2012-2013 Rank Order List Power Score and Compilation Thread

[michigator04]

While it's not necessarily a valid statement that 80% will match in their top 5, etc.

Actually there is some NRMP data to back this up. Check out http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2012.pdf on page 35. It is all applicants, not just EM, but it shows 56.5% of Matched US Seniors getting their 1st choice, 15.6% 2nd, 9.7% 3rd, 5.7% 4th, and 12.7% 5+. That's 87.3% who match in their top 4.

I don't know how closely this applies to EM, but since EM was on the higher side of the number of ranked applicants needed to fill all spots in a program (6.3 ranks/spot, on page 39 of same report), I would guess this is pretty accurate and maybe even underestimating how many EM people match in their top 4.

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[NE2013EM]

Actually there is some NRMP data to back this up. Check out http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2012.pdf on page 35. It is all applicants, not just EM, but it shows 56.5% of Matched US Seniors getting their 1st choice, 15.6% 2nd, 9.7% 3rd, 5.7% 4th, and 12.7% 5+. That's 87.3% who match in their top 4.

I don't know how closely this applies to EM, but since EM was on the higher side of the number of ranked applicants needed to fill all spots in a program (6.3 ranks/spot, on page 39 of same report), I would guess this is pretty accurate and maybe even underestimating how many EM people match in their top 4.

I like it--thanks for the info. I heard a PD say 85% of EM applicants in would match their top 3, but had no idea how to verify that, or (still) to tell if that's just a rounding of the info in this table.

 

[KeyzerSoze]

I think the overall match rate for EM was only 89% last year..so no way 90% of applicants get top 5

I think this is a misinterpretation of the 2012 NRMP data, assuming the numbers are from http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2012.pdf . For US seniors, it gives 1335 EM matches out of 1498 applicants, which is 89%, but the footnote says that the number of applicants there includes those who applied to more than one specialty, and not only those who had EM as their first choice.

 

[winkleweizen]

I think this is a misinterpretation of the 2012 NRMP data, assuming the numbers are from http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2012.pdf . For US seniors, it gives 1335 EM matches out of 1498 applicants, which is 89%, but the footnote says that the number of applicants there includes those who applied to more than one specialty, and not only those who had EM as their first choice.

Thanks..so not quite as bad I guess

 

[ianjustlellis]

Allright guys,

I'm going to open up the spreadsheet for group editing to encourage one last batch of ROL submissions before we hang it up for posterity. Perhaps this will encourage the shy ones to post their lists!

Feel free to add your rank lists to the spreadsheet, but please follow the following rules...

1. Please only edit the actual rank order fields. In case they don't make sense to someone, if under the column "1" there is a number 6, this means 6 other people have ranked that particular program number 1. If you also ranked them number 1, change the number to a 7.

2. Please respect the idea of the list and don't submit lists that aren't real or "pad" programs' stats.

3. Don't change the power score algorithm or other formulas in the spreadsheet.

4. If you already sent me your list, I have already added it, so please no double lists.

Thanks to all for all the submissions, I have had a lot of fun with this and hopefully it will be a good resource for future classes!

Best of luck to all. If you still want to send me your lists I will be happy to put them in the sheet for you.

 

[bad virus]

Allright guys,

I'm going to open up the spreadsheet for group editing to encourage one last batch of ROL submissions before we hang it up for posterity. Perhaps this will encourage the shy ones to post their lists!

Feel free to add your rank lists to the spreadsheet, but please follow the following rules...

1. Please only edit the actual rank order fields. In case they don't make sense to someone, if under the column "1" there is a number 6, this means 6 other people have ranked that particular program number 1. If you also ranked them number 1, change the number to a 7.

2. Please respect the idea of the list and don't submit lists that aren't real or "pad" programs' stats.

3. Don't change the power score algorithm or other formulas in the spreadsheet.

4. If you already sent me your list, I have already added it, so please no double lists.

Thanks to all for all the submissions, I have had a lot of fun with this and hopefully it will be a good resource for future classes!

Best of luck to all. If you still want to send me your lists I will be happy to put them in the sheet for you.

