Future of dentistry (in terms of demand and salary)?

[planisphere]

Hello doctors. I am an incoming D1 who is already worried about the upcoming four-year tuition loans.
I know that I will be able to pay off in the long-run (I am not really an extravagant type either), but I just want to know what to expect and how strenuous the battle is going to be in the future, and naturally I cannot stop thinking if dentistry has a good outlook while many other professions are going downhills.

P.S. I am not interested in specializing - I just want to work as a GP wherever offers a promising salary (I assume dental corporates in suburban areas or sth?) for several years until my loans stabilize.

Thanks in advance...

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[juniordentist]

How big will your loans be?

 

[IndifferentOsteoblast]

Only take out loans for the amount you will need, and live within your means. Also, taking out a little extra for unexpected costs won’t hurt you either. You’d be surprised the amount of times extra expenses come up throughout school. Best of luck to you

 

[planisphere]

How about the outlook of dentistry in the future? Better or worse?

 

[yappy]

How about the outlook of dentistry in the future? Better or worse?

No one can answer this. Many can offer an answer, but the truth is no one knows.

 

[Thehighwind87]

No one can answer this. Many can offer an answer, but the truth is no one knows.

One can extrapolate from the past decade that the future is overall worse.

More Debt= Yes
Inflation= Yes
Revenue not increasing with inflation= Yes
More Dentists with big debt = Yes (great for corporations)
More corporate encroachment = Yes

The biggest issue with dentistry is that it does not increase with inflation. That's it. That's the biggest crux of the issue. While your staff get raises, your supply costs go up, and subscription fees go up- your revenue remains stagnant.

While a 1 million dollar practice may have 60% overhead and still take home a great income 400k...it slowly goes down year over year as overhead creeps up 61%....63%... and so on. And that same 200-400k income in 2010 is NOT the same as 2023 200-400k income. In 2010, I could probably buy my house for 300-500k. Today its worth 1.5 million. So year over year you lose purchasing power.

That's the biggest problem with dentistry and why year over year it gets harder. Compound it 10-20 years and if you didn't hedge well (with investing or real estate) then you have taken a big paycut.

CPI Inflation Calculator

www.bls.gov

 

[yappy]

One can extrapolate from the past decade that the future is overall worse.

More Debt= Yes
Inflation= Yes
Revenue not increasing with inflation= Yes
More Dentists with big debt = Yes (great for corporations)
More corporate encroachment = Yes

The biggest issue with dentistry is that it does not increase with inflation. That's it. That's the biggest crux of the issue. While your staff get raises, your supply costs go up, and subscription fees go up- your revenue remains stagnant.

While a 1 million dollar practice may have 60% overhead and still take home a great income 400k...it slowly goes down year over year as overhead creeps up 61%....63%... and so on. And that same 200-400k income in 2010 is NOT the same as 2023 200-400k income. In 2010, I could probably buy my house for 300-500k. Today its worth 1.5 million. So year over year you lose purchasing power.

That's the biggest problem with dentistry and why year over year it gets harder. Compound it 10-20 years and if you didn't hedge well (with investing or real estate) then you have taken a big paycut.

CPI Inflation Calculator

www.bls.gov

Like I said, people will try to make predictions, but I would not base my future career plans on them.

There are too many crack-pot “economists” on these forums.

 

[Thehighwind87]

Like I said, people will try to make predictions, but I would not base my future career plans on them.

There are too many crack-pot “economists” on these forums.

Fair enough. I look at 10 years worth of data and I can see where it's going. If you have been around since 08, I'm surprised you have a positive outlook. You must of made more overhead % wise 08-20 before covid obliterated your margins through inflation. Unless you kept up with inflation for the past decade 35%?

 

[charlestweed]

How about the outlook of dentistry in the future? Better or worse?

If you work hard, you make good money in any profession. And dentistry is no exception. If the field is oversaturated, you travel to wherever the job opportunities are offered. That’s what we, California dentists, have done and have learned to adapt. If one office is not able to provide you enough patients, you get an additional job at a 2nd office…and a 3rd office, if necessary. The harder you work and save, the sooner you can relax and the less worries you will have about the future of the profession. The ones who struggle and complain are usually the ones who choose not to work hard…not to make sacrifice.

 

[axiumgod]

How much of the stagnation in earnings can be attributed to dentists not increasing their fees? I know there are limitations because of insurance contracts, but could you increase fees for cash patients or procedures that aren’t covered?

 

[charlestweed]

How much of the stagnation in earnings can be attributed to dentists not increasing their fees? I know there are limitations because of insurance contracts, but could you increase fees for cash patients or procedures that aren’t covered?

Yes, you can raise fees on cash patients. It’s your office. It’s capitalism. You can do whatever you want. But another dental office down the street maintains the same low fees and you’ll lose many of your cash patients to that office. Everyone wants good treatments at affordable fees.

