Hard to say... From what you're describing, it would really need to be within a clinical context and me seeing the patient and examining the airway. I would have no problem intubating this patient at the slightest concern for inhalation injury. You have to remember, it's not just the heat, it's all the other things... cyanide, aldehydes, chlorine, hydrocarbons, ad nauseum that can cause airway injury and could push them into a horrible pneumonitis or flash pulmonary edema, etc.. along with the obvious concern that there's soot in the airway and possibly supraglottic swelling. I don't think anyone would fault you for emergently intubating a patient where you had the slightest concern for airway protection. If I was ultimately going to transfer them, I'd have even less of a threshold. If you transfer, they look fine prior to transferring and then crump halfway to burn center, how do you defend that exactly? If you tube them and they do fine, and possibly would have done fine anyway, nobody is going to fault you for intubation because of an airway concern in a burn patient with soot in their mouth. That's how I see it, but I will admit I've seen a few patients from smoke filled environments that had soot on their face and possibly in their mouth, but relatively no cursory findings of a thermal insult to their upper airway.
I'm of the opinion that if you're going to take the time to do nasopharygoscopy to look for airway swelling because of suspicion of thermal insult, then you might as well tube them. There's bound to be some erythema and mild swelling from all the coughing and inhaled irritants alone so I doubt I'd be able to document "100% no evidence of airway swelling".
That's just me though. Obviously, I haven't been doing this as long as the other guys.