Ian, I think you have a good N already and don't really need to open it up. It might bring into question the veracity of the findings.

Good luck with everything and thanks for the fun chart. I am sure students next year will use some of it to be able to see which programs in their region were generally seen as great by last years applicants.

 

[ianjustlellis]

Ian, I think you have a good N already and don't really need to open it up. It might bring into question the veracity of the findings.

Good luck with everything and thanks for the fun chart. I am sure students next year will use some of it to be able to see which programs in their region were generally seen as great by last years applicants.

I've been monitoring the changes to make sure there's nothing out of the ordinary (and deleting our less "mature" compatriots' attempts at graffiti)

Thanks for the good wishes!

 

[han14tra]

It seems like it's working to increase the # of responders. I just hope everyone remains honest, and that there isn't any data sabotage.

 

[winkleweizen]

It seems like it's working to increase the # of responders. I just hope everyone remains honest, and that there isn't any data sabotage.

lol...if they do, then what? hahaha, it shouldnt change anything.

 

[ianjustlellis]

lol...if they do, then what? hahaha, it shouldnt change anything.

Aw c'mon winkler, you know there's enough data there to draw some meaningful conclusions now

 

[DreamingTheLive]

Lmao. So, extrapolating the "data" (applied extremely loosely), a future applicant could surmise that West Virginia....West Virginia....is the 4th "most powerful/desirable/competitive/insert-semi-synonym-here EM residency program in country?"

I thought we were supposed to be helping future classes.

 

[ianjustlellis]

Lmao. So, extrapolating the "data" (applied extremely loosely), a future applicant could surmise that West Virginia....West Virginia....is the 4th "most powerful/desirable/competitive/insert-semi-synonym-here EM residency program in country?"

I thought we were supposed to be helping future classes.

And someone in a future class will notice that WVa only has a 7% survey response, which obviously throws that particular data point into a little bit of question. However, they can still look at it and say, of the 7 people that ranked it that we know of, 4 ranked it in their top 2. Still meaningful in my opinion, when compared to the 7 people that ranked St Louis University and not a single person ranked it in their top 7.

As for the many programs now that have a >15% response rate (and some above 30), yeah, I think people can figure out some information.

Regardless, I'm not getting my knickers in a twist if some people don't get it or think it's useful .

Whenever the data set is closed here in a few days or so, I'm going to arrange it geographically anyway. The point is that someone next year can get on and say, hmmm, i'm interested in X program--I wonder how last year's applicants liked it? They'll be able to do that for sure.

 

[tealblue]

Lmao. So, extrapolating the "data" (applied extremely loosely), a future applicant could surmise that West Virginia....West Virginia....is the 4th "most powerful/desirable/competitive/insert-semi-synonym-here EM residency program in country?"

There's no reason to be crapping on West Virginia either. You aren't willing to believe the data in his spreadsheet, but you take the small SDN sample set of way above average posters as gospel. WVU must be a joke of some sort since it's not mentioned to death in this thread. It goes both ways, see...

 

[DreamingTheLive]

There's no reason to be crapping on West Virginia either. You aren't willing to believe the data in his spreadsheet, but you take the small SDN sample set of way above average posters as gospel. WVU must be a joke of some sort since it's not mentioned to death in this thread. It goes both ways, see...

Don't get your panties in a bunch. Nothing in my post refers to anything on SDN as gospel...quite the opposite in-fact.

Lighten-up SDN.

 

[strongboy2005]

Opening the spreadsheet to the public is a bad idea. Going to be hard to trust the validity of the data now. Anyone could go on there and put a fake rank list. At least having to post a fake rank list on SDN took a little more effort (and there was really no incentive to do so).

 

[ianjustlellis]

Opening the spreadsheet to the public is a bad idea. Going to be hard to trust the validity of the data now. Anyone could go on there and put a fake rank list. At least having to post a fake rank list on SDN took a little more effort (and there was really no incentive to do so).

Yeah, but anybody could have PM'd me a fake ROL and I would have put it on there. I've been "tracking changes" and everyone has been putting in at least a real list (i.e., nobody's just changed one program's #1s by 4 or something. I'm hoping there wouldn't be much incentive for anyone to put a fake one in there anyway (which would be pretty sad ).