Being in a highly competitive area, I’d rather have a busy schedule by treating patients at lower fees than sitting around doing nothing. Making something is better than zero. Gotta pay rents and staff salaries. As I’ve gained more clinical experience, I get things done a lot quicker with less effort, less time, less overhead. So I ended up making more over time. But now I make less because I am getting lazy. The referring GPs recognize that and some stopped referring patients to me. I don't call nor send tx reports to referring GPs anymore.

 

[Thehighwind87]

How much of the stagnation in earnings can be attributed to dentists not increasing their fees? I know there are limitations because of insurance contracts, but could you increase fees for cash patients or procedures that aren’t covered?

It’s very hard to increase as there are just a lot of dentists next door that offer 59$ cleaning and exam specials! Ironically the more I work- the more I see- cheaper and cheaper dentistry. Literally FREE EXAM with a 50$ cleaning. Like it's getting cheaper- not more expensive.

You have to just accept it and live with it. The way I see older dentists make it work is:

1) hedge with real estate or stocks. Dentistry offers enough income where you can invest the rest.

While yappy calls me a "armchair economist"- once can just look at when he started posting and CPI/SPY index fund returns:

CPI since 08 has run at 35%
SPY index fund since 08 has returned 158.83%

So if you hedged with index funds- you probably perserved your purchasing power 35% of inflation + gained a sweet 123% on your initial returns.

Real estate is another animal as it depends on location and interest rates. But in general homes appreciate along with inflation. Just look at Charles- he got a good setup going. Real estate appreciated and he has renters basically supplementing his income.

2) Expand hours/work more/ open more days/ associate

Doable yes and it will make up for lost income- but you end up working more so... that sucks. But to some people money is money so its all good.

3) Accept it and just live with it.

4) Go FFS/OON and make it work.

At the end of the day, I personally believe having a financial gameplan in tackling debt, inflation, and saving for retirement is the best approach. Going with #3 is really a recipe for pain long term as time flies by- you start looking towards retirement- and then you realize...woah my money doesn't purchase as much as it used to, and I need alot MORE to retire on. And then you got your 50-60 year old doc hustling last minute for a few bucks cuz they spent it all and didn't hedge.

 

[charlestweed]

At the end of the day, I personally believe having a financial gameplan in tackling debt, inflation, and saving for retirement is the best approach. Going with #3 is really a recipe for pain long term as time flies by- you start looking towards retirement- and then you realize...woah my money doesn't purchase as much as it used to, and I need alot MORE to retire on. And then you got your 50-60 year old doc hustling last minute for a few bucks cuz they spent it all and didn't hedge.

Agreed. But you need to work to generate a surplus so you can use that surplus to invest/save. You also need to resist the temptation to spend. If you make more, you can afford a more lavish lifestyle. If you choose to work less, you also need to spend less. It’s called delayed gratification. The problem is most people want to borrow and spend (aka YOLO) instead of saving and paying off debt. That’s why the total credit card debt in this country is close to $1 trillion…..$1.7 trillion in student loan debt…$19 trillion in mortgage debt. These are frightening numbers.

 

[Thehighwind87]

Agreed. But you need to work to generate a surplus so you can use that surplus to invest/save. You also need to resist the temptation to spend. If you make more, you can afford a more lavish lifestyle. If you choose to work less, you also need to spend less. It’s called delayed gratification. The problem is most people want to borrow and spend (aka YOLO) instead of saving and paying off debt. That’s why the total credit card debt in this country is close to $1 trillion…..$1.7 trillion in student loan debt…$19 trillion in mortgage debt. These are frightening numbers.

Yup totally agree, the earlier you can invest and make your money work for you- the better. Compounding interest works wonders. And with FIAT currency- the only way we are going- is devaluation of the dollar.

In your time charles- not to date your age- but I bet lunch was like 4.99 or even less. Today lunch in my area easy 25-30$. And the serving sizes are way less to.

By the time my kids go to college- it will probably be 35-40$ for lunch. Gotta hedge against the devaluation of the dollar.

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

www.visualcapitalist.com

But what does this armchair economist know.

 

[planisphere]

Yup totally agree, the earlier you can invest and make your money work for you- the better. Compounding interest works wonders. And with FIAT currency- the only way we are going- is devaluation of the dollar.

In your time charles- not to date your age- but I bet lunch was like 4.99 or even less. Today lunch in my area easy 25-30$. And the serving sizes are way less to.

By the time my kids go to college- it will probably be 35-40$ for lunch. Gotta hedge against the devaluation of the dollar.

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

www.visualcapitalist.com

But what does this armchair economist know.

