% returns) instead of their current 1-2% returns, then it is okay to invest in these prior to paying off very low interest debt.


I think while in residency, it might still be good to at least meet the interest payments on >6% student loans before contributing to any retirement accounts without matching (i.e. Roth IRA). So to modify WhiteCoat's list a bit, below 1) I would contribute to any employer retirement account up to the amount needed for any matching bonus, then cover student loans enough to take care of interest, then move onto the 2) he listed. I might be wrong on this, but I think that is how I will handle it.
 
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