 

[docvino]

Yeah, but anybody could have PM'd me a fake ROL and I would have put it on there. I've been "tracking changes" and everyone has been putting in at least a real list (i.e., nobody's just changed one program's #1s by 4 or something. I'm hoping there wouldn't be much incentive for anyone to put a fake one in there anyway (which would be pretty sad ).

Well my ranking for more the one program has been deleted.
I really think making it public was a bad idea.

 

[pulsetone]

I really think making it public was a bad idea.

Seconded. A lot of programs seem to be jumping all of the place. Maybe it's legit, but seems kind of fishy.

 

[docvino]

Seconded. A lot of programs seem to be jumping all of the place. Maybe it's legit, but seems kind of fishy.

And a program I ranked that had zero #1 ranks suddenly has 3.
Hmmm. Lame.

 

[ianjustlellis]

OK guys, someone made one colossal edit mistake and screwed it up. I leave for 10 minutes...

I reverted to before it happened, there is a new link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnzZUifXW_SgdDRocV9WTUNkM1AwQm9DUWVkZDgtaWc#gid=0

 

[ianjustlellis]

Again, new ROL link is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnzZUifXW_SgdDRocV9WTUNkM1AwQm9DUWVkZDgtaWc#gid=0

New link is in my sig as well.

The reason for the cluster edit was someone noticed that his/her google name was listed under revision history. I'm glad she brought this to my attention because I didn't realize that was the case. The only way to get the info out of the revision history was to make a new file.

IF YOU DON'T WANT YOUR GOOGLE NAME LISTED WHEN YOU EDIT, log out of your google account before editing and it will show up as anonymous.

 

[Mongo32]

Lmao. So, extrapolating the "data" (applied extremely loosely), a future applicant could surmise that West Virginia....West Virginia....is the 4th "most powerful/desirable/competitive/insert-semi-synonym-here EM residency program in country?"

I thought we were supposed to be helping future classes.

The problem with the data is that there are several things that it does not factor in.

First, it doesn't factor in choosing places based upon location. For the places that maybe aren't as sexy to live (i.e. West Virginia), you likely don't have the pan-applying that occurs to several of the California, NYC, Boston, etc., programs. Because of this, the applicants that end up applying and getting interviews likely have strong family ties to the areas and will rank them much higher.

Second, it doesn't factor in that every program doesn't interview every applicant. For instance, if the top 100 EM applicants all went to the theoretical top 10 programs, then at the end of the day, one of these programs would be the tenth lowest ranked program of that list, but still the tenth best program. When you have data like this though, what happens is that the 100 EM applicants ranked 900th-1000th will get interviews at similar places at lets say the programs theoretically ranked 90th-100th. What can potentially happen is for the 90th ranked program, to be ranked higher than the 10th ranked program.

Lastly, the data doesn't factor in for selectivity of programs. Lesser known programs might shoot for the stars and offer interviews to the top candidates who likely won't rank the program highly. Conversely, you might have lesser known programs who have learned that the top candidates won't rank them highly so they interview applicants who are likely to rank them highly.

Anyway, my point is that this spreadsheet should not be taken as the holy grail for future applicants as there are many things it can't factor in. At the end of the day, EM programs are all more similar than dissimilar and you as an applicant need to decide what is your number 1 program. For one person, living in West Virginia would be miserable, and New York City would be ideal. To another person, living in New York City would be miserable, and West Virginia would be ideal.

 

[DreamingTheLive]

The problem with the data is that there are several things that it does not factor in.

First, it doesn't factor in choosing places based upon location. For the places that maybe aren't as sexy to live (i.e. West Virginia), you likely don't have the pan-applying that occurs to several of the California, NYC, Boston, etc., programs. Because of this, the applicants that end up applying and getting interviews likely have strong family ties to the areas and will rank them much higher.

