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The AMSA magazine last year published a statistic that there was approximately currently a 5% attrition rate, with about a 1.5% leaving for academic reasons, and the remainder leaving for other reasons. So there's just no way the attrition is anything close to 8.4%, unless AAMC and you are including folks going into PhD or joint degree programs who simply don't graduate in 4 years with their class, and folks who otherwise don't complete in 4 years (but will graduate) due to illness or academic reasons or taking research years. In the 80s the number of folks who took research years or did joint degrees was lower, so that may explain the difference in AAMC's numbers -- the attrition rate is probably historically about 5% (both then and now), but the number of people taking longer to graduate may be increasing due to various joint offerings and research options.
I don't know about AMSA, but the source itself is AAMC and I would lean towards it for accuracy. From about mid 90s to now the MD/PhD programs have increased only by about 200 spots, so their effect would not be significant. Nevertheless, this still doesn't matter. Even if AAMC lists how many students graduate for any given year, and not for a given class for however many years it takes to graduate, then the graduates that didn't appear in 2002, for example, would appear in 2003-07. Any other presumption assumes that AAMC is incompetent in its metrics to leave out a large portion of med school graduates just because they took longer to graduate.
Furthermore, just the assumption that significant portion of matriculants take longer to graduate only adds to the shortages of the graduating class, which is the main point. Detailed reasons for the shortage are insignificant.