What would you say is the biggest determining factor(s) in salary as a GP (other than working experience or individual skillset)? like area, networking, or thorough look out for job opportunities, etc? For now I am really even willing to go to like Alaska, Guam, or Hawaii if conditions meet (as a layman all i know is that unpopular areas have better chance). You know, like dedicate first several years in paying debt and get out, although it may sound easier than done...

 

[Thehighwind87]

What would you say is the biggest determining factor(s) in salary as a GP (other than working experience or individual skillset)? like area, networking, or thorough look out for job opportunities, etc? For now I am really even willing to go to like Alaska, Guam, or Hawaii if conditions meet (as a layman all i know is that unpopular areas have better chance). You know, like dedicate first several years in paying debt and get out, although it may sound easier than done...

Location location location. Go where you are needed. Alaska is GREAT. Plus they pay you literally I think 3200 a year to live there. It's not for everyone though. I know some graduates that went there- worked hard and got out.

If you decide to stick it out in the bay area/nyc you- it doesn't matter if you can drill fill and place implants- you will be stuck making low money because its just saturated.

 

[planisphere]

Location location location. Go where you are needed. Alaska is GREAT. Plus they pay you literally I think 3200 a year to live there. It's not for everyone though. I know some graduates that went there- worked hard and got out.

If you decide to stick it out in the bay area/nyc you- it doesn't matter if you can drill fill and place implants- you will be stuck making low money because its just saturated.

I am not really an outgoing type, so I am totally fine with boring areas, but safety is a different story - I hear Alaska (Anchorage?) is quite shady and dangerous place to live in, and as an Asian myself I am more alert to such statistics than others.

Would you say even within a state, cities differ in what I am looking for? Like even with in California, maybe there are some cities that have high demand? Or should I just be looking at states, like New Hampshire or Rhode island,?

What would be the second determining factor, or is location by far the number on priority?

 

[Thehighwind87]

I am not really an outgoing type, so I am totally fine with boring areas, but safety is a different story - I hear Alaska (Anchorage?) is quite shady and dangerous place to live in, and as an Asian myself I am more alert to such statistics than others.

Would you say even within a state, cities differ in what I am looking for? Like even with in California, maybe there are some cities that have high demand? Or should I just be looking at states, like New Hampshire or Rhode island,?

What would be the second determining factor, or is location by far the number on priority?

No clue to be honest. Just go where you are needed, and unfortunately its gonna be in places that not many people want to settle in.

 

[planisphere]

No clue to be honest. Just go where you are needed, and unfortunately its gonna be in places that not many people want to settle in.

Thank you. Glad to know there is a last resort ...

 

[charlestweed]

I am not really an outgoing type, so I am totally fine with boring areas, but safety is a different story - I hear Alaska (Anchorage?) is quite shady and dangerous place to live in, and as an Asian myself I am more alert to such statistics than others.

Would you say even within a state, cities differ in what I am looking for? Like even with in California, maybe there are some cities that have high demand? Or should I just be looking at states, like New Hampshire or Rhode island,?

It’s good to make sacrifice. But safety is very important. My cousin’s wife graduated from dental school the same year with me. But she failed the CA state board 3 times. Like most Asians, she didn't want to sit around and earned no income. So she decided to work at a rural Indian reservation area in AZ….and that place didn’t require a dental license. It’s a long drive to work and the roads are very narrow there. She passed away on her way home. Her car went into a ditch and flipped. The couple didn't have kid.

You can work in rural high desert areas in CA. I covered for a corp office in Hesperia, CA (a small rural city on the way to Vegas) a few times and I got a lot of case acceptances there because there aren’t too many dental offices in the area. The company has spent more than 6 months to find an orthodontist but no one wants to drive that far. This position is still available. The reason I chose to practice in CA is it’s a culturally diverse state and Asian dentists/doctors are more accepted here. In fact, most dentists and doctors here are Asians. I did my ortho residency in Kentucky….people were very nice to me there but I didn’t think I would be successful if I opened my practice there.

What would be the second determining factor, or is location by far the number on priority?

States that don’t levy state income tax and have lower cost of living (low home prices, low gas prices) such as FL, TX, NV, SD etc.

 

[planisphere]

Location location location. Go where you are needed. Alaska is GREAT. Plus they pay you literally I think 3200 a year to live there. It's not for everyone though. I know some graduates that went there- worked hard and got out.

If you decide to stick it out in the bay area/nyc you- it doesn't matter if you can drill fill and place implants- you will be stuck making low money because its just saturated.

Just one question if I may...how high salary can fresh grads aim for if they choose to sacrifice quality of life and go to Alaska or other unpopular locations highly in demand? There isn't much information about the salary of fresh grads for each state.