Second, it doesn't factor in that every program doesn't interview every applicant. For instance, if the top 100 EM applicants all went to the theoretical top 10 programs, then at the end of the day, one of these programs would be the tenth lowest ranked program of that list, but still the tenth best program. When you have data like this though, what happens is that the 100 EM applicants ranked 900th-1000th will get interviews at similar places at lets say the programs theoretically ranked 90th-100th. What can potentially happen is for the 90th ranked program, to be ranked higher than the 10th ranked program.

Lastly, the data doesn't factor in for selectivity of programs. Lesser known programs might shoot for the stars and offer interviews to the top candidates who likely won't rank the program highly. Conversely, you might have lesser known programs who have learned that the top candidates won't rank them highly so they interview applicants who are likely to rank them highly.

Anyway, my point is that this spreadsheet should not be taken as the holy grail for future applicants as there are many things it can't factor in. At the end of the day, EM programs are all more similar than dissimilar and you as an applicant need to decide what is your number 1 program. For one person, living in West Virginia would be miserable, and New York City would be ideal. To another person, living in New York City would be miserable, and West Virginia would be ideal.

(Sigh). It was a tongue-in-cheek post about a hypothetical future applicant. Nothing more.

Agree with, and have stated the above, many many times. You're kind of preaching to the choir, bud.

 

[DreamingTheLive]

However, I am feeling kind of bad about my West Virginia comments...

I am now imploring all applicants, SDNers, citizens/non-citizens of the US, whether or not you interviewed/ranked WV, to submit ROLs with West Virginia #1!

Everyone should have their day in the sun, why not make West Virginia the most powerful residency program in all the land for 2012-2013!?!?

So grab your 'Coonskin hat, musket and most importantly, your voice, this is the year we make West Virginia #1!

 

[Loon]

I do have one friend that interviewed at West Virginia and absolutely loved it. I'm pretty sure it's top 3 for him.

 

[Polarbear4]

Not to continue to sidetrack the thread, but I interviewed at WVU and loved it as well. However, it's certainly hurt by location. Not in my top 5. Still has tremendous people, happy residents, and I think they train excellent physicians.

 

[ianjustlellis]

:sigh:

I think that a person that is considering applying to West Virginia is the kind of person that will benefit from seeing what other people who also applied to West Virginia thought of it after they interviewed. And so on for every other place. So I don't think on a program to program basis there is as much of a problem as people think.

For example, I applied to NYC programs, and I'm really not interested in what someone from WVa thinks about NYC---I want to know what other people interested in NYC thought! And...lo and behold this info is in the spreadsheet.

I have long since admitted that a POWER SCORE is pretty much just a way to keep people interested by way of it being controversial--but it's not going to be in the final list that goes at the end of the thread. It's going to be organized by geography, just like FREIDA, and will just list the ROLs and information.

 

[ianjustlellis]

So i've been informed by PM that there are some apparently truly dumb people on the forum that are trying to get people together to screw up the spreadsheet.

1. That's some serious middle-school ish right there, I thought we were like, postgraduates.
2. Get a life, preferably one that doesn't involve messing with other people's stuff that they've invested a lot of time in.
3. The ROL is now closed for editing again.

To those who care to, you can still PM me your ROLs.

 

[nyerdoc]

So i've been informed by PM that there are some apparently truly dumb people on the forum that are trying to get people together to screw up the spreadsheet.

1. That's some serious middle-school ish right there, I thought we were like, postgraduates.
2. Get a life, preferably one that doesn't involve messing with other people's stuff that they've invested a lot of time in.
3. The ROL is now closed for editing again.

To those who care to, you can still PM me your ROLs.

Irony

 

[Loon]

Irony

Yes. God forbid someone try to aggregate data. What a sin.

 

[QfeverQ]

So i've been informed by PM that there are some apparently truly dumb people on the forum that are trying to get people together to screw up the spreadsheet.

1. That's some serious middle-school ish right there, I thought we were like, postgraduates.
2. Get a life, preferably one that doesn't involve messing with other people's stuff that they've invested a lot of time in.
3. The ROL is now closed for editing again.

To those who care to, you can still PM me your ROLs.

Sucks dude. Thanks for your hardwork though.

