1. The best analogy to account for the disconnect between "real life" [PGY5s report they are getting decent jobs] and "the internet" [established ROs like me spreading doom and gloom] is a person standing on train tracks with a train chugging towards her miles away. The train will eventually hit and it won't be pretty, but there is time before it hits.
I love ya G, but this is where I disagree. There is no train. Maybe those of you who got out into good PP positions see something coming that will destroy the high salaries of the entrenched groups. But for new or recent grads who will never become technical partners or hang out in academic satellites, how could we get hit by a train? Drop the starting salaries to 200k instead of 300k? Fellowship requirement for a sizeable percentage of new grads? I guess it could happen. Is that a trainwreck?
The disconnect between what you hear in person and what you hear online has two causes in my opinion.
First, as others have posted, academics are under a lot of pressure to stay positive and promote (self promote, promote their department, etc). Residents need to butter up their attendings to get jobs--nobody wants to be the negative one. Remember, it's the 3 "As" in that order! Affable is the first "A"! We've even had PDs on here who post that the most important traits in residents are #1. Personality, #2. Personality, #3. Personality. So... RAH RAH RAH Rad onc is great! Our program is awesome! (Psst: If I keep this up can I has job plz?!) The resident who actually fights back or even says anything not optimistic is labelled as non-affable, and what kind of rad onc has a bad personality? A bad rad onc--duh (3 "As" most important!).
Second, this is a slow downward trajectory. There will not be a year where all of a sudden nobody gets jobs. For the past several years, we have seen gradually increasing difficulties. Every year it gets a bit worse. Every year is a new normal. A few more people have to do fellowship. A few more people work locums or part-time. A few more people end up in rural nowhere for under $300k/year with no way out.
This is metaphor of the frog who boils in the kettle that is being slowly warmed. You put a frog in hot water and it jumps out. You slowly turn up the heat, and the frog boils to death with time because it doesn't realize that the heat is slowly increasing.
That's our specialty. Every year it gets worse. There are good new jobs every year. How many? I don't know. Nobody knows. I think we can all agree that there aren't 200. Let's say for funsies that there are 140 new jobs per year. That's 60 rad oncs who will come on here and post or just change their minds into accepting whatever cards they got dealt in life and move on. Still, there will be some posters like xrthopeful who will come on here and say everything's fine and if only you had just chosen the right residency program, or applied to every open job in the country instead of having any kind of preference, or whatever else, you would have fared as well as them and their buddies who got one of the 140 good jobs.
As long as we keep graduating 200, we will keep producing a percentage of unhappy rad oncs who are undercompensated, part-time employed, stuck in a location they find difficult to tolerate, or are otherwise dissatisfied. And what's undercompensated? I'm sick of these comparisons to "if I had gone into business". Compare yourself to other medical specialties like med onc and radiology where new grads are making 50-100% more and have basically their choice of location.
Just stopping expansion won't fix the supply-demand mismatch. Even if there was some will to fix this problem, it would take a long time to unwind the damage. The specialty needs to contract or the indications need to significantly expand to create demand. There is simply no evidence that radiation utilization will increase. Even oligometastatic disease (which Evilcore constantly denies me for anyway) is a small percentage of possible growth. Cardiac ablations? Also a niche area. Only growth area I've seen lately is in working for insurance companies denying rad onc care--though of course that salary (like locums) is a race to the bottom as rad oncs become further oversupplied.