Will initial US applicants dip below 152?

[2021Doctor]

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[fiji128]

I say yes. I'm basing this off of the complete lack of chatter on the google doc spread sheet, which I'm sure correlates with applicant interest. I'm sure there are those on this forum that have better first hand knowledge regarding the number of applications their programs are seeing.

 

[brushbeamscanning]

We'll get a signal on Wednesday when each program finds out how many applied to their respective institution, I think probably <100.

 

[deleted941485]

Yeah I remember that spreadsheet being more lively than the actual forum. Makes you not want to even bother anymore

 

[Gfunk6]

Even if initial US applicants drops to 10, you know and I know that programs will fill up . . . by any means necessary.

 

[deleted941485]

Even if initial US applicants drops to 10, you know and I know that programs will fill up . . . by any means necessary.

Oh but but what about demonstrated interest?! Oh what about usmle scores and thank you letters and publications!!

 

[RickyScott]

Oh but but what about demonstrated interest?! Oh what about usmle scores and thank you letters and publications!!

And the gap year.

 

[medgator]

Even if initial US applicants drops to 10, you know and I know that programs will fill up . . . by any means necessary.

Not sure there are enough folks that pass the TOEFL and a criminal background check for that

 

[deleted941485]

Can we merge with Med onc already? I’m getting tired of the annual sob fest that is pure RO.

 

[fiji128]

Can we merge with Med onc already? I’m getting tired of the annual sob fest that is pure RO.

I can just imagine all the crushed egos if all the sodden formerly independent department chairs became lowly section chiefs.

 

[hal9k]

dont think med onc will want to merge with rad onc. merging with radiology is probably more realistic but wonder how many years the combined residency will take

 

[fiji128]

dont think med onc will want to merge with rad onc. merging with radiology is probably more realistic but wonder how many years the combined residency will take

One to two year fellowship after general radiology training. Many radiologist already do (acgme accredited) fellowships and this would be in line with that. As BC/BE radiologist would be the only applicants able to apply market forces would finally be able to play out in our labor market. I realize this is not a popular view point and would require a huge check of egos but such is the mess that the “leadership” has created.

 

[jondunn]

Can’t wait to see the numbers. I predict 125. Will have to see if this plays out nationally:

 

[seper]

I think Brian is up for a disappointment

 

[hal9k]

One to two year fellowship after general radiology training. Many radiologist already do (acgme accredited) fellowships and this would be in line with that. As BC/BE radiologist would be the only applicants able to apply market forces would finally be able to play out in our labor market. I realize this is not a popular view point and would require a huge check of egos but such is the mess that the “leadership” has created.

then what about rad onc who are already practicing? go back to do radiology fellowship?

 

[medgator]

then what about rad onc who are already practicing? go back to do radiology fellowship?

Most of us who've been out enough years are pretty well settled, but basically the chance of lateraling into an equivalent job in terms of pay, hours, structure, geography etc has disappeared/significantly been diminished.

This is really a bigger problem for more recent and soon to be graduating residents

 

[deleted941485]

Most of us who've been out enough years are pretty well settled, but basically lateraling into an equivalent job in terms of pay, hours, structure, geography etc have disappeared. This is really a bigger problem for more recent and soon to be graduating residents

Its gonna be painful either way. You can stay until the ship sinks if you're close to retirement or you can head back to retrain and eat the opportunity costs. Im only a few years out and it just isn't realistic that the job would even exist in its current form, desirable to work in its current form, or be its own freestanding specialty. So I guess im willing to stomach retraining if it means long run a better field with more options.

 

[SubserviantToABR]

Can’t wait to see the numbers. I predict 125. Will have to see if this plays out nationally:

I'll tell you. The PD at the place I currently work at is actively trying to recruit any medical student to look into the field, and I quote, "they need to get past the jobs' thing."

Said it before, and I'll say it again, they don't care about you, it's all about them. You're just a pawn in this game of theirs.

If I was a medical student, I would never look at this field unless there's a valid contract guaranteeing a job after residency.

 

[deleted941485]

I'll tell you. The PD at the place I currently work at is actively trying to recruit any medical student to look into the field, and I quote, "they need to get past the jobs' thing."