 

[EMquest3]

Irony

You must be one sad resident if you think his creation is somehow messing with your life. That's the only way I can see you calling his statement "ironic."

 

[nyerdoc]

You must be one sad resident if you think his creation is somehow messing with your life. That's the only way I can see you calling his statement "ironic."

You very much missed why I used the term ironic (refer back to other rank list thread)---

In the interim I'll continue to enjoy the saga of the sacred list derived from a skewed sample of paranoid medical students who have tried to find a way to circumvent the typical ridicule one would encounter when asking "what is the best residency" with this asinine statistical abortion of a list.....


Fatty McFattypants

 

[Docuronium]

Seriously, what is wrong with you guys? Someone recently asked why I was only willing to post my ROL anonymously.

This is the reason.

 

[EMquest3]

You very much missed why I used the term ironic (refer back to other rank list thread)---

In the interim I'll continue to enjoy the saga of the sacred list derived from a skewed sample of paranoid medical students who have tried to find a way to circumvent the typical ridicule one would encounter when asking "what is the best residency" with this asinine statistical abortion of a list.....


Fatty McFattypants

So a medical student tries to organize the data from the ROL thread into something that may or may not be useful in the future for applicants. The entire time it's repeated by said student that this data is skewed and may or may not be useful. With so many respondents it's become likely that some useful information is contained in the list even if you are too narrow minded to consider that possibility. Your response is to belittle him and make fun of his work. I hope you really are in NY because I would hate to end up working with anyone that has such a callous and disrespectful attitude.

 

[winkleweizen]

Seriously...it was something to just pass the time as we all nervously wait for the match. No clue, why someone would try to **** with this guys hardwork and then belittle him for it.

Who cares if you think its pointless, others find it useful, interesting, or at the very least amusing.

 

[Transmogrifier]

You very much missed why I used the term ironic (refer back to other rank list thread)---

In the interim I'll continue to enjoy the saga of the sacred list derived from a skewed sample of paranoid medical students who have tried to find a way to circumvent the typical ridicule one would encounter when asking "what is the best residency" with this asinine statistical abortion of a list.....


Fatty McFattypants

These data are about as good as it gets until we get a residency MSAR (never). Much better than trying to interpret a bunch of scattered, individual rank lists. Probably even more meaningful would be to have everyone add reviews to the respective threads for all the programs they visited.

 

[deleted245139]

To anyone trying to mess with the list just trying to be a bully - I hope I don't match at a program with you - I only see it as a sign of your ethics. People are pretty brave when they sit behind a computer screen...

 

[fahimaz7]

You very much missed why I used the term ironic (refer back to other rank list thread)---

In the interim I'll continue to enjoy the saga of the sacred list derived from a skewed sample of paranoid medical students who have tried to find a way to circumvent the typical ridicule one would encounter when asking "what is the best residency" with this asinine statistical abortion of a list.....


Fatty McFattypants

What a tool. Don't be so mad that people didn't rank your precious residency spot higher on the list. It doesn't mean that it's not a great site, just that the few hundred of people on here who submitted rank lists decided it was a bad fit for them.

 

[bad virus]

Irony

What a douche

Ian, just for the sake of your hard work, I would revert the list back to before you went public to ensure its veracity. You already had a big enough N before.

In regards to the Fatty Mcfatty pants stuff.

This is isnt your standard, hey is USC or Harbor number one thread. This thread just shows national trends of SDN posters. Who is this data useful too? People who read SDN. Does this list tell us which programs are the strongest 20? No, it tells SDN readers/posters, which programs seemed to be the most enjoyable for that population in the year 2012/2013.

There is absolutely no reason for anyone to get thee panty's in a wad because of Ians little side project.

 

[fahimaz7]

So i've been informed by PM that there are some apparently truly dumb people on the forum that are trying to get people together to screw up the spreadsheet.

1. That's some serious middle-school ish right there, I thought we were like, postgraduates.
2. Get a life, preferably one that doesn't involve messing with other people's stuff that they've invested a lot of time in.
3. The ROL is now closed for editing again.

To those who care to, you can still PM me your ROLs.

