Is there any new data (or old) that correlates preclinical GPA to board scores?

[Rogue42]

I have used the search feature, and it generally comes back with a bunch of threads regarding undergraduate GPA and MCAT based on board pass rates or comes back as "preclinical gpa means nothing."

But past that, is there seriously no correlation between preclinical grades and board score or am I just missing something? Please enlighten me because I would be interested in knowing if a correlation exists!

P.S. I understand 100% that a low preclinical GPA does not mean one cannot make a good board school and equally that preclinical gpa is relatively low on PDs list of things that matter, again simply asking if a correlation exists.

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[Goro]

I have used the search feature, and it generally comes back with a bunch of threads regarding undergraduate GPA and MCAT based on board pass rates or comes back as "preclinical gpa means nothing."

But past that, is there seriously no correlation between preclinical grades and board score or am I just missing something? Please enlighten me because I would be interested in knowing if a correlation exists!

P.S. I understand 100% that a low preclinical GPA does not mean one cannot make a good board school and equally that preclinical gpa is relatively low on PDs list of things that matter, again simply asking if a correlation exists.

Look in Pubmed. It's out there. And I've seen tons of posters ate medical education conferences that report the same thing, not merely from my own school.

To reiterate, pre-clinical GPA is the best predictor of Boards performance, unless one is at a P/F school, OR one is merely skating by and going hog wild on UFAP prep.

 

[deleted645092]

A professor at my school has made the claim after looking at our board stats that students who get below an 80% during our 2nd year courses has a 50% chance of failing boards. If you get above 86% or something you have a 100% chance of passing. The actual scores vary a ton because of different board prep methods but those seem to be our hard cutoffs for a pass vs. Fail at least.

 

[BorntobeDO?]

I think it can predict passing, but in my experience it doesn't always predict high scores.

 

[Epilepsy365]

I think it can predict passing, but in my experience it doesn't always predict high scores.

It predicts high COMLEX scores very well. Not so much for high USMLE scores though.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

It predicts high COMLEX scores very well. Not so much for high USMLE scores though.

Although, I've seen many people with 240+ Step with 400's COMLEX.

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[Deecee2DO]

Ive been searching for this as well. Best I have is the one i snapshotted at my school during our USMLE/COMLEX meeting but its for my school meaning its probably not reproducible data and its super hard to see. Basically for the class of 2020 at my school if you had an 88-94 the avg Step 1 was a 236 and for class of 2021 if you had 87-90 the avg step 1 was a 229 and if you had a 91+ the avg was a 240. There is another study that was done in like 2015 or something that had like several hundred med students from different MD programs and if you had a 85-87 the avg Step 1 was like high 220s low 230s and then if you had a 88-92 avg was like high 230s to low 240 and everything above that was like 250+ from what i recall

 

[Deecee2DO]

Look in Pubmed. It's out there. And I've seen tons of posters ate medical education conferences that report the same thing, not merely from my own school.

To reiterate, pre-clinical GPA is the best predictor of Boards performance, unless one is at a P/F school, OR one is merely skating by and going hog wild on UFAP prep.

Goro in your experience does it show to predict passing vs failing or actual performance ie score ranges (roughly)

 

[Dreamstoo]

Look in Pubmed. It's out there. And I've seen tons of posters ate medical education conferences that report the same thing, not merely from my own school.

To reiterate, pre-clinical GPA is the best predictor of Boards performance, unless one is at a P/F school, OR one is merely skating by and going hog wild on UFAP prep.

I can confirm this. There are outliers and I've doubted Goro honestly in the past about this claim for Step 1 but it is very true for USMLE. COMLEX is a crap shoot, I'm sorry to say and is far harder to predict IMO.

 

[Goro]

Goro in your experience does it show to predict passing vs failing or actual performance ie score ranges (roughly)

Yes to both

 

[BlueBleck]

Our school gives us lines of best fit for diff classes. R^2 is between 0.45 and 0.6. Typically around 0.5 for usmle and around .55 for comlex. Equivocal numbers like that support all stories.