 

[LFA20]

Just one question if I may...how high salary can fresh grads aim for if they choose to sacrifice quality of life and go to Alaska or other unpopular locations highly in demand? There isn't much information about the salary of fresh grads for each state.

I would say 150k/year at minimum in those rural areas starting out

 

[DMD12345]

Yup totally agree, the earlier you can invest and make your money work for you- the better. Compounding interest works wonders. And with FIAT currency- the only way we are going- is devaluation of the dollar.

In your time charles- not to date your age- but I bet lunch was like 4.99 or even less. Today lunch in my area easy 25-30$. And the serving sizes are way less to.

By the time my kids go to college- it will probably be 35-40$ for lunch. Gotta hedge against the devaluation of the dollar.

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

www.visualcapitalist.com

But what does this armchair economist know.

Wow so general dentists in 1913 effectively made 150,000 x 26 = $3,900,000 their first year. Crazy

 

[Thehighwind87]

Wow so general dentists in 1913 effectively made 150,000 x 26 = $3,900,000 their first year. Crazy

Yeah I think so. Crazy right?

Not. If you don’t understand how inflation work. Then when you are a dentist you will understand it real quick.

 

[DMD12345]

Yeah I think so. Crazy right?

Not. If you don’t understand how inflation work. Then when you are a dentist you will understand it real quick.

Lol

 

[planisphere]

It’s good to make sacrifice. But safety is very important. My cousin’s wife graduated from dental school the same year with me. But she failed the CA state board 3 times. Like most Asians, she didn't want to sit around and earned no income. So she decided to work at a rural Indian reservation area in AZ….and that place didn’t require a dental license. It’s a long drive to work and the roads are very narrow there. She passed away on her way home. Her car went into a ditch and flipped. The couple didn't have kid.

You can work in rural high desert areas in CA. I covered for a corp office in Hesperia, CA (a small rural city on the way to Vegas) a few times and I got a lot of case acceptances there because there aren’t too many dental offices in the area. The company has spent more than 6 months to find an orthodontist but no one wants to drive that far. This position is still available. The reason I chose to practice in CA is it’s a culturally diverse state and Asian dentists/doctors are more accepted here. In fact, most dentists and doctors here are Asians. I did my ortho residency in Kentucky….people were very nice to me there but I didn’t think I would be successful if I opened my practice there.

States that don’t levy state income tax and have lower cost of living (low home prices, low gas prices) such as FL, TX, NV, SD etc.

To a layman like an incoming freshman myself, a corp office in such a rural area sounds like a goldmine for freshgrads in debts, is it? The city is still close to LA or I wonder if Alaska is like the only solid place to start.

 

[planisphere]

I would say 150k/year at minimum in those rural areas starting out

Thank you for the ball park figure. Rural area in a state that doesn't levy income tax sounds like a good place to start after graduation. I kinda hope for more when I researched the average starting salary for freshgrads is around ~$120k, I mean 30k different isn't small, but...I guess I kinda have to see this as a long battle.

 

[Thehighwind87]

Thank you for the ball park figure. Rural area in a state that doesn't levy income tax sounds like a good place to start after graduation. I kinda hope for more when I researched the average starting salary for freshgrads is around ~$120k, I mean 30k different isn't small, but...I guess I kinda have to see this as a long battle.

Your first two years are a wash to be honest. You are to slow to work fast, to inexperienced to take on hard cases and to unconfident to manage casesz

First two years are just a learning experience- year 3-5 is a better depiction of your salary. But regardless I always tell people- goals should be 1-2 years get experience- year 3-5 buy and build your practice.

Practice ownership is where you make money

 

[planisphere]

Your first two years are a wash to be honest. You are to slow to work fast, to inexperienced to take on hard cases and to unconfident to manage casesz

First two years are just a learning experience- year 3-5 is a better depiction of your salary. But regardless I always tell people- goals should be 1-2 years get experience- year 3-5 buy and build your practice.

Practice ownership is where you make money

I am not sure if I want to have my own practice...was never interested in marketing/business stuff...it sounds like like a constant headache. I guess this is where we approach a realm of choice. But I appreciate your feedbacks so far...

 

[Thehighwind87]

I am not sure if I want to have my own practice...was never interested in marketing/business stuff...it sounds like like a constant headache. I guess this is where we approach a realm of choice. But I appreciate your feedbacks so far...

The benefits of ownership far outweigh associating. No one associates for long. You will understand later on.

 

[planisphere]

The benefits of ownership far outweigh associating. No one associates for long. You will understand later on.

Whatever I choose to do in the end,
do you recommend me working as an associate at DSO vs private office fresh out of D-school, if I am only after salary for my loans? or whenever the job comes up?

 

[nobeldds]

DSO only for the first 3-6 months until you find a good private office or a privately owned small chain (under 20 offices). Most GPs don’t make much working for a large DSO, especially for how hard they work.