I'd post their names. Thanks again for keeping SDN interesting.

 

[DreamingTheLive]

Ian,

As I've said before, I think what you've created is pretty neat and it no doubt took a significant amount of thought/effort, of which I think is commendable.

I don't necessarily agree with how useful the list ultimately is, but so what, its just my personal opinion. Plus, I really don't care.

I'm a pretty sarcastic sob, but I feel a little guilty if any of my WV posts were misinterpreted. I am sure it's a great place, with good people and I'd hate for my comments to be interpreted as otherwise.

I'm sorry you're catching so much flak and even some personal attacks over such a harmless idea.

 

[ianjustlellis]

Bullying diminishes only those who do it.

Regardless, I've had a lot of fun, and, as a pretty new poster on SDN, have really enjoyed most of my interactions on here. I am, in hindsight, sorry that I used my real name as my username--pretty surprised to find out that apparently i've made some actual enemies over a silly rank list Nice to know that if I match in New York I'll probably run into nyerdoc sometime and wonder why this guy I just met seems to want to bust my balls...

 

[bad virus]

Bullying diminishes only those who do it.

Regardless, I've had a lot of fun, and, as a pretty new poster on SDN, have really enjoyed most of my interactions on here. I am, in hindsight, sorry that I used my real name as my username--pretty surprised to find out that apparently i've made some actual enemies over a silly rank list Nice to know that if I match in New York I'll probably run into nyerdoc sometime and wonder why this guy I just met seems to want to bust my balls...

Douche bags will be douche bags, and their insignificant slights in no way diminishes your good intentions. Time will show that your labor of love will not be seen as insignificant and well help many an applicant in the near future. Using your real name for posts shows that you are a man of honesty and courage and you should have no qualms over it.

Good luck in all your future endeavors and I would be honored to work side by side with some one like you in the near future, good luck and take care.

 

[ianjustlellis]

Thanks to everyone for their kind words!

If any stragglers want to send in their lists, I'll be happy to add them.

The list is now arranged geographically in its final configuration. At the end of the week I'll upload an attachment file so it doesn't get lost if I accidentally delete my google docs this year sometime.

God bless all, and may we all end up where we will be the happiest!

 

[nyerdoc]

Time will show that your labor of love will not be seen as insignificant and well help many an applicant in the near future. Using your real name for posts shows that you are a man of honesty and courage and you should have no qualms over it.

Good luck in all your future endeavors and I would be honored to work side by side with some one like you in the near future, good luck and take care.

 

[bad virus]

Lol

 

[ianjustlellis]

Lol

I'll admit, it got a laugh out of me too. Honeybadg"erdoc" certainly doesn't give a s***

 

[Futureecho]

Since lists have been certified for 2 weeks now the only ones with an incentive to pad the results would be people with ties to the programs. This will be one of the few pieces of data available on the web for participants in the 2014 match to determine the relative strengths of each program. I'm assuming ian was keeping an eye on submissions to verify they weren't coming from newly created accounts, residents, attendings, administrators etc.

If that's the case and these are genuine ROL's from genuine applicants then there is certainly some data to be gleaned. Although you can see from the % responding for each program that it's not even close to a random sampling. It would have been interesting to gather some aggregate data about the applicants along with the lists related to geographic location and scores on the steps so that we could see who this aggregate list represents.

 

[ianjustlellis]

Since lists have been certified for 2 weeks now the only ones with an incentive to pad the results would be people with ties to the programs. This will be one of the few pieces of data available on the web for participants in the 2014 match to determine the relative strengths of each program. I'm assuming ian was keeping an eye on submissions to verify they weren't coming from newly created accounts, residents, attendings, administrators etc.

If that's the case and these are genuine ROL's from genuine applicants then there is certainly some data to be gleaned. Although you can see from the % responding for each program that it's not even close to a random sampling. It would have been interesting to gather some aggregate data about the applicants along with the lists related to geographic location and scores on the steps so that we could see who this aggregate list represents.

A good idea for next year! now that the spreadsheet is in place, it should be easy for future classes to utilize/expand on the framework.