How long should the lock down last?

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My uncle's brother (uncle by marriage) recently passed from SARS/COVID-19. Interesting thing is his wife told my parents they wouldn't put COVID-19 as cause of death on his death certificate. He tested positive -- twice -- and died of COVID-19 respiratory failure, so what would be the benefit of not listing it as a contributing cause of death?

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Essentially confirming a pediatric mortality rate of <0.1%. Even stating many of the deaths are questionably related to COVID at all.

Without a doubt schools should be open and high risk people need to stay away from kids.


You read the whole document and references is 16 minutes? cuz it’s not that clear cut
 
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You read the whole document and references is 16 minutes? cuz it’s not that clear cut

I read the pediatric outcomes portion. All the studies are linked so I'm not sure what you're getting at. You can read them yourself.
 
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We are seeing a bit of a spike in our county, some seriously ill, some not.
Schools are reopening fully, including football and other sports with spectators, cheerleaders etc.

It will be interesting to see how things progress.....
 
We are seeing a bit of a spike in our county, some seriously ill, some not.
Schools are reopening fully, including football and other sports with spectators, cheerleaders etc.

It will be interesting to see how things progress.....
Some anecdote. Cases in my county just over a month ago:

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Over a month later, with no significant interventions taken other than loosely enforced local city mask mandates in some (not all) towns in the county, we’re here:

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Clearly the mask mandates helped. They likely reduced spread, but maybe even more importantly, the mask mandates caused a lot of tourists to cancel their vacations to the area; less people = less spread. But other than that, no drastic actions were taken. Now that we’ve had enough virus run through town it’s largely burned itself out. Life is 95% back to normal in the county and remained largely so, throughout our local peak. Some of the hospitals had a rough ride, but none were left without help or had “systems collapse” scenarios, with COVID censuses now way down.

I worked through the whole peak, my 14 year got her first job (at a waterpark), my 11 year old played with friends, did yoga & lacrosse camps and my wife worked. We went out to restaurants several times, and on a vacation. We wore masks. We washed hands. We took reasonable, but not extreme precautions, without catastrophizing .

We lived. A lot of nursing home patients died. A handful of late middle-aged patients died. Zero kids died, locally.

Did I get lucky? Did my family get the virus and didn’t know it? Will we still get it and suffer greatly or die? I don’t know. But my county now has had enough infections per capita rivaling the hardest hit areas in the county. And now the virus is having a very hard time spreading, despite the town remaining packed, with restaurants, beaches, theaters, playgrounds and bars being open, with mostly everyone back to work.

What’s my point?

Nothing. Just anecdote. Take it for what it’s worth.
 
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Was it the mask mandate, or the natural progression of the curve like we've seen everywhere else? We will never know for sure, because there is no Bizarro America to which can compare.
 
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Was it the mask mandate, or the natural progression of the curve like we've seen everywhere else?
The graph looks a lot like Sweden’s doesn’t it?

It’s hard to tease out what made the greatest percentage difference: The mask mandate, less tourists being in town, our immune systems doing what they always do when exposed to viruses, other factors.

I don’t know how to assign a precise percentage share to each, but all the graphs sure do look a lot alike, don’t they? Some start earlier, some start later, but they all seem to follow that same pattern, eventually.
 
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The latest contact tracing data from 10k households in SK shows that kids are as infectious as anyone under 40: Contact Tracing during Coronavirus Disease Outbreak, South Korea, 2020
The authors of this study you posted to refute my and others' posts (that older children spread COVID-19 more than adults) now admit their initial study was wrong.

Their update: "Role of children in household transmission of COVID-19"

The NY Times K.I.S.S. summary: "The new report does suggest that older children are at least unlikely to transmit more than adults...as had been originally claimed...We’re not seeing a lot of real transmission from children.
 
The graph looks a lot like Sweden’s doesn’t it?

It’s hard to tease out what made the greatest percentage difference: The mask mandate, less tourists being in town, our immune systems doing what they always do when exposed to viruses, other factors.

I don’t know how to assign a precise percentage share to each, but all the graphs sure do look a lot alike, don’t they? Some start earlier, some start later, but they all seem to follow that same pattern, eventually.

Correlation is not causation. The virus correlates with the mask mandate, decreased tourism, etc, but in most places the shape of that graph is the same with/without mandates.
 