 

[Ho0v-man]

Both take a lot of work and probably a decent chunk of intelligence so it’s no surprise they’d correlate well. But it’s not like the preclinical curriculum is doing a lot on its own. The people who do really well on both are just neurotic enough to care about both.

Don’t buy into the hype that your high preclinical gpa definitely transfers you doing well on boards. There were some top quartile folks in my class who couldn’t even pass a comsae because they only studied for class.

 

[Deecee2DO]

Both take a lot of work and probably a decent chunk of intelligence so it’s no surprise they’d correlate well. But it’s not like the preclinical curriculum is doing a lot on its own. The people who do really well on both are just neurotic enough to care about both.

Don’t buy into the hype that your high preclinical gpa definitely transfers you doing well on boards. There were some top quartile folks in my class who couldn’t even pass a comsae because they only studied for class.

“Studying for your second yr classes is studying for boards” lmao Thats what our school tells us. Well if youre ditching class to study UFAPS second yr then it is yeah but hate to break it to them but class slides second yr wont get you anywhere if you want to do well on Step 1. Crazy how misleading and how little some of these schools know about doing well on boards or they blatantly are telling us to do the opposite. However, for the most part if you were doing really well first year and well second yr then there is a higher likelihood youll well on boards as it seems to correlate just from work ethic and knowledge base

 

[Prehealth1011]

Useless data unless it stratifies the students who are "good test takers" and did nothing during preclinical years vs the rest. I know people who studied the night before each test to solidify a B/C but got a 240+ step score and there's PLENTY of this type in med school. School administration and neurotic med students with their pre-med mentality who bust their butt the whole year for a 4.0 will of course say otherwise. Take whatever data that's out there with a grain of salt. There's no linear relationship here. That's why this topic will probably come up again in a couple of months.

 

[slowthai]

Useless data unless it stratifies the students who are "good test takers" and did nothing during preclinical years vs the rest. I know people who studied the night before each test to solidify a B/C but got a 240+ step score and there's PLENTY of this type in med school. School administration and neurotic med students with their pre-med mentality who bust their butt the whole year for a 4.0 will of course say otherwise. Take whatever data that's out there with a grain of salt. There's no linear relationship here. That's why this topic will probably come up again in a couple of months.

I agree 100%.

 

[Deecee2DO]

Useless data unless it stratifies the students who are "good test takers" and did nothing during preclinical years vs the rest. I know people who studied the night before each test to solidify a B/C but got a 240+ step score and there's PLENTY of this type in med school. School administration and neurotic med students with their pre-med mentality who bust their butt the whole year for a 4.0 will of course say otherwise. Take whatever data that's out there with a grain of salt. There's no linear relationship here. That's why this topic will probably come up again in a couple of months.

Doing well in class first and second year (until you stop studying class stuffs and start with board studying) means you are a good test taker other wise you wouldn't get good grades. What your saying now is that MCAT is a better predictor which is false. If you did well in medical school you have a strong foundation for the the material that will be on Step 1. Maybe the people that are gifted test takers and an insanely high IQ will get a good step score because they are good test takers and are einstein smart but that still doesn't negate the fact that people who do well in their first and second year courses will most likely do well on step 1. They clearly have a good work ethic and they have a strong foundation so theyre going to find a way to do well on Step 1 whatever it takes-typically the mentality of high performing medical students.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

Doing well in class first and second year (until you stop studying class stuffs and start with board studying) means you are a good test taker other wise you wouldn't get good grades. What your saying now is that MCAT is a better predictor which is false. If you did well in medical school you have a strong foundation for the the material that will be on Step 1. Maybe the people that are gifted test takers and an insanely high IQ will get a good step score because they are good test takers and are einstein smart but that still doesn't negate the fact that people who do well in their first and second year courses will most likely do well on step 1. They clearly have a good work ethic and they have a strong foundation so theyre going to find a way to do well on Step 1 whatever it takes-typically the mentality of high performing medical students.

I find it easier to get good class grades (80 or above) than doing well on the practice questions I've been doing so far.

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[Deecee2DO]

I find it easier to get good class grades (80 or above) than doing well on the practice questions I've been doing so far.

