Still interested to hear
@RadRadRad's math. In essence,
it's not a one size fits all solution and there is a lot of uncertainty with future taxes. The law could change at any time, pushing one way or another.
Roth 401k is post-tax, traditional 401k is pre-tax. My marginal tax rate is 44% (federal, state, city). Max 401k contribution is $20,500.
In order to contribute $20,500 to a Roth 401k,
I have to spend $20,500/.56 = $36,607 in pre-tax money.
If instead I take $36,607 and put it into a traditional 401k, I have $20,500 in pre-tax 401k dollars and ($36,607 - $20,500) * 0.56 = $9,020 in post-tax dollars.
Assuming I'm 35 and plan to retire at 60, at the end of 25, with a 7% rate of return, these returns look as follows. There's going to be a bit of tax drag on the taxable account so the taxable total will probably be a bit less but it's not super critical here.
| Roth 401k | 401k | Taxable Total | Taxable Basis | Taxable Gains |
60 | $ 1,407,867.64 | $ 1,407,867.64 | $ 619,461.76 | $ 234,520.00 | $ 384,941.76 |
So this is the simple part. For my situation, at the end of 25 years I have about 44% more saved going with a pre-tax 401k. However, whether the pre-tax route was better than the post-tax (Roth) route
depends entirely on how efficiently I am able to access this money. Things that impact this include:
Where you retire to
How old you are when you retire
Other income streams in retirement
Married vs. Single
How much money you require at retirement
Changes in tax law
If you're married, making $350k in Florida with a 24% marginal tax rate and plans to retire somewhere with a bigger tax burden, you don't benefit nearly as much as someone like myself with my 44% marginal tax rate and plans tor retire to Florida or Texas.
One other BIG component to this all is
tax diversification. A lot of our money (401k, 457b, employer contributions) tends to be wrapped up in pre-tax dollars which puts you at risk of getting screwed over by required minimum distributions (RMDs) at 72. If you plan to retire at 55, you have 17 years to drain those accounts through some combination of roth conversions and spending. If you retire at 65, these account values can get to be massive and you start getting hit with huge tax bills.
So in sum, it all depends and everyone's scenarios are slightly different. High earners in high tax states with low volumes of pre-tax savings who plan to retire early to low tax states will benefit the most from a pre-tax 401k. Low earners in low tax states with large volumes of pre-tax savings who plan to work forever before retiring to high tax states will benefit the most from a Roth 401k. Everyone else will fall somewhere in the middle. Even in an extreme case like mine, once taxes are factored in, the benefit is not massive, so it's probably mostly a wash for most.