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The graph looks a lot like Sweden’s doesn’t it?

It’s hard to tease out what made the greatest percentage difference: The mask mandate, less tourists being in town, our immune systems doing what they always do when exposed to viruses, other factors.

I don’t know how to assign a precise percentage share to each, but all the graphs sure do look a lot alike, don’t they? Some start earlier, some start later, but they all seem to follow that same pattern, eventually.

Add in behavioral modification. Loosely enforced mask mandate may increase use but for others they see local cases spiking and change behavior. Maybe people see cases spiking and fewer go Out/church etc. maybe the social pressures change in favor of Masks/social distancing.

It is an interesting phenomenon. Most of us aren’t the Karen’s seen on Twitter, we’re averse to social conflict. When social pressures are to distance and wear masks we do it. When social pressure is to not wear masks we do that. It’s hard/awkward socially to be the only one wearing a mask or vice versa.

I was good about mask use where I used to live, but in California where I am now I wouldn’t be caught dead without one.
 
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It looks like sunbelt states have largely passed peak and avoided disaster without any of the drastic measures such as "lockdowns" or statewide stay-at-home orders, except for limited mask orders and bar closures. Now all of a sudden we don't hear about the sunbelt states?
 
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It looks like sunbelt states have largely passed peak and avoided disaster without any of the drastic measures such as "lockdowns" or statewide stay-at-home orders, except for limited mask orders and bar closures. Now all of a sudden we don't hear about the sunbelt states?

You are correct. AZ and FL are on the downslope. NV we are a bit behind but trending down with only "bars" getting closed.....however if the bars serve food they are somehow safe from COVID.
 
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You are correct. AZ and FL are on the downslope. NV we are a bit behind but trending down with only "bars" getting closed.....however if the bars serve food they are somehow safe from COVID.

I'll politely argue that FL is still seeing a rapid increase of cases on the gulf coast (where I live). Still, there are no lockdowns, and the pubs are open... There's just fewer barstools for "distancing".
 
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I'll politely argue that FL is still seeing a rapid increase of cases on the gulf coast (where I live). Still, there are no lockdowns, and the pubs are open... There's just fewer barstools for "distancing".
Florida's cases as a whole are trending down steadily for a month. I'm curious as to which Gulf Coast counties are seeing a rapid increase?

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Georgia is past it's July 24 peak and trending down in cases per day. Georgia's rate of viral spread (Ro) is <1.0 and less than 28 states. GA is not first in total cases per day. By what measure is Georgia "leading the nation in rates of new cases?"

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How's your ED and hospital doing so far @southerndoc ?

Hospital is full. We're holding patients continuously... waxes and wanes with the number of holds. One night we had 50+ admission holds with 10 ICU holds. I think it's down to <10 now. Thankfully we have the rooms (166-bed ER). The hospital needs more beds unfortunately, and that's a long process to get approved and to build.
 
Hospital is full. We're holding patients continuously... waxes and wanes with the number of holds. One night we had 50+ admission holds with 10 ICU holds. I think it's down to <10 now. Thankfully we have the rooms (166-bed ER). The hospital needs more beds unfortunately, and that's a long process to get approved and to build.

The thought of a 166 bed ED is daunting, and I've worked in some pretty big places!
 
The thought of a 166 bed ED is daunting, and I've worked in some pretty big places!

2 floors. 263,000 square feet. It's awesome though. We have a 12-bed critical care area and 3 of the rooms have huge doors as back walls. They literally open straight into a room with a CT scanner. We have 4 dedicated CT scanners, 2 ultrasound techs, 1 MRI dedicated just to the ER. They objected to my recommendation to put the CT scanner between the ambulance doors so people can get their pan scan before they're roomed. :)
 
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2 floors. 263,000 square feet. It's awesome though. We have a 12-bed critical care area and 3 of the rooms have huge doors as back walls. They literally open straight into a room with a CT scanner. We have 4 dedicated CT scanners, 2 ultrasound techs, 1 MRI dedicated just to the ER. They objected to my recommendation to put the CT scanner between the ambulance doors so people can get their pan scan before they're roomed. :)

Holy ****. Roughly where is this?
 