 

[Roto Picante]

An average dentist will make the most money as a practice owner. Yes there are outlier associates that make a killing but I would argue that is the exception. And any dental student who still thinks they are the exception to the rule and will buck all the trends then you are kidding yourself. If you are interested in making the most money, your goal should be to own a practice or partner with someone. And speaking of the killer associates, almost all end up buying a practice because they see how much money they are leaving on the table.

Alaska has higher fees but is not the free for all that has been implied. The economy still affects patients, businesses and the cost of doing business here too. Cost of living is high, the winters are cold, long and dark, and there are lots of dentists here too. As is true for most other places, it was better and easier a decade ago. Don't come here for the money, you (and your partner/kids) will hate it. Trust me.

 

[charlestweed]

To a layman like an incoming freshman myself, a corp office in such a rural area sounds like a goldmine for freshgrads in debts, is it? The city is still close to LA or I wonder if Alaska is like the only solid place to start.

It’s not that close. It takes me about 1.5-2 hours (each way) to get there from Orange County. I was ok to drive that far to help because I have a self-driving Tesla….because it’s only temprorary job… and because I only cover that office 3 days a month. I wouldn’t drive there if I had to do this every day. I would only drive there if I had a lot of student loans to pay back.

Yes, that corp office produces good money. Every time I work there, I started 4-5 new ortho cases for them. The general dentist who works there also produces a lot and he’s paid based on the % of production. He is one of the few dentists who is willing to drive that far to work. He is a foreign trained dentist from Mexico. After graduation, he went to another Mexican dental school, De La Salle, and the graduates from this dental school can work in the state of CA.

I also have a few dentist friends who practice in the rural CA areas in Fresno and Modesto. Some bought houses there and stay there. Some sold their practices and houses and moved back to Orange County because it’s so boring to live there (according to them, not a good place to raise their kids). They were willing to take a pay cut to work in OC.

 

[LFA20]

Your first two years are a wash to be honest. You are to slow to work fast, to inexperienced to take on hard cases and to unconfident to manage casesz

First two years are just a learning experience- year 3-5 is a better depiction of your salary. But regardless I always tell people- goals should be 1-2 years get experience- year 3-5 buy and build your practice.

Practice ownership is where you make money

I agree ownership should be the goal. However, with schools COA approaching 500-700k nowadays how can you justify taking out more loans for a practice? Like you will be well above $1 million in debt. Do the banks even let you borrow that much? Lol

 

[Roto Picante]

I agree ownership should be the goal. However, with schools COA approaching 500-700k nowadays how can you justify taking out more loans for a practice? Like you will be well above $1 million in debt. Do the banks even let you borrow that much? Lol

This is where I have problems with Dave Ramsey's philosophy. Its about cash flow. Yes your debt will be higher but so will your after tax income, by A LOT. If you make <200K for rest of your career because you never leave the associate realm, the opportunity costs are just going to kill you long term..

 

[Thehighwind87]

I agree ownership should be the goal. However, with schools COA approaching 500-700k nowadays how can you justify taking out more loans for a practice? Like you will be well above $1 million in debt. Do the banks even let you borrow that much? Lol

Banks will lend to any living pulse especially a dentist. If they can make the loan and the cash flow works out to like 50k they will still lend because in the end the banks still win. If you succeed you make 50k and they get interest. If you fail, then they take everything and sell to the highest bidder.

If they make a bunch of crappy loans and fail- then the fed bails them out. Look at the regional bank collapse. Svb bought long term treasuries even though the fed said they would raise rates effectively collapsing their balance sheet as the treasuries are worthless. They didn’t even hedge!!!! Which is a rookie mistake and this is a multibillion dollar institution. And what happened in the end? Bailouts.

Banks don’t have your best interest. When banks take your deposit and lend it out for billions in profit and give you .001% interest…. I mean that says a lot. I think I have literally 30$ in my checking account.

They want to make money off you. Never forget that.

 

[LFA20]

Banks will lend to any living pulse especially a dentist. If they can make the loan and the cash flow works out to like 50k they will still lend because in the end the banks still win. If you succeed you make 50k and they get interest. If you fail, then they take everything and sell to the highest bidder.

If they make a bunch of crappy loans and fail- then the fed bails them out. Look at the regional bank collapse. Svb bought long term treasuries even though the fed said they would raise rates effectively collapsing their balance sheet as the treasuries are worthless. They didn’t even hedge!!!! Which is a rookie mistake and this is a multibillion dollar institution. And what happened in the end? Bailouts.

Banks don’t have your best interest. When banks take your deposit and lend it out for billions in profit and give you .001% interest…. I mean that says a lot. I think I have literally 30$ in my checking account.

They want to make money off you. Never forget that.

