why you need a 35 to sleep well at night

[ewing]

I just crunched some numbers (as is my wont) and I have determined that to get a good night's sleep as a med school applicant, you should get a 35 on your MCAT. According to my calculations, this gives you an 80% chance of getting into medical school, which seems reasonable, considering that 20% pf the people who get a 35 might be crazy, criminal, or have low GPAs.

I reproduced my calculations in a thread in the MCAT room, http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=89503

I look forward to being proven wrong, as this seems pretty scary to me with my sub-35 score. I guess I could always teach undergrad stats if don't get into medical school.

Another fun stats link is this article:
http://www.savethematch.org/pdf/JAMA_Niederle_Roth_20031.pdf
which is a letter to JAMA by two economists who try to show that the Match does not affect resident or fellow salary. (courtesy of www.savethematch.org)

I know there are residencies that don't use the match, but you can't look at their salaries, since they are working in a pool where the wage is fixed by matched residencies. These guys, however, look at post-IM fellowship salaries, where you are competing with junior-attending salaries. Very slick! I still don't know if I agree with their conclusions, but they definitely did a nice bit of work.

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[HollyJ]

So why is 80% your magic number? What makes it substantially better than having a 74% chance? And on the other hand, why not say that you need a 40 to sleep at night? Surely they've got a better chance than the 35ers (although I'm not going to figure out exactly how much better of a chance, since I have a test that I'm supposed to be studying for).

Yeah, it'd be nice for everyone to have a 35, but it's kind of arbitrary to decide that that's what you NEED, especially with your own perfectly respectable score.

 

[gschl1234]

I'm quite impressed by your statistics but do you think that perhaps at some critical score adcoms begin to consier MCAT score less when comparing a 33 vs. a 35 vs. a 37 vs. a 40 and just look at the application as a whole? If admissions were primarily based on MCAT, and your numbers suggest this, why is the average matriculating student's MCAT (about 30) not higher?

 

[Bones2008]

While I agree with the two responses thus far, I feel it's worthy of mention that the average MCAT taker gets a 27 (9 on each subsection). That's just how the test is standardized.

 

[exmike]

Actually, the average TAKER gets a 24, the average APPLICANT gets a 27, the average MATRICULANT gets a 30.

Originally posted by Bones2008
While I agree with the two responses thus far, I feel it's worthy of mention that the average MCAT taker gets a 27 (9 on each subsection). That's just how the test is standardized.

 

[ewing]

Originally posted by gschl1234
If admissions were primarily based on MCAT, and your numbers suggest this, why is the average matriculating student's MCAT (about 30) not higher?

Although a high MCAT correlates with some other things (e.g. grades, motivation, interest in medicine, preparation for application, etc.), medical admission is based very heavily on MCAT. Think about it: if the top 30% of all testers automatically gained entry to medical school, and there were no other criteria, the median score would be a 31 (85th %ile is halfway between 70th and 99.99th). I'm too lazy to calculate the mean, but it wouldn't be that much higher...
Like I said, though, correlation does not imply causation, and stronger applicants (as measured by other scales) tend to have higher MCATs, anyway. It is really scary, though, when you think about how standardized tests mean so much in American higher education.

 

[Zweihander]

I want a p-value on those statistics!

 

[ewing]

Originally posted by Zweihander
I want a p-value on those statistics!

A p-value showing a significant difference between getting in with a 27 and a 33?

You might be talking about a confidence interval, but I'm too lazy to generate that for all of my calculations. Someone else could try, if s/he feels so inclined.