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2 floors. 263,000 square feet. It's awesome though. We have a 12-bed critical care area and 3 of the rooms have huge doors as back walls. They literally open straight into a room with a CT scanner. We have 4 dedicated CT scanners, 2 ultrasound techs, 1 MRI dedicated just to the ER. They objected to my recommendation to put the CT scanner between the ambulance doors so people can get their pan scan before they're roomed. :)

that’s legit.
 
2 floors. 263,000 square feet. It's awesome though. We have a 12-bed critical care area and 3 of the rooms have huge doors as back walls. They literally open straight into a room with a CT scanner. We have 4 dedicated CT scanners, 2 ultrasound techs, 1 MRI dedicated just to the ER. They objected to my recommendation to put the CT scanner between the ambulance doors so people can get their pan scan before they're roomed. :)

Nice! now, if they can only make an ED that's right next to the doctor's lounge AND the cafeteria....
 
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Nice! now, if they can only make an ED that's right next to the doctor's lounge AND the cafeteria....

I think that's intentional. Every hospital I've worked at, the doctor's lounge is the farthest geographic point from the ED. On the plus side it usually means administration is far away too.
 
I think that's intentional. Every hospital I've worked at, the doctor's lounge is the farthest geographic point from the ED. On the plus side it usually means administration is far away too.

The doctor's lounge is across the hall from the cafeteria.... but the cafeteria is a 1/4 mile walk (the ED is literally across the street from the main campus connected via a 2-story bridge).
 
The doctor's lounge is across the hall from the cafeteria.... but the cafeteria is a 1/4 mile walk (the ED is literally across the street from the main campus connected via a 2-story bridge).

I'll have to suggest that to our admin: "To get farther away, please physically locate the ED on another city block".
 
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LockDown School-Racket Targeting Parents

Shutdown public school systems now are setting up daycare systems in their schools are charging cash for them, to "help" you after leaving you desperate by their lock-down decisions. It's too unsafe to open their schools, but safe enough to open their schools as long as they rename them "daycare facilities" and double-charge you cash for it. Just don't call it "school." If you expect them to refund to you the tax dollars you already paid for them to be open, don't hold your breath. The mafia couldn't have come up with a better scheme: Force you to pay for a service, shut it down, leaving you desperate. Then, rename the service and charge you again. All for your own "safety."

I told you this was a racket, since day #1.


Examples:

N.C.

Virginia

California

Wisconsin

Arizona

Oregon


Don't forget to click the links to find out how great a deal the fees are. Meanwhile, European schools have been open for months.
 
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LockDown School-Racket Targeting Parents

Shutdown public school systems now are setting up daycare systems in their schools are charging cash for them, to "help" you after leaving you desperate by their lock-down decisions. It's too unsafe to open their schools, but safe enough to open their schools as long as they rename them "daycare facilities" and double-charge you cash for it. Just don't call it "school." If you expect them to refund to you the tax dollars you already paid for them to be open, don't hold your breath. The mafia couldn't have come up with a better scheme: Force you to pay for a service, shut it down, leaving you desperate. Then, rename the service and charge you again. All for your own "safety."

I told you this was a racket, since day #1.


Examples:

N.C.

Virginia

California

Wisconsin

Arizona

Oregon


Don't forget to click the links to find out how great a deal the fees are!
OMG I would be outraged!!!!
here is a quote from the california school " Staff will be there to assist children with gaining access to their virtual learning classrooms, homework, etc. "
LOL you pay for kids to go to a public school where the staff will use the school computers to connect to a virtual class. That"s like going to walmart to order amazon and paying both for one product.
 
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OMG I would be outraged!!!!
here is a quote from the california school " Staff will be there to assist children with gaining access to their virtual learning classrooms, homework, etc. "
LOL you pay for kids to go to a public school where the staff will use the school computers to connect to a virtual class. That"s like going to walmart to order amazon and paying both for one product.

This is yet another astonishing thing about this pandemic. The fact that the media, politicians, and close to half of the public think this is okay is insane.
 