Said it before, and I'll say it again, they don't care about you, it's all about them. You're just a pawn in this game of theirs.

If I was a medical student, I would never look at this field unless there's a valid contract guaranteeing a job after residency.

God what a bunch of entitled needy med students - They need to get past making a living

 

[fiji128]

then what about rad onc who are already practicing? go back to do radiology fellowship?

Grandfathered in. I believe anyone who is a BC radiologist before like 1974 can practice rad onc if they choose. I’ve met a few of these old timers who started practicing rad onc without official rad onc residency training. Just basically got grandfathersed in after it became its own speciality.

 

[RadsRocks!]

A 2 year fellowship after radiology would be interesting IF there was a guarantee of >650k salary after completion for all graduates in any job market. It would be fun to be an “oncologic radiologist” where you or your coworkers ID patients with cancer based on imaging, immediately follow up with patients to explain results and this not depend on referrals from other specialties, then can begin treatment if indicated quickly and in concert with other specialties. I think people would consider that and I would too.

I am not sure why rad Onc didn’t do like nuclear medicine (now a branch of radiology that’s just 1 year fellowship instead of 3 year residency) and start this process.

 

[medgator]

A 2 year fellowship after radiology would be interesting IF there was a guarantee of >650k salary after completion for all graduates in any job market. It would be fun to be an “oncologic radiologist” where you or your coworkers ID patients with cancer based on imaging, immediately follow up with patients to explain results and this not depend on referrals from other specialties, then can begin treatment if indicated quickly and in concert with other specialties. I think people would consider that and I would too.

I am not sure why rad Onc didn’t do like nuclear medicine (now a branch of radiology that’s just 1 year fellowship instead of 3 year residency) and start this process.

Nuc med used to be it's own specialty it's pretty much dead... Only way to do nucs and have a viable job is off rads

 

[RadsRocks!]

Nuc med used to be it's own specialty it's pretty much dead... Only way to do nucs and have a viable job is off rads

Ya that’s why I’m saying that rad onc needs to just be a fellowship off rads too if y’all are struggling so much. Maybe this year will be the year the chairs start seeing it as an issue as well. I’m sorry they have been poor leaders.

 

[fiji128]

Ya that’s why I’m saying that rad onc needs to just be a fellowship off rads too if y’all are struggling so much. Maybe this year will be the year the chairs start seeing it as an issue as well. I’m sorry they have been poor leaders.

I think the field would have to essentially implode before our “leadership” would actually get on board with this idea. We are a decade plus from that happening in my estimation. There are still plenty of people at the top making tons of money who really don’t want any really changes.

 

[hal9k]

I think the field would have to essentially implode before our “leadership” would actually get on board with this idea. We are a decade plus from that happening in my estimation. There are still plenty of people at the top making tons of money who really don’t want any really changes.

i think sooner than that...med students have already figured it out..no way you can soap like this for a decade

 

[medgator]

i think sooner than that...med students have already figured it out..no way you can soap like this for a decade

They'll keep soaping... Have you seen the kind of applicants that got in during the early to mid 70s and again in the mid to late 90s?

 

[hal9k]

They'll keep soaping... Have you seen the kind of applicants that got in during the early to mid 70s and again in the mid to late 90s?

lol arent they mostly chairs or retired by now?

 

[RickyScott]

i think sooner than that...med students have already figured it out..no way you can soap like this for a decade

Just a few month ago on the panel with simul and bk, 2 million dollar (idiot) Lou said something to the effect: shame on us if medstudents know the job market better than us.

 

[GapCalc]

lol arent they mostly chairs or retired by now?

Shots fired

 

[fiji128]

By imploding I mean reimbursements going way down, tons of our current bread and butter cases going to 5 or 0 fractions, large departments with declining revenue year after year resulting in job cuts and small practice closures. I’d say a decade plus away from something like that playing out.

 

[medgator]

mostly chairs

Therein lies the problem

 

[ytcmrr]

PGY5 resident at what is considered a good program. Our chair wants to expand our residency program even though it is already difficult to rotate through all disease sites. We also do not have enough attendings to support more residents. There are two group of med students applying to rad onc right now: 1) stellar candidates who are too deep in and don't want to change specialties, 2) below average candidates who see rad onc as an easy out compared to other uncompetitive fields likes peds, path, FM. If I had to do it all over again, I would have done Med onc or ophtho. This field has really taken a hit, and all I see is talk and no action. By the time any action is taken, it will be too late. We will be like pathology and nuc med.