I feel like an idiot right now sitting out of the market since January…. Currently holding all cash at a brokerage offering 4.65%apy from their cash sweep program with only $5 monthly fee). I don’t know… spy and qqq has been up a lot YTD. I am kicking myself but kept telling myself that there will always be a dip to enter later.

I want to get back in the market but certainly don’t want to go all in way at one time and stuck with high ave price and no gunpowder to buy if it ever dips…

Do you recommend to start DCAing? Or wait for a major dip? Lol I have been burned a lot before trying to time the market and trade but luckily no big damage to my capital

 

[Thehighwind87]

I feel like an idiot right now sitting out of the market since January…. Currently holding all cash at a brokerage offering 4.65%apy from their cash sweep program with only $5 monthly fee). I don’t know… spy and qqq has been up a lot YTD. I am kicking myself but kept telling myself that there will always be a dip to enter later.

I want to get back in the market but certainly don’t want to go all in way at one time and stuck with high ave price and no gunpowder to buy if it ever dips…

Do you recommend to start DCAing? Or wait for a major dip? Lol I have been burned a lot before trying to time the market and trade but luckily no big damage to my capital

That’s the million dollar question- no one knows. Analysts predicted spy 5000 last year and it crashed to 3400. Analysts this year said we revisit octover lows and now we are almost revisiting all time high

All I know is that people who wait for a dip and when it comes they never buy. And those that dca don’t even bother looking at market news. My wife is a dca since 2019 and she’s up 40 something percent. She doesn’t even know what the spy is or what the spy today is at.

I bought when the dip came up 45% since October lows. I have another dca acct that I buy spy fund everyday without fail. You have to figure out what you wanna do.

All I know is that long term markets go up and the fed will most likely bail out everything if things get crashy. So if they bail out they print which makes stocks go up as money is devalued.

At the end of the day you have to figure out your risk yolerance etc

 

[Thehighwind87]

I feel like an idiot right now sitting out of the market since January…. Currently holding all cash at a brokerage offering 4.65%apy from their cash sweep program with only $5 monthly fee). I don’t know… spy and qqq has been up a lot YTD. I am kicking myself but kept telling myself that there will always be a dip to enter later.

I want to get back in the market but certainly don’t want to go all in way at one time and stuck with high ave price and no gunpowder to buy if it ever dips…

Do you recommend to start DCAing? Or wait for a major dip? Lol I have been burned a lot before trying to time the market and trade but luckily no big damage to my capital

No one knows anything!

 

[LFA20]

No one knows anything!

Yup. I (and many others) was following this guy. He also charges monthly subscription on Patreon. I don't know.. I feel like everything that he said so far sort of "make sense". High core inflation, QT, high interest rate, fed isn't done with raising rates, etc. He has other videos predicting that BTC will drop $12k during its halving even starting in 2024 and stocks to start to bottom in Q3-Q4 2023. We are halfway done with 2023 and like you said stocks are back to revisit previous ATH....

Are the big boys trying to influence retail to fomo since there is so much negative sentiment right now? No wonder small investors like us get killed all the time... I feel like going against the media is always the best thing to do...My gut feeling says hedge funds are almost done inducing retail to buy into this rally and will soon take profit and drive the price down. Isn't that their strategy? lol buy low sell high while us retail are are stuck holding long term and do the opposite(for those who can't hold).

 

[Thehighwind87]

Yup. I (and many others) was following this guy. He also charges monthly subscription on Patreon. I don't know.. I feel like everything that he said so far sort of "make sense". High core inflation, QT, high interest rate, fed isn't done with raising rates, etc. He has other videos predicting that BTC will drop $12k during its halving even starting in 2024 and stocks to start to bottom in Q3-Q4 2023. We are halfway done with 2023 and like you said stocks are back to revisit previous ATH....

Are the big boys trying to influence retail to fomo since there is so much negative sentiment right now? No wonder small investors like us get killed all the time... I feel like going against the media is always the best thing to do...My gut feeling says hedge funds are almost done inducing retail to buy into this rally and will soon take profit and drive the price down. Isn't that their strategy? lol buy low sell high while us retail are are stuck holding long term and do the opposite(for those who can't hold).


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I take everything with a grain of salt.

Money Managers want to skim 2% off your balance. Stocks go up or stocks go down- they make money off your principle. My mom has a money manager that literally just invests in FANG+some bonds. I'm like mom you could do this and not give away 2%.... on a few million dollar portfolio which is alike 40-60k in fees alone for "managing.

YouTubers make money through advertising and monetizing views and patreon. While they may update you in the news- they don't have an edge either.

At the end of the day- you take all the info available to you and make the best decision for yourself. I listen to YouTubers, I listen to cnbc, I read seeking alpha, I read Bloomberg, I live and breath stocks- but the reality is that no-one knows what the market will do.