Sent from my SM-G973U using SDN mobile

Youll get better at them as you do more and more over the year. I was getting a lot wrong in the beginning and you improve quickly once u get used to how they ask the questions at least for UW, Robbins/Cotran and Rx. UW and Robbins are super challenging

 

[libertyyne]

There are probably dozens of studies that show some positive correlation between preclinical grades and STEP 1 performance. The size of the effect varies in these studies , but is it consistently touted as one of the best predictors overall. Obviously there will be outliers and may not be generalizable universally, but that doesnt mean the correlation still doesnt hold to a statistically significant level. IMO you should be busting your behind in the preclinical years even if it is not for step just to get into the habit of busting your behind. Think of it as training for the marathon that is STEP 1.

 

[JimBone905]

Sorry to intrude on this post but if class rank does make some sort of difference/correlation to step scores, would it be realistic to say that if im around 50%ile in my class then im in an okay place to be for someone who wants IM and possibly subspecialize? I wanna get sround a 220-230 step 1

 

[Deecee2DO]

Sorry to intrude on this post but if class rank does make some sort of difference/correlation to step scores, would it be realistic to say that if im around 50%ile in my class then im in an okay place to be for someone who wants IM and possibly subspecialize? I wanna get sround a 220-230 step 1

Tough to say since its one school and one number. If it means anything, at my school if youre 50%ile (82-85% avg for M1) the mean is about a 220-225 Step 1 score. This is probably not an accurate source to use since youre comparing two different schools so its not standardized and the sample size is like 300 students over 2 different class years. So you can take this with a grain of salt. If youre shooting for IM and arent looking for Mid and top tier uni programs you should be fine and a 220+ should be attainable imo. Work hard though you should be shooting for the best you can possibly get or youll be dissappointed. Do i think ill get a 260+? statistically it is unlikely lol but i sure as heck will be shooting for it. Do i need a 260 to do what i want to do? no, but you cant know too much (its medicine aka you could study for eons and youll still feel like you know nothing)

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

would it be realistic to say that if im around 50%ile in my class then im in an okay place to be for someone who wants IM and possibly subspecialize? I wanna get sround a 220-230 step 1

There are general trends looking at class rank/GPA and board scores, but these are not generalizable at the individual level. There is absolutely no way to know what you will get on boards based on this. You need to work your butt off for boards and whatever you get is what you get as I've seen people with ranks like yours that literally barely pass boards and others who get 250/700s.

 

[JimBone905]

Tough to say since its one school and one number. If it means anything, at my school if youre 50%ile (82-85% avg for M1) the mean is about a 220-225 Step 1 score. This is probably not an accurate source to use since youre comparing two different schools so its not standardized and the sample size is like 300 students over 2 different class years. So you can take this with a grain of salt. If youre shooting for IM and arent looking for Mid and top tier uni programs you should be fine and a 220+ should be attainable imo. Work hard though you should be shooting for the best you can possibly get or youll be dissappointed. Do i think ill get a 260+? statistically it is unlikely lol but i sure as heck will be shooting for it. Do i need a 260 to do what i want to do? no, but you cant know too much (its medicine aka you could study for eons and youll still feel like you know nothing)

I go to wvsom. Our averages are around the same as yours so far. Class size ~200. Yeah i just wanna do IM and still have the ability to go into cardio or hemonc if possible. I would be perfectly happy with IM itself but would still love to specialize of course. I think our avg usmle scores are reported around 220 but not 100% sure. Ill just shoot for as high as possible i guess. Just wanted to know if its doable. Thank you!

 

[Neopolymath]

There are general trends looking at class rank/GPA and board scores, but these are not generalizable at the individual level. There is absolutely no way to know what you will get on boards based on this. You need to work your butt off for boards and whatever you get is what you get as I've seen people with ranks like yours that literally barely pass boards and others who get 250/700s.

I personally feel that DO school is filled with 50+ %ile people who do below average on boards. Idk if it's the lack of advising, type of people who put themselves in this situation, or the preclinical education but I find this far more likely than the SDN preclinical myth of getting 50%ile at a DO school but suddenly getting 85%ile on step 1 against MD students lol. Sure it happens but largely someone who does well in school does well on boards.