Are we surprised that we don't have a very educated society in this country when we spend somewhere in the range of only 5% of GDP on education trailing many other countries? I don't have children currently but still don't mind paying property taxes to help fund education because I think it's important. I do think if schools decide to close, or provide the comparable equivalent of access to Amazon in a Walmart brick and mortar building (it should be noted though that many don't have reliable access to reliable internet/technology at home), then a portion of property taxes should be refunded. I think schools closing though isn't the smart answer. Education is the most powerful force to combatting many of the ills of society including SARS-CoV-2.
%GDP isn't the measure that matters. What matters is per pupil spending. We're #5 in the world.

 
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LockDown School-Racket Targeting Parents

Shutdown public school systems now are setting up daycare systems in their schools are charging cash for them, to "help" you after leaving you desperate by their lock-down decisions. It's too unsafe to open their schools, but safe enough to open their schools as long as they rename them "daycare facilities" and double-charge you cash for it. Just don't call it "school." If you expect them to refund to you the tax dollars you already paid for them to be open, don't hold your breath. The mafia couldn't have come up with a better scheme: Force you to pay for a service, shut it down, leaving you desperate. Then, rename the service and charge you again. All for your own "safety."

I told you this was a racket, since day #1.


Examples:

N.C.

Virginia

California

Wisconsin

Arizona

Oregon


Don't forget to click the links to find out how great a deal the fees are. Meanwhile, European schools have been open for months.
Sorry I can't let this go.
here is another quote from the cali school " SPUSD Food and Nutrition Services will have a hot lunch available that can be purchased with your MySchoolBucks account. "

So here is the scene:
man walks into restaurant
Waiter: welcome to Ralph's Diner
man: didn't this used to be Johns?
Waiter: no that would be illegal
man: but the sign says johns
Waiter: its ralphs
Man: menu says johns
Waiter: no we now use online menu ralphs menu
Man: it is the same as johns menu
Waiter: well kind of but no johns is illegal
Man: Ok well all I have is a gift card for johns
Waiter: well that is good because that is the only currency we accept!
 
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I do think it matters. It reflects a country’s priorities. I will agree that it may not be the only measure that matters, and there may be other measures that are better.

Your link also takes into account percentage of GDP.

“The total government and private expenditures on education institutions as a percentage of GDPmeasure allows for a comparison of countries’ expenditures relative to their ability to finance education.”

We won’t remain a world leader solely by continuing to outspend every other country on our military. If our society devalues education we won’t innovate for the future. Paying for a ton of swords and shields is the same as paying for a bunch of expensive outdated airplanes, ships and nuclear weapons for the future. We have the ability to better finance education if we so chose.

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The problem with using GDP is it gives you a very skewed look at it. It can tell you about priorities but it doesn't have to. We currently spend around 17k/student which is around 5% GDP. Let's say we want to increase that to Norway level (highest OECD country) at 8%. That's over a 50% increase. Now on the surface I can't say I'd object to spending more on education but at a certain point you get less benefit for the money you spend. I'd like to be the highest spending country on education, but we don't need to outspend the #2 country by 10k/student (hypothetical, I know that's not what the math says a 50% increase would result in).

The fact that we do spend so much but get a vastly inferior product in return (on average) should tell us that the problem isn't that we spend too little.

At the risk of going off on a crazy tangent, I actually think we still produce great students. We also just produce some awful students so our average scores aren't great.
 
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Many fair points. I personally feel our allocation of spending could be different. We far outspend the world on military, which I’d also argue results in diminishing returns at some point. While we may not get as much bang for our buck by moving up in our spending on education, I think the net gain would benefit our country more than our unsustainable military spending that is out of proportion to the rest of the world, and contributes to our rising national debt (yet another discussion where entitlement spending plays a big role too).
Yeah we could easily spend another 5k/student and barely even notice, budget wise.

That said, I would rather spend that money finding out why countries that spend less than us get such better results for their money.
 
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Yeah we could easily spend another 5k/student and barely even notice, budget wise.

That said, I would rather spend that money finding out why countries that spend less than us get such better results for their money.

Because we don't teach our students anything. Basic math, science and history are forgotten topics now. In fact we are implementing garbage versions of history like the 1619 project to indoctrinate students in newspeak.
 
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I'll have to suggest that to our admin: "To get farther away, please physically locate the ED on another city block".

To paraphrase Fiddler on the Roof.

"Is there a proper blessing for the CEO?"
"May the Lord bless and keep the CEO... FAR away from us!"
 