I personally invest as the data changes- and currently the fed has shown their hand- they are done raising rates- and 2 more rate hikes will do nothing, companies still have pricing power, the consumer is still buying things, inflation metrics are coming down, congress keeps spending money, and we are heading into an election year where it makes sense for the market to make new highs. And while the Fed might be hawkish- the congress isn't- they keep spending money. This is the NEW normal. Prices remain high while inflation slows to 2%. Those that didn't hedge lost their purchasing power and those that didn't buy the dip got screwed.

If there is no "change" like the fed raising rates out of nowhere to 8%, congress stops spending and raises taxes, maybe another war in China/Taiwan, I don't see how we are going to crash. This is just my opinion tho, and I buy and sell as data comes in.

 

[charlestweed]

I feel like an idiot right now sitting out of the market since January…. Currently holding all cash at a brokerage offering 4.65%apy from their cash sweep program with only $5 monthly fee). I don’t know… spy and qqq has been up a lot YTD. I am kicking myself but kept telling myself that there will always be a dip to enter later.

I want to get back in the market but certainly don’t want to go all in way at one time and stuck with high ave price and no gunpowder to buy if it ever dips…

Do you recommend to start DCAing? Or wait for a major dip? Lol I have been burned a lot before trying to time the market and trade but luckily no big damage to my capital

Investing in real estate is much safer, especially for high income earners like dentists and doctors. When I bought my first house, I didn’t think of this as an investment. I just wanted to reward myself for working 6 days/wk. I came to realize that it was a great investment, when I sold the house to upgrade to a bigger house. I am glad that I used all of the profit amount for selling the first house to pay off half of the student loan debt, instead of spending it on stupid things or investing in the stock market, that I had zero knowledge on. Two years later, I sold the 2nd house to upgrade to an even bigger house for the same reason. And again, I used the profit to pay off the rest of the student loan debt. I had zero student loan debt but I had a much bigger mortgage debt to pay back. So I essentially “converted” the student loan debt to a new kind of debt….the mortgage debt. When I looked back, I realized that there were a lot of benefits for doing this: 1. I could write off the interest on the home loan. 2. I get to enjoy living in a big house. 3. I didn’t have to pay any taxes on the profits from selling my houses. 4. Home price will always go up over time. 5. With the mortgage debt still over my head, I never lost the motivation to work hard to pay it off. 6. Unlike the student loan debt, which can never be erased, I can sell the house if I have a hard time to pay the mortgage. Student loans are the worst kind of loan to have. I don’t understand why people want to keep their student loans around like their “little pet” by postponing the repayment…by stretching the repayment period to longer 30-yr term….by filing for a forbearance….or by signing up for IBR (and then have to face a tax bomb in their late 50s, 60s). It sucks to still have to worry about student loan debt (or tax bomb) at 50-60.

I don’t have any regret for sitting out of the market for the last 20+ years. I am glad that I didn’t listen to other broke people for financial advice. I am glad that I didn’t listen to my CPA, who advised against paying off the mortgage debt early. Those people are still in debts and still have to work (and hate their jobs) to pay them back.

 

[Thehighwind87]

Investing in real estate is much safer, especially for high income earners like dentists and doctors. When I bought my first house, I didn’t think of this as an investment. I just wanted to reward myself for working 6 days/wk. I came to realize that it was a great investment, when I sold the house to upgrade to a bigger house. I am glad that I used all of the profit amount for selling the first house to pay off half of the student loan debt, instead of spending it on stupid things or investing in the stock market, that I had zero knowledge on. Two years later, I sold the 2nd house to upgrade to an even bigger house for the same reason. And again, I used the profit to pay off the rest of the student loan debt. I had zero student loan debt but I had a much bigger mortgage debt to pay back. So I essentially “converted” the student loan debt to a new kind of debt….the mortgage debt. When I looked back, I realized that there were a lot of benefits for doing this: 1. I could write off the interest on the home loan. 2. I get to enjoy living in a big house. 3. I didn’t have to pay any taxes on the profits from selling my houses. 4. Home price will always go up over time. 5. With the mortgage debt still over my head, I never lost the motivation to work hard to pay it off. 6. Unlike the student loan debt, which can never be erased, I can sell the house if I have a hard time to pay the mortgage. Student loans are the worst kind of loan to have. I don’t understand why people want to keep their student loans around like their “little pet” by postponing the repayment…by stretching the repayment period to longer 30-yr term….by filing for a forbearance….or by signing up for IBR (and then have to face a tax bomb in their late 50s, 60s). It sucks to still have to worry about student loan debt (or tax bomb) at 50-60.