The best correlation with doing well on boards is ignoring your school's advice completely and busting your ass doing good questions for nearly the whole two years. Working hard for two years with a purpose is the key. It just so happens that usually one can excel in class as a byproduct.

 

[Deecee2DO]

I personally feel that DO school is filled with 50+ %ile people who do below average on boards. Idk if it's the lack of advising, type of people who put themselves in this situation, or the preclinical education but I find this far more likely than the SDN preclinical myth of getting 50%ile at a DO school but suddenly getting 85%ile on step 1 against MD students lol. Sure it happens but largely someone who does well in school does well on boards.

The best correlation with doing well on boards is ignoring your school's advice completely and busting your ass doing good questions for nearly the whole two years. Working hard for two years with a purpose is the key. It just so happens that usually one can excel in class as a byproduct.

I second completely ignoring your schools advice. Its all bullcrap they tell us. they dont want us to take Step 1 anyways either. At least at my school they discourage students from taking step. I complete stopped studying our lecture material months ago yet still pay tuition to listen to Dr Ryan and Sattar lmao it is what it is. If all youre studying is class material second year until dedicated hits then you are going to be seriously disappointed in your step 1 score. there is so much emphasis on step 1 i dont have time for class material unfortunately the system is all screwed up if we had pass/fail boards id be less stressed and i could actually learn clinical medicine. However a pass/fail step 1 system has its own down sides which could be worse so idk how to even approach the whole dilemma. There are pros and cons to both

 

[JimBone905]

So ive watched a few BnB videos and i love them but im very hesitant to completely stopping lecture stuff...

 

[Deecee2DO]

So ive watched a few BnB videos and i love them but im very hesitant to completely stopping lecture stuff...

You are a first year. Stick to class lecture slides for now and use board resources sparingly for reference if you need. The only board resources that may help you are BnB physio sections and sketchy micro but thats it

 

[JimBone905]

You are a first year. Stick to class lecture slides for now and use board resources sparingly for reference if you need. The only board resources that may help you are BnB physio sections and sketchy micro but thats it

So laying off Zanki until at least the 2nd half of OMS1 wouldn't be a bad idea then? I was planning on starting to unsuspend cards during my winter break.

 

[Deecee2DO]

So laying off Zanki until at least the 2nd half of OMS1 wouldn't be a bad idea then? I was planning on starting to unsuspend cards during my winter break.

dont worry about zanki till second year

 

[Goro]

Useless data unless it stratifies the students who are "good test takers" and did nothing during preclinical years vs the rest. I know people who studied the night before each test to solidify a B/C but got a 240+ step score and there's PLENTY of this type in med school. School administration and neurotic med students with their pre-med mentality who bust their butt the whole year for a 4.0 will of course say otherwise. Take whatever data that's out there with a grain of salt. There's no linear relationship here. That's why this topic will probably come up again in a couple of months.

Your problem is that you're relying on anecdata, and just behind my monitor is a chart showing a strong linear relationship between my students' pre-clinical GPA and Level I scores; and this is for five Classes worth of data.

Try going to a medical education conference and look at real data, like we do.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

I personally feel that DO school is filled with 50+ %ile people who do below average on boards. Idk if it's the lack of advising, type of people who put themselves in this situation, or the preclinical education but I find this far more likely than the SDN preclinical myth of getting 50%ile at a DO school but suddenly getting 85%ile on step 1 against MD students lol. Sure it happens but largely someone who does well in school does well on boards.

The best correlation with doing well on boards is ignoring your school's advice completely and busting your ass doing good questions for nearly the whole two years. Working hard for two years with a purpose is the key. It just so happens that usually one can excel in class as a byproduct.

I definitely agree. People have to be honest with themselves about their performance and abilities too. There is a big difference between someone who busts tail on their class stuff and is right around 50%ile, compared to someone who has gotten 95%+ on tests but decided that getting 85-90% and hammering board stuff is more productive and then being around the 50%ile rank wise. The second one isn't really a true 50%ile student, they just decided to focus on different things.