 

[jlee9531]

Originally posted by ewing
Although a high MCAT correlates with some other things (e.g. grades, motivation, interest in medicine, preparation for application, etc.), medical admission is based very heavily on MCAT. Think about it: if the top 30% of all testers automatically gained entry to medical school, and there were no other criteria, the median score would be a 31 (85th %ile is halfway between 70th and 99.99th). I'm too lazy to calculate the mean, but it wouldn't be that much higher...
Like I said, though, correlation does not imply causation, and stronger applicants (as measured by other scales) tend to have higher MCATs, anyway. It is really scary, though, when you think about how standardized tests mean so much in American higher education.

well unless you know how asian schools select which students get into school and which majors right out of high school using standardized tests...the american's emphasis on standardized tests is really nothing.

as students in america we can pick what major we want to study just as long we get into a college. asian students dont have that privilege...im glad med school at least take into account the applicant as a whole and not JUST numbers as it the case in other countries.

but then again, i think thats why the US produces the best doctors in the world.

 

[xanthines]

My school gave us a chart of previous applicants that got in. It was GPA vs MCAT and 80% of people with 3.5/30 were accepted. That doesn't seem so bad or off to me. Unless you're bad at interviewing or have weak EC's and LOR's, it's definitely not necessary to get a 35 on the MCAT.

-X

 

[fun8stuff]

So according to your calculations, what would be one's chances of getting accepted if they get a 30? ...just wondering...

 

[aphistis]

If someone used SDN as their sample population, they'd conclude, with dang near 100% confidence, that no pre-professional student <em>ever</em> sleeps at night, for fear that <em>they might not get into school</em>. Seriously, people, you're already shortening your lives thanks to job stress, and you're not even in <em>training</em> yet, much less doing the job.

 

[ewing]

Originally posted by fun8stuff
So according to your calculations, what would be one's chances of getting accepted if they get a 30? ...just wondering...

1363/2609 = 52.25%

Incidentally, it seems that there are some actual data to answer these questions in the MSAR. I think my estimations are pretty accurate, but I would be interested to hear some values from the tables in MSAR, if someone has one.

 

[fun8stuff]

I hate not having taken the MCAT yet!! It is the only thing that I am unsure about!!!

 

[Tezzie]

My MCAT is higher than 35. I have a few acceptances under my belt. Yet somehow i had a nightmare the other night about USC. Don't ask me what it was, i don't remember. But it kept me up for the rest of the night.

 

[topherius]

I rarely weigh in on these numbers threads because I think they're pointless, since none of us are on adcoms and can't know what anyone else is thinking...but...

If you have an otherwise strong package, getting a high MCAT score will help you, but you're still not guaranteed a spot in any given class.

If you have an otherwise weak package, getting a high MCAT score will help you, but you're still not guaranteed a spot in any given class.

If you have an otherwise strong package, getting a low MCAT score will hurt you, but you still might have a decent shot at a spot in any given class.

If you have an otherwise weak package, getting a low MCAT score will hurt you, but you still might have a shot (I'll stop short of saying a "decent" shot) at a spot in any given class.

Call me crazy, but it looks from those four scenarios like scores never guarantee an outcome in either direction. Okay, maybe "never" is a little excessive (I would guess that someone with a 4J will probably not get into any schools), but even with a 35+, you're not guaranteed to get in anywhere. I knew a girl with a 38R who got 18 interviews and no acceptances. Ouch!

I think the key to this is that many people, whether they admit it or not, often have a particular school in mind that they're shooting for (popular suspects include Harvard, Hopkins, UCSF, etc.) for which they think they need a high MCAT score to get into. I think the irony here is that those schools are often the ones that are hardest to predict! I'd advocate us all chilling out a bit and leaving our fretting to our nighmares (like Tezzie), when we can't control it anyway.

 

[rgporter]

Originally posted by Tezzie
My MCAT is higher than 35.

Ditto. And though I sleep like a baby, due to long hours at work, I spend the rest of my life worrying about what I will do if I don't get in. There is no magical score or wonder EC that will get you in.
I know, I have the aforementioned MCAT score, equivilent grades, and two years volunteer work in a third world country. I only recieved my first interview this month, and so far only three of the schools I've applied to have invited me to interview. In case your wondering I only applied to two top 10 schools, most of the rest are top 50, but two are ranked who knows where.
The ranking only matters very little to me, every one of the schools has something great, be it location or inovative education or both. I will consider myself lucky if I am accepted at any one of these institutions.
Being a doctor has been a goal of mine for years, I can only hope that I am given the chance, just like the rest of the pre-med population. I don't know what gets you into med school, but I doubt that the MCAT is as important as everyone thinks. Good luck to all, and please don't sell yourself short playing the number game. You'll drive yourself crazy for no reason.