I don’t have any regret for sitting out of the market for the last 20+ years. I am glad that I didn’t listen to other broke people for financial advice. I am glad that I didn’t listen to my CPA, who advised against paying off the mortgage debt early. Those people are still in debts and still have to work (and hate their jobs) to pay them back.

People make stock market investing complicated but it’s not. Dca into index fund like the spy and in theory you should be good. Backtest it for 5, 10, 20 years and you should grow your money exponentially. It’s literally not rocket science.

People make it rocket science because everyone is looking for the next amazon or apple stock and dump their life savings in it and then they lose everything.

For some people that is fun to look for the next big one and retire early but the majority of people will fail.

However if you are a true investor and just index fund it, don’t gamble it and just invest normally not like a gambling *****, then you will most likely come out ahead. The past decade had shown spy to have a 100%+ return. So if you had 500k ten years ago you probably grew it to 1.0 mil plus excluding dividends.

Regardless housing is a great asset but when you build wealth it’s good to diversify in order to spread out risk. 2-3 homes, a few million in a safe portfolio, your business etc.

But of course the market gets a bad rep because people put everything into something like Lucid stock as the next Tesla at 100$ a share jan 2021 just to watch it dump to 8$ today.

 

[Pablo Sanchez]

I feel like an idiot right now sitting out of the market since January…. Currently holding all cash at a brokerage offering 4.65%apy from their cash sweep program with only $5 monthly fee). I don’t know… spy and qqq has been up a lot YTD. I am kicking myself but kept telling myself that there will always be a dip to enter later.

I want to get back in the market but certainly don’t want to go all in way at one time and stuck with high ave price and no gunpowder to buy if it ever dips…

Do you recommend to start DCAing? Or wait for a major dip? Lol I have been burned a lot before trying to time the market and trade but luckily no big damage to my capital

Dollar Cost Average for sure!! Nobody can time the market.

 

[EVILDENTIST]

Yup totally agree, the earlier you can invest and make your money work for you- the better. Compounding interest works wonders. And with FIAT currency- the only way we are going- is devaluation of the dollar.

In your time charles- not to date your age- but I bet lunch was like 4.99 or even less. Today lunch in my area easy 25-30$. And the serving sizes are way less to.

By the time my kids go to college- it will probably be 35-40$ for lunch. Gotta hedge against the devaluation of the dollar.

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

www.visualcapitalist.com

But what does this armchair economist know

Yup totally agree, the earlier you can invest and make your money work for you- the better. Compounding interest works wonders. And with FIAT currency- the only way we are going- is devaluation of the dollar.

In your time charles- not to date your age- but I bet lunch was like 4.99 or even less. Today lunch in my area easy 25-30$. And the serving sizes are way less to.

By the time my kids go to college- it will probably be 35-40$ for lunch. Gotta hedge against the devaluation of the dollar.

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

$1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $26 in 2020. This chart shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has changed over time.

www.visualcapitalist.com

But what does this armchair economist know.

Well the time value of money is a thing. It's practically baked into the entire economic model almost globally. Money is worth less over time. Don't see how that makes ye an armchair economist.
Shout-out to my corp finance professor for drilling into us the need to understand how money works.

 

[chipskylark13]

Always split a large investment into 8, and invest quarterly into an index over a two year period! Regardless I think this country is addicted to free money (low interest) and once rates begin to come back down, we will see an explosion in asset prices similar to Canada ;( . Homes will never be 300-400k again in high quality of life areas. The new norm has been set. Like evil dentist stated money is worth less over time.

 

[LFA20]

Always split a large investment into 8, and invest quarterly into an index over a two year period! Regardless I think this country is addicted to free money (low interest) and once rates begin to come back down, we will see an explosion in asset prices similar to Canada ;( . Homes will never be 300-400k again in high quality of life areas. The new norm has been set. Like evil dentist stated money is worth less over time.

How would you advise someone who has a chunk of cash sitting around(i.e $100k) and wants to start investing all of them for long term? Do you recommend just slowly DCAing the money or wait for a huge dip and go all in? or only invest on red days? If DCAing how much should that person invest each time and how often?

 

[chipskylark13]

How would you advise someone who has a chunk of cash sitting around(i.e $100k) and wants to start investing all of them for long term? Do you recommend just slowly DCAing the money or wait for a huge dip and go all in? or only invest on red days? If DCAing how much should that person invest each time and how often?

Currently I would try to put in like 15k into an index fund quarterly, while leaving the rest in a HYSA until the next deposit. And say after your initial deposit there's a 20% dip within a month. I would use the next deposit to buy that dip and hold off on the scheduled buy.

 

[P7898]

Anything can be good for the right price. Low debt. Go where you’re needed. Dentistry is good.

High debt. Want to live in upscale places. Dentistry is bad.

Never listen to the people that say “But oh you’re a dentist you can afford it.”