So laying off Zanki until at least the 2nd half of OMS1 wouldn't be a bad idea then? I was planning on starting to unsuspend cards during my winter break.

dont worry about zanki till second year

That's too late for Zanki. It's too big to do in one year and also do the amount of practice questions you need to do to excel.

 

[NecFasc92]

So laying off Zanki until at least the 2nd half of OMS1 wouldn't be a bad idea then? I was planning on starting to unsuspend cards during my winter break.

Dude. Stop saying OMS. You look like an idiot. Unless you become a chiropractic quack you’re in MEDICAL SCHOOL.

 

[JimBone905]

I definitely agree. People have to be honest with themselves about their performance and abilities too. There is a big difference between someone who busts tail on their class stuff and is right around 50%ile, compared to someone who has gotten 95%+ on tests but decided that getting 85-90% and hammering board stuff is more productive and then being around the 50%ile rank wise. The second one isn't really a true 50%ile student, they just decided to focus on different things.




That's too late for Zanki. It's too big to do in one year and also do the amount of practice questions you need to do to excel.

So I really like BnB, would you recommend I use the lightyear BnB deck instead of Zanki?

 

[Deecee2DO]

I definitely agree. People have to be honest with themselves about their performance and abilities too. There is a big difference between someone who busts tail on their class stuff and is right around 50%ile, compared to someone who has gotten 95%+ on tests but decided that getting 85-90% and hammering board stuff is more productive and then being around the 50%ile rank wise. The second one isn't really a true 50%ile student, they just decided to focus on different things.




That's too late for Zanki. It's too big to do in one year and also do the amount of practice questions you need to do to excel.

Too late? How are people going to understand any of that stuff first year?

 

[JimBone905]

Dude. Stop saying OMS. You look like an idiot. Unless you become a chiropractic quack you’re in MEDICAL SCHOOL.

I mean I see other people posting OMS1 and even emails of students signing off as an OMS1. I didn't realize it was wrong to do so.

 

[NecFasc92]

I mean I see other people posting OMS1 and even emails of students signing off as an OMS1. I didn't realize it was wrong to do so.

Those are people to avoid. You only write that when you speak to admin to appease their sense of superiority

 

[Epilepsy365]

I mean I see other people posting OMS1 and even emails of students signing off as an OMS1. I didn't realize it was wrong to do so.

You will now write MS I, MS II, MS III, or MS IV unless you want to soap into a former AOA FM/IM program.

 

[Neopolymath]

Too late? How are people going to understand any of that stuff first year?

Schools are different but my school was not systems based first year and zanki still made sense to do. It's not like anything we learn is hard. The point is integration of facts from early on. It puts you ahead and allows you to have a chill second year as far as school specific work is concerned.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Too late? How are people going to understand any of that stuff first year?

Zanki has first year stuff in it....a lot of it actually. Biochem, Immuno, Foundational pathology, etc... If someone waits until second year they won't be able to finish the deck unless they do a ton of new cards a day, with a massive amount of reviews.

 

[Deecee2DO]

Zanki has first year stuff in it....a lot of it actually. Biochem, Immuno, Foundational pathology, etc... If someone waits until second year they won't be able to finish the deck unless they do a ton of new cards a day, with a massive amount of reviews.

I guess i wont be using Zanki then. F me right?

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

I guess i wont be using Zanki then. F me right?

If it works for you then I would go ahead and do it for the systems stuff, then just get your basic science stuff from BnB or something like that. And do literally 10k questions. As many as you can get your hands on.

 

[Ho0v-man]

Start Zanki with systems. Do not wait for second year.

 

[JimBone905]

Start Zanki with systems. Do not wait for second year.

Would doing LY be useful since im watching BnB, or should i just stick with Zanki? I just like how LY cards are tagged for each video.

 

[BlueBleck]

Dude. Stop saying OMS. You look like an idiot. Unless you become a chiropractic quack you’re in MEDICAL SCHOOL.

This is some real inferiority complex stuff.

I mean I see other people posting OMS1 and even emails of students signing off as an OMS1. I didn't realize it was wrong to do so.