 

[dcpark74]

last years MCAR reference book broke down the percentages of applicants accepted in terms of GPA, MCAT, age, etc.

bottom line: each affect the desired outcome, some more than others.

MCAT ~34 80% accepted (i got a 34, but a 27 my first time 7 yrs prior)
GPA ~3.75 80% (i had a sub 3.0)

According to these stats, i should not be in med school...but yet i am near the top of my class. (Because of my experience, if i were ever on an admissions committee, i would not throw away apps based on one category...which apparently 15 schools did to me.)Which goes to show that success in school depends on intrinsic characteristics such as determination, discipline, and perseverance.

 

[SoulRFlare]

I was wondering why I've had trouble sleeping lately...

 

[KarateGirl]

Originally posted by topherius
I knew a girl with a 38R who got 18 interviews and no acceptances. Ouch!

This ties in to what I was thinking about when I was reading this thread. The med school application process is just that--a process--with many steps. To say that a 35 MCAT score gives you an 80% chance of getting in is basically saying that doing well in step 2 is going to assure you attainment of step 5, which is a bit of a leap. As someone mentioned, correlation does not equal causation. If only it were that simple.

The final criterion is the interview. MCAT scores are only important insofar as they get your foot in the door and get you an invite. Once you get there, it's essentially an equal playing field. Everyone who interviews at a school is there because the adcomm deemed them qualified to study there from a credentials standpoint. From there on in, it's all about how well you present yourself.

So if you have a 40 MCAT and you don't interview well, IMO you should still be worried.

 

[md_hopeful21]

Originally posted by KarateGirl
This ties in to what I was thinking about when I was reading this thread. The med school application process is just that--a process--with many steps. To say that a 35 MCAT score gives you an 80% chance of getting in is basically saying that doing well in step 2 is going to assure you attainment of step 5, which is a bit of a leap. As someone mentioned, correlation does not equal causation. If only it were that simple.

The final criterion is the interview. MCAT scores are only important insofar as they get your foot in the door and get you an invite. Once you get there, it's essentially an equal playing field. Everyone who interviews at a school is there because the adcomm deemed them qualified to study there from a credentials standpoint. From there on in, it's all about how well you present yourself.

So if you have a 40 MCAT and you don't interview well, IMO you should still be worried.

That's simply not true. At the far majority of schools the interview is part of the package the admission committee looks at while deciding who to accept. And only very few schools give the interview as much a weight as the scores (unless they realize your a lunatic at the interview).

 

[Rendar5]

A school needs to believe that your philosophies match theirs, so interviews and personal statements are very important.

There are also LoR's that are important. I know getting important people to do LoR's is meaningless (a friend who got an LoR from the head of the anatomy department for one school did not get into that school. I think maybe it was becasue that department head didn't know him very well. And he was extremely bright and had a great MCAT score), but getting LoR's from people who know you well and have good things to say about you as a person is very meaningful.

Lastly, they need to be sure that you're interested in their school. This comes from secondaries and interviews.

Hell, I got a 39S MCAT, and all that's done is impress my school's pre-med committee and 1 interviewer (out of 14 interviewers so far), and get me a few interviews (no acceptances yet). I'm depending on all that other stuff to get me into schools I'm interested in.

 

[rgporter]

For the record, it impressed me also. Para bens para voce.

 

[TripleDegree]

I think its a self-fulfilling prophecy ..... someone with a 35+ MCAT score probably is very smart, has decent grades, is committed to getting into medical school and therefore has good EC stuff etc etc.

I think that the MCAT is a good indicator of the quality of the overall application, which translates into increased chance of acceptance - rather than it being the *sole* determinant of success.

Just my opinion