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i think your chances are reasonable. not guaranteed, but you have a good shot.
your step 1 is good enough to make it through the first pass, your grades are good, and you have a whole year of dedicated research experience. i agree to try and at least get a couple of abstracts out and maybe something submitted, even if you are not the first author. you just do not want that publication section to be blank.
33 is a good number, especially if they are not all the superstar rad onc programs. i would just stress the importance of getting good letters from rad onc doctors that are at least some what known by others. when you do your rotations, choose them carefully. if you have a good home program, get to know them well, they can even be your best shot at a place to match. if you do not have a good program, maybe pick one or two away ones where you have a decent chance of getting in (you should also want to go to these places), and really work your magic during your time there.
good luck!
I can't stress how important letters of rec are. Who you know can take you a long way, especially when they say great things about you. As has been stated many many times before, rad onc is a small field. My application on paper looked similar to the OP. I managed to get a sufficient # of interviews and then match at my #1 because I had strong letters from well-known people in rad onc. You don't have to be a superstar on paper to become a radiation oncologist. I think you need to be reasonably competitive from a numbers standpoint, meet the right folks, do even a modest amount of research, interview well, and have a lot of luck. Point is that you don't need to be #1 in your class, AOA, and have 5 first author pubs. I was far from that! I hope this makes people feel better...