 

[medgator]

. We will be like pathology and nuc med.

Already starting to happen. Notice any decent looking job that's posted is looking for an experienced grad

 

[fiji128]

This declining interest in rad onc thing from US applicants has been going on for 3 and soon to be 4 years now. So not sure how great applicants got invested into rad onc without being fully aware of the profound issues facing the specialty. I would really question the judgement of anyone (who at least has options) willing to bet the next 25 years of their life on this.

 

[OTN]

PGY5 resident at what is considered a good program. Our chair wants to expand our residency program even though it is already difficult to rotate through all disease sites. We also do not have enough attendings to support more residents. There are two group of med students applying to rad onc right now: 1) stellar candidates who are too deep in and don't want to change specialties, 2) below average candidates who see rad onc as an easy out compared to other uncompetitive fields likes peds, path, FM. If I had to do it all over again, I would have done Med onc or ophtho. This field has really taken a hit, and all I see is talk and no action. By the time any action is taken, it will be too late. We will be like pathology and nuc med.

Any program looking to expand needs to be named and shamed with great haste.

 

[Neuronix]

Any program looking to expand needs to be named and shamed with great haste.

You expect a vulnerable PGY-5 to call their program out? Most programs are small. It's not hard to figure out or guess who people are if you have an axe to grind.

 

[RickyScott]

Any program looking to expand needs to be named and shamed with great haste.

Would love to know the ostensible reason for expanding. ( description of a good program rules out Columbia)

 

[fiji128]

Would love to know the ostensible reason for expanding. ( description of a good program rules out Columbia)

I will run and post the acgme program list again in a few months so any 2021 to 2022 expanders will be identified.

 

[evilbooyaa]

Would love to know the ostensible reason for expanding. ( description of a good program rules out Columbia)

PD at Columbia thought Columbia was a good program.

Everybody thinks their program is good.

But they don't know.... they don't know what makes an actually good program.

 

[jondunn]

what's the word? and word on the number?

is the field still ALIVE or do I need to start making masks with tape?

 

[w00tz]

what's the word? and word on the number?

is the field still ALIVE or do I need to start making masks with tape?

Would go ahead and order the tape. Maybe we can buy in bulk then splitsies to save money?

 

[Gfunk6]

Forget buying paper tape, I'm already looking at real estate in Zihuatanejo to figure out my exit strategy

 

[metallica81788]

Would go ahead and order the tape. Maybe we can buy in bulk then splitsies to save money?

Keep your tape I'm using all the extra penis clamps around here for immobilization. Ssssh don't tell anyone.

 

[deleted941485]

Would go ahead and order the tape. Maybe we can buy in bulk then splitsies to save money?

Oh that’s Value based care!

 

[medgator]

Oh that’s Value based care!

Wait for that Amazon warehouse sale

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Keep your tape I'm using all the extra penis clamps around here for immobilization. Ssssh don't tell anyone.

A penis clamp on each ear to keep head still to couch. Ears are mostly clean and quick spray after can reuse on a penis. Admin bean counters will love the idea

 

[brushbeamscanning]

Per program coordinator, about 25-30% drop in applications, maybe will end up being about 20% since it's day one. I'm at a mid-tier program - outside top 20.

 

[medgator]

Per program coordinator, about 25-30% drop in applications, maybe will end up being about 20% since it's day one. I'm at a mid-tier program - outside top 20.

Need moar drop. #0in2021

 

[CurbYourExpectations]

According to excel data I have from last year as of October 15th 2020 there were 152 US and Canadians that applied and 38 IMGs. Average program received approximately 100 applications.

The December 2020 data I have has 18 DOs, 114 MDs, 71 IMGs for a total of 203.

I also think this might be the last year that people were entering medschool while outlook on RadOnc was still top notch.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

I am hearing from a bird significant drop with even more IMGs. This is a “top” program with about 125ish total applications. Man this will be a great SOAP to watch while I bask in our field’s swamps. Get your sippy cups folks!