Chances of matching with only 10 interviews

[chitown2012]

I'm currently interviewing for peds residency and have about 12 interviews. However, 2 of those are outside of the region where I want to live so I was hoping to only have to go on 10 interviews. I'm kind of nervous about not matching though.

Step 1: between 200-210
Step 2: between 230-240
No med school awards
ERAS stats:
-3 work experiences
-6 volunteer experiences (I only listed what was actually significant but maybe should've padded it more :/)
-2 research experiences + poster presentation
No red flags besides my step 1

US MD

Would anyone care to offer some perspective about how realistic it is more for me to only interview at 10 places and expect to match? Thanks.

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[NurWollen]

I'm currently interviewing for peds residency and have about 12 interviews. However, 2 of those are outside of the region where I want to live so I was hoping to only have to go on 10 interviews. I'm kind of nervous about not matching though.

Step 1: between 200-210
Step 2: between 230-240
No med school awards
ERAS stats:
-3 work experiences
-6 volunteer experiences (I only listed what was actually significant but maybe should've padded it more :/)
-2 research experiences + poster presentation
No red flags besides my step 1


Would anyone care to offer some perspective about how realistic it is more for me to only interview at 10 places and expect to match? Thanks.

Are you US MD, DO, or IMG?

10 interviews will likely get you a spot, but I'd go to all 12, just to be safe.

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[chitown2012]

Are you US MD, DO, or IMG?

10 interviews will likely get you a spot, but I'd go to all 12, just to be safe.

US MD

 

[Mad Jack]

Look at Charting Outcomes. Your chances are pretty good.

 

[chitown2012]

Look at Charting Outcomes. Your chances are pretty good.

Thanks, I did but was wondering how my low step 1 score would impact the number of programs where I should interview.

I wish I knew the statistics to calculate chances of matching taking into account both optimal number of interviews and step score.

 

[Step Up]

The answer to your question depends heavily on where you have interviewed. Even more importantly, you didn't mention the most important piece to your pediatric residency application - your 3rd and 4th year grades (and namely your peds clerkship and peds sub-I grades). You should be totally fine despite the low step 1. If your grades are strong, then I would say chance of matching top 10 is >99.9%. If grades are mediocre, chances are probably still extremely high unless you happened to interview at all very competitive programs for your application.

 

[Ismet]

Your chances are quite good, but would be even better with 11 or 12 interviews. If I were in your shoes, I would go to all of them. I went on a couple interviews that I hated the location, but I put them at the bottom of my ROL and thankfully matched well above them. But I would rather be a resident and get through the 3 years in a less than ideal place, rather than go through SOAP or this whole process over again and waste a year.

 

[chitown2012]

The answer to your question depends heavily on where you have interviewed. Even more importantly, you didn't mention the most important piece to your pediatric residency application - your 3rd and 4th year grades (and namely your peds clerkship and peds sub-I grades). You should be totally fine despite the low step 1. If your grades are strong, then I would say chance of matching top 10 is >99.9%. If grades are mediocre, chances are probably still extremely high unless you happened to interview at all very competitive programs for your application.

I got a HP in my peds clerkship. I got a HP in every M3 clerkship except for 1 P.

 

[KP2AZ]

Look at Charting Outcomes. Your chances are pretty good.

agreed- that puts you at 95% chance of matching roughly. the graph looks like 11 puts you at around 97-ish% and 12 puts you 99-ish% .

 

[Ladholyman]

I would go to every single interview you get your hands on. The extra time and money is worth it to eliminate any anguish down the road. I went on 21 interviews myself for the peace of mind.

 

[TheRebels]

Personally, a balance between a number-driven approach and my gut feelings is my method in formatting my rank list.
Obviously, I can't speak of your interview experiences and it's up to you to evaluate those programs.
From the perspective of numbers, the charting outcomes of 2016 on NRMP shows that applicants with 10 contiguous ranks have the matching odds of 166/167 (page 155). Also, the 2017 applicant survey illustrates that the average rank list of matched US seniors into pediatrics is 12 (page 132). In other words, you can go to 12 interviews to alleviate your concerns. But if I were you, I would be comfortable with a rank list of 10.
Best of luck to you.
P/S: all of my data are obtained from NRMP

 

[Step Up]

I would go to every single interview you get your hands on. The extra time and money is worth it to eliminate any anguish down the road. I went on 21 interviews myself for the peace of mind.

This advice doesn't apply to everyone. You really only need so many 'safety' programs on your list. It doesn't hurt (aside from the wallet) to go on extra interviews, but for many people, going to 12 instead of 10 is completely unnecessary.

 

[DO2015CA]

I would go to every single interview you get your hands on. The extra time and money is worth it to eliminate any anguish down the road. I went on 21 interviews myself for the peace of mind.