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Because we don't teach our students anything. Basic math, science and history are forgotten topics now. In fact we are implementing garbage versions of history like the 1619 project to indoctrinate students in newspeak.

As compared to the normal garbage history that conveniently ignores that the reason for the Civil War was slavery... as mentioned by the very traitors when they decided to enter into open rebellion and kill patriotic American soldiers.
 
Remember Peru, the COVID-19 success story? With one of the earliest and strictest lockdowns in the world, they now are...

...Sitting pretty, virus free, laughing at countries like Sweden & USA who weren't as strict?

No, Peru is now mired in economic devastation and with one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in the world, according to NY Times, despite one of the earliest and strictest lockdowns in the world.
 
Happen to be a Big Ten football fan?

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) killed your last chance to save a Fall Big Ten football season, according to Ohio based sports writer Jeff Snook. Gov. Mike Dewine (R-OH) had approved of it. Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.

Oh, and remember when a few Clemson players got COVID-19 after Clemson went back to practice so early? That turned into a disaster where bunch of 'em got critically ill and several players and all their old coaches died, right? Uh...nope. They're all fine. 1/3 of the team (that we know of) got infected and they're all fine, back practicing getting ready to win another national championship (or LSU, or Alabama). But not Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin or Penn State.
 
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Happen to be a Big Ten football fan?

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) killed your last chance to save a Fall Big Ten football season, according to Ohio based sports writer Jeff Snook. Ohio Gov. Mike Dewine (R) had approved of it. Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.

Oh, and remember when a few Clemson players got COVID-19 after Clemson went back to practice so early? That turned into a disaster where bunch of 'em got critically ill and several players and all their old coaches died, right? Uh...nope. They're all fine. 1/3 of the team got infected and they're all fine, back practicing.
Sloppy. Where is Whitmer governor? I think it's Michigan, but it's not relevant to me, so, I'm not looking it up. If you are cutting and pasting, at least read it, first.
 
Sloppy. Where is Whitmer governor? I think it's Michigan, but it's not relevant to me, so, I'm not looking it up. If you are cutting and pasting, at least read it, first.
Sloppy?

Dude, how can you not know where Whitmer is from? She's been all over the news as a possible VP contender (but lost that gig because she's not...uh...um...oh, forget it) and has been Vice Chief of Lockdowns, second only to Chief of Lockdowns Cuomo (who's from New York, if you need me to spell it out). And after reading my rants for almost 10 years, you should know I don't "cut and paste" unless I put it in quotes. You didn't even click the link, to see if I was just making it up? I back my stuff up and post the source links for a reason.

Man...and I've been such a good boy lately, too. Sheez. :lol:


"Let us do the very best that we can
While we're travelin' through this land
We can all be together, shakin' a hand
When we make it to the promised land"
- as sung by Jerry Garcia Band (written by Charles Johnson)
 
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Dude, how can you not know where Whitmer is from? She's been all over the news as a possible VP contender (but lost that gig because she's not...uh...um...oh, forget it) and has been Vice Chief of Lockdowns, second only to Chief of Lockdowns Cuomo (who's from New York, if you need me to spell it out). And after reading my rants for almost 10 years, you should know I don't "cut and paste" unless I put it in quotes. You didn't even click the link, to see if I was just making it up? I back my stuff up and post the source links for a reason.

Man...and I've been such a good boy lately, too. Sheez. :lol:


"Let us do the very best that we can
While we're travelin' through this land
We can all be together, shakin' a hand
When we make it to the promised land"
- as sung by Jerry Garcia Band (written by Charles Johnson)

She's one of the most notorious governors in America right now. With her authoritarian but hypocritical lockdown policies. She's my number 1 worst governor, followed by Cuomo, followed by Sisolak.
 
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As compared to the normal garbage history that conveniently ignores that the reason for the Civil War was slavery... as mentioned by the very traitors when they decided to enter into open rebellion and kill patriotic American soldiers.
What?

I was educated in South Carolina. It was made very clear that the Civil War was about slavery.

My college US History course at a super conservative school in Virginia started with the professor saying "the history department here believes and teaches that the primary cause behind the war was slavery".
 
What?

I was educated in South Carolina. It was made very clear that the Civil War was about slavery.

My college US History course at a super conservative school in Virginia started with the professor saying "the history department here believes and teaches that the primary cause behind the war was slavery".

