Catching a falling knife

[RickyScott]

Recently had a conversation with a medstudent interested in radiation because it is easier to match into a top tier program. Tried to clarify that when applying for a job, new grads often are also competing against those already 5-10 years out, and that market is not so "beholden to program status" that it will vault them over candidates who attended low/mid tier programs when it took phd/AOA/260+ scores to match. (radoncs arent stupid) Basically, a lot of highly qualified radonc grads from this and coming years, who did not find preferred geography or are in exploitative situations will be looking to move and competing for jobs with future pgy5s.

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[elementaryschooleconomics]

Recently had a conversation with a medstudent interested in radiation because it is easier to match into a top tier program. Tried to clarify that when applying for a job, new grads often are also competing against those already 5-10 years out, and that market is not so "beholden to program status" that it will vault them over candidates who attended low/mid tier programs when it took phd/AOA/260+ scores to match. Basically, a lot of highly qualified grads from this and coming years, who did not find preferred geography or are in exploitative situations will be looking to move...

I find it hard sometimes to talk to med students about this, because it's similar to trying to talk to pre-meds still in undergrad about residency programs - they're a step removed from the process. They often hear "it's easier to match into Stanford than 10 years ago" and anchor on that.

 

[RickyScott]

I find it hard sometimes to talk to med students about this, because it's similar to trying to talk to pre-meds still in undergrad about residency programs - they're a step removed from the process. They often hear "it's easier to match into Stanford than 10 years ago" and anchor on that.

Really is a restatement of academic narcissism. We are so focused on name of training program, that we will be dumb and blind to circumstances of the match.

 

[deleted605854]

I think with medical students all you can tell them is what the reality of the field is and what it used to be like. No one knows if it will get better. Lots of people think it will get worse. But I don't say that to med students I just tell them what the stark reality is, I leave the predictions out of it.

There's no point talking about other fields because we don't know how things factor into them. I don't want to tell someone to go into radiology only for AI to do that field in like hypofrac did rad onc. I don't want to tell someone to do cardiac electrophysiology (7-8 years of training!) only for reimbursement to plummet because of better pharmacotherapy and CMS.

I had a friend who went into Gastroenterology because he thought that the future of bariatric medicine/colorectal surgery would be via advanced endoscopy. He's now in a satellite doing screening colonoscopies 95% of the time.

There is an element of randomness in life and medicine. Med students need to accept that. Or just go down the safe route and do IM or FM! done!

 

[theradiator]

Really is a restatement of academic narcissism. We are so focused on name of training program, that we will be dumb and blind to circumstances of the match.

Interesting. One can speculate that those entering the match 5 to 10 years ago were "momentum investors" following the "wisdom of crowds" while those considering rad onc now are "value investors"?

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

Interesting. One can speculate that those entering the match 5 to 10 years ago were "momentum investors" following the "wisdom of crowds" while those considering rad onc now are "value investors"?

RadOnc = penny stock confirmed

 

[medgator]

Interesting. One can speculate that those entering the match 5 to 10 years ago were "momentum investors" following the "wisdom of crowds" while those considering rad onc now are "value investors"?

Would imply value remains vs being a "value trap"

Think everyone who called oil stocks cheap in 2019

 

[scarbrtj]

RadOnc = penny stock confirmed

I would put choosing a penny stock specialty right up there with choosing a penny stock spouse.

 

[beamotherapy]

Based on the thread title I thought this was going to be a for-sale ad for a used Cyberknife.

 

[RadRadRad]

Interesting. One can speculate that those entering the match 5 to 10 years ago were "momentum investors" following the "wisdom of crowds" while those considering rad onc now are "value investors"?

haha. Hard to imagine Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffet “buying” radonc right now...

 

[medgator]

haha. Hard to imagine Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffet “buying” radonc right now...

I like Berkshire but buffet has made some bad "value trap" calls the last decade... Kraft heinz, IBM, etc.

I think that until ASTRO and academic leadership addresses the problem and reduces spots, rad Onc will be a "value trap"

 

[deleted941485]

I find it hard sometimes to talk to med students about this, because it's similar to trying to talk to pre-meds still in undergrad about residency programs - they're a step removed from the process. They often hear "it's easier to match into Stanford than 10 years ago" and anchor on that.

All the smart money moved on so the Med students that still end up talking to me are impervious to the realities and think everything will work out. We only get 1 or 2 like all year but I just avoid them. Their eagerness and energy are also annoying.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

All the smart money moved on so the Med students that still end up talking to me are impervious to the realities and think everything will work out. We only get 1 or 2 like all year but I just avoid them. Their eagerness and energy are also annoying.

Rad onc rocks! Dontcha know?

 

[salubalu]

Based on the thread title I thought this was going to be a for-sale ad for a used Cyberknife.

The thread title was a little edgy for me...