Do whatever you want, man. Almost nobody cares. It's an email sig/anonymous forum title. If you're proud of your school/title, great for you! That other guy isn't. I wouldn't want his outlook on life. I came from a top 50 undergrad. I'm proud of it even if it isn't top 10. Even if I went to a bottom 500 school, I would have the right to be proud of where I went.

I sign OMS when I want to remind them that I'm from the neighboring osteopathic school. I sign MS when I get lazy. I sign nothing except my name most of the time.

 

[Ho0v-man]

Would doing LY be useful since im watching BnB, or should i just stick with Zanki? I just like how LY cards are tagged for each video.

No experience with LY so can’t comment. I watched BnB while doing Zanki. I think it would be overwhelming to keep up with Zanki anything aside from the sketchy decks first semester though. Decks like biochem are crazy dense for first semester. Have to be done eventually though.

edit: just realized I’m assuming you don’t start systems until 2nd semester like my school.

 

[JimBone905]

No experience with LY so can’t comment. I watched BnB while doing Zanki. I think it would be overwhelming to keep up with Zanki anything aside from the sketchy decks first semester though. Decks like biochem are crazy dense for first semester. Have to be done eventually though.

edit: just realized I’m assuming you don’t start systems until 2nd semester like my school.

We have a spiral curriculum meaning that we do a new system every 3-5 weeks and then do it again the next year but more in depth. If i were to unlock all cardio zanki cards after finishing cardio 1, there would still be a lot of cards that i havent learned about yet and will not learn about until year 2 in cardio 2. The only way i can see myself using zanki efficiently then is to just look for specific cards, which i guess i can do but that is time consuming.

Thats why i am attracted to the LY deck more b/c its more organized with its tags, albeit less comprehensive from what i read on reddit.

 

[BlueBleck]

Lol, what are you talking about kid? Solid non-sequitur. There is no such thing as an "osteopathic" physician. In this country there are physicians, of which you are either an MD or a DO. I will be a DO. You conflate your warped idea of "inferiority" with the reality of thought process and their subsequent conclusions. That process is such: if you ever tell an attending you are an "OMS" whatever, you will 100% be made fun of or looked at like an idiot.

I'm sure you do sign in it "OMS" because you are in the group of people I want nothing to do with. It's an easy litmus test. Saved me so much time and grief in med school.

We go to osteopathic medical school. We will receive doctorates in osteopathic medicine. Hence, we are osteopathic medical students that will become osteopathic physicians. We are also medical students who will become physicians.

If you want to sign MS because you're embarrassed, alright. Hope things work out for you.

 

[Giovanotto]

You will now write MS I, MS II, MS III, or MS IV unless you want to soap into a former AOA FM/IM program.

I sign off all my notes as OMS4... and funny enough I've had residents change it to MS4. I really couldn't care less since my note already means jack!

 

[Ho0v-man]

We have a spiral curriculum meaning that we do a new system every 3-5 weeks and then do it again the next year but more in depth. If i were to unlock all cardio zanki cards after finishing cardio 1, there would still be a lot of cards that i havent learned about yet and will not learn about until year 2 in cardio 2. The only way i can see myself using zanki efficiently then is to just look for specific cards, which i guess i can do but that is time consuming.

Thats why i am attracted to the LY deck more b/c its more organized with its tags, albeit less comprehensive from what i read on reddit.

Hard for me to take my experience and translate it to yours then. I’m guessing you do path 2nd year? My biggest piece of advice is to memorize and keep up with the concepts in Zanki (or bros, LY, whatever) that aren’t taught in class. Those things are fair game.

 

[JimBone905]

Hard for me to take my experience and translate it to yours then. I’m guessing you do path 2nd year? My biggest piece of advice is to memorize and keep up with the concepts in Zanki (or bros, LY, whatever) that aren’t taught in class. Those things are fair game.

Thanks for the advice. Ill try out BnB and LY for now and see how i like it. Might change to zanki later if i dont like LY. Yeah we do more path stuff 2nd year. We've done some now but its gonna be more later from what i hear.