"The state’s fifth- and seventh-graders taking Texas history courses, and eighth-graders taking U.S. history, are now asked to identify the causes of the war, “including sectionalism, states’ rights and slavery.”

Eighth-graders also compare ideas from Abraham Lincoln’s inaugural address with those from Confederate President Jefferson Davis’ inaugural address, which did not mention slavery and instead endorsed small-government values still popular with many conservatives today.

The eighth-grade curriculum also lists Confederate Gen. Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson alongside Frederick Douglass, a 19th century abolitionist, as examples of “the importance of effective leadership in a constitutional republic.”"


" Standards previously adopted in 2010 were designed to play up the role of states’ rights and sectionalism and downplay slavery as the reason Texas entered the Civil War on the side of the Confederacy. Slavery, one board member said at the time, according to The Washington Post, was a “side issue.”"
-https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/texas-will-finally-teach-slavery-was-main-cause-civil-war-180970851/

"Consider what happened in Texas in 2010. As part of a highly publicized revamp of the state social studies curriculum, the Republican-controlled Texas Board of Education removed slavery as the central cause of the Civil War and replaced it with states' rights and secession, with Republican board member Patricia Hardy calling slavery "an after issue." The Republican members also considered referring to the slave trade as the "Atlantic Triangular Trade" before finally settling on "Transatlantic Slave Trade."

The new curriculum was silent on the KKK during Reconstruction and failed to mention the Jim Crow era at all. It also equated Confederate President Jefferson Davis and Abraham Lincoln."


"In 2012, an Atlanta elementary school posed this homework question: “If Frederick got two beatings per day, how many beatings did he get in one week? Two weeks?” And just last year, San Antonio, Texas parents complained about a history homework assignment that asked eighth graders to list positive and negative aspects of slavery. Turns out the activity was directly tied to a textbook used by the school for about 10 years. Prentice Hall Classics: A History of the United States argued that all slaveowners were not cruel: “a few [slaves] never felt the lash,” and “many may not have even been terribly unhappy with their lot, for they knew no other.” "

 
"The state’s fifth- and seventh-graders taking Texas history courses, and eighth-graders taking U.S. history, are now asked to identify the causes of the war, “including sectionalism, states’ rights and slavery.”

Eighth-graders also compare ideas from Abraham Lincoln’s inaugural address with those from Confederate President Jefferson Davis’ inaugural address, which did not mention slavery and instead endorsed small-government values still popular with many conservatives today.

The eighth-grade curriculum also lists Confederate Gen. Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson alongside Frederick Douglass, a 19th century abolitionist, as examples of “the importance of effective leadership in a constitutional republic.”"


" Standards previously adopted in 2010 were designed to play up the role of states’ rights and sectionalism and downplay slavery as the reason Texas entered the Civil War on the side of the Confederacy. Slavery, one board member said at the time, according to The Washington Post, was a “side issue.”"
-https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/texas-will-finally-teach-slavery-was-main-cause-civil-war-180970851/

"Consider what happened in Texas in 2010. As part of a highly publicized revamp of the state social studies curriculum, the Republican-controlled Texas Board of Education removed slavery as the central cause of the Civil War and replaced it with states' rights and secession, with Republican board member Patricia Hardy calling slavery "an after issue." The Republican members also considered referring to the slave trade as the "Atlantic Triangular Trade" before finally settling on "Transatlantic Slave Trade."

The new curriculum was silent on the KKK during Reconstruction and failed to mention the Jim Crow era at all. It also equated Confederate President Jefferson Davis and Abraham Lincoln."


"In 2012, an Atlanta elementary school posed this homework question: “If Frederick got two beatings per day, how many beatings did he get in one week? Two weeks?” And just last year, San Antonio, Texas parents complained about a history homework assignment that asked eighth graders to list positive and negative aspects of slavery. Turns out the activity was directly tied to a textbook used by the school for about 10 years. Prentice Hall Classics: A History of the United States argued that all slaveowners were not cruel: “a few [slaves] never felt the lash,” and “many may not have even been terribly unhappy with their lot, for they knew no other.” "

I just don't get Texas. If the state that started the whole thing can teach that slavery was the main cause, not sure why everyone else doesn't.
 
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