Regarding the quality of applicants, I see no reason to suspect that less qualified students are getting in now. If anything, we have seen an increase in average GPAs and OATs over the past decade. This is anecdotal, but two of the schools I have dealt with have said that last year's admissions cycle was the most competetive they've had. I would guess that this year's is just as competetive, if not more. There are more people applying these days and the new ODs are more and more educated following graduation since the curriculums are often being changed to include the latest technologies and procedures, medicines, and treatments (in anticipation of expansions in scope).
Quantitatively, we can even see that the average GPAs and OAT scores have increased or at least stayed the same between the 2000 and 2008 entering classes (
http://www.opted.org/pdf/profile1.pdf,
http://www.opted.org/pdf/profiles2008.pdf). If you want to see more in between, typing "profile" into the search function of the website will provide links to a few more years (2002, 2005, 2006, 2007 + 2008 PDFs are on the same webpage).
SUNY's entering classes saw a dip but the trend now is positive (
http://www.sunyopt.edu/admissions/od_demographics.shtml). The latest class information printed in a handout but not published there shows the class of 2011 with an average overall GPA of 3.46 (down from 3.51 previously) and pre-req GPA of 3.43 (up from 3.4) and OAT avg 361, up from 341! Berkeley's classes seem to be just as smart as always (
http://spectacle.berkeley.edu/opt_txtpp/admissions/admitprofl.html).
I will admit that opening up 5 more schools on top of our 17 will certainly make space for less qualified candidates. I would be more reserved in making the statement that we are already seeing less qualified applicants than before, or that the extra graduating ODs to come, will be any less competent than the last decade of graduating ODs.
That said, it is also up to the admissions committees to be admitting qualified students. Many ODs don't seem to trust that admissions committees are following through with their charge of admitting the best candidates because of the students who get in under "extenuating circumstances." Although I don't have any experience with being on any admissions board, I have no reason (at least not yet) to believe that any of these students get pity acceptances. Any student not qualified for a program who drops out, only serves to waste a seat for the subsequent years (or to let a transfer student come in). It really is in the school's best interest to accept competent and qualified students, and I'm convinced that there is substance behind an acceptance of a low score applicant.
If the schools do all follow through with their plans to open up, I definitely think that there will be an effect on the economy for the next generation of optometrists. It seems, in my opinion, that the best way to combat whatever negatives we often associate with more schools, is to have more students apply (increased competition for OD programs), and to increase the public's awareness of optometry's role in health and improving problems (systemic disease screening, VT before surgery, learning disorders caused by visual deficits). I think these changes may improve optometry's public image, and hopefully, the demand for its services. An aside--the public needs to be more informed about health and medicine (we have too many people popping antibiotics like candy and too many people relying on surgery rather than healthy living).
Anything said too naive? Please clarify.