Did you find this to be overkill? Also, was this stupid expensive?

 

[TheRebels]

I would go to every single interview you get your hands on. The extra time and money is worth it to eliminate any anguish down the road. I went on 21 interviews myself for the peace of mind.

Going to 21 interviews sounds both exhausting and unnecessary. Your odds of matching essentially maxes out after 13

Did you find this to be overkill? Also, was this stupid expensive?

Just thinking of the applicants with 7 or 8 interviews hoping for just one or two more while someone else is going to > 20 interviews

 

[DO2015CA]

Going to 21 interviews sounds both exhausting and unnecessary. Your odds of matching essentially maxes out after 13

Just thinking of the applicants with 7 or 8 interviews hoping for just one or two more while someone else is going to > 20 interviews

Ya I agree. I feel like going on 21 is excessive. Like you said if it maxes at 13, then It kind of screws other students out of interviews for those with <10.

 

[Ladholyman]

Ya I agree. I feel like going on 21 is excessive. Like you said if it maxes at 13, then It kind of screws other students out of interviews for those with <10.

This advice doesn't apply to everyone. You really only need so many 'safety' programs on your list. It doesn't hurt (aside from the wallet) to go on extra interviews, but for many people, going to 12 instead of 10 is completely unnecessary.

I guess I'm just very risk averse, since I wasn't the strongest applicant.

 

[GoSpursGo]

Ultimately it's all a numbers game. If you look at the graph in charting outcomes, the number of contiguous ranks starts to show diminishing returns at >9. 3/107 (2.8%) went unmatched at 8, 0/115 went unmatched at 9, 1/167 (0.6%) went unmatched at 10, 1/198 at 11 (0.51%), 0/209 at 12, and if you want to be cheeky, then 4/691 (0.58%) at >12.

Clearly, nothing is guaranteed, but my point is that statistically your chances of matching with 10 contiguous ranks is about 99.4%. Additional interviews beyond 10 each cost several hundreds of dollars to attend, and the available data don't suggest these additional interviews would actually buy you an increased likelihood of matching. So if you think there is a chance you might want to go to those programs, or if you are a person who feels like you "need to do everything possible," then by all means go to a few more interviews. But the data would not support the idea that going increases your (already very high) chances of matching.

 

[BabyDoc86]

I had the same general Step scores as you. My med school was paranoid about having everyone Match, so they overshot how many applications/interviews we should have. I applied to 30, got 24 interviews, went on 19, ranked 14. Matched at my #1. I wouldn't go on nearly as many interviews if I knew then what I know now. 10-12 should be ok, even though nothing is guaranteed.

 

[chitown2012]

I had the same general Step scores as you. My med school was paranoid about having everyone Match, so they overshot how many applications/interviews we should have. I applied to 30, got 24 interviews, went on 19, ranked 14. Matched at my #1. I wouldn't go on nearly as many interviews if I knew then what I know now. 10-12 should be ok, even though nothing is guaranteed.

Thanks

One of my concerns is that I've applied to 40 programs, only got about 15 interviews. I was rejected at 5 (medical college of Wisconsin, brown, Northwestern, CNMC, JHU) I'm on the waitlist at one program. I never contacted the other places so maybe that's why I haven't heard from them.

Is it a bad sign that I've only gotten 15 interviews out of the 40 places that I applied to? Does that mean I should do more interviews?

 

[TheRebels]

Thanks

One of my concerns is that I've applied to 40 programs, only got about 15 interviews. I was rejected at 5 (medical college of Wisconsin, brown, Northwestern, CNMC, JHU) I'm on the waitlist at one program. I never contacted the other places so maybe that's why I haven't heard from them.

Is it a bad sign that I've only gotten 15 interviews out of the 40 places that I applied to? Does that mean I should do more interviews?

Run your own race, my friend

 

[GoSpursGo]

Thanks

One of my concerns is that I've applied to 40 programs, only got about 15 interviews. I was rejected at 5 (medical college of Wisconsin, brown, Northwestern, CNMC, JHU) I'm on the waitlist at one program. I never contacted the other places so maybe that's why I haven't heard from them.

Is it a bad sign that I've only gotten 15 interviews out of the 40 places that I applied to? Does that mean I should do more interviews?

No it's not a bad sign. It means you may have applied to some programs which were above your competitive level, but that's why you apply a little more broadly to get enough interviews.

Again, nothing is guaranteed, but that is the case regardless of how many interviews you go to. Per charting outcomes you're going to have an excellent chance of matching with anywhere between 10 and 15 interviews. No matter how many "I went on a million interviews then matched at my #1 and wish I'd gone on fewer" stories you hear, whether the security of knowing you "did everything possible" is worth the extra hundreds of dollars each interview costs is a value judgement that only you can make.